Atlantic Invest Thread 2008

[tinybill]

We now have invest 91L, just to the northeast of Hispaniola. The system actually contains the remnants of former TS Josephine, though am I correct in saying it won't be renamed Josephine if it re-develops? Anyway, convection has been slowly increasing all day but it is currently disorganised. NHC say there is potential for slow development on the general westward heading. Looks Caribbean bound this one so if it develops this isn't good news at all.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

looking at that it look like it got to kept an eye on at the moment

[Cookie]

things appear to have quitend down for the moment.

are we out the peak season yet?

[*Stormforce~beka*]

I would imagine we can't be far off. I think September is the most active month I read somewhere. And the end of season is the 31st November I think.

[Somerset Squall]

things appear to have quitend down for the moment.

are we out the peak season yet?

September is the most active as Beka rightly says, in another couple weeks the activity slowly begins to ease, that's not to say it's over yet though!

[tinybill]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

could this get to be a hurrican????

[Katherine]

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW

PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS

OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC

WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...

AND ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE...THEY ARE

EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT

TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Roger J Smith]

I have the feeling this will develop quickly into a hurricane in about 36 hours, threatening Jamaica and Cuba again. If you get a chance to look at the visible image soon, notice the almost perfect circle near the islands. If a circulation develops around this we will see rapid development.

From research I am speculating that three or four new tropical storms will come into existence in the next two weeks, so this quiet spell will soon be over.

[londonsnow]

i think we may have a potential hurricane kyle on our hands.

[Katherine]

i think we may have a potential hurricane kyle on our hands.

Can you explain your reasoning please? I am not doubting your opinion, I would like to be educated a bit more on the evidence that supports your feeling and the climatic conditions in that area you're using to form that opinion.....

[londonsnow]

sure. better organisation and favourable conditions for further development. but, of course hurricane forecasting isnt easy even for the professionals so i may be wrong.

[Iceberg]

I think people above are talking about 93L.

It's currently OK, but is still short of TD status let alone Hurricane.

GFDL,HWRF and Ships all take it to Hurricane but only once it's past the Caribbean Islands. CAT 2 is probably realistic. However that's along way off yet and although Shear is set to weaken 93L does not have good organisation.

Once into open water a general northwards track seems possible with a strong ridge then pushing it towards the west coast.

Well worth keeping an eye on but we are probably 24/48 hrs away from any real development. It's probably worth having a look on visual at around 3pm today to see if a rotating LLCC is evident.

[Somerset Squall]

Showing real signs of organisation now, with some rotation too. Impressive, widespread convection has also developed with 93L and NHC have upgraded it's chances of development to high for the next 48hrs, noting it could form into a tropical depression as early as tonight. Recon are investigating the system later today.

[Somerset Squall]

Latest from NHC:

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA

ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER

ORGANIZED TODAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR

FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO

INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON BOTH ITS

STRUCTURE AND STRENGTH. A WIND GUST IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WAS

REPORTED AT ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EARLIER TODAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO...THE

VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY.

INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR PRODUCTS FROM THEIR

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS

SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY...WHICH

COULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS AND WATCHES.

TD11 on it's way??

[tinybill]

Latest from NHC:

TD11 on it's way??

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

could it be the next named storm!!!!

[Iceberg]

Invest 93L is finally starting to get it's act together Dvorak numbers have gone upto T2 and outflow is starting to increase.

The centre is currently just south of DR, but IMO still isn't closed.

[Somerset Squall]

93L remains disorganised but development is possible once it moves away from Hispaniola.

Of more immediate interest if 94L, which has rapidly become more organised off the east coast. A subtropical or tropical storm may be forming and judging on the look of it there may be an upgrade tonight.

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1000 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED

ABOUT 250 MILES...400 KM...SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA

IS ACQUIRING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS SYSTEM COULD

BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS

IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY

WINDS OF UP TO 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF

THE CENTER. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING

STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP

CURRENTS TO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE

OF DAYS. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND WARNINGS. AN AIR

FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE

SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[Iceberg]

Indeed 93L was looking very poor earlier today.

94L is currently sub tropical with a Dvorak of ST2.5. Very good rotation (which is should have at that latitude ! ). But I am not yet convinced of it.

93L is look better IMO, now that the convection has died down a clear rotation centre and low level LLCC is evident to the north of DR, particularly more recently. However there is very little convection around the centre at the moment.

By tomorrow morning this could remain in a similar state or the convection could have really picked up 50/50 maybe.

[Iceberg]

93L is looking much better today now, with convection flaring up around the Centre, there is still Shear to the west of the system, but this doesn't look like it will stop further slow intensification, particularly as it's due to reduce.

Recon is currently on it's way to the system, so NHC must think there is at least a reasonable chance of this being classified a TD in the very near future.

[liquidjp]

Are the systems just coming off the coast of africa likely to be worth noting or is it too early to tell, the SST around there seems warm enough for development.

[Iceberg]

They certainly stand a chance IMO and are worth keeping an eye on as they move westwards.

93L Recon have found pressure down to 1001mb as well as winds from the N,S,E and West, which means that at least an upper closed centre has formed. Dropsonde indicates that the lower centre is marginal for being closed..

Outflow and convection are still improving.

Personally I think this will make TD 11 today. maybe at 4.00pm

[Iceberg]

114030 2212N 06827W 6957 03157 9997 +125 +073 319016 018 027 000 00

114100 2214N 06827W 6956 03157 9997 +126 +072 311011 014 025 001 00

Pressure down to 999mb and dropsonde as reported surface westerly winds. I think this will have to be updated now.

The big question is as TD11 or TS Kyle.

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 94L almost looks like a hurricane . However, convection is lacking near the centre and the strongest winds are still well removed from the centre. 94L is drifting slowly westwards and may still become subtropical over the next couple days. As it stands, 94L is still looking extratropical. As for the eye like feature, I think it's false.

[Somerset Squall]

We currently have invest 95L to the west of the Azores Islands. This non-tropical low has started to aquire tropical characteristics with convection increasing near the centre. Low chance of development in the next 24hrs but NHC say it could become a subtropical or tropical cyclone as it drifts west-southwestwards into warmer waters.

Satellite image of the Atlantic showing Kyle rapidly become extratropical and this low to the east slowly becoming better organised.

[Somerset Squall]

Latest from NHC on 95L:

THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED OVER

THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF

THE WESTERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF

ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY ACQUIRING TROPICAL

CHARACTERISTICS AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR

TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY

WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

Medium risk now of development in the next 24-48hrs.

[mettalfabrik]

Yep GFS has this coming our way by next weekend,on todays runs