Latest Antarctic Ice Reports

[oldsnowywizard]

C,mon guys! we all know that Antarctica exists in it's own 'splendid isolation' so far a global climate is concerned (apart from the peninsula which sticks out into the real world. Eventually the south pole will succumb to global changes. It's like saying that one man can beat a full team when you insist that the small percentage of the globe which is Antarctica will not only overcome what is occurring globally but in some way overturn our efforts to warm the globe. Time too rise and shine and catch a whiff of the caffiene.....

GW sorry mate i dont know you are aiming this at? i cant see a previous post claiming that Antarctica will save the globe?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

C,mon guys! we all know that Antarctica exists in it's own 'splendid isolation' so far a global climate is concerned (apart from the peninsula which sticks out into the real world. Eventually the south pole will succumb to global changes. It's like saying that one man can beat a full team when you insist that the small percentage of the globe which is Antarctica will not only overcome what is occurring globally but in some way overturn our efforts to warm the globe. Time too rise and shine and catch a whiff of the caffiene.....

Put it this way GW, it ain't behaving like you or the models have forcast. 1.2million sq KM ahead of last year and rising.....

BFTP

[Mr Sleet]

I would now expect last years record area to be surpassed sometime in early to mid August, a full SIX WEEKS ahead of the time when the maximum is normally achieved. Amazing and sadly little reported.

[oldsnowywizard]

I would now expect last years record area to be surpassed sometime in early to mid August, a full SIX WEEKS ahead of the time when the maximum is normally achieved. Amazing and sadly little reported.

lol, thats assuming quite a lot there Sleet.. i would expect similar levels to last year, give or take 10%..

[Snow Leopard]

Seems like there has been a bit of a bump in the SH SI increase. Anyone have any ideas why? I know it happens from time to time but was just wondering if its due to anything in particular, eg unexpected warmth, ice shelf collapse, etc.

[Gray-Wolf]

Seems like there has been a bit of a bump in the SH SI increase. Anyone have any ideas why? I know it happens from time to time but was just wondering if its due to anything in particular, eg unexpected warmth, ice shelf collapse, etc.

This is what I've been trying to establish! The fact that the 'ice tongues' that push out in front of Weddell and Ross run the risk of falling foul to the storms within the circumpolar winds (self limiting device) seems to have escaped most. I bet ,if we look, we'll find nice 'ice growing' conditions through their autumn and now, with the onset of the winter storms, their precious single year slush is somewhere melting in the southern oceans.

The sooner 'they' realise that we are in uncharted (but foreseeable) territory then the sooner these childish 'Oooh look at all the[single year] ice!) the better (IMHO).

[oldsnowywizard]

This is what I've been trying to establish! The fact that the 'ice tongues' that push out in front of Weddell and Ross run the risk of falling foul to the storms within the circumpolar winds (self limiting device) seems to have escaped most. I bet ,if we look, we'll find nice 'ice growing' conditions through their autumn and now, with the onset of the winter storms, their precious single year slush is somewhere melting in the southern oceans.

The sooner 'they' realise that we are in uncharted (but foreseeable) territory then the sooner these childish 'Oooh look at all the[single year] ice!) the better (IMHO).

GW so you have been trying to establish whats up, and its uncharted territory and yet you seem absolutely sure that you know whats going to happen? and who are "they" conspirators?

there are probably a million and one things that are currently having an impact on sea ice conditions. At least there is more "mulityear" ice which goes against the trend of Arctic. i think you are correct regarding storms, however there is another 4 million sq kms of ice potenitally which could grow and this would be during the winter period..

again this is a plea to you. can you stop with the silly comments aimed at people who dont quite see things through your heat tainted glasses. i prefer your posts that are based on facts or are questions. it ruins these threads and forces people to write critcal replies of you.

lets continue nicely please.

[osmposm]

The sooner 'they' realise that we are in uncharted (but foreseeable) territory then the sooner these childish 'Oooh look at all the[single year] ice!) the better (IMHO).

That's rich coming from the man(?) who has spent the last week or so repeatedly crying 'Oooh look at the expanding meltpools! Oooh look at the higher waves! Oooh look the orange buoy moving!' (the last one quite wrongly) over on the Arctic Reports thread.

On this forum we have very limited clear and certain data available to us about what is happening now and in the recent past. There is therefore a myriad of different interpretations possible about precisely what is occurring - at both ends of the earth. Your observations and opinions can be interesting, but should be expressed as possibilities, not facts. I agree completely with OSW - if you don't want to stick to established facts then please moderate your tone when speculating and expressing opinion.

[grab my graupel]

I have to say folks, it's a little disappointing that the moderating team is once again having to intervene

in these areas, so soon after our discussions about this type of thing.

Once again, can we please take note of the rules before posting, and if there is a particular post which

you have an issue with, then please feel free to use the report button

Thank you

Brian

[oldsnowywizard]

Sorry Brian, im sure we will all play nice from now on..

[osmposm]

Ditto. Mea culpa.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What's happened...

BFTP

Edited July 9, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Gray-Wolf]

What's happened...

BFTP

Me!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Me!

Oh status quo then

BFTP

[Gray-Wolf]

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/..._timeseries.png

Come on fella's, your all so full of the good news when ice levels are up but seem a little reluctant to post when things slip back to below normal in their trends (and this in one of the coldest Antarctic winters since '88).

Sooooo, Wazzupp?

[SteveB]

As far as I can see, it looks like it's bang on average, and doing better than last year.

[Gray-Wolf]

As far as I can see, it looks like it's bang on average, and doing better than last year.

The current trend appears set to take it below 'average' but yes, 'bang on average' for the time of year.

As I posted we are in the grips of one of the coldest Antarctic winters for many years but ice extents have fallen back from the (much applauded in some quarters) positive anomalies shown earlier in the southern winter so why is this occurring?

Last year was another 'cold' Antarctic winter and we dis see positive anoms in ice extent all season (near as damn) so what is different this time around?

We are told by both B.A.S. and NSIDC that the 'thin sea ice' around Wilkins is aiding it in it's midwinter collapse so what gives? The same authorities are also saying that 'warm' waters are thinning the shelf from below and maybe here is our clue. Doesn't matter what 2m temps are doing if below the ice we have +c temps....we still get melt in the middle of winter.

The 'fall back' from positive ice extent anoms would suggest that the extremities of the pack are being whittled away by either severe weather or warmer waters.....or both.

Still not what I'd expect in the middle of a southern winter though. Any thought anyone?

[oldsnowywizard]

i guess the positive anomolies werent going to continue forever.. a few more months of ice growth potential so i guess we will see what happens... you could be right regarding the sea temps... there could be some more volcanic activity or just warmer than normal waters..

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi OSW!

It just seems odd that they are in the middle/back end of one of the coldest winters in many years and the sea ice responds in this way don'tcha think?

Maybe somethings going on with global temps affecting global sea temps.....especially at the poles where a little 'warming' can have a major effect......just a thought you understand :lol:

EDIT: Isn't that a heck of a lot of continental coast to be affected by 'vulcanism'???

Edited July 17, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[picog]

Hi OSW!

It just seems odd that they are in the middle/back end of one of the coldest winters in many years and the sea ice responds in this way don'tcha think?

Maybe somethings going on with global temps affecting global sea temps.....especially at the poles where a little 'warming' can have a major effect......just a thought you understand :lol:

EDIT: Isn't that a heck of a lot of continental coast to be affected by 'vulcanism'???

Do the British Antarctic Survey folks have anything to say about the apparent recent loss of ice? As you say, it seems rather odd that the ice appears to be shrinking in the face of such amazingly cold conditions. Could the sea really have melted so much ice in such as short period of time? Maybe there was an error in some of the earlier readings.

[oldsnowywizard]

EDIT: Isn't that a heck of a lot of continental coast to be affected by 'vulcanism'???

there are forces at work somewhere... there could be one area of warmer sea temps that has resulted in a large area of ice melt.. comparing images wouldnt work becuase we are bang on the same ice concentration levels as last year now...perhaps someone with a little more time could post images from today with say two weeks ago.. so we can see where the ice has melted...?

[Interitus]

It's not necessarily melt. Remember that much of the ice pack is mobile and can ridge up or move apart out to sea. These help to alter the apparent ice concentration, the measurement of which in itself is prone to a margin of error.

[Cycles]

The current trend appears set to take it below 'average' but yes, 'bang on average' for the time of year.

As I posted we are in the grips of one of the coldest Antarctic winters for many years but ice extents have fallen back from the (much applauded in some quarters) positive anomalies shown earlier in the southern winter so why is this occurring?

Last year was another 'cold' Antarctic winter and we dis see positive anoms in ice extent all season (near as damn) so what is different this time around?

We are told by both B.A.S. and NSIDC that the 'thin sea ice' around Wilkins is aiding it in it's midwinter collapse so what gives? The same authorities are also saying that 'warm' waters are thinning the shelf from below and maybe here is our clue. Doesn't matter what 2m temps are doing if below the ice we have +c temps....we still get melt in the middle of winter.

The 'fall back' from positive ice extent anoms would suggest that the extremities of the pack are being whittled away by either severe weather or warmer waters.....or both.

Still not what I'd expect in the middle of a southern winter though. Any thought anyone?

Oceans cool slower than air, therefore a time delay for the warmer currents to cool. As the earth cools during global cooling, so will the currents, but with a lag in time.

[Roger J Smith]

I think this winter is definitely a case of (even) stronger zonal flow, temperatures have at times been quite a bit above normal in mid-latitude locations like central Argentina, southern Australia and much of NZ. I've been watching daily weather maps and there has been the usual parade of strong lows but they seem to be taking a route just close enough to the Antarctic coast to place a lot of wind stress on any ice formation north of 62 S even if much colder air occasionally blasts away from the unusually cold Antarctic. This is a set-up in which any later blocking or meridional flow in some sector could lead to a rapid ice advance in August and September, so watch for that possibility.

[Chris Knight]

there are forces at work somewhere... there could be one area of warmer sea temps that has resulted in a large area of ice melt.. comparing images wouldnt work becuase we are bang on the same ice concentration levels as last year now...perhaps someone with a little more time could post images from today with say two weeks ago.. so we can see where the ice has melted...?

NCEP compares last year, or gives an animation of the last 30 days here