Member's Winter Forecasts

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Well,

I have released my winter forecast a week early and here it is;

Winter_2007_Forecast.doc

I have had real difficulty as ever over the winter period, so beyond January i have really not clue, but that is represented in the forecast confidence levels, but i think it is worth a look, especially for December wise.

Here is meto's updated winter forecast: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/season...07_8/index.html

And of course post yours!

Many Thanks

SM06

Edited November 23, 2007 by SNOW-MAN2006

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Thanks for that SM.

I could put up with that, a good snowy spell in Dec and Feb :lol:

[Mark Bayley]

Good forecast snowman2006. I enjoyed reading it and hope it goes well

Mark :lol:

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Thanks for that SM.

I could put up with that, a good snowy spell in Dec and Feb :lol:

Glad you liked it, but as with anyones forecast it is definately not gospel and is only someones interpretation so with a bit of luck mine will hoepfully come off, but i wont not be suprised at all if it didnt :)

SM06

[BristolBlizzard]

I liked your forecast.

I've got a really big feeling it's going to be like last year, pretty identical. I think there will be a random cold snowy spell at the very end of this month. If you remember last year I don't think anybody predicted that northerly we had on the 28th November, which brought quite widespread snow to the UK, including me

As like last year I think the whole of December and January will be mild and wet with the old cold snap not coming to much. Maybe widespread frosts but only isolated snow to hills. And I think we will have some decent snowfall within the first 2 weeks of Feb.

That's my instinct forecast :lol:

Edited November 23, 2007 by BristolBlizzard

[West is Best]

I'm not doing a formal forecast this year because I'm convinced the weather is going to do all the talking necessary. I base this on jet patterns and cycles, including La Nina.

There will be serious cold spells, with some heavy snow at times causing widespread disruption, and overall despite occasionally milder interludes this will be a cold and snowy winter. People will talk of this as they do of 1978/9.

Get ready! :lol:

[saint]

my forcast is snow/cold

Edited November 23, 2007 by saint

[Geordiesnow]

I'm not doing a formal forecast this year because I'm convinced the weather is going to do all the talking necessary. I base this on jet patterns and cycles, including La Nina.

There will be serious cold spells, with some heavy snow at times causing widespread disruption, and overall despite occasionally milder interludes this will be a cold and snowy winter. People will talk of this as they do of 1978/9.

Get ready! :lol:

You better hope you are right WiB because you could get a right slating if all does not go to planm of corse i hope you are right to.

Good forecast snowman - an interesting read there.

[Mammatus]

I'll release my LRF on Sunday evening This could be a Winter to remember for the right reasons! :lol:

Mammatus

Edited November 23, 2007 by Mammatus

[kold weather]

I suspect December and Jan will be fairly close to the average though December may end up a touch above and Jan a touch below and as La Nina weakens further and stratospheric warming kicks in I think we could well have a fairly chilly Feb, probably as cold as March 06 was compared to its normal though depending on the cold pool tothe north at the time I wouldn't be surprised if its colder still!

Edited November 24, 2007 by kold weather

[Anti-Mild]

I suspect December and Jan will be fairly close to the average though December may end up a touch above and Jan a touch below and as La Nina weakens further and stratospheric warming kicks in I think we could well have a fairly chilly Feb, probably as cold as March 06 was compared to its normal though depending on the cold pool tothe north at the time I wouldn't be surprised if its colder still!

Those are pretty much my thoughts as well KW. December is going to test the patience of most on here and I reckon it'll end up slightly above average, but still with some snow, particularly in the lead up to New Year. January might be the coldest since 2001 but maybe only just into the 3's. February may just, IMO, be the coldest month since December 1995 and may even surpass that.

This is of course dependent on La Nina weakening to low-moderate levels (which it is forecast to do).

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Week 1

A Scandi HP will be in place with LP to the west winds variable S'ly, SE'ly and SW'ly quite cold/chilly in the SE but less so in the west and North. During the first week the LP will will try and assert its influence hence the variable wind direction and temps will slightly increase as they turn more SW'ly. This is where height rises over Svalbard region come in as it will prevent the LP swinging NE to that region. Rain will edge in from the west and this to-ing and fro-ing will be the general theme.

Week 2

The Scandi HP will form a link with a GHP and winds will be more SE'ly so feeling pretty cool. LP and fronts still affecting western half of the UK with snow over the Scottish mountains. Pressure remains high to the N and NE and becoming cold in Scotland but milder in the south. Period of 10-14 is period of peak energy and a deep area of LP will bring a spell of wet and very windy weather to all areas and pushes the cold weather away NE and a milder few days set in with temps around 10-12c in the south. This spell will be mostly felt in the heart of the UK [CET zone] southwards and it is likely to push through the UK and as it does so winds veer to N/NE'ly bringing the cold air NE of the UK southwards.

Week 3

A cold week for all as the winds are NE'ly affecting the whole of the UK as the LP sinks south into the near continent with snow showers penetrating inland from the east until a HP ridge nudges/topples in and settles things down bringing cold and frosty nights as the week comes to a close. A rebuilding HP in the southern Scandinavia region absorbs the ridge as it begins to retrogress NW and winds turn easterly. Raw and cold SE'ly winds set in over the southern UK as the pressure builds over Greenland and the Atlantic gets held at bay as the GHP ridges south.

Week 4

This sets up a very interesting approach to Christmas as another period of peak energy approaches betwen 24-30. With blocking in place LPs can only approach the UK from the SW. A strong LP will approach and bring a period of wet and windy weather with snow turning to rain as it makes inroads to the UK. However, the blocking will not be shifted and a wave of LPs will try to make inroads with each becoming slightly more intense and very wintry weather will affect north of say the M4 so a potential white Christmas for these areas northwards but more likely Pennines north for 'snow hotspots', southern counties although cold will be wet as the milder air makes inroads.

It is around the 28th when the strongest LP will affect the UK but blocking to the north is very strong and established and very strong/gale force SE'ly winds affect the south west and south of the UK. However, there is only one way for this LP to go...eastwards

Progressively getting colder with a mild interlude mid month and very cold approach to the New Year so CET around 3.5 TO 4.5c. I am confident of the strom potential and the way the arctic is setting itself up I think the storm potential is more likely for the southern areas than the north as I think blocking in the right place is evidencing itself.

regards

BFTP

This is in my Dec thoughts in the internet/media forecasts thread so I've dragged it across. I'm going to do a monthly forecast instead of a winter one.

BFTP

[Rustynailer]

I think this winter will start after Christmas day has passed, may be even as late as the first week of January. I say winter will start, because when it is written in to history, thats what "they" will say Total chaos at first, as people who have not seen a proper winter have to get to grips with it. In a nutshell it will be a classic snowy cold Beast of a winter. I expect snow even as far out as March and April too. Oh yes and Jan and Feb besides snow will be remembered for frost all day long Of course TEITS will have his BEAST FROM THE EAST at last

Russ

[Zenarcher]

weathermaster weather forecast for december

Northern Scotland: For the first half of the month mostly sunny with showers also stormy at times, the second half of the month looking more cloudy and more rain also stormy at times.

Western Scotland: For the first half of the month mostly cloudy and rain also stormy at times, the second half of the month looking more calm and less rain.

Southern Scotland: For the first half of the month mosly cloudy with a chance of showers also breezy at times, the second half looking windy and dry.

Eastern Scotland: For the first half of the month mostly sunny and dry but windy at times, for the second half looking more cloudy with showers also windy.

Northern England: For the first half of the month mostly looking cloudy and windy, for the second half looking more sunny and calmer.

Western England: For the first half of the month looking mostly rain and breezy, for the second half looking dry and still breezy.

Southern England: For the first half of the month looking mostly rain and calm, for the second half looking dry and stormy.

Eastern England: For the first half of the month looking mostly rain and windy, for the second half looking dry and stormy at times.

Midlands England: For the first half of the month looking mostly rain and windy, for the second half looking cloudy and calmer.

Wales: For the fist half of the month looking like it ill be showers and windy, for the second half looking more sunny days but more stormy.

Thanks For Reading

By weathermaster

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Good forecasts so far.... no more?

:lol:

SM06

[swfc]

My take on the coming winter is December will be generally mild windy and wet. Jan will start the same but turning colder mid month with the chance of snow before becoming mild.Feb pretty mixed but around average.But March for me will be the coldest month with quite a bit of snow.Just to note i was talking to paul Hudson at a book signing and he hinted that there may be some severe cold post xmas and into Jan.Look to the east were is own words so who knows.

[Devon-Nelly]

I've just added my winter forecast on my profile,if anybody wants to have a nosey, though its very basic as im still alittle uncertain past December, so im doing an update on 20th December with regards to the Stratospheric warming and la nina.

As for December, i reckon it'll be quite mild and unsettled for most of the first two weeks, though i think we may get a possible cool/cold spell around the 9th or 10th, though it will be brief. Continuing mild-average and unsettled, until the 19th when i think we may get a second breif cold spell, but returning slightly milder in the run up to xmas, and then i think either on xmas eve or boxing day another cold spell will begin, and this one continuing right through till new year, when milder air will try to push in, but not getting very far. Very cold though last week, with some significant snow possible.

Janurary & February at the moment i think look pretty cold and snow but with breif mild spells, but february i think looks like being a very cold, and quite dry month. But if the stratospheric warming kicks in late December, then Janurary could well be very cold and snowy.

so abit uncertain still :lol:

Edited December 2, 2007 by Devon-Nelly

[Roger J Smith]

My winter forecast, mainly on the mild side but perhaps with one very memorable break to colder in January --

December quite mild and occasionally stormy throughout the month, any cold or snow likely to be brief and confined to a day or two mid-month, warming up even further, to around 14-15 C, around Christmas to about the 28th, possibly turning sharply colder just at the end of the month. Have said 5.5 for CET but won't be too surprised if it's low sixes.

January a more variable month, with potential for one big blast of winter weather mid-month. Volatile blocking conditions near the North Pole would have to eddy around to just the right orientation to let this loose on Europe, as in 1987, but it does seem possible and I rate the chances as about 50-50. If this happens, it will drag the CET down below average into the 2s or 3s, because if the cold comes, it may be deep and sustained cold for 7-10 days with one or two big snowfall events. The first and last few days of the month are more likely to be mild though, so a balance will develop between extremes, the monthly CET of about 3.5 predicted here may not reflect any actual segment of the month. The new moon event around 6-8 may usher in the cold spell, and the northern max full moon events 20-23 Jan may be embedded in the cold spell and bring snow. If not, these would likely be windstorms of a WNW orientation. Unless these strong energy peaks hit a recombining jet, there is probably going to be a major wind event around this time.

February looks like turning much warmer than I expect January to be, or on the other hand, staying very mild if I have that wrong ... so look for a near-record February, possibly as warm as 7.5 C, with some individual days near 18 C also setting daily records. Reason -- any temporary blocking in January will soon reposition to eastern Europe and induce a southerly flow in western Europe. A very early spring for gardeners and other outdoor interests.

[damianslaw]

My winter forecast, mainly on the mild side but perhaps with one very memorable break to colder in January --

December quite mild and occasionally stormy throughout the month, any cold or snow likely to be brief and confined to a day or two mid-month, warming up even further, to around 14-15 C, around Christmas to about the 28th, possibly turning sharply colder just at the end of the month. Have said 5.5 for CET but won't be too surprised if it's low sixes.

January a more variable month, with potential for one big blast of winter weather mid-month. Volatile blocking conditions near the North Pole would have to eddy around to just the right orientation to let this loose on Europe, as in 1987, but it does seem possible and I rate the chances as about 50-50. If this happens, it will drag the CET down below average into the 2s or 3s, because if the cold comes, it may be deep and sustained cold for 7-10 days with one or two big snowfall events. The first and last few days of the month are more likely to be mild though, so a balance will develop between extremes, the monthly CET of about 3.5 predicted here may not reflect any actual segment of the month. The new moon event around 6-8 may usher in the cold spell, and the northern max full moon events 20-23 Jan may be embedded in the cold spell and bring snow. If not, these would likely be windstorms of a WNW orientation. Unless these strong energy peaks hit a recombining jet, there is probably going to be a major wind event around this time.

February looks like turning much warmer than I expect January to be, or on the other hand, staying very mild if I have that wrong ... so look for a near-record February, possibly as warm as 7.5 C, with some individual days near 18 C also setting daily records. Reason -- any temporary blocking in January will soon reposition to eastern Europe and induce a southerly flow in western Europe. A very early spring for gardeners and other outdoor interests.

Interesting reading - another person believing that January will delvier the coldest shot of the winter and quite a potent one at that. Hope your right in this sense, but hope your wrong about the christmas/new year period and February.

[summer blizzard]

I'll relaese some detailed forecasts when my computer is working again, but here is what some of the data points to off the top of my head...

December - A mixed month, mainly unsettled but with notable cold outbursts between the 8th-14th and 22nd-28th, though a very warm spell likely between the 15th-21st.

Temperature: 5.2C

Rainfall: 75%

January - Another mixed month, though more extreme, there looks to be a very mild/wet spell between the 1st-7th, before a building of the Greenland High, producing a very cold/snowy spell between the 8th-21st, however it looks as though a Euro High may build during the last period of the month.

Temperature: 5.2C

Rainfall: 50%

February - With the La Nina in a weakend state, combined with the easterly QBO and a continuation of the negative AO, i expect quite an anticyclonic month with frequent pressure builds over Scandinavia and the UK, meaning a predominance of easterlies/UK high conditions, though i do expect a warm start to the month.

Temperature: 1.7C

Rainfall: 50%

[Optimus Prime]

SB, do all you're winter month forecasts have to have very cold snowy spells in them? The last time we had something like that was perhaps January 2002 or 1997.

[summer blizzard]

Of course not, snow is to be expected in any winter, though my anologue based forecast last winter called for all three months to be above average, and i stated as such, though i did back my teleconnections forecast in the CET thread.

[saintkiptanui]

The rest of december will be mild, january will be mild, febuary will be mild and march will be mild but in tallinn in febuary it will be snowy and cold, luckily this is where I shall be.

[swfc]

My take on the coming winter is December will be generally mild windy and wet. Jan will start the same but turning colder mid month with the chance of snow before becoming mild.Feb pretty mixed but around average.But March for me will be the coldest month with quite a bit of snow.Just to note i was talking to paul Hudson at a book signing and he hinted that there may be some severe cold post xmas and into Jan.Look to the east were is own words so who knows.Paul Hudson may not be that far out then.

[Timmytour]

This winter will be talked about in similar terms to the winter of 62-63....though it won't be as extreme.

It will be renowned for the energy crisis that develops during it as a result and will be a lesson as to just how unprepared we are to cope with a winter of this type these days...

Edited December 7, 2007 by Timmytour