September CET!

[Stratos Ferric]

That's not what I mean't to be honest. Using words makes the forum more interesting to read for one thing than just raw data.

I suppose as someone who deals in balancing things to the penny each day, precision is something that I prefer and numerical data provides that.

..

Ok fair enough - don't expect mild ramping on the CET threads to go uncommented on though in the same way that people who get carried away (more likely on the model thread) with cold ramping will not escape.

Stu,

a couple of points. I agree re precision, but my point is that it needs to be balanced with how reliable our calculation can be. Hence the people on here who quote their own monthly averages to 2d.p., whilst having instrumentation to only 1 d.p. (if that) are falling into a general trap for which Ilay the blame squarely at Microsoft: just as they have turned a load of artless people into desk-top publishing loose cannons, so with Excel they have inadvertently handed a loaded gun to some people who really ought not to be out on the number crunching street. To be fair, I wouldn't put you in this camp, certainly not the worst excesses (e.gs beiong the occasional long list of outcomes produced with each one given a potential % to <5% accuracy), but there does need to be a balance between the apparent accuracy implied in numbers, and the extent to which that accuracy really can be vindicated.

Re mild ramping: I don't ramp. I think we need a formal definition of ramping. There is a huge problem (and I am using that qualifying adjective quite deliberately) on this board with the cold majority attacking anyone who doesn't support their often unfounded optimism. As and when it looks cold I willingly say so: if this weren't the case then my periodic updates on the CET projection would contain a skew, even a cursory review will show this not to be the case. What I will do is say what I think is going to happen, and why. This latter, for me, is a crucial difference. A ramper - and again, this is only my interpretation - is somebody who says something will happen not because they can deduce that it will, or might; but because they hope it will. There's an important difference.

[Devon-Nelly]

I must say i'm surprised by how this months gone, not had one day were we havn't hit 20c yet, though i think it will struggle to hit 19c tommorow. As for the rest of the month i reckon it'll turn much cooler and showery, but i don't think we're in for a wet autumn this year nor a warm one.

[Stu_London]

Re mild ramping: I don't ramp. I think we need a formal definition of ramping. There is a huge problem (and I am using that qualifying adjective quite deliberately) on this board with the cold majority attacking anyone who doesn't support their often unfounded optimism. As and when it looks cold I willingly say so: if this weren't the case then my periodic updates on the CET projection would contain a skew, even a cursory review will show this not to be the case. What I will do is say what I think is going to happen, and why. This latter, for me, is a crucial difference. A ramper - and again, this is only my interpretation - is somebody who says something will happen not because they can deduce that it will, or might; but because they hope it will. There's an important difference.

The ramping issue is a contentious one.

My most annoying cases are the ones where marginal events are overhyped. I find that a lot of childish excitement goes into these forums around these times and technical analysis which is most interesting in marginal set ups tends to get lost.

Then there is issue of the forum member who has a bias. Tamara ( I hope she doesn't mind me using her as an example) has a cold retro-weather bias and is happy and proud of it as far as I can gather. Reading her posts are fine because I already have an expectation as to what their leaning will be and can adjust that to my own expectations, which mean the content can be and often is informative.

I think also, under the weight of recent trends their is a mild bias to your postings SF and that you may be closed to certain possibilities that do in fact remain (such as a month 1C below average - or a sub 2C month in winter, which statistically is easily within reach even if the more recent warming is permanant and progressive). The same comments that I made about Tamara can be applied here also.

[West is Best]

Well if the 0z GFS verifies then we're in for a real autumnal cooldown from end of the week onwards. Could be a month of very marked contrasts, and a sharp fall away in the CET is a distinct possibility. Almost anything could happen, but with the jet kicking south I still would by no means rule out a below average month.

[Stu_London]

Well if the 0z GFS verifies then we're in for a real autumnal cooldown from end of the week onwards. Could be a month of very marked contrasts, and a sharp fall away in the CET is a distinct possibility. Almost anything could happen, but with the jet kicking south I still would by no means rule out a below average month.

It does look a cool run indeed

Latest Manley figure to the 9th September from www.climate-uk.com

15.6C

All downhill from here however

[Rollo]

The ramping issue is a contentious one.

My most annoying cases are the ones where marginal events are overhyped. I find that a lot of childish excitement goes into these forums around these times and technical analysis which is most interesting in marginal set ups tends to get lost.

Then there is issue of the forum member who has a bias. Tamara ( I hope she doesn't mind me using her as an example) has a cold retro-weather bias and is happy and proud of it as far as I can gather. Reading her posts are fine because I already have an expectation as to what their leaning will be and can adjust that to my own expectations, which mean the content can be and often is informative.

I think also, under the weight of recent trends their is a mild bias to your postings SF and that you may be closed to certain possibilities that do in fact remain (such as a month 1C below average - or a sub 2C month in winter, which statistically is easily within reach even if the more recent warming is permanant and progressive). The same comments that I made about Tamara can be applied here also.

What you say may well be true but if posters have a bias towards the weather type they prefer sobeit. To me it seems only natural that this should be the case ,the problem arises when posters go "over the top" so to speak. As an example given the rare occasion when the "beast from the east" does threaten the country the snow starved section get overexcited and the thing gets overhyped-I believe this is human nature.

[Lettucing Gutted]

Could be a month of very marked contrasts, and a sharp fall away in the CET is a distinct possibility.

September 1919 is the September that has seen the most dramatic contrast between the first and second halves. The first week of September 1919 had 30C+ heat in Northants.

Yet there was SNOW in the third week at low levels in Northern England just before autumn equinox on the morning of the 20th September 1919.

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley..._in_septemb.htm

[DR Hosking]

I must say i'm surprised by how this months gone, not had one day were we havn't hit 20c yet, though i think it will struggle to hit 19c tommorow. As for the rest of the month i reckon it'll turn much cooler and showery, but i don't think we're in for a wet autumn this year nor a warm one.

Yes, probably hit 20 somewhere every day this month. However not necessarily in the CET. My local official station at Pitsford about 15 miles outside the CET we have not hit 20c on 3 occasions this month, including Saturday when the high was only 16.5c. So despite the generally observed to be mild high pressure we have, its not wall to wall sunshine and warm temps. Saturday was dull and cool here.

[Stratos Ferric]

The ramping issue is a contentious one.

I think also, under the weight of recent trends their is a mild bias to your postings SF and that you may be closed to certain possibilities that do in fact remain (such as a month 1C below average - or a sub 2C month in winter, which statistically is easily within reach even if the more recent warming is permanant and progressive). The same comments that I made about Tamara can be applied here also.

How anyone can suggest that anybody who lives in, say, Hastings might be biased is beyond me. Fey on you. Have you checked with Osborne.

You might like to produce the statistical proof that says a sub 2C month is still possible (I think, actually, the article was sub 1C, which is a dramatically different proposition) seeing as you're so confident. As and when I return to the issue be assured that, as I always do, I will make the case. I think (though I'd have to check) that in the past I haven't said it couldn't happen, merely that as things are it would be a truly exceptional event. However, since it is also such a popular download, and as you're goading me so nicely, just for you I will update the analysis and reassess ahead of this coming winter.

[eddie]

September 1919 is the September that has seen the most dramatic contrast between the first and second halves. The first week of September 1919 had 30C+ heat in Northants.

Yet there was SNOW in the third week at low levels in Northern England just before autumn equinox on the morning of the 20th September 1919.

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley..._in_septemb.htm

This graphs shows how the September CET is looking according to Hadley and I have thrown in 1919 for good measure...

Edited September 10, 2007 by eddie

[West is Best]

This graphs shows how the September CET is looking according to Hadley and I have thrown in 1919 for good measure...

You don't by any chance have the ability to re-load that with last September (2006) in do you? Would make interesting viewing to see the record September thrown into the equation.

Don't worry if not!

[eddie]

You don't by any chance have the ability to re-load that with last September (2006) in do you? Would make interesting viewing to see the record September thrown into the equation.

Don't worry if not!

There you go...

[DR Hosking]

amazing how last year after the 10th the month did not appear to get any cooler! My daughters Christening was on the 20th September last year and that was a glorious hot day with temperatures of 24 degrees!

[West is Best]

There you go...

Wow - many thanks! Amazing month last year.

[Don]

Wow - many thanks! Amazing month last year.

Awful month!!

[acbrixton]

Stu,

Re mild ramping: I don't ramp. I think we need a formal definition of ramping. There is a huge problem (and I am using that qualifying adjective quite deliberately) on this board with the cold majority attacking anyone who doesn't support their often unfounded optimism. As and when it looks cold I willingly say so: if this weren't the case then my periodic updates on the CET projection would contain a skew, even a cursory review will show this not to be the case. What I will do is say what I think is going to happen, and why. This latter, for me, is a crucial difference. A ramper - and again, this is only my interpretation - is somebody who says something will happen not because they can deduce that it will, or might; but because they hope it will. There's an important difference.

SF I agree that we need to define 'ramping' but disagree with the definition you proceed to give.

I think that it would be useful to try to distinguish 'hopecasting' from 'ramping'. The definition you give above is better suited to the former phenomenon. 'Ramping' is a more pernicious and subtle matter as it is based, at least nominally, on actual of predicted data, however shaky, limited, selective or misinterpreted.

regards

ACB

[damianslaw]

Awful month!!

I agree last September was in my opinion awful, it just stayed permanently warm. At least this month looks like it is going to progressively cool down, I was beginning to worry that a repeat was on show this month, but alas looking at the models today I have confidence that such a repeat is dead and buried, thank goodness

[Stratos Ferric]

...

All downhill from here however

Possible, though I doubt it very much.

[West is Best]

Latest Manley figure to the 9th September from www.climate-uk.com

15.6C

All downhill from here however

Manley rose to 15.7C yesterday Stu thanks to the low minima the night before. I expect there will be a dip for a couple of days before another possible rise around Thursday.

[Stu_London]

15.6C

All downhill from here however

Or maybe not B) B) :lol:

Cold last night though - so I think a drop is likely tomorrow

[Stratos Ferric]

Or maybe not

Cold last night though - so I think a drop is likely tomorrow

I think it's likely to oscillate for a while; certainly don't see major movements either way for the next few days. I'm also still fancying a warm, and certainly generally settled, run to come though. September may well be more notable for dryness than anything else. What price an unusually dry autumn to follow the wet summer?

[Stu_London]

I think it's likely to oscillate for a while; certainly don't see major movements either way for the next few days. I'm also still fancying a warm, and certainly generally settled, run to come though. September may well be more notable for dryness than anything else. What price an unusually dry autumn to follow the wet summer?

It does indeed look dry - even these phantom northerlies will have HP to our west meaning coastal showers and maybe the odd trough.

As for the CET, I was suprised to see a rise. I think we will end the month at least a degree south of where we are now however.

[Lettucing Gutted]

It does indeed look dry - even these phantom northerlies will have HP to our west meaning coastal showers and maybe the odd trough.

As for the CET, I was surprised to see a rise. I think we will end the month at least a degree south of where we are now however.

"Phantom Northerlies?"

Oh no another downgraded northerly. More boring mild weather.

[Don]

It does indeed look dry - even these phantom northerlies will have HP to our west meaning coastal showers and maybe the odd trough.

As for the CET, I was suprised to see a rise. I think we will end the month at least a degree south of where we are now however.

Well, if we end up a degree south of where we are now, that would make my CET prediction for this month pretty much spot on! You never know.

[The PIT]

Apart from one or two cold nights day time temps are going to be quite good on the whole so at the present time it's looking looking a very mild month coming up for us anyway. Around +1C to +2C but probably a lower differance in the CET zone say 0.5C to 1C above normal.

Also a very dry month which I think kills any chances of our station recording the wettest ever year.