Little Ice Age coming?

[geri2k]

Apologies if this is on here somewhere else.

Geri

Quote

"Mexican scientist warns Earth will enter

'Little Ice Age' for up to 80 Years

______________________________



16 Aug 08 - An expert from the National Autonomous University of Mexico predicted that in about ten years the Earth will enter a "little ice age" which will last from 60 to 80 years due to decrease in solar activity.

Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics of the UNAM, who that teaches at the Centre for Applied Sciences and Technological Development, described as erroneous predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the so-called global warming.

The models and forecasts of the IPCC "is incorrect because only are based on mathematical models and presented results at scenarios that do not include, for example, solar activity," said Velasco Herrera, who also specializes in image processing and signs and prevention of natural disasters. The phenomenon of climate change, he added, should include other kinds of factors, both internal, such as volcanoes and human activity, and external, such as solar activity.

"In this century glaciers are growing", as seen in the Andes, Perito Moreno, Logan, the highest mountain in Canada, and with Franz-Josef Glacier, New Zealand, said Velasco Herrera.

At present, the world is going through a transition phase where solar activity diminishes considerably, "so that in two years or so, there will be a small ice age that lasts from 60 to 80 years." "

Unquote

Taken from website http://www.iceagenow.com/

[kippure]

Besides all the media hype of global warming, i,d like to know one simple question based on facts not hear say. Are we cooling or warming up. Ie Over the past 10 years, what has been the average global tempeture for each year?

[Kiwi]

Besides all the media hype of global warming, i,d like to know one simple question based on facts not hear say. Are we cooling or warming up. Ie Over the past 10 years, what has been the average global tempeture for each year?

From what I've read, from a wide variety of sources, global temperatures have not increased since 1998.

-- There has actually been a v small, though insignificant, decrease.

[MAF]

and the debate goes on

i have, for many years, asked the question here in NW as to whether we are in a cycle of "warmer" weather or if this trend is an upward one. but as the debate goes on and on i am not sure anyone knows the true answer. still, the prediction of a mini ice-age is somewhat encouraging, if only on the basis that there is at least one school of thought out there that is not going for global warming.

[jethro]

According to this bloke, it's not a mini ice age we should be worried about but a full blown one. No idea who he is or how credible.

http://westinstenv.org/wp-content/ANURGENT...OMINGICEAGE.pdf

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

According to this bloke, it's not a mini ice age we should be worried about but a full blown one. No idea who he is or how credible.

http://westinstenv.org/wp-content/ANURGENT...OMINGICEAGE.pdf

His understanding and use of Milankovitch is very very good. This as many know is a major concern of mine, particularly look at the maximun ice melt in the arctic, look at the rebound winter last year [lets see what happens this year]as Roger suggested would be the case, the big player of mine is look at the solar sunspots..it has crashed through the floor no way in hell is 24 going to be active like the warmist say, perturbation cycle, -ve PDO, 0.7c drop in global temps. i know some say 10 years isn't enough fine but 2-3 years when talking of this it was only 7-8 years of no warming and we ARE heading down now 'currently'.

Great find jethro

BFTP

[Greyowl]

I thought the scientific data said we are still coming out of the last ice age!!. Some positive thinking about climate apart from a warming trend is interesting.

[jethro]

His understanding and use of Milankovitch is very very good. This as many know is a major concern of mine, particularly look at the maximun ice melt in the arctic, look at the rebound winter last year [lets see what happens this year]as Roger suggested would be the case, the big player of mine is look at the solar sunspots..it has crashed through the floor no way in hell is 24 going to be active like the warmist say, perturbation cycle, -ve PDO, 0.7c drop in global temps. i know some say 10 years isn't enough fine but 2-3 years when talking of this it was only 7-8 years of no warming and we ARE heading down now 'currently'.

Great find jethro

BFTP

Your understanding of Milankovitch cycles is far, far greater than mine; if you say it's good, I'm happy to accept that. I do think many in this country (and I'm including myself in this) are not too aware of just how snowy last winter was in the NH, we missed out but most didn't, Roger was absolutely correct in his rebound ideas. Seems another cycle 23 spot has appeared, this sets 24 back again, like you I cannot see where the immense activity ahead, forecast by some, is going to come from. Interesting times ahead eh.

Edited August 22, 2008 by jethro

[Essan]

We're pretty sure there will be another ice age. But whether it starts today or in 5,000 years times doesn't make a lot of difference.

It takes thousands of years for the Baffin and Labrador ice caps to develop to the stage whereby they form a full ice sheet and start dictating N Hemisphere climate, instigate feedbacks, and push the whole hemisphere into a glacial (the S Hemisphere is obviously in an ice age all the time).

Of course little ice ages happen all the time, but it's likely an that any that occur in the immediate future due to reduced solar activity will be fairly minor affairs due to being tempered by various aspects of anthropogenic warming.

Edited August 22, 2008 by Essan

[Kiwi]

The cooling since 2000 correlates with sunspot activity.

The number of sunspots has been declining since about 2002. Solar Cycle 23 ended in 2002, and Solar Cycle 24 which started in January hasn't really managed to get itself going.

The medieval mini ice age, was correlated with a period of little or no sunspot activity called the Maunder Minimum. So, on this basis should I be dusting off my sledge for this winter??

[VillagePlank]

Another one, here, to add to the debate.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Whilst undoubtedly an interesting topic, and worthy of discussion and conjecture, I'm afraid that that is all this type of thread can remain, discussion and conjecture. Even if we are cooling, I don't think anyone can argue that the starting point for this cooling is anything other than (in many parts of the world record-breakingly) warm. So, if this is happening, then it might be our children in their dotage, or more likely their children, who will be able to judge whether we have or have not entered either a mini-ice age or a proper one. I would imagine that the medieval 'mini-ice age' didn't really become noticeable from previous weather patterns for at least 100 years, so any talk from any of us about 'looking forward to seeing if this comes to pass' is frankly futile.

Watching seasonal weather patterns is something we can actually measure and draw conclusions from. Discussions on global climate trends are, I'm afraid, going to only ever be that for us - interesting but completely unprovable conjecture.

[Essan]

As far as I'm concerned, the measure is the Baffin Island ice caps. And no sign of them growing as yet, what with the regions experiencing exceptionally high temps this summer.

And, of course, it's cold summers that are need for an ice cap to grow.

No new ice caps: no new ice age (little or otherwise)

[JRMcLeod]

Well all i have to say to this topic is that if we are about to go through a mini ice age, i sure hope aberdeenshire stays warm because i sure wont manage to afford the gas prices by the time that comes along!!!

[VillagePlank]

Watching seasonal weather patterns is something we can actually measure and draw conclusions from. Discussions on global climate trends are, I'm afraid, going to only ever be that for us - interesting but completely unprovable conjecture.

Not sure I agree with that. What conclusions can you, without conjecture, draw on this basis? Indeed on the basis of 'seasonal weather' pattern what can you show that isn't 'unprovable conjecture'?

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Not sure I agree with that. What conclusions can you, without conjecture, draw on this basis? Indeed on the basis of 'seasonal weather' pattern what can you show that isn't 'unprovable conjecture'?

Sorry VP, the point I was trying to make was that with short term forecasting you can view models, make predictions, even argue over those predictions, but the timescales are such that the reality plays out and the resolution to the arguments is reached e.g. the long threads on here last autumn about what sort of winter we might get, which of course we now know incontrovertibly.

But a discussion about whether or not we are entering a mini ice-age is not something we will ever find out the definitive answer to, or who was right in their predictions and who was wrong, (unless there is an after-life and it allows us to watch of course !).

In many ways you could describe many of the discussions we have on here as almost philosophical in nature, i.e. essentially unprovable, but fun to debate over nonetheless.

[VillagePlank]

But a discussion about whether or not we are entering a mini ice-age is not something we will ever find out the definitive answer to, or who was right in their predictions and who was wrong, (unless there is an after-life and it allows us to watch of course !).

Indeed. As we will find out in 50 years the truth or otherwise of the CO2 AGW conjecture!

TBF, that's not exactly the way I read your original post. Apologies!

[Godot]

Another one, here, to add to the debate.

From what I read it says that this is the coolest year since 2000, but the 10th warmest since 1850.

[The PIT]

We'll just have to keep watching the sun if it keeps being quiet then we need to get our butts in gear fairly rapidly.

[HighPressure]

To my mind its all about perception of time, because us humans individually live for what is just a blink of an eyelid in global terms we tend to try and read patterns into similar if not smaller time scales and that just does not work. We are headed for an ice age and will probably have several little ice ages on route, we exist merely in a warm period between the predominant ice age conditions. For me AGW = increased cooling, just how warm it will get before it cools and how rapid that cooling is a matter for minds greater than mine. The mechanics of the earth say increased warmth at the poles reduces sea ice and therefore temp gradients which in turn reduce ocean current rates. I can see no scientific way that this cycle can be broken, but do concede it can be sped up, simply the quicker you bring something to boiling point the faster you reach the cooling phase.

[Mondy]

We'll just have to keep watching the sun if it keeps being quiet then we need to get our butts in gear fairly rapidly.

Although the Sun is quiet and SC24 doesn't look like kicking in any time soon, this is not new.

[Roger J Smith]

What's all this ???

Oi vei, just when we had all sold our gas guzzlers and SUVs, now Al Gore will be making an impassioned plea to "save the earth from the impending ice age" by belting out as much greenhouse gas as possible.

Just a few comments here, first, the impeding ice age theory is a different interpretation from what I would call standard Milankovitch which had placed the next glacial period five to ten thousand years from now, and not the strongest one compared to geologically recent events either.

The Baffin - Ungava ice cap can accumulate very rapidly according to geological evidence, possibly reaching critical coverage within a century of onset, so there is some evidence for rapid onset.

I am currently unwilling to abandon any percentage contribution from greenhouse gas to overall temperature change, therefore there is a built-in brake on sudden onset (and my opinion is probably conservative still, although cracks of doubt must be appearing in the all-greenhouse camp).

Solar variation too early to call, plausible but no cause and effect theory can really handle solar variability prediction, periods between quiet intervals vary from 80 to 200 years and intensity of quiet intervals varies from regular moderate peaks (as a high end) to total absence of activity (Maunder). Also climate correlations for all but strongest quiet periods remains elusive to demonstrate.

Volcanic major event overdue, another wild card in the deck favouring cold.

Lunar research of GWO indicates variations up and down around 20th century mean out to about 2080 and then colder spell, similar to my research profiles for longer-period variables.

Winter of 2007-08 only exceptional in three areas, central Asia, China, Quebec-New Brunswick. In Great Lakes and northeast U.S., hardly worse than average 19th century winter. Earth a lot closer to ice age conditions in 1816 or even 1885 than anything we have seen recently, and these supposedly not as advanced as 1684-1709 period.

Arctic ice melt may not have reached anything like its eventual minimum, just because 2008 is lagging behind 2007 is no sure sign, and this lag is most pronounced in Canadian sector.

Another wild card, North Magnetic Pole heading for positions not theorized for past three thousand years, weakening, overall effects on climate debatable but largely unknown.

In other words, it is what it is. Best guess, things won't change drastically in either direction. Hard to get a research grant (or a newspaper interview) to say that.

Cold UK winter long overdue, appearance will not prove much (as per 1740).

[The PIT]

Although the Sun is quiet and SC24 doesn't look like kicking in any time soon, this is not new.

Yup there has been longer periods of inactivity between cycles but if we move beyond these then what???? What you can say this is interesting.

[Mondy]

Do any of these graphs correspond with historical data/fact? I dunno, just wondering..

http://sidc.oma.be/sunspot-index-graphics/sidc_graphics.php

Edit, going by the "butterfly diagram" it's fair to say Solar Cycle 24 could be a year or two away yet.

Edited August 23, 2008 by Delta X-Ray

[jethro]

Here's a round up of many of the predictions for cooling/little ice age together with lots of links to the original reports/papers; seems to me there's more than just the odd one or two saying we're going to cool.

http://www.rightsidenews.com/200808211778/...al-cooling.html