Latest Antarctic Ice Reports

[Gray-Wolf]

So it wasn't in place before then?

???

Yes it was, and then it wasn't, and then it was, and then it wasn't.......depends on whether the antarctic was in meltdown or not........

for those of us who understand the usefulness of the MODIS suite for keeping an eye on Antarctica (and the Arctic) here is yesterdays image (PM) of the mush that was Wilkins.

[oldsnowywizard]

the latest March average charts from nsdic look quite positive for both extent and concentration...

http://www.nsidc.colorado.edu/data/seaice_index/

[SteveB]

I cannot help but think this is a positive step in the right direction. Both poles showing good ice retention & growth after a being obliterated in the previous Summers. One would think a bottoming out so to speak has occured, & it's back to business as usual. Not for one moment could you assume that is the case though. A few years are needed to see if it is truly the case, or just another blip.

[Gray-Wolf]

I was helping someone out on the mirror thread down in environment with regards to the circumpolar wind or the ACC (or west wind) and it's measured impacts on things down there.

For the past 30 years we have noted a dramatic increase in the circumpolar winds and recent (past 6 years) work by the B.A.S. has shown that apart from driving the Antarctic Circumpolar Current it also, via the impact of the Coriolis effect, it is overturning the ocean depths there leading to cold water upwelling and warm water subduction.

Obviously their comes a point where the waters being thrown up to the surface by the winds are the recently subducted warmer waters.

Sooooo, at present we are treated to ice extent maxima that look quite healthy but this is only a short-term respite before we find that the Antarctic looses it's sea ice over summer and that the then 'warm' overturned waters start to make inroads to the shelfs surrounding Antarctica. We all know what happens next.

It is very easy to confuse one thing for another when they look the same but make no mistake things are not as some would paint them.

[bluecon]

Actually it is more likely that Earth is on a cooling trend and the ice will increase for at least a few years.

[Mr Sleet]

Actually it is more likely that Earth is on a cooling trend and the ice will increase for at least a few years.

Seems more feasible to me

Edited April 2, 2008 by Mr Sleet

[Michael Ronayne]

So it wasn't in place before then?

I apologize for this off topic post but I need to get in contact with you immediately. I have the high quality animations and blink comparator analysis of the Northern Hemispheric Sea Ice Anomalies. I also did the same with the Northern Hemispheric Sea Ice Area graphics. I became aware of your work in response to a recent animation I did on Solar Cycle 23 and its alleged transition into Solar Cycle 24. Here is my report and animation. If you read the posts you will see the link to your un-attributed work. I have been looking for you ever since.

Solar Cycle 23 Forecasts - The Movie

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/03/29/solar-cycle-23-forecasts-the-movie/

By the way, if Solar Cycle 24 doesn't start for real very soon, the event will be officially by know as the "Gore Minimum". We Yanks take great pride in our Resident Prophet and he never received any credit for inventing the Internet.

Did you ever receive a response from Dr. William Chapman to your Email on the sea ice calculations? I believe I have identified who made the changes and it was not Dr. Chapman.

I would very much like to obtain copies of any and all graphics which you downloaded directly from Cryosphere Today with the dates of the downloads. I have everything from Archive.org. There are problems with some of the other graphics at CT; when you cook to books, you have to be consistent!

Could you send me a private message with your contact information? I do not have that level of authorization on this forum.

Michael Ronayne

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Micheal and welcome!

Thanks for the efforts on the graphic, it does illustrate how we need to revise predictions in the light of the facts as they unravel. I don't know if this is sinister or just an attempt to keep track.

The latest NASA predictions also push solar max for cycle 24 back a tad in line with the slow transition between 23 and 24. Though I have a great fascination with the many ways the sun impacts upon the planet I don't think it's variability over the past 150 year can fully account for the changes we are witnessing, a glimpse around our world highlights real well just what a messy, destructive critter we humans are and, though I can neither see nor smell it I believe it wise to accept we are trashing our atmosphere as much as our surface (we ain't that selective in what we mess with) and that this trashing has it's 'costs'.

As you can see from the posts before your some folk will believe something true just because they either spoke it or thought it (flying in the face of the evidence) so we must take care of positive feedback if it is purely backslapping from those whose knowledge consists of 'feelings' alone.

I hope whoever you are after will be able to furnish you with what you require!

Ian.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

For the past 30 years we have noted a dramatic increase in the circumpolar winds and recent (past 6 years) work by the B.A.S. has shown that apart from driving the Antarctic Circumpolar Current it also, via the impact of the Coriolis effect, it is overturning the ocean depths there leading to cold water upwelling and warm water subduction.

Obviously their comes a point where the waters being thrown up to the surface by the winds are the recently subducted warmer waters.

GW

Thats what you call a natural cycle. We have entered the perturbation cycle, it is bang on cue.

Solar cycle 24....hasn't started and is leading us into a Dalton/Maunder cold period.

BFTP

[oldsnowywizard]

As you can see from the posts before your some folk will believe something true just because they either spoke it or thought it (flying in the face of the evidence) so we must take care of positive feedback if it is purely backslapping from those whose knowledge consists of 'feelings' alone.

Ian.

i wonder Ian if you say such things to get a rise from people? Remember everyone is entitled to their opinion

[Gray-Wolf]

GW

Thats what you call a natural cycle. We have entered the perturbation cycle, it is bang on cue.

Solar cycle 24....hasn't started and is leading us into a Dalton/Maunder cold period.

BFTP

The increase in the circumpolar wind is far from natural and laid directly at the feet of human induced global warming. The knock on effects from the increases (shelf collapse and interior glacier acceleration, ocean warming,increased snowfall on the peninsula,increasing sub ice activity, surface pooling, high altitude summer snow melt, disruption to the plankton blooms,reduction in the ability of the southern ocean to take up CO2) must therefore also fall at mankind's feet.

Don't worry though, the proof will arrive much faster than most folk think.......and also cycle is still on line to be the most active of the cycles that mankind has studied so quite a peculiar minimum.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Don't worry though, the proof will arrive much faster than most folk think.......and also cycle is still on line to be the most active of the cycles that mankind has studied so quite a peculiar minimum.

Sorry GW that is absolute tosh and you let yourself down there. It is already 15 months late and hence has lengthened cycle 23 and when cycles lengthen so minimas are experienced....and that don't change. So now what are you saying that man's CO2 is affecting the solar cycle too????? Check out too how cycle 23 was a bit quieter than expected by the warmist lobby...I mean NASA/NOAA

I agree the proof will arrive sooner than you think...cold SH winter and summer, cold arctic winter...the signs are there....but IMO a few years to prove/disprove yet.

Oh and all that you describe in para 1 is of course what has happened before and before and before. We are [minutely] in the mix IMHO

BFTP

Edited April 5, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Michael Ronayne]

Don't worry though, the proof will arrive much faster than most folk think.

Your words may prove to be prophetic but not in the way you intend.

The climate research laboratories at Columbia University in New York City have developed an exceptional Google Earth visualization of all the GISS planetary surface stations. If you download the KLM and/or KLZ files you may want to pay particular attention to the stations in Antarctica. The West Antarctic Peninsula, which comprises approximately 2% of the above sea level area of Antarctica, exhibits two distinctly different climate systems based on the temperature histories. The Western Slope of the West Antarctic Peninsula which until recently had been exhibiting warming now appears to have entered a cooling phase. For the Eastern Slope of the West Antarctic Peninsula, the word "cold" would be a gross understatement. The recent temperature changes have been so extreme that I checked the GISS database to eliminate the possibility of a programming error in the graphics software and found none. The temperature changes appear to be quite real.

Ken Mankoff's Google Earth implementation of all the GISS surface stations is outstanding. All of the hot-spots, cold-spots and incomplete data are graphically rendered in living color, with trend lines for the last 10, 25, and 50 years for each station. This resource is very useful in identifying where problem stations are located. Many international borders can be identified, based on the color codes assigned to the condition of the surface stations. I don't know want it is with Americans be we appear to have an incredible fondness for weather stations.

Before you down load the KLM and/or KLZ files, read the following documentation and my commentary. The must have file is StationData_net.kmz which can unzipped to StationData_net.kml, but I would download everything. This is an excellent learning aid.

Documentation for Global Temperature Station Data in Google Earth

http://dev.edgcm.columbia.edu/wiki/StationData

Public pages of Ken Mankoff at Columbia/GISS:

http://edgcm.columbia.edu/~mankoff

Folder containing all of the GISS Station data for Google Earth:

http://edgcm.columbia.edu/~mankoff/StationData/

This small Google Earth KLM file links to the larger KLM file:

http://edgcm.columbia.edu/~mankoff/StationData/StationData.kml

This large Google Earth KLM file contains all the GISS station locations:

http://edgcm.columbia.edu/~mankoff/StationData/StationData_net.kml

The ZIP version of StationData_net.kml can be read directly by Google Earth:

http://edgcm.columbia.edu/~mankoff/StationData/StationData_net.kmz

You can convert a KML file into a KMZ file using the ZIP command.

ZIP StationData_net.kmz StationData_net.kml

This folder is where all the generated Postscript images are stored.

http://edgcm.columbia.edu/~mankoff/StationData/images/

This folder is where station data though 2006 is stored:

http://edgcm.columbia.edu/~mankoff/StationData/data/

While the above folder appears to contain data through 2006, many of the station graphics in Google Earth are complete through 2007. I suspect that updates are being made from the primary GISS database.

For anyone interested in climate and weather, this is a fantastic resource. I don't understand why GISS or Columbia is not promoting it. Ken Mankoff has to be one outstanding programmer.

Mike

[Michael Ronayne]

It is already 15 months late and hence has lengthened cycle 23 and when cycles lengthen so minimas are experienced.

Reluctantly I have to disagree with your estimate because you are being much too forgiving. Depending on whom you want to believe at NASA, NOAA or SWPC, Solar Cycle 24 is now between 15 and 24 months late not 15 months. As the animation I posted shows SWPC spent all of 2007 adjusting solar minimum one month at a time until even they gave up and published a significantly revised forecast which two conflicting predictions because there is no longer any conscious on what the sun is going to do during Solar Cycle 24.

The one long-range prediction which everyone appeared to be in agreement with was that Solar Cycle 25 was going to be "off the bottom of the charts".

Solar Cycle 25 peaking around 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10may_longrange.htm

Many of us are starting to suspect that the anticipated impact from Solar Cycle 25 is arriving early. Note the following comment in the NASA report.

On the other hand, they will have to worry more about cosmic rays. Cosmic rays are high-energy particles from deep

space; they penetrate metal, plastic, flesh and bone. Astronauts exposed to cosmic rays develop an increased risk of cancer, cataracts and other maladies. Ironically, solar explosions, which produce their own deadly radiation, sweep away the even deadlier cosmic rays. As flares subside, cosmic rays intensify—yin

, yang.

There was no mention on the impact of cosmic rays on weather. A most unfortunate oversight!

One of the definitions for solar minimum is that point in time when the number of sunspots with the magnetic polarity of the old cycle equals the number of sunspots with the magnetic polarity of the new cycle. By that definition we are still in Solar Cycle 23 and have not yet reached solar minimum. If we don't see any more high latitude reverse polarity sunspots in the next two months look for SWPC to start marking revisions once again. I will keep my animation update as SWPC publishes monthly reports.

The longer the arrival time for solar minimum is the more likely Solar Cycle 24 will be weak. So keep watching the sun. Today's number is Zero!

http://www.solarcycle24.com/

Mike

P.S. The group running Solar Cycle 24 are amateur radio operators and they are hopping an energetic sun so they can bounce their radio transmissions off the ionosphere. Think of them as surfers or skiers waiting for the next big wave or next big snow.

[oldsnowywizard]

a very interesting read and contribution. thanks for that!

[Mr Sleet]

From Cryosphere Today website. Onwards and upwards for the ever colder Antarctic.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Reluctantly I have to disagree with your estimate because you are being much too forgiving. Depending on whom you want to believe at NASA, NOAA or SWPC, Solar Cycle 24 is now between 15 and 24 months late not 15 months. . By that definition we are still in Solar Cycle 23 and have not yet reached solar minimum. If we don't see any more high latitude reverse polarity sunspots in the next two months look for SWPC to start marking revisions once again. I will keep my animation update as SWPC publishes monthly reports.

The longer the arrival time for solar minimum is the more likely Solar Cycle 24 will be weak. So keep watching the sun. Today's number is Zero!

Hi Mike

Maybe we are getting info from different sources but it is my understanding that solar cycle 24 is not likely to start until next year making it 24 months late. It should have started in Jan last year. But we are agreed on where we head.

There is no doubt that cycle 24 will be quiet...its just how quiet. I have postulated that we are in for an 'at least' Dalton event possibly a Maunder.

Thanks for your contribution....very welcome and well presented.

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

From Cryosphere Today website. Onwards and upwards for the ever colder Antarctic. :lol:

That's one hell of a starting point...Kiwis will be able to walk to Antarctica this SH spring

BFTP

[Michael Ronayne]

Maybe we are getting info from different sources but it is my understanding that solar cycle 24 is not likely to start until next year making it 24 months late.

The numbers I was quoting were the official party line at NASA, NOAA and SWPC. Your 2009 date may be much closer to reality.

The consensus view at SWPC was that Solar Minimum would occur in the December 2006 to January 2007 time frame, which by that measurement means that Solar Cycle 24 is 15 months late right now. The December 2006 data was selected back in December 2000 (see SWPC report PRF1322.pdf page 18) and was the official minimum data for 6 years. In the animation I posted previously, the SWPC graphic maintained December 2006 until be bitter end.

Watch the December 2006 minimum in the animation.

http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/solar_cycle_23.png

David Hathaway at NASA predicted a minimum at about September 2006.

http://web.archive.org/web/20060823002332/http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif

The same values can be seen in this text file.

Cycle 23 Sunspot Number Prediction

http://web.archive.org/web/20060823002242/http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict.txt

On March 6, 2006 NASA prematurely announced Solar Minimum, by two years as it now turns out. This is where I derive the 24 month late value from.

Solar Minimum has Arrived

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/06mar_solarminimum.htm

There is an interesting prediction just made by Jan Janssens, who is not an astrophysicists but a very serious amateur astronomer in Belgium. In his prediction, Janssens asserts that Solar Cycle 24 should not be expected prior to July 2008, and in all likelihood might take place only in the first half of 2009. I don't know anything about Janssens' credentials but given the track record of the SWPC wise men in Boulder Colorado I am not sure anyone can predict what is going to happen next. If Janssens is correct, Solar Cycle 24 could be over 3 years late at a minimum.

Read his report towards the bottom of this page.

http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Engwelc...

Astronomy and paleontology are some of the few areas where armatures are still making contributions to science, so I would not dismiss Janssens just yet. If Solar Cycle 24 doesn't start in the next two to three months I am going to begin taking Janssens very seriously. In which case, this forum is not going to have to worry about the lack of sea ice. There will be other problems but the lack of ice anywhere will not be one of them.

Mike

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I've now managed to message Michael Ronayne - have been away from computer for a few days. Don't have anything valuable to say though.

Created the animation on a computer I don't currently have access to. Don't think I had downloaded any other interesting images from CT, don't usually download images from CT.

Did not get a reply to my email to Dr Chapman. Any other way I can help, ask and I'll see if I can help.

Antarctic ice looks great!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The numbers I was quoting were the official party line at NASA, NOAA and SWPC. Your 2009 date may be much closer to reality.

The consensus view at SWPC was that Solar Minimum would occur in the December 2006 to January 2007 time frame, which by that measurement means that Solar Cycle 24 is 15 months late right now. The December 2006 data was selected back in December 2000 (see SWPC report PRF1322.pdf page 18) and was the official minimum data for 6 years. In the animation I posted previously, the SWPC graphic maintained December 2006 until be bitter end.

There is an interesting prediction just made by Jan Janssens, who is not an astrophysicists but a very serious amateur astronomer in Belgium. In his prediction, Janssens asserts that Solar Cycle 24 should not be expected prior to July 2008, and in all likelihood might take place only in the first half of 2009. I don't know anything about Janssens' credentials but given the track record of the SWPC wise men in Boulder Colorado I am not sure anyone can predict what is going to happen next. If Janssens is correct, Solar Cycle 24 could be over 3 years late at a minimum.

Astronomy and paleontology are some of the few areas where armatures are still making contributions to science, so I would not dismiss Janssens just yet. If Solar Cycle 24 doesn't start in the next two to three months I am going to begin taking Janssens very seriously. In which case, this forum is not going to have to worry about the lack of sea ice. There will be other problems but the lack of ice anywhere will not be one of them.

Mike

Hi Mike

Yes that falls in line nicely with my thoughts on this. Have a good read of Theodore Landscheidt [dead now since 2003] but there is some very good work there and accuracy is exceptional. If the cycle 24 starts this late spring/summer it is in line with Dalton minima. If its next year....we'll see.

BFTP

[Hiya]

Despite Grey Wolf's praying the Antartic ice continues in its above average state after a slight blip.

[Gray-Wolf]

Another cycle 24 sunspot has put in appearance confirming the 4th of jan start to cycle 24.............so much for a delayed start!

Hiya. It's now drawing towards winter down there so of course ice levels are growing. With the cold water upwelling ,caused by the increased circumpolar winds (see posts above), you would expect quite a rapid build of sea ice but as we found with the last shelf calve extra sea ice just brings more leverage to bare on the shelfs juncture with the coast (the longer the fulcrum the greater force can be applied)

Edited April 14, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[laserguy]

Another cycle 24 sunspot has put in appearance confirming the 4th of jan start to cycle 24.............so much for a delayed start!

It's still a very late start whichever way you look at it,let's hope that it doesn't prove to be a false dawn like the 4th Jan one. Remember,cycle 23 spots were appearing until very recently and until cycle 24 ones outnumber those of 23,we're still in the old cycle (not sure how long the spots of a cycle have to be absent for before it can be declared to be over,tbh). Antarctic ice is much up on this time last year -that's the facts of the matter,whichever way one cares to dress it up.

[Gray-Wolf]

It's still a very late start whichever way you look at it,let's hope that it doesn't prove to be a false dawn like the 4th Jan one. Remember,cycle 23 spots were appearing until very recently and until cycle 24 ones outnumber those of 23,we're still in the old cycle (not sure how long the spots of a cycle have to be absent for before it can be declared to be over,tbh). Antarctic ice is much up on this time last year -that's the facts of the matter,whichever way one cares to dress it up.

? If you check out what CT have to say you'll find ice levels are up to a week behind last years plot........funny that eh?