Latest Antarctic Ice Reports

[Gray-Wolf]

So , that's 'phase 1' of the southern summer ablation nigh on complete. The only areas of concentrated ice are the Weddell sea and the Ross Sea. As we've been witnessing the coastal fringes are now near enough ice free with the inlets and bays now in fragmentation. As such we may as well leave off the images until after Christmas when we should see some more ice shelf collapses in Pine island,East Getz,Abbot Wilkins LarsenC,Riiser-Larsen and of course Ross.

Of course if I spot anything interesting as we move on I will update the thread!

Have fun in the meantime,

Ian.

[West is Best]

Hi West, nice to see you up here again, long time no see?

As I've just replied 'down below' I've asked our man Robert Grubine down at Mcmurdo for some clarification on this little spat (now we're into full melt down south) as to the 'official view on max. ice extents and also on the rate of this years ablation. I've told him you're having difficulty accepting the view of the experts so you may have a little personal 'explaination' (if you're lucky) as to where you're going wrong. Nothing like a teacher to put you right eh?

This comes across as facetious, supercillious and patronising. Posts like this really don't help your cause. Do you realise how badly you tarnishe the image of AGW? Rather than empirical and intellectual it comes across as covering up examinations of truth.

You can text or email whomsoever you want however. I'll stick to peer reviewed papers and articles on academic sites rather than the mobile text message approach to AGW.

So melting ice ,both at the north and south poles, is no indicator of global warming (as forced by our insistance on burning 'fossil fuels') but is an indicator of...........what exactly?

The word I used was proof. Anyone who relies on ice melt, which clearly isn't following your script down south, much to your inconvenience, is laying a foundation based on slush.

[Gray-Wolf]

So if Mr Grubine were to release a paper (and he obviously has input in many papers on both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice being the world leading authority on sea ice formation/ablation) you'd read it and take it onboard but if he spoke with you direct (via text or E-mail) you'd ignore him?

I'm being awfully thick again, as thick as a thick thing hit with the 'thick stick' so I think you'll need to explain why this reluctance to listen to 'experts' first hand makes for sound practice.

Edited October 16, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I fail to see how any of the last few posts are reporting on Antarctic Ice. Instead, to me, they seem like "debating" points for the sake of it, which isn't the point of this thread. It's becoming an increasing feature of the forum at the moment and I'm getting bored of it. Can we please have some threads which are imformative an welcoming with no hint of animosity?

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Oon!

I do feel we need to have some 'understanding' of the processes at work down there and obviously the 'start point' for the seasonal melt (fragmentation of contiguous ice) is important and as such we all need to find some level of agreement on such.

As it stands we have a 3 week difference of opinion as to when the first signs of this years melt were and this impacts upon whether we witnessed a continuation in ice extent (growth) into the third week of September or whether (as I maintain and have supported with visual 'evidence') we were well into this years ablation of the sea ice by then.

The posts you highlight are concerning this issue and though I feel that the 'watchable' period of this years melt is at an end it would still be nice to reach some kind of consensus on our 'start point/max. ice extent for this season. I have recently approached Mr Grubine at Mcmurdo (being the world leader in this field) for guidance in an attempt to have some 'definitive answer' to the quandary and we now await his reply.

[oldsnowywizard]

off topic..

i have to say this thread is quite interesting and both AFT and GW have got some interesting points and both are using different sources of info and have different viewpoints, which of course is going to lead to some slightly "heated" (in the loosest sense) debates. perhaps if people who post can stick to the topic and provide links to the sources used with perhaps a few nicely worded queries?

back on topic.. what an amazing drop in ice levels.

[Gray-Wolf]

High oldsnowywizard! only amazing if they had fallen back from record levels. if, on the other hand they had been falling since around Aug 28th then it'd be progressing at about the speed you's expect!

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

back on topic.. what an amazing drop in ice levels.

That's what happens after a winter of record sea ice.

BTW I agree with OON. I feel slighly uncomfortable posting to this thread as there seems to be no agreement on what sources one is allowed to cite for Antarctic sea ice reports.

If we could all agree that NASA sea ice charts are somewhat reliable enough for a thread of this nature I think we could get along, even if we might have some different interpretations on what the ice will do in subsequent days and weeks.

[Gray-Wolf]

As oft said before nobody stops anybody using anything in their personal exploration of ice formation/ablation. Some folk trust images compiled by people pawing over images and adding dots to grids ,some folk prefer pawing over images for themselves.

[Gray-Wolf]

As an add on to the above. Ive now E-mailed William Chapman to get his take on the ice extent record, I hope this will be an end to the 'discrepencies' about this years ice levels and mean an end to the sorts of exchanges Paul and Oon aren't keen on!

[Gray-Wolf]

No reply yet from C.T. Must be checking software or some such! Seeing as folk like to put such stead in the site I've been taking the odd peek (waiting for '0 anomaly' to be reached) . Today, according to their plots, '0 anomaly' of southern ice exists, a full month ahead of the same state last year! Pretty good going for Antarctic ablation if we had a record ice extent don't you think?

So, how did it manage this incredible melt? Have we had any reports of unseasonably warm weather down there? Was the ice thinner than they thought and melted back real quick? or possibly, just possibly it has been melting since around aug 28th?

What'dya think guys?

Edited October 19, 2007 by Gray-Wolf

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

The chart you post shows the positive anomaly has increased over the last couple of days.

[Gray-Wolf]

The chart you post shows the positive anomaly has increased over the last couple of days.

Soooo, now we're approaching early summer down there and daylight length (and solar input) is well above 12hrs per day the ice is starting to grow? D'ya think it likely or d'ya think it more likely that portions of Continental glacier snout/shelf break up may be involved here?

I've no idea why you 'wish' for such things but there does see to be a pattern emerging here.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

No, you have misread the chart and obviously have no conception of what an "anomaly" is either.

[Gray-Wolf]

Don't worry A.F. I'm sure your man Bill will clear things up.......when he finally gets back to us!

[Gray-Wolf]

And how do our C.T 'lines' look today?. Kinda jump around that 'ole scale' there Dontcha think? (See above for ref.)

The more I look at the graphs, as a 'tool, the less enamoured I am with it.

I'm glad our attentions were drawn to this though,every 'little' helps!

[Gray-Wolf]

Still no word from C.T.

Couple of images for today

This is at the 4km resolution showing the Sabrina coast and another storm off shore.

Back to 150m resolution! this is a chunk of 'multiyear' shelf or glacier adrift squishing the remnants of the single year as it goes.

even through the 'murk' you can see the state of melt most of the pack is in now.

All images are courtesy of MODIS and are from yeaterday (21st).

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

The positive sea ice anomaly has increased.

Greater sea ice retention than previous years around Antarctica continues into early spring.

Ed: for below

This calving event is part of a natural cyclic process. A 34-year long study of the glacier has shown that a large iceberg breaks off roughly every 5-10 years. The last was in 2001.

Edited October 22, 2007 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[PK2]

Grey Wolf,

I'm wondering if you have any pictures of this -

British Antarctic Survey (BAS) scientists have spotted a huge iceberg, which has broken off from Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica. The iceberg, which is 34 km long by 20 km wide, covers an area nearly half the size of Greater London.

. I hope no one minds me asking this, and I know that it is a small thing relative to the size of the antarctic and therefore not relevant to charts from NASA et al.

[Gray-Wolf]

Grey Wolf,

I'm wondering if you have any pictures of this - . I hope no one minds me asking this, and I know that it is a small thing relative to the size of the antarctic and therefore not relevant to charts from NASA et al.

We'd seen some shelf calving 'crevasses' in early sept. with the early pack fragmentation. I will certainly take a look around after I've taken the kiddies to the illuminations (it won't have gone far!).

I'm not taken with their 'cycle' though ,not amid the extra attention Abbot,Pine island, East and west Getz have been having for the past 3 or so years. If you look back to the NASA upland melt maps you'll see the other 'strong' areas of melt are at the rear of this suite of Glaciers/shelfs. The yanks are certainly up for a Peninsula type collapse. Our place in the 34 year cycle may just prove to be an un/Fortunate happenstance allowing the collapse to occur.

The melt/erosion of the shelfs across the continent to there would mean (with pine G.,Getz, and Abbot gone) only the Weddell and Ross left with significant ice into Spring in future years opening another 'fridge door' onto the W.A.I.S. around from the Peninsula.

[Gray-Wolf]

I've scanned around and not found any clear shots of the Berg yet.

I have noted C.T. are continuing to have ice extent/anomalies growing when there is demonstrably less ice and ice cover from when their line last touched the point (even Ross and Weddell are in full melt now with fragmentation throughout their basins..........hang on, maybe they've mistaken the fragmentation/relaxation of those ice bodies as 'new growth'? ......wouldn't be the first time!)

I am having serious doubts about last years 'intake' and their abilities to run the site! LOL

[PK2]

I've scanned around and not found any clear shots of the Berg yet.

Thanks GW. I'm sure there will be plenty of images at some time unless it "crashes" into the sea ice and "re-joins".

I'm not quite sure what you mean by 'their "cycle"' (from quote below) though. Could you explain further for me

I'm not taken with their 'cycle' though

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm not quite sure what you mean by 'their "cycle"' (from quote below) though. Could you explain further for me

I'm sorry PK2, I'm mistaken in my reply to A.F.! It was a 34yr study showing calving cycles of 5 -10yrs (not that I can recal any big bergs falling off Pine Glacier since 97 -2002?).

The 'clips' we were helped to gave (me)the impression that BAS were writing off the big berg as 'just part of a cycle' , in fact it was A.F. wanting us to accept the same!!!

I'm even less inclined to see the calving as anything other than a result of the rapid changes going on around Pine Island now!!

As I've said any 'natural cycles' that increase the 'offloading of shelf/Glacier snouts' has to be a bad thing (like a 'naturally warm' summer ocer the arctic!).

[Gray-Wolf]

I found these west of Pine island. I also found this;

just below Pine on East Getz. If I'm not mistaken it won't be a 'meltwater pool' as A.F. is telling us all that the ice is growing down their (and at quite a rate according to some) so that only leaves the slumping off off the shelf area (not the seaward facing 'scallop' crack which has the pool at it's rear).

With the collapse of the ice pack so early and now the Pine island calving and with East Getz soon to follow I've started to wonder if we'll be treated to the news that Greenland has melted enough over summer to put a significant amount onto sea levels and this 'extra' height on swells is lifting up and breaking off shelf ice when the swell runs at 90 degrees to it?

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Sea ice currently 700k above average, just slightly more than this time in 2006