Latest Antarctic Ice Reports

[Gray-Wolf]

Yes, I did, and "& Co" is the operative phrase - they had specially (and Marjory) adapted cars, and a big support team to repair them when they broke down, and help dig through the impassable sections of ice/snow. Bit silly, really, but amusing enough when you've had enough beers.

Even sillier is that they rather avoided mentioning that they were only driving to the magnetic North Pole, not the geographic one which is around 500 miles away currently, I believe (and further north). And even sillier still, they drove to where the magnetic North Pole was in 1996, several hundred miles away (and well south) of where it actually was when they made their epic journey early last year.

(Sorry, this is absolutely nothing to do with the Antarctic, but I did think AFT's rapturous admiration for the exercise needed a splash of cold, icy water )

Thanks for that osmposm!

Shows you what can happen when folk choose to belive what they are 'shown' as opposed to what they can 'discover' through observation and study.

Edited January 11, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[oldsnowywizard]

Before the final analysis is published (and for the tastes and delectation of AFT) I'll repost my observations of what occurred in Aug 2007 in the Antarctic and highlight the occurrence with current studies.

Around Aug 25th Antarctic sea ice reached it's maximum for the year - Please provide Proof and a slow decline became apparent. Aug 27th-29th was the full moon and had the highest tides (apart from those 29 and a quarter days later). It would appear that the tide on the full moon disrupted the ice pack surrounding the antarctic continent. As we know the strong Katabatic winds that blow off Antarctica tends to push the pack ice away from the coast and out into the southern oceans. This is what occurred to the disrupted ice pack. totally agree that sea ice will be pushed away from the coast by winds, currents etc

If you are a purveyor of C.T. data you'll see that ice extent (and anomaly) increased by 2 million sq km over the next 3 weeks as the further limit of the ice was pushed further and further away from the coast. have you conacted CT to ask why? last month you posted an image which showed no sea ice at all really, which totally contradicted a numer of other sources! actually 2million grew over longer than 3 weeks... Could you not conceive that the proven negative anomolies in surface temps and the very cold ocean temps could mean that the ice growing period could have in fact peaked in Sep as indicated?

By October 23rd ( the 'spring tide') a berg about the size of greater London Calved from the Pine Glacier whilst still mid pack (as reported by B.A.S.) and is still 'ice logged'.did what?

By December both the coastal strip of the Weddell sea and the majority of the Ross sea were totally ice free (whilst ice extent 'masks' were showing over 50% ice cover) a simple 'look' would prove otherwise.Im sorry but you clearly didnt read my posts? the 50% is an average for Dec!! you based this against an image of early JAN! you have to compare like with like!

Be it my critical E-Mail,or many other critical E-Mails,in Dec. C.T. admitted a problem.

All of a sudden Antarctic ice (since mid Dec.) has undergone record ice loss. Agreed, an issue with Data, this obviously was the cause of the sudden loss, HOWEVER sea ice levels are still shown to be higher...

Whadya think?

GW please post evidence.

[Mondy]

Highest in over 30 years.

Edited January 11, 2008 by Mondy

[Gray-Wolf]

WARNING!

This is what I believe to have witnessed (and backed up with images) with this years melt.

To help highlight the 'discrepancies' compare the west Weddell sea ice extent as shown on C.T. with the images you can cull from the MODIS sat.s

As you can see from my above graphic the fragmentation event around Aug 27th led to a rapid growth (of 2 million sq km) in ice extent. I posted images through sept/Oct to show the process occurring as the fragmented ice 'relaxed outwards' (driven by the continental Katabatic winds) before melting in the southern ocean.

During my conversations with AFT I predicted that there would have to be a rapid melt as the C.T. records fought to catch up later in the season as the fragmented ice finally melted leaving gaping holes in the pack (as occurred).

The recent papers on Antarctic melt/Antarctic ocean warmth seem to confirm what I 'believe' I witnessed.

I hope this suffices OSW.

Edited January 14, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[oldsnowywizard]

so rather than a record amount of sea ice you are saying it was in fact the lowest amount of sea ice.. 14million sq kms... please provide proof that this was the case.

you could be right..but then again..

[Gray-Wolf]

A little bit of a crack in the Ross shelf seems intent on giving Scott and Mcmurdo bases a sea front property! Don't know how stable this will render their airstrip.

Here's Cyprus to the same resolution.

When I say 'little' I am being facetious........

EDIT: OSW Yup, I would imagine not only the lowest figure but , due to the reported warmth of the ocean down there, the thinnest! The only way that a 'tide' could fragment the whole of the coast is ;

1/ the sea level is significantly higher than when the ice attached to the shelves at the start of the winter freeze.

2/ The ice was thin enough for the spring tide to lift and fragment it.

Edited January 15, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[oldsnowywizard]

hmm..

the ross image is interesting it shows what looks to be large areas of sea ice still...?

the reported warmer seas? please again provide proof..

looking at Ncoda

seems only some areas of warmer anomoly temps... not suprising really considering the time of year down there....

unisys seems to show no real difference in sea surface temps really...

if its really the lowest then please provide proof that this is the case? or is this your opinion?

[Peter A]

A little bit of a crack in the Ross shelf seems intent on giving Scott and Mcmurdo bases a sea front property! Don't know how stable this will render their airstrip.

When I say 'little' I am being facetious........

Interesting image, is that a crack or a route opened up by icebreakers?

[Gray-Wolf]

hmm..

the ross image is interesting it shows what looks to be large areas of sea ice still...?

the reported warmer seas? please again provide proof..

looking at Ncoda

seems only some areas of warmer anomoly temps... not suprising really considering the time of year down there....

unisys seems to show no real difference in sea surface temps really...

if its really the lowest then please provide proof that this is the case? or is this your opinion?

Nicely cropped!

Here's the image from the 14th showing the ice edge and anom!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Hi GW.

Not sure what you mean by 'Nicely Cropped' to OSW?

Both show exactly the same thing.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi GW.

Not sure what you mean by 'Nicely Cropped' to OSW?

Both show exactly the same thing.

OSW's image doesn't show the relevant bit of coastline on Antarctica (doesn't show any Antarctic coastline in fact) nor does it show the 'cold water plume ' spreading out from the Ross Sea (again what we've been talking about). Hope this clears it up Chris B)

I seem to have let my excitement get away with me again (Mcmurdo crack) as the bases have had their first visit of the year from the supply ship. Shows you how good the detail on Modis is though! ( esp. if you upload the 250m resolution piccies and then use your viewer to zoom in further!).

Edited January 16, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

Here we go again.

Here is the Weddell sea East of the Peninsula (Larsen shelf)

and above is C.T's version of events.

Now ,though cloud blighted, you can see the coast of the Weddell sea and clear water.Further out you can see individual remnants of last years sea ice (rounded bergs) and clear water in between.

C.T. show 80%+ contiguous ice cover. Why?

[oldsnowywizard]

GW, first the sst image wasnt cropped its from netweather.. every single sst map i have seen shows different temps.. you simply cannot pick and choose the image that suits your argument... that goes for me as well!

second point.. how on earth can you see anything through that cloud? and what have we said about using sat photo images about showing sea ice clearly?

i hate to say it but i think i cant be bothered.. i have agreed to some of your points but not all of them. you have yet to provide concrete proof about your assumption of a record low sea ice down under... its getting a little annoying reading your completely biased views

[Gray-Wolf]

OSW this is the Ross sea (west) facing Mt Erebus/mt Terror Ross island (middle left) taken 14/1 /08 at 05:10 UTC at 1km resolution from the Aqua satellite (MODIS platforms).

I went back a few days as you appear to struggle with seeing dark water under stratoform cloud/fog.

You can point out your ice if you'd like please as I'm obviously interpreting 'live images' all wrong. Thanks for your guidance.

Ian.

Edited January 16, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Mondy]

Correct me if i'm wrong, but it is Summer time down there, yeah?

Take away your DIY graph from the previous page, you can match sea ice extent from Summer to Winter quite easily.

A hullabuloo abt nothing if you ask me.

[Mondy]

The amazing Antarctic water cycle

Water from the sea, evaporates into clouds, the clouds move over the continent and the water falls in the form of snow. That snow is then compacted into the icesheets, which in turn move toward the coast and in the form of glaciers and eventually become iceshelves. When pieces break off the iceshelf (icebeargs) and melt the water once again returns to the sea. Hence after tens of thousands of years the cycle is complete.

Amazing, isn't it?

http://www.70south.com/

[Gray-Wolf]

Cooo-ey, C.T. seem to reporting record ice ablation around the antarctic continent with over 6million sq km disappearing in under 4 weeks!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ............or not of course...............

[oldsnowywizard]

Cooo-ey, C.T. seem to reporting record ice ablation around the antarctic continent with over 6million sq km disappearing in under 4 weeks!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ............or not of course...............

NOBODY LIKES A WISEASS

of course there is melt its summer down there... Still Negative temp anomolies over Antarctica ... NOT FROM CT!...

I think we will end up just above last years level... but of course with your record minimum theory for winter.. that must mean that there will be no sea ice left at the minimum level that is to come.. right? as things are that simple.

[Chris Knight]

GW, Tides were mentioned a few posts back, including spring tides. The tides around Antarctica are peculiar - they have little tidal range, with a maximum of around 1.5 metres, sometimes as little as a few centimetres, between high and low tides during a single day. Also there is only one high tide and one low tide on most days.

The reason for this is that there is only a small effect by the solar tide (S2), and the major component of the Antarctic tide is due to the lunar (M2) component.

In effect the moon drags a swell of tide around the Southern Ocean each day as the Earth rotates, with the combined more northerly tidal variations causing the monthly amplitude swings. When the Antarctic tidal diurnal range is near minimum, the small S2 component becomes apparent, creating a small extra daily tide.

The tides for Ross Island around the full moon for the current and previous 3 months are shown here:

generated by WXTide version 2.4 by Michael Hopper http://www.wxtide32.com (GPL Freeware)

Note that the occurrence of the full moon bears little relationship to the highest tides, the peak tides lag a couple of days behind perigee.

perigee

Oct 26 11:52 356754 km ++ F+ 6h

Nov 24 0:13 357195 km + F- 14h

Dec 22 10:12 360816 km F-1d15h

Jan 19 8:40 366435 km F-3d 4h

Apparently the tidal component is a major mover of the Southern Ocean Current, greater than wind, or thermohaline flux, mixing both the saline content and the heat:

Typical tidal currents over most of the Weddell Sea are 2-10 times greater than mean flows associated with wind and thermohaline forcing. Tides therefore provide a significant fraction of the total oceanic kinetic energy, with a commensurately important influence on the oceanography of the region.

from TIDES IN THE WEDDELL SEA by Robin Robertson, Laurie Padman , and Gary D. Egbert

http://www.esr.org/antarctic/rpe98.html

So you may well be right in considering tides as having a major influence on the rapidity of Antarctic sea ice melt.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Cooo-ey, C.T. seem to reporting record ice ablation around the antarctic continent with over 6million sq km disappearing in under 4 weeks!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ............or not of course...............

Volcanoes beneath seem to explain that.....never mind GW, long live AGW :lol:

BFTP

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi BFTP!

I feel that any geothermal input may plat a great role in the 'de-icing' of areas of the southern continent after the surrounding 'girdle' of shelf ice/glacier snouts have been chipped away by the novel sea temp/upper tropospheric temps (as we witness in the northern hemisphere.

It doesn't matter much what temps are doing 2m above the ice, 2m below the ice ? well that'll prove to be a different matter!

Once 'unrestricted' we see how fast a glacier can spill out into the southern ocean. Put a good amount of lubrication below the sheet (be it sub-ice lake/stream/river/geothermal activity) and it flows up to 6 times faster than we are used to.

The giant 'folds' in the ice (as noted a few years back) play witness to rapid sloughing of the sheet (and the consequent subduction of the sheet to the rear) and so it should be no surprise when our tinkerings allows these 'natural' processes to take over.

A whole lot of water in a very short time.

Not good, not good at all.

[Chris Knight]

Before the final analysis is published (and for the tastes and delectation of AFT) I'll repost my observations of what occurred in Aug 2007 in the Antarctic and highlight the occurrence with current studies.

Around Aug 25th Antarctic sea ice reached it's maximum for the year and a slow decline became apparent. Aug 27th-29th was the full moon and had the highest tides (apart from those 29 and a quarter days later). It would appear that the tide on the full moon disrupted the ice pack surrounding the antarctic continent. As we know the strong Katabatic winds that blow off Antarctica tends to push the pack ice away from the coast and out into the southern oceans. This is what occurred to the disrupted ice pack.

If you are a purveyor of C.T. data you'll see that ice extent (and anomaly) increased by 2 million sq km over the next 3 weeks as the further limit of the ice was pushed further and further away from the coast.

By October 23rd ( the 'spring tide') a berg about the size of greater London Calved from the Pine Glacier whilst still mid pack (as reported by B.A.S.) and is still 'ice logged'.

By December both the coastal strip of the Weddell sea and the majority of the Ross sea were totally ice free (whilst ice extent 'masks' were showing over 50% ice cover) a simple 'look' would prove otherwise.

Be it my critical E-Mail,or many other critical E-Mails,in Dec. C.T. admitted a problem.

All of a sudden Antarctic ice (since mid Dec.) has undergone record ice loss.

Whadya think?

In my earlier post, the last strip of the tide charts show that around 23rd October 2007 Ross' tides were approaching a minimum, (in opposite phase to the spring tides in the north), and the following shows that August tides there were not high:

However, the SSTs for the Southern ocean started to show anomalies of -3 deg C around the ice in places - indicating that there was mixing with the colder waters under the sea ice, lasting until the end of the year, only recently beginning to return to less anomalous temperatures. I think this may indicate that tidal mixing, rather than fragmentation may have taken place, with landwards upwelling of warmer water, leading to the large polynia we saw earlier as the ice decayed.

Edited January 22, 2008 by Chris Knight

[Gray-Wolf]

Thank you so much for not dismissing my observations out of hand as other folk do in favour of outlets that are posting contrary info.

Sadly the thread 'skewed' with disputes over 'secondary info' rather than pursuing the visible info readily available. As you have highlighted the major problem that both north and south face and the 'warmer' sea temps.

The basal ablation of pack leading to it's structural fragility is currently being amply displayed in areas of the Arctic ocean, even though it is mid winter up there, with large rifts in the ice pulling apart and fragmentation of large sections of the pack. It appears similar (visually) to what I saw and posted from Antarctica in late Aug.

My 'reasonings' have been an attempt to make sense of that which I witnessed ( and backed up with as many 'clear' imagers as I could) occurring all around the continent back then . My 'reasonings were never an attempt at a 'definitive descriptor' of the processes involved.

I mistakenly thought that folk would try and help discover what was behind this 'novel' event but it would appear many folk were halted from input by the sideshow with A.F. and O.S.W., which is a shame.

Thank you again for your time and involvement, I'm not looking to be right, just for answers.

Ian.

[oldsnowywizard]

Ian, one more comment please just one more! Mods come on keep an eye on him please im getting fed up with these comments, its un necessary.

All i am doing is posting from different sites. By any stretch of the imagination have i said anything is 100% proof. THis is an assumption on GWs part.

sorry everyone for this thread going to pits.

[Gray-Wolf]

Yup, and whilst the prefects are doing that they might trawl back through this thread and see how constructive/pleasant responces to my observations have been. It's not time to take the bat home just yet, Feb. seems to be the month where we see the culmination of the seasons melt with the giant calvings and we wouldn't wish to miss that (would we?).

I'll keep folk visually informed of any developments......others may pop you in some second hand news to boot!(tee hee)