September CET!

[SP1986]

By the way, I'm pretty sure Philip Eden has argued somewhere (on here actually I think) that anything within 0.2C is average. Don't shoot me - I'm only saying what he once said, and if you want to call it above average I'm not going to fight. Just glad that at long long last we've had an autumnal September with sub-14C.

Welcome back Autumn: my long lost friend!

It is average by nature thats quite right, nothing remarkable though in terms of cold or warmth - A month slightly statistically above average. Stats dont tell the story though, a warmish start (it didnt really have to break its neck in terms of warmth though), then neck breaking effort of cold (quite potent too)

[Don]

Well Hadley have confirmed as 13.8*C for the September 2007 CET. Certainly not what you would call a cool September, but one comfort is that it bucked the trend of recent years a bit. Philip Eden points out that it was the fourth most northerly September in 135 years of records, and yet it still ended up a shade above average for the CET, so post 1997 Stage 2 GW UK is well and truly still with us IMO. Sep 2007 should have had, given the synoptics, a far lower CET than it actually had. Logic would have suggested that it should have been a proper cool September at least like 1993 (12.4) or even 1986 (11.3), but yet again it wasn't and failed to produce the negative anomalies in the CET that it ought to have done. August 2007, despite having frequent northerly winds and being the third or fourth most northerly on record should have been cooler than it actually was, like the 14.6 in 1993 or possibly cooler still, but it wasn't.

Anyone thinking or saying that the last three months are a break in the post 1997 GW UK is deluding themselves when the synoptics of Aug and Sep 2007 should have produced much cooler CETs than they actually did, so it still seems in this issue that it looks almost impossible that we will ever get a winter like 1995-96 let alone a truly severe one.

Don't forget that March 2006 produced a CET 0.8C below the 1961-90 average and 1.4C below the 1971-00 and that had a very mild final week too. I know it's only one month, but it shows that cold months are still possible with the right synoptics. Therefore I think it would still be quite possible to get a 1995-96 Winter, although a severe may be pushing it a bit these days.

[J10]

We use the Manley for the comp though, which came in at 13.9 didn't it?

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Manley has indeed come in at 13.9c.

This means 5 people got it spot on, so a big to dancc, snowyowl9, sundog, damianslaw and Blast From the past.

Overall, Bottesford stays in the lead, with Beng staying 2nd, Terminal Moraine tops out the podium (up from 8th).

Snowyowl9 moves up to 10th from 21st, sundog is up to 23rd from 35th and Finally Blast From the past is up to 32nd from 40th.

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[sundog]

i started off badly this year but im seem to be getting better at this

[Guest Mike W]

I belive we had a thundersnow event in the west country especially in places like Bristol, Swindon, Bath and surrounding and in between areas etc in early January 2004. I think it was a month later in late February [26th I think] we had an even more notable snowfall which disappeared the following day.

[SP1986]

I belive we had a thundersnow event in the west country especially in places like Bristol, Swindon, Bath and surrounding and in between areas etc in early January 2004. I think it was a month later in late February [26th I think] we had an even more notable snowfall which disappeared the following day.

28th Feb I think it was, something clicks there (the 28th), remarkable event, temperature fell from 7C to -2C in 10 mins - one of the most amazing events ive ever witnessed.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The thundersnow event was 28 January 2004, when temperature falls like Stephen Prudence described were a widespread event, and resulted in the thundersnow.

Late February 2004 did have heavy snowstorms in many parts, which tended to melt in the sun during the day as the northerly, while cold, was not exceptionally so.

I'd call September 2007 'near average' but there will be regional variation- parts of the country will be more like 'slightly above average'.

[NorthantsSnow]

Manley has indeed come in at 13.9c.

This means 5 people got it spot on, so a big :wacko: to dancc, snowyowl9, sundog, damianslaw and Blast From the past.

Thank you very much!

When I saw that Hadley had ended up on 13.8, I was gutted. I wasn't aware that you went with the Manley figure.

I really am chuffed though. I have only entered the CET comp three times, and aside from this one which I got spot on, my March prediction was only 0.1 out. I was way off with my August prediction though :huh:

I would rather my October CET is way off too, otherwise we're in for a very mild October

[Mammatus]

I'd call September 2007 'near average' but there will be regional variation- parts of the country will be more like 'slightly above average'.

Hi Ian, that's very true. Wendy on Anglia weather stated that East Anglians have enjoyed an above average month temperature wise with +1C above the September average. I can only put this down to warmer nights compared with areas in CET zone. Often were nights +4C - +8C in the midlands whilst we were getting mins of +6C - +10C.

Mammatus

Edited October 1, 2007 by Mammatus

[summer blizzard]

I'm quite pleased with recent performances, in the past six months, only July was more than 0.7C out from my prediction.

[Snowyowl9]

Manley has indeed come in at 13.9c.

This means 5 people got it spot on, so a big :wacko: to dancc, snowyowl9, sundog, damianslaw and Blast From the past.

Overall, Bottesford stays in the lead, with Beng staying 2nd, Terminal Moraine tops out the podium (up from 8th).

Snowyowl9 moves up to 10th from 21st, sundog is up to 23rd from 35th and Finally Blast From the past is up to 32nd from 40th.

Oh wow got september dead on!!! congrats to all those names mentioned including West in best for giving us very enjoyable reading and sticking to his guns saying a below ave 14c month.

Nice to see this september has bucked the trend to much cooler after a run of warm coolest since 2001.

Some high climbers there on this months top 40. :huh:

I`ve done well this summer it seems expect I`ll be way out over winter.

[osmposm]

I certainly doubted we'd get sub 14: the only think that I think I dismissed out of hand, however, was the sub par month: and we haven't gone sub par.

This is, of course, ultimately a semantic argument, SF, but what you said on 15th Sept was ".....nor can I see any chance now of us getting under 14C this month....".

You couldn't see ANY chance - I'm afraid that in my book that is more than expressing doubt !! My god, you don't half wriggle sometimes when you're reminded of unwise former assertions.......

[damianslaw]

Thank you very much!

When I saw that Hadley had ended up on 13.8, I was gutted. I wasn't aware that you went with the Manley figure.

I really am chuffed though. I have only entered the CET comp three times, and aside from this one which I got spot on, my March prediction was only 0.1 out. I was way off with my August prediction though :wacko:

I would rather my October CET is way off too, otherwise we're in for a very mild October :huh:

Me too, really surprised to see the final figure of 13.9 I was sure it was going to be 14. Like you I have only entered 3 times, so preety pleased with myself.

[West is Best]

You couldn't see ANY chance - I'm afraid that in my book that is more than expressing doubt !! My god, you don't half wriggle sometimes when you're reminded of unwise former assertions.......

:wacko:

As an aside, I once had a colleague who loved dishing out attacks on other academics. Then one day he received a scathing review and was incredulous and angry.

[PersianPaladin]

The thundersnow event was 28 January 2004, when temperature falls like Stephen Prudence described were a widespread event, and resulted in the thundersnow.

Late February 2004 did have heavy snowstorms in many parts, which tended to melt in the sun during the day as the northerly, while cold, was not exceptionally so.

I'd call September 2007 'near average' but there will be regional variation- parts of the country will be more like 'slightly above average'.

Sadly I never witnessed that event.

I was in Birmingham at the time.

[snowsure]

The thundersnow event was 28 January 2004, when temperature falls like Stephen Prudence described were a widespread event, and resulted in the thundersnow.

Late February 2004 did have heavy snowstorms in many parts, which tended to melt in the sun during the day as the northerly, while cold, was not exceptionally so.

I'd call September 2007 'near average' but there will be regional variation- parts of the country will be more like 'slightly above average'.

My weather records show wintry with heavy snow 26th - 30th Jan 2004 and also 5cm snow on 25/2/04 and heavy snow on 27th/2/04, staying on the ground for 4 days due to the cold.

[memories of 63]

Congrats to Rollo and Tribe3000 for getting their prediction bang on 13.8c. Honourable mentions to Memories of 63, Snow-Man2006, Norrance, Snowyowl9, Sundog, DamianSlaw, BFTP, Dancc, Steve B, Phil n.warks, and ME (!!) for getting within 0.2c.

Is the comp not running this month? I need to crawl up that leaderboard!!

I've never had an honourable mention before :lol: :lol:

[Mr Sleet]

This is, of course, ultimately a semantic argument, SF, but what you said on 15th Sept was ".....nor can I see any chance now of us getting under 14C this month....".

You couldn't see ANY chance - I'm afraid that in my book that is more than expressing doubt !! My god, you don't half wriggle sometimes when you're reminded of unwise former assertions.......

I would agree that the phrase " I don't see any chance" means that there is "no chance" so that is ruling it out. You should know by now SF that nothing goes umissed on this forum.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Ok. so SF got it wrong and WiB guessed right.

[Mr Sleet]

Ok. so SF got it wrong and WiB guessed right.

Yes it was an accurate guess by WIB.

[Stratos Ferric]

This is, of course, ultimately a semantic argument, SF, but what you said on 15th Sept was ".....nor can I see any chance now of us getting under 14C this month....".

You couldn't see ANY chance - I'm afraid that in my book that is more than expressing doubt !! My god, you don't half wriggle sometimes when you're reminded of unwise former assertions.......

Osm, you're quite right. I did say that I 'didn't think' I had. It was kind of you to go back for me and check and I humbly apologise to you, and the - for the moment at least - God of forward projection WiB.

I would agree that the phrase " I don't see any chance" means that there is "no chance" so that is ruling it out. You should know by now SF that nothing goes umissed on this forum.

I have no problem with that at all, so long as it's one rule for all!

[Weather-history]

Just one interesting thing of note is that it is the third consecutive below average 2nd half to a month.

Infact, its the 4th below average 2nd half of the month for this year. (March was the other).

Also May and June's second halves were very close to average.

So since April, the second half to each month has been lacking any prolonged warmth.

Even January had a cooler second half compared to the first.

[Don]

Just one interesting thing of note is that it is the third consecutive below average 2nd half to a month.

Infact, its the 4th below average 2nd half of the month for this year. (March was the other).

Also May and June's second halves were very close to average.

So since April, the second half to each month has been lacking any prolonged warmth.

Even January had a cooler second half compared to the first.

Has this not been the general trend to have colder second half months (apart from the exceptionally warm period of May 2006 to April 2007), of the last few years. Months like February 2004, June 2004 and February 2005 just to name a few?

[The PIT]

Why does SF always get rubbish in his quotes???? Been bugging me for ages.

[Optimus Prime]

The GFS indicates the period 2nd-7th will have an average CET temperature of 12.0c which is 0.5c above normal for the first half of October. Mean maxima looks above while Minima below.

By the 7th the CET should be around 12.1c so around normal for the first half of October.