Atlantic Invest Thread 2008

[Iceberg]

A quick update this has been raised to 30Kt by ships and given a Dvorak of 2.0. Making it one step away from a Tropical storm let alone a Tropical Depression.

I have to admit the new NHC's directors theory of only calling a storm once you have recon evdience of a closed centre makes the TD classification quite rare. !

Not that this is a TD or TS yet.

[Iceberg]

The recon for today.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. CARIBBEAN SUSPECT AREA

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70

A. 25/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST

C. 25/1430Z

D. 15.5N 70.0W

E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2200Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO ? TEAL 71

A. 26/0600Z

B. AFXXX 0207A CYCLONE

C. 26/0300Z

D. 16.5N 72.0W

E. 26/0500Z TO 26/1200Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Recon begins at 3.30 BST, interesting that for today they are calling it an invest and for tomorrow a cyclone. Must mean a good change of being updated later today, a good chance of being Gustav as well.

[Iceberg]

Dvorak has gone upto 2.5 or 35Kt so if a circulation is found it will be gustav.

Tightening and strengthening is very evident.

[Iceberg]

94L has now been named TD 7.

[Iceberg]

A quite old place this. We now have 95L making it's presence felt with a very good looking cyclone, low shear, nice outflow etc.

1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL

CYCLONE MAY BE FORMING ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE

NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES

WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

Looks like advisory's will start today and with both GDFL and HWRF making this another major hurricane it will certainly be busy. It looks like it will drift NW stall at the high pressure ridge which pushes Gustav northwards then hit the west coast eventually.

Edited August 28, 2008 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

95L has been upgrade to T2.0 or TS strength.

[Iceberg]

95L is now TD 8 so have created a new topic, forecasted to be a hurricane as well so should be good to watch.

[Somerset Squall]

96L has formed in the BOC. Look at the explosive convection!! However, there are no signs of a circulation as yet and development heavily depends on the invest staying away from land.

[tinybill]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml...?large#contents

looking at that their a beast soon leaving africa

[Somerset Squall]

Seems to be some rotation now with 96L in the Bay of Campeche, the only thing that will stop this is land. Touch and go whether it will make the hop to TD status but it appears to be getting better organised.

[Cookie]

one after the other at the moment fascinating

[Somerset Squall]

96L is no more as it has moved inland.

We now have invest 97L however, just off the coast of Africa, near the Cape Verde Islands. Convection has been persisting over a consolidating low level centre and there is some weak formative banding. I reckon we will have TD9 very soon.

[tinybill]

96L is no more as it has moved inland.

We now have invest 97L however, just off the coast of Africa, near the Cape Verde Islands. Convection has been persisting over a consolidating low level center and there is some weak formative banding. I reckon we will have TD9 very soon.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

its looks like another hurricane since yesterday its gone red

[Iceberg]

Still alot of track difference with 97L, it is starting to get it's act together now though and is travelling very fast, Dvorak has been upped to 1.5, 2.0 being a TS.

HWRF takes this fishing in the Atlantic.

GFDL and ECM both take it down into the Caribbean, with ECM taking Yet another hit into the South States as a Major Hurricane. GFDL takes it Hurricane as well.

[Iceberg]

97L has just been upgrade to TD 8 at 30Kt so I've created a new topic.

[kold weather]

99L also now present Iceberg, deep convection with this wave, clear mid level circulation and that could drive down to the surface pretty quickly, I wouldn't be at all surprised if 99L was a TD within the next 12-24hrs as well as it may well be a threat to the Cape Verde Islands.

This rally is peak season, the ACE is about to utterly sky rocket!

[Somerset Squall]

TD10 imminant!!

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A

COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...HAS

BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER

TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15

TO 20 MPH.

[Katherine]

Not tonight, Josephine......

[James M]

Blimey they're queing up!

[Mondy]

90L also up now

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2...p&TYPE=ssmi

[Iceberg]

To help give a recap I've put the various cyclones etc on the one diagram.

99L is likely to be TD10 and Josephine

[Iceberg]

99L has become TD10 so I've started a new topic.

[Jack Wales]

Look at this live loop, you can clearly see Ike, TD10 and the queue of tropical waves coming off africa, could be an interesting month!

[Mondy]

Huge wave coming off Africa. :o

[Somerset Squall]

We now have invest 91L, just to the northeast of Hispaniola. The system actually contains the remnants of former TS Josephine, though am I correct in saying it won't be renamed Josephine if it re-develops? Anyway, convection has been slowly increasing all day but it is currently disorganised. NHC say there is potential for slow development on the general westward heading. Looks Caribbean bound this one so if it develops this isn't good news at all.

Edited September 11, 2008 by Somerset Squall