Atlantic Invest Thread 2008

[Somerset Squall]

A closed circulation has been found and invest 92L has been upgraded to TS Fay! Banding features are still good and convection still covers the centre. Land interaction may hinder further development in the short term it seems.

Edited August 15, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Iceberg]

Indeed and about time too.!

I've just a thread this has been named as TS Fay with advisory's out in the next 30 mins.

[Iceberg]

93L is doing a bit better this morning. Conditions arn't massively favourable but I can see some development here if the system is lucky.

[sundog]

Im heading off to the Dominican Republic on the 25th of August for 2 weeks,just wondering is it true that the Dominican Republic is rarely directly hit by hurricanes? Im getting married out there,the last thing i want on my wedding day is to be in the middle of a bloody hurricane

[Mondy]

94L

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 600 MILES

WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS

SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES

WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH

Edited August 18, 2008 by Delta X-Ray

[Somerset Squall]

Looks like some decent rotation there already, waters are warm enough for development but 94L has to avoid the dry air in the region to become a tropical cyclone.

[Mondy]

It won't be a tropical cyclone if it's forming off Cape Verde ;-)

[Roger J Smith]

North Atlantic hurricanes are one form of tropical cyclones, I'm sure DXR knew that but just in case somebody looking in did not, they get different names in different oceans, typhoons in the western Pacific, hurricanes in the North Atlantic, South Pacific and east Pacific, and tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean. I guess if they start showing up in the South Atlantic more than once, they will be hurricanes there as well.

Hey, for the Dominican Republic, it is not the most frequently hit island but you are going at the height of the season and you should expect at least a brush-past once in two weeks at this time of year, if not a more direct hit. Seems that in many cases storms that hit there are tropical storms rather than hurricanes, and get stronger later if they survive. It is pretty rare for a big hurricane to hit the Dominican, I can't recall offhand when the last one was, but probably on the order of once every 15 or 20 years. Same for PR, there are more hurricanes hitting Cuba or the Windward Islands than Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, but you can't rule it out either.

[Iceberg]

There is nodoubting the circulation mid and low on 94L, looking at visual it's striking.

Ships, GFDL make this a hurricane pretty quickly path is westwards.

[Somerset Squall]

North Atlantic hurricanes are one form of tropical cyclones, I'm sure DXR knew that but just in case somebody looking in did not, they get different names in different oceans, typhoons in the western Pacific, hurricanes in the North Atlantic, South Pacific and east Pacific, and tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean. I guess if they start showing up in the South Atlantic more than once, they will be hurricanes there as well.

Thanks for that clarification Roger, I said tropical cyclone because it could form into a tropical depression/storm or hurricane. Tropical cyclones are the techinal term for Hurricanes, Typhoons and Cyclones DXR (Although they aren't hurricanes in the South Pacific Roger, they are called Tropical Cyclones here as well as the Indian Ocean).

[Jack Wales]

Im heading off to the Dominican Republic on the 25th of August for 2 weeks,just wondering is it true that the Dominican Republic is rarely directly hit by hurricanes? Im getting married out there,the last thing i want on my wedding day is to be in the middle of a bloody hurricane

I suppose it depends on how you define 'rarely'! I don't want to alarm you but the Domincan Republic has been hit by numerous hurricanes so it is wrong to say it is 'rarely hit'. For example, TS Fay rashed through there a couple of days ago.

Although you are visiting during the peak of the hurricane season the odds are still very much against you being caught up in one but if I were you I'd keep an eye on 94L to be on the safe side! Conditions seem ideal for development but the path cannot be accuraltey plotted that far ahead.

[Iceberg]

94L is looking good this morning, although conditions are not due to be too favourable.

Also on the same floater ! we have 9EL which is it's close bedfellow.um.....

We could get some decent actions here.

[sundog]

Thank you Roger and Jack Wales for the replies. I will be keeping a close eye on things before i go and when im over there as im sure they will have some sort of internet cafe in the complex im staying in. One thing i do know is it certainly wont be clear blue skies all the time for the two weeks im over there,there will be at the very least im sure heavy thundery downpours there from time to time,and the possibly a tropical storm thrown in too. But that is something that i accept given the time of yr that im going.

Edited August 19, 2008 by sundog

[Iceberg]

94L is still heavily sheared but managed to hang on through yesterday. It's getting back into a reasonable shape given the environment and is still very much something to watch, particularly as the models prog her to continue towards the Windies.

[Iceberg]

94L is still going.

There are also a couple of other areas to watch out in the Atlantic.

[Mondy]

95L now up

[kold weather]

95L is pretty far north and undergoing pretty drastic flare ups and flare downs. Sea surface temps arent amazing where its at now however and will increase as it gets further west. Its also got a pretty decent mid level circulation. Don't think this will do anything soon but its got a shot down the road.

As for 94L, its a very broad disorganised region with several convective bursts, some related to the ITCZ below 10N. There are two regions that show some cyclonic turning at the mid levels, the first being around 14N, 56W, which has been firing up convection today but is taking on a linear look suggesting an elongated mid circulation, the other developed this morning with the large burst of convection around 11N, 53W. Right now I don't think development is likely in the next 24hrs unless recon finds something in the next 12-24hrs but given its heading intothe Caribbean there is a good chance that something will develop from this, chances look good by 65W for development but on which circulation is a little tricky to know at the moment, I won't want to make a call on that just yet.

[Iceberg]

Just giving a quick update on 94L.

The path is atypical hurricane. GFDL has shown an interest in this today, But it's still a little early to have any faith yet.

But the possibility is there.

[kold weather]

Also whilst I don't want to worry you sundog models do have 94L developing and crossing DR as well sometime early next week, though these models may be too far east its tough to say...

My advice is keep a very close eye on this thread and if something does form just to keep an eye on it, you should still be able tto stay there unless it really bombs out however could be an issue who knows?

[Iceberg]

um...

Most of the paths take 94L toward Jamica DR etc, Deep into the Caribbean on this course ships and GFDL quickly make it a hurricane (3 days).

HWRF and ECM take a more northerly track into a less favourable environment and out into the Atlantic and Bahamas this allows for strengthening but only after 5 or 6 days.

All the above tell us though is that there is potential for this IF it can develop over the next 48 hrs.

It's currently in a high heat content, low shear environment and I fancy that by the end of today it might look quite good.

Post blackout sat pics indicate convection starting in the centre of a good rotation. (we will have to wait a few hours to see how good that rotation is and preferably for some good visual loops.)

If 94L can establish and impress over today we might be in a very good position for another storm to really follow. An outside chance of being a TD this weekend as well.

[Iceberg]

94L is currently at 1.5 Dvorak which is just below TD. It currently looks quite good. Recon isn't due to look at it until tomorrow evening at the earliest.

95L look half decent as well, nowhere near 94L in potential but a nice little feature.

[Iceberg]

Still 1.5Dvorak, Precip and convection has been pretty intense and widespread but hasn't really got organised yet.

There has been no real evidence of outflow and although the circualtion at high level was noticable early under the mass of convection there is no evidence that this has been engaged.

Saying the above it's impossible to really fathom what is happening under the current mass other than alot of energy is evident. !

[sundog]

Also whilst I don't want to worry you sundog models do have 94L developing and crossing DR as well sometime early next week, though these models may be too far east its tough to say...

My advice is keep a very close eye on this thread and if something does form just to keep an eye on it, you should still be able tto stay there unless it really bombs out however could be an issue who knows?

Yes i will be keeping an eye on things and on 94L. If it does cross DR hopefully it wont be too bad. I hope the flight over will be smooth as im a nervous flyer at the best of times and if the flight is near any storms out there in the Atlantic im sure there would be quite alot of turbulance.

[Iceberg]

94L is better organised today, with some outflow and limited (very limited) banding.

There is also some rotation on view. I am not sure whether the recon flight later today is going ahead or not. I believe it's still on.?

Anyway a very busy time for invests in the next few days with 95L, Invest ? (probably to be 96L) and 97L soon to leave Africa (many models very quickly take this upto TS strength but a very likely fish.

[Iceberg]

Recon was cancelled for yesterday, but looks likely to go ahead today given what they are starting to notice.

A graph from the bouy shows pressure falling very quickly down to 1007 so far and winds increasing.

On Satelite its looking better with scruffy evidence of inflow, outflow and banding and rotation enough to suggest it has got tropical drepression charecteristics.

Models are not keen on it(today) but the path will provide plenty of time for intensification and conditions seem good

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA

BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES. THE ASSOCIATED

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED...AND REPORTS

FROM A NOAA BUOY INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE BECOMING

BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR

DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION

LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR

FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO

INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TODAY...