October 2007 CET

[West is Best]

Warm start to November though...

Moose

No, it's what KW would call backdoor cold. The mins will suppress the mild maxima somewhat. So nothing too warm overall.

[jemtom]

Thats going to be extremely close. However, it wouldn't have if the significant warmth you called for earlier in the month came off

BFTP

Well even I don't get everything right...

[West is Best]

We'll definitely be up above 11.1 after today

It won't be above 11.1C ... at least not on Manley.

It's 11.0C now. To get to 11.15C and hence a roundup to 11.2C would require today's minima and maxima to average 15.2C. We didn't even manage to average that this June.

It will finish on either 10.8C or 10.9C by Manley.

Edited October 28, 2007 by West is Best

[Stu_London]

Amazingly, 23 members have guessed in the range of 10.8 to 11.1 which means every 0.1C is going to have vital importance, especially at the top of the leaderboard (most of whom have all shot a little low, by the looks of things)

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well even I don't get everything right...

Lol

BFTP

It won't be above 11.1C ... at least not on Manley.

It's 11.0C now. To get to 11.15C and hence a roundup to 11.2C would require today's minima and maxima to average 15.2C. We didn't even manage to average that this June.

It will finish on either 10.8C or 10.9C by Manley.

Manley is what we go by.

BFTP

[Stu_London]

Lol

BFTP

Manley is what we go by.

BFTP

Hadley might finish lower - it has a knoack of losing 0.2C or 0.3C from provisional on the last day, regardless of the prevailing conditions

[Stratos Ferric]

It won't be above 11.1C ... at least not on Manley.

It's 11.0C now. To get to 11.15C and hence a roundup to 11.2C would require today's minima and maxima to average 15.2C. We didn't even manage to average that this June.

It will finish on either 10.8C or 10.9C by Manley.

I didn't say it would be 11.2, I said above 11.1. Today's uplift should be more than 1C, and I'm assuming we're above 11.00C now. We aren't going to get to 11.2, but the extra today will probably be enough to stop a downward movement on Monday. Thereafter, more than 0.1C per day is a big ask.

[Stratos Ferric]

I didn't say it would be 11.2, I said above 11.1. Today's uplift should be more than 1C, and I'm assuming we're above 11.00C now. We aren't going to get to 11.2, but the extra today will probably be enough to stop a downward movement on Monday. Thereafter, more than 0.1C per day is a big ask.

...particularly given that the 18z run has put a slightly different, and dare I say more realistic, spin on things. Possibly an interesting portent of things to come in November: cold nearby, but as has often been the case in recent years, just held to the north or nudge out to the east.

[Snowly does it]

...particularly given that the 18z run has put a slightly different, and dare I say more realistic, spin on things.

The 18z isn't out yet

11.0 is the mark, possibly 10.9 (Manley)

Hadley to be 11.0 or 11.1 MINUS whatever it decides to hack away at the end of the month (if it follows that recent pattern)

[Stratos Ferric]

Amazingly, 23 members have guessed in the range of 10.8 to 11.1 which means every 0.1C is going to have vital importance, especially at the top of the leaderboard (most of whom have all shot a little low, by the looks of things)

If I was swapping shoes with anyone at the top of the board this month it would be Beng, but ACB and JackO should make good moves upwards. One or two look like dropping fairly smartly out of the top ten.

The 18z isn't out yet

11.0 is the mark, possibly 10.9 (Manley)

Hadley to be 11.0 or 11.1 MINUS whatever it decides to hack away at the end of the month (if it follows that recent pattern)

Sorry, I meant the 18z published update, the 12z run.

Overall this month has certainly behaved pretty much as expected from a long way out, notwithstanding the odd run that has proved to be a [fairly typical GFS] distraction.

[J10]

Amazingly, 23 members have guessed in the range of 10.8 to 11.1 which means every 0.1C is going to have vital importance, especially at the top of the leaderboard (most of whom have all shot a little low, by the looks of things)

Indeed, I've done the provisional figures and it's very tight. As an example if the figure came in at 10.9c, you would be around 3rd, but 11.0c or higher and you would be around 10th.

Stangely you would likely to be 5th if it came in at 10.7c your actual guess.

Very Close this month.

[Stu_London]

Indeed, I've done the provisional figures and it's very tight. As an example if the figure came in at 10.9c, you would be around 3rd, but 11.0c or higher and you would be around 10th.

Stangely you would likely to be 5th if it came in at 10.7c your actual guess.

Very Close this month.

Bring on the 10.9C then in that case.

I suspect Beng would be 1st and Osmpsom 2nd in that scenario - am I right?

[SP1986]

My 13.0 prediction really is going to drop me from a great height. Not a bad position at the moment, but this month is going to have me freefalling probably mid table

[BornFromTheVoid]

So how does the points system work for this CET guessing game? Coz my guess of 11C is looking quite good for once

Edited October 28, 2007 by slipknotsam

[J10]

Bring on the 10.9C then in that case.

I suspect Beng would be 1st and Osmpsom 2nd in that scenario - am I right?

The Provisional Figures would be.

Beng would be 1st (Guess 10.8c)

phil n.warks. would be 2nd. (Guess 10.7c)

Osmposm would be 5th. (Guess 10.8c)

[Stratos Ferric]

This thread is very amusing; I can't help affording myself a wry smile as I read back from the start.

[osmposm]

The Provisional Figures would be.

Beng would be 1st (Guess 10.8c)

phil n.warks. would be 2nd. (Guess 10.7c)

Osmposm would be 5th. (Guess 10.8c)

I'm confused, Jackone. I think I'm a whisker ahead of Stu at the moment. How could he overtake me if my guess this month turns out to be closer than his? Or does the convoluted (but splendid) scoring sytem make that possible?!

Anyway, I shall wait for the real figure. And If I do go up the table, incidentally, it'll be nothing to do with any skill or prescience on my part. All I've done recently, as far as I remember, is guess slightly above the mean. Boring, but apparently effective!

[Stu_London]

I'm confused, Jackone. I think I'm a whisker ahead of Stu at the moment. How could he overtake me if my guess this month turns out to be closer than his? Or does the convoluted (but splendid) scoring sytem make that possible?!

Anyway, I shall wait for the real figure. And If I do go up the table, incidentally, it'll be nothing to do with any skill or prescience on my part. All I've done recently, as far as I remember, is guess slightly above the mean. Boring, but apparently effective!

It might be to do with the fact I missed two months which means my average is increasingly - but I am in the dark as you are to be honest

[West is Best]

This thread is very amusing; I can't help affording myself a wry smile as I read back from the start.

Not half as big a smile as the one I had reading back through the September one I'll be bound!

No update on Manley so who knows? But chillywilly out there at the mo. Shawbury is at 4C, and that's near one of the official stations. As I said yesterday, 10.9C or 10.8C twill be.

[jemtom]

Not half as big a smile as the one I had reading back through the September one I'll be bound!

No update on Manley so who knows? But chillywilly out there at the mo. Shawbury is at 4C, and that's near one of the official stations. As I said yesterday, 10.9C or 10.8C twill be.

Nah, I said 11.0c, therefore 11.0c it will be... :o

No wonder SF has found this fred very amusing, if only professional sportmen showed this level of passion and commitment we'd be world champs at everything.... :lol:

[Weather-history]

Hadley is 11.2 but since May, the provisional value has been above the final figure.

Edited October 29, 2007 by Mr_Data

[Stratos Ferric]

Not half as big a smile as the one I had reading back through the September one I'll be bound!

...

I wouldn't be so sure! Sauce for the goose and sauce for the gander and all that. Anyway, it's good that you've finally taken your advice to me from last month and given up all this nonsense about sub 10 / 10.2 / 10.6...

The detail in the devil continues to evolve, and the warm sector is now more dominant over the next couple of days. Coupled with decent flow and perhaps some cloud, minima look being a notch up on previous forecasts after all - witness the W coast last night. IN addition all three days look like being warmer than progged.

Below 11.0 now looks very unlikely and 11.1 on a rounding can't be dismissed. My slightly cautious projected outcome is now around 10.04.

I'm confused, Jackone. I think I'm a whisker ahead of Stu at the moment. How could he overtake me if my guess this month turns out to be closer than his? Or does the convoluted (but splendid) scoring sytem make that possible?!

Anyway, I shall wait for the real figure. And If I do go up the table, incidentally, it'll be nothing to do with any skill or prescience on my part. All I've done recently, as far as I remember, is guess slightly above the mean. Boring, but apparently effective!

It's not possible to overtake somebody above you if they perform better than you on a particular month.

[Don]

Well, October looks like finishing at 11C. Slightly above average, but still a full 2C lower than the last two Octobers. If November follows suit, we will be looking at an Autumn very close to average temperature wise.

:lol:

[SP1986]

Once again I must draw upon the fact that we've had a long run of double figure CET finishes of course crafted by the very high April CET - Obviously unless we get a record November (or near) that will end with this month. In fact the rolling mean temperature should be plummeting around about now.

If we got an exceptionally warm November, and finished in double figures (very unlikely), that would be one of the all time 'feats' for the warming trend (ie 8 months of double figure CET months).

Of course I'm not suggesting in any way that November will have a CET of 10C, however what I am suggesting is that if it were the case, that would be extremely remarkable!

[Optimus Prime]

Below 11.0 now looks very unlikely and 11.1 on a rounding can't be dismissed. My slightly cautious projected outcome is now around 10.04.

Don't be so sure, the provisional final estimate is usually edited downwards.

Tonight looks cold, widely down to 4c or 5c, 2c or 3c below the current minima average. Tomorrows maxima look to be around 13.0c. So 5 + 14 /2 = 9.5c. Perhaps a tidy drop by tommorow (around 0.1c)

Tomorrow night looks a little chilly again with 7c generally. But a warmer day tomorrow, around 16c so the CET shouldn't move at all.

The final figure for me will be below 11.0c.