Latest Antarctic Ice Reports

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

If your tired of C.T.'s unrepresentative coverage here is a composite of Antarctica yesterday. Hard to see tghe ice eh? some fringing pack is still visible but if you compare ross and weddell with C.T.'s image you'll see why I'm so irked by them!

It's not just Cryosphere today.

MMBA

AMSR-E

and

Cryosphere Today

Have all been showing the same, or very close to each other.

I don't see any sea ice in your composite image. This is not because there isn't any but because the continent is superimposed over a navy background.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Over two million square kilometres of ice up on last year. Nethertheless if you look at the absolute ice total line you'll notice things are melting fast now.

[Gray-Wolf]

It would seem the recent storms over Weddell and Ross seas have flushed out a goodly proportion of shattered pack into the Southern Oceans over the last 3 days. Lets see what the reduction in 'swell damping' has on the remaining Larsen shelfs and Ross Embayment over the coming months.

I have not seen such a clear coast around Antarctica in all my years of watching! You could easily mistake it for a Feb picture (and if you check out the 'ice shelf images' site you can do just that!!!).

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

How can you say that. The charts show the Antarctic is currently over 2 million square kilometers of ice up on last year. About 1.8 million square kilometers above the average.

The excess ice this year must be completely unprecedented in extent for many years. I don't know where you are coming from. The charts do suggest the exact opposite to what you are saying, and in the most spectacular sense of the "exact opposite."

[Gray-Wolf]

Well maybe this will help clear up the mystery anomaly. All of the images are courtesy of NSDIC at

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ and http://nsidc.org/data/smmr_ssmi_ancillary/gis.html

Firstly sea ice area

and now current anoms

as you see the greatest anoms (+50% anoms) are in the areas with no sea ice (to the east of Weddell ,ice free since Oct and Ross ,ice free since Oct) as I have amply illustrated over the months with the aid of MODIS sat. images

I know the sea ice levels are correct as I can see that they are on a daily basis as I trawl through the images so why is this grossly inacurrate anoms plot being put out by the same agency? and ,more worryingly, why are so many folk content to accept such diss-information above the visible truth??? (why do they wish to , and project, sea ice concentrations that are not there?)

Most amazing (for me) is the 50%+ anom in the Ross sea (approaching their base at Mcmurdo) that has been ice free since Nov!!! So how much of the 1.7million sq km of positive anom is of this 'invisible ice' type.

I knew that my data was correct and finaly we have proof positive of the non-sense that the anom plots are and why cryosphere today are so wide of the mark with their images!

EDIT: For the maths heads out there ; What is greater than 50% more of nothing?

This was Ross at the start of Dec

Edited January 5, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

In fact , maybe if some of the folk who like to see nothing but the anom figures could wise us up as to how this can occur I for one would be most greatful!

And, as in English law, no answer will have to be taken as an answer....LOL!

[oldsnowywizard]

GW, im sorry but i think the images you have posted are a little misleading? i may be wrong.. but..

the following image, is based on the Dec average with a ref period of 1979-2000.

this is supposed to be used against this image,

there is obviously something fishy going on as the charts from ncep shows this as todays southern hemisphere sea ice levels..

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/hires/sh.xml which kind of matches the CT image..

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/antarctic.jpg

the image you showed above has no sea ice at all coming out of Ross until the sea, which doesnt match the above at all...

i dont think anyone is debating that each site will have a different way of calculating sea ice concentrations. i have looked through the archives on ncep at the same date going back since records began and i can quite clearly see there is more sea ice this year than at any point in the past from the same way of calaculating sea ice, from the same site, from the same satellite...

there is suposed to be roughly a month of hard melt before come feb the situation starts to slow down, i think it will be very interesting to see what happens down there when the cold temps kick in again..

[Gray-Wolf]

Oldsnowywizard

anomaly to the east of Weddell

Your 'sea ice extent' image from above of the same area

The Modis aqua image from 13:35 today of the same area.

Explain please.

[oldsnowywizard]

Gw the top image is the anomoly in concentrations as an average for Dec 07

the second image is the sea ice concentration as an average for Dec 07

the third image is an image taken from TODAY. yes there is less sea ice.. but surely to have a proper comparison you would need to take an

average of Sat images for the whole of DEC.. if this was a scientific experiment it would fail. i dont really know how else to say it..

[Gray-Wolf]

Gw the top image is the anomoly in concentrations as an average for Dec 07

the second image is the sea ice concentration as an average for Dec 07

the third image is an image taken from TODAY. yes there is less sea ice.. but surely to have a proper comparison you would need to take an

average of Sat images for the whole of DEC.. if this was a scientific experiment it would fail. i dont really know how else to say it..

I'm not searching for pedantry just an answer to a civil question.

I have been posting images (if you care to trawl back) since september of the Weddell sea and areas east and all show an ice free coast since the october storms with little if any sea ice (apart from well rounded bergs with clear water between).

I have plenty of other things to busy myself with but have found the gulf between 'actual' and 'reported' to worrying to leave alone.

The past two days have been cloudy around most of the antartic continent, apart from the west of the peninsula and down around Pine island but I will do my best to complile a good section of photo's of clear water where the +50% anoms supposedly reside.

Surely you can have no gripe of the Ross sea 'over-reporting' and if so I'd love to hear your 'understanding' of it.

I only have my eyes to work with but trust both my senses and the daily alterations I have witnessed since Aug.

http://environment.newscientist.com/channe...arctic-ice.html

My observations of the 'fragmentation event' around Aug 27th seem to have some backing in science it would seem.

A serious question. If you knew most of the finacial districts of the world (and many thousands of square miles of land below 5m above sea level) were about to be lost over the next 2 years but held no '100% proof' of the same who would you inform and what action do you feel would be sanctioned?

Edited January 5, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

A serious question. If you knew most of the finacial districts of the world (and many thousands of square miles of land below 5m above sea level) were about to be lost over the next 2 years but held no '100% proof' of the same who would you inform and what action do you feel would be sanctioned?

In the first instance this would be a question best put to the environmental change forum.

I'm going to tell a moderator to do it now.

[Gray-Wolf]

In the first instance this would be a question best put to the environmental change forum.

I'm going to tell a moderator to do it now.

A.F. We have been in discussion about the difference in what is actually happening down there as opposed to what is reported. If there is a discrepency then why?

It is so easy to see the discrepency this far into the season I wonder why you have still not noticed it, I mean, it is about Antarctic ice here on this thread is it not?

http://environment.newscientist.com/articl...ing-arctic.html

It would seem that the thing helping to melt the Arctic is even more prevalent in Antarctica......all that heat has to go somewhere eh?

Edited January 6, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[oldsnowywizard]

GW, i dont think your question is aimed me, i think it needs to be directed to CT, NCEP and all the other sites surely. i am open to suggestions and am not arguing that black is in fact white... all i am doing is comparing the current data provided and comparing it to previous data provided, coming to the conclusion based on the sources i use that the situation today is better than it has been since records began in the south.

remember the 50+ anomolies may no longer exist you would need to compare the average for Jan when those images are available with maybe the sat images from the 15th of Jan, when it arrives...

[Gray-Wolf]

Maybe your right O.S.W. , it would be an even queerer do if +50% anoms dissapeared in a month though wouldn't it?

As far as the plots on CT for ice anom/extent they seemed fine up until Sept when ,all of a sudden and against the conditions, the ice put on a 'surge' that in reality didn't happen ( the ice framented and drifted north around all the continent) so the start of the melt became the start of the 2million km2 'record'.

I'm sure common sense will prevail.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Nonsense to suggest anyone thinks new ice was created over the summer. You must think we are completely stupid.

It's utterly offensive.

What clearly happened was ice didn't melt as expected so we were left with more than usual coming into winter.

Unmelted ice was the source of the massive anomaly, not new ice. This is basic stuff.

Keep peddling madly though, I'm sure if you cycle harder you can put off the wobble and fall a while longer, perhaps to whenever the anomaly turns negative again!

[Mondy]

Airdrop rescues boat crew trapped in Antarctic ice

Monday January 7, 2008

The Guardian

A British deep-sea fishing boat which has been wedged in Antarctic pack ice for two weeks was running again last night after receiving an emergency airdrop.

An engine breakdown meant the 23-strong crew and two observers on the Argos Georgia had been unable to resume their pursuit of Patagonian toothfish in the Ross Sea since before Christmas. Two previous attempts to deliver a spare piston had failed, leaving those on board - including New Zealanders, South Africans, Spaniards and Russians - to while away the time playing cards.

Yesterday a US air force C-17 Globemaster finally managed to drop the replacement part on to pack ice beside the ship from 120 metres (400ft) overhead...........

Conditions this year in the Antarctic have meant the area is almost entirely covered with ice, Thomson explained. "By January, normally there are a lot of icebergs but you can navigate around them," he said. "This year, it is still 95% covered with ice."

Soon be winter there too!

Edited January 7, 2008 by Mondy

[davehsug]

Airdrop rescues boat crew trapped in Antarctic ice

Soon be winter there too!

Obviously a planted story by some government or other. We know there isn't that much ice there......don't we?

Edited January 7, 2008 by davehsug

[oldsnowywizard]

i must admit this thread makes entertaining reading!.. AFT i dont think GW is implying we are stupid. GW can you please backup things like that with proof.. after reveiwing a number of different sources, i genuinely believe that conditions around in Antarctica have been colder than normal...

on a daily basis i check the below, and its always had areas of -5 to -15 degree anomolies....

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/sfc...er_07b.fnl.html

however i am willing to agree that based on sat images that GW has posted some areas are not 100% ice, which may be otherwise shown by other maps and charts of the area...

however if using the same website i am sure that there is more ice this year in comparision to other years.

GW im just wondering if there is an archives of sat photos showing your favourite areas over the last few years.. could you post any of them.. say take a random sample from 1990 to 2007? and dont include the ross shelf.. we all know that cracked and vanished.... maye its the melt water from this which is causing the colder conditions?

interesting to see another source claiming sea ice conditions are different to last year...

HA just seen the CT site, we may have to eat our words AFT! if CT come back and say that they yet again had to change the charts then im personally going to write to them and tell them not to bother with the website.

Edited January 8, 2008 by oldsnowywizard

[Gray-Wolf]

Yup Old snowy! According to the good folk out there we lost 5 million sq km over december (half the ice???) eating 1/2 million sq km off the +'ve anom.

If this was 'solid pack' it would be phenominal loss, if it were fragmented bergs (already ablated to a thin crust from the bottom in the anomalous sst's then it wouldn't would it? (just like the bearing/Chuki ice losses in Dec).

I cannot 'blame' folk for seeing what they wish to see, especially when it is a 'novel' event. I would imagine that the crash in sea ice levels will lead to folk re-examining the season and expect my observations to be confirmed. I just wish folk would use their nouse and look themselves when info is available instead of relying on others to look. None of you are so thick that you need that level of spoon feeding so 'motivations' have to be questioned. It is never easy to stand up and say the majority is wrong, always easier to stand with the masses and sing their song eh?

Mondy. With the early drift of the fragmented pack the ice extent 'grew' in sept after it had started it's seasonal decline in late aug (check CT's records if you trust them). According to that site it put on another 2 million sq km of coverage before it finally started to decline (strangely the size of positive anom they showed.....until mid dec). Your ship had probably run into this 'spread out pack' and who's going to say "it was me, I was a plonker" when they can blame the wrong kind of snow (or ice)?

Edited January 10, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[oldsnowywizard]

i would have thought the peak ice growth would be in september anyway GW? just after the peak of winter, after all in the artic peak ice tends to be in March...

anyway we shall see what happens to the charts of CT in the next few weeks...

Edited January 10, 2008 by oldsnowywizard

[Mr Sleet]

I see Antarctic ice still 1 million sqkm above 1979-2000 mean and nearly 2 million sqkm greater than this time last year. This with the Arctic recovering to close to the 79-00 mean means it's looking good for the cryosphere. :lol:

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I see Antarctic ice still 1 million sqkm above 1979-2000 mean and nearly 2 million sqkm greater than this time last year. This with the Arctic recovering to close to the 79-00 mean means it's looking good for the cryosphere.

Astonishing. Barely believable. Way beyond all expectations.

BTW did anyone else see the Top Gear special over Christmas? Don't know if it was a new episode but Jeremy Clarkson & Co drove to the north pole in a 4x4. The little guy raced them there on a husky-driven sleigh. Fantastic.

[Gray-Wolf]

Astonishing. Barely believable. Way beyond all expectations.

BTW did anyone else see the Top Gear special over Christmas? Don't know if it was a new episode but Jeremy Clarkson & Co drove to the north pole in a 4x4. The little guy raced them there on a husky-driven sleigh. Fantastic.

See it while you can???

How puerile.

[Gray-Wolf]

Before the final analysis is published (and for the tastes and delectation of AFT) I'll repost my observations of what occurred in Aug 2007 in the Antarctic and highlight the occurrence with current studies.

Around Aug 25th Antarctic sea ice reached it's maximum for the year and a slow decline became apparent. Aug 27th-29th was the full moon and had the highest tides (apart from those 29 and a quarter days later). It would appear that the tide on the full moon disrupted the ice pack surrounding the antarctic continent. As we know the strong Katabatic winds that blow off Antarctica tends to push the pack ice away from the coast and out into the southern oceans. This is what occurred to the disrupted ice pack.

If you are a purveyor of C.T. data you'll see that ice extent (and anomaly) increased by 2 million sq km over the next 3 weeks as the further limit of the ice was pushed further and further away from the coast.

By October 23rd ( the 'spring tide') a berg about the size of greater London Calved from the Pine Glacier whilst still mid pack (as reported by B.A.S.) and is still 'ice logged'.

By December both the coastal strip of the Weddell sea and the majority of the Ross sea were totally ice free (whilst ice extent 'masks' were showing over 50% ice cover) a simple 'look' would prove otherwise.

Be it my critical E-Mail,or many other critical E-Mails,in Dec. C.T. admitted a problem.

All of a sudden Antarctic ice (since mid Dec.) has undergone record ice loss.

Whadya think?

[osmposm]

....did anyone else see the Top Gear special over Christmas? Don't know if it was a new episode but Jeremy Clarkson & Co drove to the north pole in a 4x4. The little guy raced them there on a husky-driven sleigh. Fantastic.

Yes, I did, and "& Co" is the operative phrase - they had specially (and majorly) adapted cars, and a big support team to repair them when they broke down, and help dig through the impassable sections of ice/snow. Bit silly, really, but amusing enough when you've had enough beers.

Even sillier is that they rather avoided mentioning that they were only driving to the magnetic North Pole, not the geographic one which is around 500 miles away currently, I believe (and further north). And even sillier still, they drove to where the magnetic North Pole was in 1996, several hundred miles away (and well south) of where it actually was when they made their epic journey early last year.

(Sorry, this is absolutely nothing to do with the Antarctic, but I did think AFT's rapturous admiration for the exercise needed a splash of cold, icy water )

Edited January 11, 2008 by osmposm