Latest Antarctic Ice Reports

[Gray-Wolf]

right , one last stab to try and allow you to see the 'strange' behaviour and reporting of the onset of the southern melt this year.

The above is our beloved C.T. plot for ice extent and anoms over this winter. I have added three red lines to their graph. Each line is around 29 1/4 days apart. Anyone care to annotate the diagram for me?

[oldsnowywizard]

Image time,

a visual comparison of the last 3 years shows that there is indeed more ice compared to the last 2 years at least... sorry if i had time i would do a comparison over a longer period...

so here we go.. this is January23rd 2006

ftp://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/ice/sh/sh.20060123.gif

this is January 23rd 2007

ftp://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/ice/sh/sh.20070123.gif

and finally today

ftp://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/ice/sh/I need to control my language2.20080123.gif

i will let you draw your own conclusions. source ncep not CT...

history would point to the ice melt slowing down round about now, with a low point around mid Feb..

the biggest visual difference i can see is an area of ice to the west of antarctica in the above image that isnt there last year or the year before, its this are that i believe to be making the difference on those CT charts... GW would be great if you could dig out a sat image of that particular area..before you say it... its very likely not going to be one vast area of sea ice...

for the next week or so, forecasted 2m temps from wezzer indicate that the core of antarctica will get colder over the next week or so... that particular area has 0 degree 2m temps, and SSTS around normal.. (source ncoda) so around -2... im sure other factors may have an effect..

so we get to the interesting time.. what will be the sea ice min down south? if GW is correct and last winter was a reocrd low at 14million sq kms then it would be truly amazing if levels in the summer didnt drop further than last year just under 2million sq kms...

but who knows there are so many variables, a big warm plume could melt the remaining sea ice!

Just for the record i am putting my bet on 2.4million to be the final figure.. we can use CT or another site that quantifies sea ice in the southern hemisphere?

Edited January 23, 2008 by oldsnowywizard

[Chris Knight]

Image time,

a visual comparison of the last 3 years shows that there is indeed more ice compared to the last 2 years at least... sorry if i had time i would do a comparison over a longer period...

so here we go.. this is January23rd 2006

ftp://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/ice/sh/sh.20060123.gif

this is January 23rd 2007

ftp://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/ice/sh/sh.20070123.gif

and finally today

<a href="ftp://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/ice/sh/I need to control my language2.20080123.gif" target="_blank">ftp://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/ice/sh/I need to control my language2.20080123.gif</a>

i will let you draw your own conclusions. source ncep not CT...

history would point to the ice melt slowing down round about now, with a low point around mid Feb..

the biggest visual difference i can see is an area of ice to the west of antarctica in the above image that isnt there last year or the year before, its this are that i believe to be making the difference on those CT charts... GW would be great if you could dig out a sat image of that particular area..before you say it... its very likely not going to be one vast area of sea ice...

for the next week or so, forecasted 2m temps from wezzer indicate that the core of antarctica will get colder over the next week or so... that particular area has 0 degree 2m temps, and SSTS around normal.. (source ncoda) so around -2... im sure other factors may have an effect..

so we get to the interesting time.. what will be the sea ice min down south? if GW is correct and last winter was a reocrd low at 14million sq kms then it would be truly amazing if levels in the summer didnt drop further than last year just under 2million sq kms...

but who knows there are so many variables, a big warm plume could melt the remaining sea ice!

Just for the record i am putting my bet on 2.4million to be the final figure.. we can use CT or another site that quantifies sea ice in the southern hemisphere?

Don't know what's going on here OSW! Deus ex machina perhaps?

Here are the three images side by side:

[oldsnowywizard]

Don't know what's going on here OSW! Deus ex machina perhaps?

Here are the three images side by side:

thanks Chris! sorry thats not how they turned out before i pressed submit post?! B)

[Gray-Wolf]

thanks Chris! sorry thats not how they turned out before i pressed submit post?!

Hi OSW!

I take it you haven't had a look at the Weddell sea recently or the larsen shelf region to it's west? I'll have a rummage around for something clear enough for you to accept but you'll be surprised at the difference between the reality and the extent on your image!

Back soon!

[Gray-Wolf]

Here is the area of the image

And here is the image itself. It's a few days old as this area is blighted by cloud for most of the southern summer as the ice ablates and chills the air mass directly above (similar to the Ross sea really)

Can you really recocile the 'red' areas at the coast on your image with the visible water at the coast (0% ice cover)?

Can you reconcile the extent and percentage cover from the rest of the Weddell seas area?

This is not a personal spat (however much you act like it is) so I'd appreciate an honest reply.

[Gray-Wolf]

In fact , I remember saying at the start of all this that we need see what the final figures in March are regarding sea ice anoms so those folk preaching cold temps and high anoms may have a little explaining to do if the anom droops into negative (as I'd posted) from it's '2 million sq km positive anom earlier in the melt. Seeing as we have over 2 months to go and the anom now sits (according to C.T. at only 500,000 sq km how do you think it'll be looking in March when its responded to the relatively ice free oceans and the top section of the oceans are not being 'cooled' by freshwater melt?

Surely to shift that amount of ice in such short order is remarkable in itself? (as I posted in Oct).

By June we will be seeing the recognised sources publishing their papers and making sense of , what must be seen as, a remarkable season (whatever is said!)

Off to see how well the cloud is behaving over Weddell as it seemed to be being blown offshore by the Katabatic winds/favourable depression.......

EDIT: Modis is not releasing todays pictures (yesterday 23:50 is as close as it goes)

So sadly the above is as clear as it gets (from yesterday) and you can see more clearly both the open water around the coast, the % coverage in the sea and it's extent.

Edited January 24, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

Here is the image on it's side and anotated with my take on things

Compare with the released 'ice extent image by opening both images (I've turned the sat image on it's side to make this easier)

[oldsnowywizard]

Here is the area of the image

And here is the image itself. It's a few days old as this area is blighted by cloud for most of the southern summer as the ice ablates and chills the air mass directly above (similar to the Ross sea really)

Can you really recocile the 'red' areas at the coast on your image with the visible water at the coast (0% ice cover)?

Can you reconcile the extent and percentage cover from the rest of the Weddell seas area?

This is not a personal spat (however much you act like it is) so I'd appreciate an honest reply.

to me GW being honest about what i see from the sat image... i can see open water near the coast... but that also shown on the images posted above.. i can also see a large area of sea ice... which i can just about make out from the cloud...

the images posted, are not mine, they come from ncep.. a globally renound and support organisation..

the comparison images then you are completely dismissing? and are you also dismissing that there appears to be more sea ice than last year and the year before?

[Gray-Wolf]

That's a far more difficult question to answer than you may think.

From our conversations with Mcmurdo we still do not know when the 'masks' used for the grid count on the ice extent maps were last updated. One would hope that this occurs on a regular basis but then , if they are you have to ask how 'average' is 'average extent' when you consider the hundreds of thousands of sq km of extra ocean 'freed up' at the coasts by ice shelf/glacier snout collapse.

How can you compare this year with last year when, if this year reaches the same geographical extent as last year, the total surface area of sea ice this year could be far in excess off last years because of the loss of shelf ice /glacier snout giving more 'free water' at the coastal strip.

If the 'masks are out of date then my 'free water' at the coast will be masked by the 'mask' (as it were).

Things are becoming so 'messed up' that to make a concise estimate of ice extent is problematic as the goalposts (to measure against) are continually moving.

The only measure I can safely use is the loss of shelf ice/glacier snouts at the end of the sea ice ablation cycle to see if things are stable/increasing/decreasing.

As you may have surmised I have no faith in the relevance of the ice extent/% cover these days (not since LarsenB gave me the 'wakeup call' in '2002).

[Gray-Wolf]

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/...8012326052.html

The last paragraph includes an observation on my beloved EAIS (marine sectors) and the need for further study there. The sleeping giant is stirring then?

[oldsnowywizard]

certainly worrying news there... so many variables involved.. i wonder if there were positive or negative temp anomolies over Antartcia in 2006?

[summer blizzard]

Any more news on the ice situation there??

[Gray-Wolf]

It would seem that we have already reached the point the ice was at in sept 07 with another month or so of ice melt to go???

The cries for a record ice extent this winter must be tempered with what must equally be a record ice melt this southern spring. It would certainly appear to be 'out of the ordinary' and it would be nice if more than myself would care to field sdome suggestions as to the whys and wherefores of the situation. If it were that the ice was 'growing' due to cooling we would not return to the zero anom line surely?

Any thoughts? Anyone?

[Snow Leopard]

It would seem that we have already reached the point the ice was at in sept 07 with another month or so of ice melt to go???

The cries for a record ice extent this winter must be tempered with what must equally be a record ice melt this southern spring. It would certainly appear to be 'out of the ordinary' and it would be nice if more than myself would care to field sdome suggestions as to the whys and wherefores of the situation. If it were that the ice was 'growing' due to cooling we would not return to the zero anom line surely?

Any thoughts? Anyone?

Hi GW. First time posting on this thread. Have followed it though and find it very interesting. Excuse my ignorance but looking at that graph of sea ice you have posted:

If I compare Feb 07 with Feb 08 it looks to me as if the Antarctic is up by about 0.75 million square km over the same time last year. If I take mnimum and maximum ice extents this figure represents about a 5% increase.

I think this 5% must somehow relate to the red graph at the bottom although I do not see a scale on it (or maybe I just do not know how to read it :lol: )

To me it looks as if the minimum ice extent was reached around mid-Feb 07 which, if we follow the same trend this year, would mean that the minimum would be somewhat (5% ?) higher than last year.

Right....Have I got that right or have I lost the plot ? :lol:

One thing I do not quite get is your question refering to Sept 07 ?

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi GW. First time posting on this thread. Have followed it though and find it very interesting. Excuse my ignorance but looking at that graph of sea ice you have posted:

If I compare Feb 07 with Feb 08 it looks to me as if the Antarctic is up by about 0.75 million square km over the same time last year. If I take mnimum and maximum ice extents this figure represents about a 5% increase.

I think this 5% must somehow relate to the red graph at the bottom although I do not see a scale on it (or maybe I just do not know how to read it B) )

To me it looks as if the minimum ice extent was reached around mid-Feb 07 which, if we follow the same trend this year, would mean that the minimum would be somewhat (5% ?) higher than last year.

Right....Have I got that right or have I lost the plot ? B)

One thing I do not quite get is your question refering to Sept 07 ?

Hi Snowleopard !

If we go off the C.T. plots then ice extent reached over 2 million sq km above last years max so to find those 'gains' eroded down to 750,0000 km sq is pretty good going too !

If you look at last Feb you'll notice the graph had bottomed out by then but the gradient on this years plots is far steeper and ,to me, looks like we have more ice loss to come. The next few weeks will show us where we are (hopefully) but I will be very surprised if this 'extra' 2 million disappears completely. Seeing as it was touted as a very cold winter down there the ablation would seem to attest to extra ocean warmth around the coasts melting back all the winters efforts. The warm ocean is more worrying when you look at the thinning of the remaining ice shelfs and the calving off of the ends of the rapidly flowing glacial snouts.

[Gray-Wolf]

Seems to me that the 'plunge' goes on.

The steepness of the 'ice extent' graph (cheers! .C.T.) would have you thinking that it would take exceptional conditions to lessen the gradient. After A.F.'s claims of late fall it'll be interesting to see the min. this year (max. 'ice ablation' record anyone [or don't they do them?]?).

[Optimus Prime]

Seems to me that the 'plunge' goes on.

The steepness of the 'ice extent' graph (cheers! .C.T.) would have you thinking that it would take exceptional conditions to lessen the gradient. After A.F.'s claims of late fall it'll be interesting to see the min. this year (max. 'ice ablation' record anyone [or don't they do them?]?).

It's nothing unusual to have sea ice drop back to normal levels during the warm up season, it's a natural bounce that would happen no matter how high ice concentrations are.

After last autumns massive drop in ice at the North Pole to average levels at present that was a record ice recovery or don't they do them in Gray Wolfs world?

And no the plunge doesn't go on, it's actually starting to show signs of stalling and the revoery process is starting to show up.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080212/ap_on_...tqXK79MOWJrAlMA

it's never just about one season OP. What is happening 'oop north' is occurring throughout the year ,as the above article highlights.

The folk who are parading an amazing recovery never really define as to what has recovered and from where.It is obviously not the multiyear pack that oversummers in the high arctic so what, if anything, ia it??? The final years of multiyear ice oversummering in the arctic are here and we still seek for some reprieve from single season coverage???

Todays plot from C.T. shows a continued melt, with another 3 or 4 weeks of melt to go, with no anomally from the million sq km anomally in November [top anom close to the southerrn mid summer????? I think not.............].

All of this would suggest that some novel event is ongoing in antarctica........I wonder what?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GW

Nothing 'odd' or remarkable about the melt. Shame it isn't below normal so as to make a comment...but it ain't.

BFTP

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Todays plot from C.T. shows a continued melt, with another 3 or 4 weeks of melt to go, with no anomally from the million sq km anomally in November [top anom close to the southerrn mid summer????? I think not.............].

Gray-Wolf, when was the last time you said something accurate about Antarctic sea ice?

today's chart shows a (presumably temporary) leveling off of the melt and, since we last looked, an increase in the positive anomaly away from normal.

[Gray-Wolf]

BAS are now reporting dynamic changes in the Plne island glacier (remember the big chunk that dropped off late last year?) and this could impact on sea levels sooner than previously thought. They (BAS) are also reporting massive increases in snowfall over the penninsula, in line with the GW predictions, showing how swift weather patterns are in response to warming.

We must remember that any sea level hikes put extra stresses on shelf ice where it attatches to the mainland raising the spectre of it's failure and 'floatoff'. The shelf ice 'girdle' around the continent ,currently holding back the glacial outlets, are presently protecting us from catastrophic sea level changes but for how long as seas warm and weather patterns alter?

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data...t.2.21.2008.gif

take a look at the sst's around pine island

Edited February 23, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[oldsnowywizard]

GW i think the southern sea ice min level may shortly be upon us.. i cant see any further melt, the mean is back on its way up, the sub 0 temps are continue to spread as the main land temps are starting to plumet, there may be some further melt in places as you say due to the warmer oceans, although there appears to be more areas of negative anamolies around the coast than warmer areas..

lets see what happens in the next few months..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GW i think the southern sea ice min level may shortly be upon us.. i cant see any further melt, the mean is back on its way up, the sub 0 temps are continue to spread as the main land temps are starting to plumet, there may be some further melt in places as you say due to the warmer oceans, although there appears to be more areas of negative anamolies around the coast than warmer areas..

lets see what happens in the next few months..

And the ice is still above average.

BFTP

[Gray-Wolf]

We are in the 'time zone' for shelf collapse as the sea ice is none existent around most of the coast. There are still large areas of coastal fragmentation (U.K. sized) from Fimbul through to Amery and the first of the autumnal storms to disperse this shattered pack so though our portly maid may be warming her larynx she has fully tuned yet........

I'll post some example when i've pulled them up and cropped them for you.