White Christmas

[Essan]

Odd of 6/1 mean a likelihood of a white Christmas every six years - so, if the same odds apply for 6 years running, you'd expect to win once ....

I'd say the odds sound about right. Obviously they'll change once we get an indication of whether a white Christmas is likely this year. Ask again in December .....

[stormforce 10]

Any talk of a white christmas at this stage is a bit silly, whatever the odds lets just wait until at least a week before the big day.

Regards

Les

a week before the big day would mean the odds would be crap if the weather forecasters are predicting a snowy xmas.

oh yeah and anybody that puts a bet on a week before xmas and the weather forecasters are predicting mild wind and rain are completely mad.

Edited September 30, 2007 by stormforce 10

[kippure]

Now is the time to be going into your local bookies and placing your bets

[Stratos Ferric]

Odd of 6/1 mean a likelihood of a white Christmas every six years - so, if the same odds apply for 6 years running, you'd expect to win once ....

I'd say the odds sound about right. Obviously they'll change once we get an indication of whether a white Christmas is likely this year. Ask again in December .....

Accepting that the bookies tend to set in their favour, whilst still wanting to tempt a market, the fact that the odds tends to cover mutiple sites nationwide, and given a cool summer leading potentially to a completely inappropriate extrapolation in the minds of the unknowing, 6-1 looks fair.

What it masks is a long term reality of around 20-1 in the south and 10-1 in the north. There was a run in the 90s of slightly higher frequency christmas wintriness, but that may have passed now. Finally, the fact that December scarcely ever resembles a winter month now - in terms of weather - doesn't help.

[snow raven]

The thing with the UK (and maybe just England as a whole, as a white christmas doesnt appear to happen as much as the rest of the UK) is we are fed every year with these victorian Christmas cards that give the impression that snow at Christmas (or the holiday season) is a common occurance.

But even with or without arguements about Global Warming - is a white Christmas really that common? Or are we fed that impression thanks to Christmas cards, films etc to do with that time of year?

Maybe Mr Data could give some figures for the past 100 - 150 years as to how common a white christmas is?

[NorthantsSnow]

What has the CFS been showing for the festive period?

[suffolkboy_]

Just for interest value, here is what was predicted way back on the 21st June, i've had it stored away just to see if its anything like the final outcome.

[Snow_Fan_Man]

Oooh, i wouldn't mind that sufflok.

[Stratos Ferric]

The thing with the UK (and maybe just England as a whole, as a white christmas doesnt appear to happen as much as the rest of the UK) is we are fed every year with these victorian Christmas cards that give the impression that snow at Christmas (or the holiday season) is a common occurance.

But even with or without arguements about Global Warming - is a white Christmas really that common? Or are we fed that impression thanks to Christmas cards, films etc to do with that time of year?

Maybe Mr Data could give some figures for the past 100 - 150 years as to how common a white christmas is?

THe figures are roughly exactly as I gave them above: about 1:20 in the south, 1:10 in the north, slightly better still in N Scotland (1:8 or so), though as with all these things the gaps are not nice and even, and when it does snow, it tends not to do so nationwide. TWS keeps the best data for snowfall I do believe.

[Damien]

About 100/1. I do not think England will ever see a white Christmas again, by that I mean either snow falling & settling, or lying snow. A shame, I know, especially for the kids, but that is the way it is. My own guess is it will be dry, cloudy & mild with an anticyclone across Biscay & N. France with temps averaging 10C. In fact, I believe the whole winter will be dry, cloudy & mild, similiar to 1988/9, i.e. a half decent winter

Well said.

Difference for me is I'll be in the Alps soon.

Suffolkboy_- one good way to tell if a coming forecast will be proven verified (though this is not always the case - à la NOAA, Ian Currie, BG, etc.) is if the previous few months (prior to now - Oct. 1) have been (generally) correct. And have they been so far?

[Schnee]

Christmas "things" are appearing in the shops.

Will we have some Christmas smileys for the festive season?

I was in a pub yesterday which had it's Christmas tree up.

With this cool weather, i could've easily forgot it was September.

[Scarf-Carrot-Coal]

Christmas Day will be in the 30's again same as last year. There is not a chance of a single flake of snow here!

[Weather-history]

Maybe Mr Data could give some figures for the past 100 - 150 years as to how common a white christmas is?

Try this link.

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/metinfo/snowxmas.htm

Nearer the festive season, I will be posting Times reports on some famous white Christmases of the past.

Edited October 1, 2007 by Mr_Data

[Coast]

We could all try the art of positive thinking! With over 6600 members at least 75% must surely want a White Christmas and if we could direct those positive thoughts......

I mean, you do all believe in Father Christmas - don't you?

[M'Lady]

The thing with the UK (and maybe just England as a whole, as a white christmas doesnt appear to happen as much as the rest of the UK) is we are fed every year with these victorian Christmas cards that give the impression that snow at Christmas (or the holiday season) is a common occurance.

But even with or without arguements about Global Warming - is a white Christmas really that common? Or are we fed that impression thanks to Christmas cards, films etc to do with that time of year?

Maybe Mr Data could give some figures for the past 100 - 150 years as to how common a white christmas is?

THe figures are roughly exactly as I gave them above: about 1:20 in the south, 1:10 in the north, slightly better still in N Scotland (1:8 or so), though as with all these things the gaps are not nice and even, and when it does snow, it tends not to do so nationwide. TWS keeps the best data for snowfall I do believe.

We expect it to snow beacuse of the Christmas cards, the films and tv shows...

I only remember snow on Christmas day once in my lifetime, and that was a couple of years ago. However the Young Lords also remember snow on Christmas day once too so they don't realise how rare it is!

Christmas Day will be in the 30's again same as last year. There is not a chance of a single flake of snow here!

Shush!

We could all try the art of positive thinking! With over 6600 members at least 75% must surely want a White Christmas and if we could direct those positive thoughts......

I mean, you do all believe in Father Christmas - don't you?

Avalanche for Mr Coast...!

You're not expecting to get anything other than a lump of coal are you, Coastie?

[Coast]

You're not expecting to get anything other than a lump of coal are you, Coastie?

I thought I get my real present on Boxing day like the other servants M'Lady

[Essan]

The last widespread white Christmas was ..... 2004. There was snow a few days later in 2005.

I also saw snow (well, sleet actually) fall on Christmas day in the Cotswolds in 1999 and a believe a couple of the following years saw snowfall just before or just after Christmas but my records don;t go back that far (and my memory even less!. In fact, I'd say that over the past decade, the end of December has been second only to the end of February in terms of likelihood for snowfall.

That's obviously a SW Midland bias btw

[Snowyowl9]

The weather last xmas was crap, i hope its better this year,cold and frosty would do me fine.

It was cold though last christmas well christmas eve was colder as we had a frost as boxing day was cold too at only 2.2c

At least it wasn`t as depressingly warm as this day.

This was the warmest xmas I always remember it was exceptionally mild.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119881225.gif

The last white christmas I`ve seen was 2004 and one of the best but there was quite a run in the 90`s hardly any in the 80`s if any as I remember as a child they all came in the 90`s and I was thrilled.

Except 1981 the only cold christmas with snow on the ground but not falling.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119811225.gif

1976 was another it seems can`t remember snow then but do remember the hot summer previous.

[NorthantsSnow]

Is a re-run of Christmas Day 1970 this year too much to ask, do you think?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119701225.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00219701225.gif

[grab my graupel]

Is a re-run of Christmas Day 1970 this year too much to ask, do you think?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119701225.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00219701225.gif

I must say Dan I wouldn't mind some of that this year.

Interesting to note though looking at that 850hpa chart that the coldest air just misses my area

[weather eater]

I have a very simple take on this, I can hardly remember a white christmas in my 45 years so my expectation of there being on this year is next to zero. On saying that now I'm living in the NW my chances are slightly higher but not much I suspect

[saint]

i have seen it snow on xmas eve and i think it actually settled and it was a white christmas!

i hope another this year :lol:

saint

[NorthantsSnow]

I must say Dan I wouldn't mind some of that this year.

Interesting to note though looking at that 850hpa chart that the coldest air just misses my area

Just for you then Brian:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00219701227.gif

[johnholmes]

Try this link.

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/metinfo/snowxmas.htm

Nearer the festive season, I will be posting Times reports on some famous white Christmases of the past.

yes a fascinating link from an old colleague. His site is stuffed full of first class weather info, technical and non technical, to be recommended.

[laserguy]

There's probably more chance of me finding a chocolate covered Kylie in my stocking than waking up to a white Xmas.