Latest Antarctic Ice Reports

[oldsnowywizard]

CT has now got an increase in SH sea ice.. obviously things could go up and down but its an indication that the melt season is close to ending if it hasnt ended already... so according to CT at the moment the sea ice min level was 2.1mil sq kms... up on last year.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

CT has now got an increase in SH sea ice.. obviously things could go up and down but its an indication that the melt season is close to ending if it hasnt ended already... so according to CT at the moment the sea ice min level was 2.1mil sq kms... up on last year.

The trend is up up up. No catastrophe then? could we have another record year?????

BFTP

[oldsnowywizard]

that has to be quickest u turn in ice melt ever in the southern hemisphere.. looks like a few days? :huh:

the CT chart you can see above..

by next week there are widespread -45 temps.. at the moment though temps are 5 to 10 degrees warmer than normal according to NOAA although Amundsen - scott station already reporting -52 degrees!!

sea surface temps are in most areas below normal with a few exceptions.. as per ncoda

as the temps plummet we should see sea ice forming quite readily, ssts appear to have cooled quite rapidly in the last few weeks since i last checked ncoda...

i would be interested to hear GWs views on the situation... GW you mentioned that the southern hemisphere actually had a record low sea ice concentration during the cold season, i believe you said 14mil sq kms? (although posted no evidence) if you are correct then perhaps you will acknowlege that the actual amount of sea ice melt has been much lower in the melt season.. the final figure seeming to be 2.1 mil sq kms? afterall if you were right then in theory we should also have had record low ice levels (since records began) right? espcially with the warmer oceans, tides ect that you illuded to?

not saying you are 100% inacurate of course as i am only going by the 5 different sources of information i have access to..

this isnt an i told you so.. i genuinly wish to understand, i guess the "why didnt the summer sea ice melt more than ever" on the basis the you claimed that the " winter sea ice levels were lower than ever"

cheers

[Gray-Wolf]

So last feb the ice was down to 1.9 msq km and this year it got to 2.1 msq km in the mean time it max'ed out at over 2 msq km above last years figures. So the 'record cold' being harped on about has resulted in a net gain of just 0.2 msq km........what happened to the other 1.8msq km?

As far as i can gauge the ice retention has been in wind jammed areas (Weddell sea pushed up against the peninsula) and has not been retained along the coastal strips who were down to the shelf ice by early Jan. Cold weather and a AGW modified circumpolar wind seem to be the driving forces here, along with the moderate La- Nina. If we look at southern hemisphere temps for this summer we'll find that nowhere did very well (NZ, Argentina/Peru) and Australia certainly responded to the La-Nina conditions with the first rains in some areas for over 10yrs.

Climate is still able to follow it's own flux's (AGW signal not swamping natural cycles) so to 'cock-adoodle-do' about a normal La-Nina event seems odd. Maybe if we took a comparable La-Nino period and compared the ice retention over that period we would have a useful measure.

In the same way as AGW deniers harp on about temps in 98' not being matched (last big el-Nino) so therefore we are cooling we wouldn't like to make the same silly error during an average La-Nina and call for a general 'cooling' as temps respond to the global synoptics.

[Mr Sleet]

So last feb the ice was down to 1.9 msq km and this year it got to 2.1 msq km in the mean time it max'ed out at over 2 msq km above last years figures. So the 'record cold' being harped on about has resulted in a net gain of just 0.2 msq km........what happened to the other 1.8msq km?

As far as i can gauge the ice retention has been in wind jammed areas (Weddell sea pushed up against the peninsula) and has not been retained along the coastal strips who were down to the shelf ice by early Jan. Cold weather and a AGW modified circumpolar wind seem to be the driving forces here, along with the moderate La- Nina. If we look at southern hemisphere temps for this summer we'll find that nowhere did very well (NZ, Argentina/Peru) and Australia certainly responded to the La-Nina conditions with the first rains in some areas for over 10yrs.

Climate is still able to follow it's own flux's (AGW signal not swamping natural cycles) so to 'cock-adoodle-do' about a normal La-Nina event seems odd. Maybe if we took a comparable La-Nino period and compared the ice retention over that period we would have a useful measure.

In the same way as AGW deniers harp on about temps in 98' not being matched (last big el-Nino) so therefore we are cooling we wouldn't like to make the same silly error during an average La-Nina and call for a general 'cooling' as temps respond to the global synoptics.

That's a strange world you are inhabiting there GW.

[eddie]

So last feb the ice was down to 1.9 msq km and this year it got to 2.1 msq km in the mean time it max'ed out at over 2 msq km above last years figures. So the 'record cold' being harped on about has resulted in a net gain of just 0.2 msq km........what happened to the other 1.8msq km?

GW you do realise if we were still 2m sq km above the current date's average that would mean there would be 100% more sea ice than expected?

You really have to look at the ice extent figures as a percentage of what should be there rather than an absolute figure.

Looking at the cryosphere today graph. (Some of my number might be slightly out since I am reading them from the graph)

In Dec 2007: There was one point where the anomaly was 2msqkm. The total ice area was 8.5msqkm. The expected(mean) ice area for that date was 6.5msqkm. The ice area was 30% above average.

Currently: The total ice area is about 2.4msqkm. The expected mean ice area is about 1.8msqkm. The anomaly is about 0.6msqkm. The ice area is 33% above average.

[oldsnowywizard]

quite an impressive start to winter down under then..

i would imagine we will continue to see a rapid increase until all the coastal areas are iced over.. we may then see a slight lull as the sea ice starts to grow out. it does look though that the ice season has started a few weeks early..

[summer blizzard]

Indeed, we could be looking at another record ice maximum.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Indeed, we could be looking at another record ice maximum.

Not a good time for GW then?

BFTP

[Mr Sleet]

Not a good time for GW then? :o

BFTP

No, ice area going up remarkably rapidly.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Is there anything to worry about all this extra sea ice? Cold feedbacks? Why is it happening now when the sunspot thing isn't going to take full effect for a few years?

[oldsnowywizard]

AFT i think we need to wait and see what the next 7 months brings down there.. afterall there are positive temps anomolies in the SH so sea ice growth could slow down a bit...

[BrickFielder]

I think it is probably misleading and the early build is a result of La Nina. La nina changes the synoptic pattern such that both the Hadley and Ferrel cells strengths are changed along with the Rossby Wave train. This results in what is known as the Antarctic Dipole with cold air being brought north in the southern Pacific to form early sea ice .

The Antarctic Dipole

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I think it is probably misleading and the early build is a result of La Nina. La nina changes the synoptic pattern such that both the Hadley and Ferrel cells strengths are changed along with the Rossby Wave train. This results in what is known as the Antarctic Dipole with cold air being brought north in the southern Pacific to form early sea ice .

The Antarctic Dipole

Which would explain the sea ice anomaly east of the peninsular.

[Mr Sleet]

I think it is probably misleading and the early build is a result of La Nina. La nina changes the synoptic pattern such that both the Hadley and Ferrel cells strengths are changed along with the Rossby Wave train. This results in what is known as the Antarctic Dipole with cold air being brought north in the southern Pacific to form early sea ice .

The Antarctic Dipole

How can it be misleading when it is the result of natural phenonemon ? Rhetorical question.

[oldsnowywizard]

update time..

things just keep getting better according to CT.. we are up on last year and the mean just keeps rising.. surely it cant keep going on like this?

the 850 temps are continuing to drop further away from antarctica and the -30/40s temps are continuing to spread.. just to give you an idea there are reports of -63/63 degrees C already in the favoured spots.. thats only 10 off the record low for last year which was -72, recorded in September last year!

according to NCODA, all the coastal waters are 0 to -3 degrees below normal. there are some positive anomolies about but these appear to be getting weaker and weaker..

still massive positive anomolies showing with surface temps though..

so why does there seem to be a massive growth spurt?

1. more ice last year so a head start this year?

2. more ice melt from the mainland, so more fresh water, so more ice?

not sure

the surface temps during the summer for the whole period showed negative anomolies according to the same website as the above image..

the warmer ocean temps proggd by GW dont appear to be having an affect.. GW any thoughts from you on the current situation?

i guess one good thing is that multiyear sea ice looks set to actually increase if things continue..

[Gray-Wolf]

update time..

things just keep getting better according to CT.. we are up on last year and the mean just keeps rising.. surely it cant keep going on like this?

the 850 temps are continuing to drop further away from antarctica and the -30/40s temps are continuing to spread.. just to give you an idea there are reports of -63/63 degrees C already in the favoured spots.. thats only 10 off the record low for last year which was -72, recorded in September last year!

according to NCODA, all the coastal waters are 0 to -3 degrees below normal. there are some positive anomolies about but these appear to be getting weaker and weaker..

still massive positive anomolies showing with surface temps though..

so why does there seem to be a massive growth spurt?

1. more ice last year so a head start this year?

2. more ice melt from the mainland, so more fresh water, so more ice?

not sure

the surface temps during the summer for the whole period showed negative anomolies according to the same website as the above image..

the warmer ocean temps proggd by GW dont appear to be having an affect.. GW any thoughts from you on the current situation?

i guess one good thing is that multiyear sea ice looks set to actually increase if things continue..

Yup, I see a whole bunch of cold meltwater in the places I keep whining on about.........sorry, I'm sure you had a point?

[Mr Sleet]

From Cryosphere Today website.

No comment needed I think.

Edited March 25, 2008 by Mr Sleet

[oldsnowywizard]

Yup, I see a whole bunch of cold meltwater in the places I keep whining on about.........sorry, I'm sure you had a point?

lol GW oh dear oh dear oh dear.. actully i dont recall you whining about cold meltwater at all, only a "record low sea ice concentration" which you seem to have stopped talking about.... quick get photoshop out again and add some lines to CT....

[Jayces]

Not sure if this belongs here but i'll post it anyway.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7313264.stm

It's a piece about the Wilkins Ice Shelf breaking up.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I like the buggies these guys use to get around.

Yeah, Jayces, the Peninsular has been warming due to warmer surrounding SST. This may be somewhat more to do with oceanic circulation and somewhat less to do with global warming. Maybe I'm wrong but the collapse of ice shelves in the region seems a bit dramatic for the 1 degree Celsius observed global warming.

Edited March 25, 2008 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Interitus]

Of course though, oceanic circulation and global temperature are inextricably linked.

Increased Antarctic sea ice extent is not incompatible with warming, and with the collapse of ice shelves indeed it may be expected as glacial flow rates increase.

Apparent positive ice extent anomalies are not necessarily a good sign. Again, the total volume of ice is more significant than area.

[Gray-Wolf]

Not sure if this belongs here but i'll post it anyway.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7313264.stm

It's a piece about the Wilkins Ice Shelf breaking up.

Beat me to it!!

Soooo, lets see we have BAS reporting a major calve from Pine in mid southern winter and now,as everyone gets giddy about the 200,000sqkm increase in sea ice this year, we get Wilkins letting go another huge chunk of the bits of shelf left before the Pine island complex. I wonder if it was their new toy planes that did the spotting?

As I've repeated it is all about the volume of ice and not the extent of ice that matters. Even more so in Antarctica where its 'multiyear ice' ,in the form of shelves fringing the continent, holds back vast areas of ice which rapidly spill out into the oceans when the 'girdle' of shelf ice is lost.

[Mr Sleet]

Beat me to it!!

Soooo, lets see we have BAS reporting a major calve from Pine in mid southern winter and now,as everyone gets giddy about the 200,000sqkm increase in sea ice this year, we get Wilkins letting go another huge chunk of the bits of shelf left before the Pine island complex. I wonder if it was their new toy planes that did the spotting?

As I've repeated it is all about the volume of ice and not the extent of ice that matters. Even more so in Antarctica where its 'multiyear ice' ,in the form of shelves fringing the continent, holds back vast areas of ice which rapidly spill out into the oceans when the 'girdle' of shelf ice is lost.

Well these things happen all the time as you point out, and are pinpricks in the bigger scheme of things, which is increasing ice area, well above the long term average.

[Interitus]

Well these things happen all the time as you point out, and are pinpricks in the bigger scheme of things, which is increasing ice area, well above the long term average.

Er, these "pinpricks" help increase ice area.

I'll contact the British Antarctic Survey and tell them not to worry.