First 70f/21c of the year?

[Duncan McAlister]

Given that we've been seeing temperatures above 16C in recent days, and with the sun rising fast in the sky day by day I thought it might be an appropriate time for people to give their predictions for the first 70F (21C) of the year in the UK. If you like you can predict location too.

I'll start with March 18th. The Home Counties look a good bet

[Cat 5]

Aye, it looks like a nice summers day out the window up here.

I will predict St Davids day, 1st March Heathrow airport.

[Optimus Prime]

Sometimes in Late March.

Most memorable March heatwave for me was in 2004, quite a blistering feel to the heat towards the end of the month. I believe the highest March temperature on record is about +25.0c sometimes in the 60s.

[Mammatus]

Gravesend - 7th March - 22.1C

[Optimus Prime]

From brit weather years;

"25.0 (1965, on the 29th at Wakefield and Whitby, Yorks; 1968, on the 29th at Thetford and Cromer, and possibly 1929, on the 29th, at Wakefield)"

Despite the 1960s generally having cool Marches some notable temperatures were achieved. The 29th seems to be a popular day for heat.

March 1965;

"March. A month with some very interesting extremes. In contrast to the high maxima at the end of the month, a very low temperature of -21.7C was recorded in the same month at Corwen (Clwyd) on the 3rd, during a cold and snowy beginning to the month. This was the coldest day of the year - and an interestingly late date for this. We had to wait until 2001 for a lower temperature in March. The month began with cold NE winds, with some snow. It cleard on the night of the 2-3rd to give the low minima. There was then a notable blizzard in southern England on the 3-4th. It snowed for almost 24 hours at Heathrow, and there were over 20 cm of level snow on the Hampshire Downs and Salisbury Plain, and 35 cm in central Wales. There was deep snow and traffic disruption in north Wales and on Anglesey. There was even 10 cm on the Hampshire coast, although I don't remember this at all. There were 60 cm drifts in the centre of Birmingham. There was widespread traffic disruption. Then the equal highest maximum for a March day was set on the 29th: 25.0C at Wakefield and Whitby (although this record is more suspect than the 1968 one). At Whitby it was the hottest day of the whole year - this is the earliest date for the hottest day of the year at any location in the country. Wakefield is obviously the place to be in March. There were also some interesting extremes within 24 hours during this "heatwave": in East Anglia there was a range of 28C between frost at daybreak and the afternoon maximum. The possibility of such range in such a short time is one of the things that makes this time of year so interesting. The month had a sunny first half, but it was very dull from the 15th to the 21st, with only 2 hours of sunshine at Bracknell. It cleared on the 27th as pressure built, giving a sunny end to the month, with those very high maxima."

[kold weather]

I think it may be a while before we get a 21C, I'll say 19th April, not as late as some years but not as early as others.

Total guesswork though!

Edited February 11, 2008 by kold weather

[reef]

Earliest date to reach 21C in Hull:

1983: 8th June

1984: 21st April

1985: 26th May

1986: 13th June

1987: 8th May

1988: 19th June

1989: 23rd May

1990: 3rd May

1991: 29th June

1992: 13th May

1993: 17th May

1994: 28th April

1995: 3rd May

1996: 23rd April

1997: 1st May

1998: 9th May

1999: 20th May

2000: 14th May

2001: 26th May

2002: 16th May

2003: 16th April

2004: 25th April

2005: 2nd May

2006: 5th May

2007: 15th April

The latest is 29th June 1991 and the earliest 15th April 2007. Up until 1994 it was usually in May or June, changing to May and April from then onwards. The mean date has moved forward roughly 30 days in that time:

For the UK as a whole it will generally be earlier than here, so Id go for sometime in mid-late April.

[Scorcher]

Interesting to see Wakefield coming up in the records more than once, I really doubt whether this ever was a standard site as you never hear about it now. Looking through temperature records there are numerous stations that have appeared consistently in certain decades. Off the top of my head I can think of Raunds, Northants and Bawtry, South Yorkshire as such places, but you never hear about them anymore.

[Bottesford]

April is my guess. 20+ temps really need less cold nights that we often get in early spring but to get the high temps we need the sunshine thus we need clear skies thus we get cold nights.....

A plume in March would do it but would need an exceptional one to reach 21c.

Personally I can't wait for 21c since >21c (and certainly much higher) has been pretty damn rare since the wonderful summer of 2006!

[Duncan McAlister]

April is my guess. 20+ temps really need less cold nights that we often get in early spring but to get the high temps we need the sunshine thus we need clear skies thus we get cold nights.....

A plume in March would do it but would need an exceptional one to reach 21c.

Personally I can't wait for 21c since >21c (and certainly much higher) has been pretty damn rare since the wonderful summer of 2006!

I agree, after this pathetic winter I'm looking forward to spring weather - daffodils, sunshine, warm temperatures and light winds. Although I can't help feeling a sense of deja vu at this sentence....

[La Bise]

23rd of June, on the first day of sun after 6 weeks of "mild zonality", the forum goes in "pattern change" meltdown, GFS did not see it coming (predicting "mild zonality" for that day) and ECM hinted at it 3 weeks earlier but MetO remained uncommited up until T12 at which point the server crashed for about an hour.

[J07]

London may have hit 16.6C recently but I think 21C is a big one, and most likely won't happen until Mid-April. So I'm betting on April 11th.

I had a look to see what the equivalent date was for New Zealand, but unfortunately somewhere went and spoiled my fun by recording 22.4C on the first day of winter! (June 1st 2007...probably warmer than parts of the UK!). :-/

I remember reading somewhere about the "start of Spring". The person defined it as the first day that got to 16C? I thought that was a poor definition but according to that the UK is in Springtime now

[disco-barry]

Not this week, fact!

[Scorcher]

I'm going to go for the second half of March, maybe March 19th.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'l go with April 13th, not sure where though... suppose London is the most likely!

[Stargazer]

Let's say April 3 at Wisley.

[stewfox]

Let's say April 3 at Wisley.

Yes Wisley could be a good bet

However last yr arrived home to Gatwick Airport and it was +7c in May

Therefore I go for gatwick Airport

16th April wednesday 72.4f ,then a break down with showers for the weekend

first 30c london July 23rd

[Devon-Nelly]

Earliest we've ever done it here, dunno the date but it was early April 2003, the same month we hit 25c which i thought was increadable for April.

My guess will be mid to late March, around the 17th

[sundog]

i dont think this spring will be as warm as some think and i think Britain will have to wait till early may to hit the 70f mark,thus i will go for may 5th.

[ukmoose]

Given today's (record breaking?) warmth in Wales and Yorkshire, I wouldn't bet against this figure being reached somewhere in the UK in the next two weeks. That's before the end of Feb. Has that happened before I wonder? Mr Data?

Moose

[chionomaniac]

Given today's (record breaking?) warmth in Wales and Yorkshire, I wouldn't bet against this figure being reached somewhere in the UK in the next two weeks. That's before the end of Feb. Has that happened before I wonder? Mr Data?

Moose

Yes what is the first day ever in the year that 21ºc has been reached in the UK?

c

Edited February 12, 2008 by chionomaniac

[reef]

Yes what is the first day ever in the year that 21ºc has been reached in the UK?

c

The earliest date to surpass 70F (21.2C) was 9th March 1948 in London. Colwyn Bay just missed out in 1929 with 21.1C (69.98F) on the 8th March.

http://www.torro.org.uk/TORRO/britwxextrem...ghtempsyear.php

Edited February 12, 2008 by reef

[ukmoose]

The earliest date to surpass 70F (21.2C) was 9th March 1948 in London. Colwyn Bay just missed out in 1929 with 21.1C (69.98F) on the 8th March.

http://www.torro.org.uk/TORRO/britwxextrem...ghtempsyear.php

Thank you for that, Reef, that's interesting.

I wonder how long it will be before that record falls by moving to February - or even (dare I mention it) January?

Moose

[03jtrickey]

March 23rd at Staverton Private

[Snowly does it]

May 5th Heathrow Airport.