Atlantic Invest Thread 2008

[Cookie]

is that it for big big Atlantic hurricanes? will get a cat 5 this year

[Somerset Squall]

is that it for big big Atlantic hurricanes? will get a cat 5 this year

I'm going to stick my neck out and say we won't. Now watch the egg slap me in the face!

There's still time for biggies. Although activity starts to slowly decline from this point forward, October can still produce some big hurricanes, Wilma being a perfect example.

[weather2]

is that it for big big Atlantic hurricanes? will get a cat 5 this year

I read somewhere another 2 hurricanes expected (one major) for this month.

[Cookie]

can you provide information?

[weather2]

can you provide information?

Klotzbach and William Gray..........if you type those in you should find something about it

[Cookie]

we have invest 96l near Mexico

[Somerset Squall]

we have invest 96l near Mexico

Indeed. If it was over water then I would suspect it would've developed quite quickly. Convection has increased dramatically with the system today but it is now moving inland through Belize. Land interaction makes development of this invest unlikely, at least until it manages to find water again- if it does.

[Somerset Squall]

Well, 96L as we all know did find water and developed into Marco. Now, we have invest 97L at the other end of the Atlantic, midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Development is not common here in mid October but convection has becoming increasingly well organised over the past 24 hours and NHC have stated that 97L has a medium risk of development over the next day or so.

[Somerset Squall]

97L is looking very well organised at the moment and may well become a tropical depression tomorrow. However, the long term outlook is bleak as the system is forecast to move northwards into a highly sheared environment.

We also have invest 98L south of Puerto Rico. This system is slowly organising, and will be moving into the warmest waters of the basin (southern Caribbean) so further development is possible. 98L is less organised than 97L but longer term, prospects look better.

[Somerset Squall]

Latest from NHC:

97L:

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE

LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES WELL-ORGANIZED. ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD BE INITIATED ANY TIME ALTHOUGH

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER

OPEN WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

98L:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO

RICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE

NOW MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION

COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND IF NECESSARY...A

RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS TO

PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Cookie]

thanks mate, looks like we may get some activity

taken from here http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...at.html#a_topad

[Jack Wales]

As I see it 97L is already a TD possibly a TS with strong convection/circulation, low shear and banding...

However with shear affecting its path to the north or north-west unless the system follows a westward course it could be another Josephine.

As for 98L, I agree with SS in that it has a bit of work to do yet, but with warm SST's and low shear forecast in the medium term prospects for significant strengthening are better than 97L.

[Katherine]

Busy times are here again!

[Somerset Squall]

As well as Nana and TD15, we also have invest 99L to the east of Nicaragua. This invest is spinning up very nicely and may well become a tropical depression tomorrow in warm waters and low shear. The system is expected to push northwards whilst developing. If it jogs west at all though, land interaction will hinder development. This is a very active period for October! This satellite image shows the formative banding well.

[Somerset Squall]

Nana's dissipating, TD15 is strengthening and now invest 99L is looking even more impressive, with persistant, deep convection over the centre and some good banding. NHC now give this system a high chance of development in the next 24hrs.

Believe it or not, there ia now a fourth system, invest 90L. A small but persistant area of convection covers a small LLC. However, development is unlikely due to it's proximity with TD Nana; Nana is likely to absorb invest 90L. NHC also seem surprised at this sudden surge of activity, by refering to 90L as "yet another area of low pressure".

Edited October 13, 2008 by Somerset Squall

[Katherine]

The blob near Nicaragua has now been red-alerted by the NHC.....

[Iceberg]

Well it's been a very quite few weeks, we currently have 92L which although isn't given much prospect by the models, looks half decent IMO. Good circulation etc. I am not saying it will amount to much but there is a slight chance with this one.

Forgot to add 92L is mid atlantic at present probably heading due west.

[Somerset Squall]

Well it's been a very quite few weeks, we currently have 92L which although isn't given much prospect by the models, looks half decent IMO. Good circulation etc. I am not saying it will amount to much but there is a slight chance with this one.

Forgot to add 92L is mid atlantic at present probably heading due west.

Indeed, NHC is giving this one a low chance at the moment but this could change. Interesting to note it may well head into warmer waters over the next couple days which may allow development if shear remains low, however, it's forecast to increase in a day or so.

[Cookie]

we have invest 93

[Somerset Squall]

we have invest 93

Yes, this looks a little more interesting today, and the disturbance appears now to be slowly organising. Conditions are favourable for further development as shear is set to remain low and sea temps in the region are still around 29C. 93L is in the hottest waters of the Atlantic so if development is going to occur it's most likely here.

[Somerset Squall]

93L is looking very well organised, recon are investigating the system to see if a tropical depression is forming. We should hear back in a few hours.

[londonsnow]

well it looks like potential for a td is now high

[Jack Wales]

Yes, 93L has developed substantially over the last few hours. There is convection bursting all around the centre, the perviously open quadrant on the eastern flank has closed up nicely. With the good banding forming, I would not be surprised to see 93L go straight in as a Tropical Storm...

[londonsnow]

well we have td 17, and there is talk of a late season hurricane from the noaa

[Somerset Squall]

We have a late season invest, 97L, in the mid-north Atlantic. Convective organisation has rapidly improved today, and the LLC is well defined. There is a chance this one could become a subtropical storm before interacting with a trough and moving over even colder waters. Waters are too cool for a purely tropical storm to occur this far north at this time of the year.

The image a couple posts above shows 97L's organisation well.