Carinthians Latest Arctic Ice Reports

[Mr Maunder]

Overall I'm quite happy with how the ice has reformed this year.

In particular, however, I am very interested to see how much ice is going to form this year in the Kara and Barents seas.

Things are, to my mind currently looking quite promising there. Ice is forming well in Kara and, looking at Google Earth Damocles, the water temperatures look quite good for further growth. In addition a much colder spell in the Kara area is about to commence - so we will see if this spell has any noticeable effect.

Its also worth noting that WSvalbard has much more ice than it has had since 2005 - again perhaps reflecting the sea temperatures and the favourable conditions for ice growth so far this year compared to 2006 and 2007.

We'll see!

MM

[carinthian]

Didnt 1976 provide some alarming trends up that way ?

Maybe wrong but it followed on from very warm summer in UK

However bridges of ice can occur

Yes Stewfox,

The spring retreat was even greater than present. However, a colder period was soon to return during the late 70s ansd early 80s.

C

[The Eagle]

A greater ice extent does not mean an automatically cold and snowy winter - however, as this week, if we get Northerlies Id say we could expect greater potency in terms of cold air. Very happy with the Ice extent myself.

Edited November 1, 2008 by Darkman

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

As important, the SSTAs around the UK are fast switching from 'radiator' to 'cooling fan' mode.

Arctic sea ice extent is now level with all years back to 2002.

[masheeuk]

I'm amazed this has slipped so far down page 2 especially with the ice extent now edging closer to the average levels and the lower than average SST's around the british isles.

[Stevew]

Just a quick comment triggered by postings above regarding the icecap extending to Iceland form Greenland.

Going back half a century or so,when i was at school,i remember an old weather book showed a map with a dotted line across the North coast of Iceland,labelled "limit of Ice in Spring"

Regretably i can`t think of the title and there are no records,i guess,to illustrate those maps now.

It does remind me of how the ice has retreated since those days.

Phil, I think you may be referring to the "Oxford School Atlas". I have a third edition from 1960. The "limit of pack ice" does get remarkably close to the coast of North Iceland!

[mcboz]

Actric Sea ice still doing well. In fact, it is very nearly above the average for the past 6 years.

Does anyone know what causes the kink in the graph each year around June?

Edited November 7, 2008 by mcboz

[stewfox]

Actric Sea ice still doing well. In fact, it is very nearly above the average for the past 6 years.

Are there graphs that go back pre 2002 ?

[The Eagle]

Artic Ice this year continues it's push toward the 30 year average, allbeit at a slow pace, however there is no doubt that anyone could see the improvement as anything less then impressive.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/..._timeseries.png

[Nick L]

Artic Ice this year continues it's push toward the 30 year average, allbeit at a slow pace, however there is no doubt that anyone could see the improvement as anything less then impressive.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/..._timeseries.png

The massive question is though, will it continue to hug the average line when we head into the melt season?

[Mr Maunder]

The massive question is though, will it continue to hug the average line when we head into the melt season?

I doubt that will be the criteria to judge the success of ice growth by.

Given the low levels of ice in 2007 and the modest improvement that took place in 2008 ice lovers should probably just look for a further gradual improvement in 2009.

Any rebuild to more immediate normal levels in summer (say 2002 levels) will, in my opinion anyway, probably take some time - at least five years - if it happens at all.

So I, for one, am not looking for the average line to be met when the melt season comes. I also have to say the melt season is the last thing on my mind at the moment. Lets have the ice growth season first - much more interesting IMHO!

MM

[Zerouali lives]

Actric Sea ice still doing well. In fact, it is very nearly above the average for the past 6 years.

Does anyone know what causes the kink in the graph each year around June?

That 'kink' around June is interesting - well spotted. I can't psossibly think as to why the trend is reversed around that time?

[J10]

Although slowing the Ice extent in 2008 remains well above the 2003-07 average by around 350,000sqkm2, and is the highest of the years 2003-2008 inclusive.

As for the kink in June, I would imagine this is due to some sort of realignment of the figures.

[oldsnowywizard]

2008 figures now above past 6 years levels for the time of year,a lthough battling with 2004 closely.. and still the levels climing ever closer to the mean.. quite awesome considering..

all things looking quite promising really.. colder or average ssts in those areas that count. cold pooling getting colder as time progresses. lots of low pressure around though so might do a bit of damage or else add to the ice thickness with snow fall ;-)

comparisons on the CT comparer show we are equal if not fairing better than years in the 90s..

yes we shall see what happens but im looking forward to the next 4 months of ice growth.. good work arctic!

[carinthian]

Good news from the North Barent Sea. Early formation of new ice and growth the best in the region for at least a decade. The development of the Arctic Vortex which is currently centred around Svalbard has created a cold pool and formation of the Polar Front. A good cyclonic circulation has formed way up through the layers will maintain the presence of the vortex in this location. At this stage of the winter,it is better placed here rather than drift off the Northern Greenland if a colder Northern European winter is preferred. Forecast of height rises of Greenland should allow the Arctic front to push southwards into Scandinavia and Central Europe sometime in the near future.

C

Edited November 13, 2008 by carinthian

[johnholmes]

thanks Paul, looking good for Austria with the upcoming cold spell?

is that where you are now based most of the time or are you still in cheesy Cheshire?

[Roger J Smith]

The kink in June may be caused by sea ice spreading south from Labrador around northern Newfoundland. This is one part of the n.h. where ice may actually increase from late May to early June, and perhaps on the average it temporarily outweighs the seasonal melt everywhere else. Otherwise, I can't think of any other possible reason for it.

Looking at some of the GFS maps 10-16 days from now, you would have to think that ice will be building south quite rapidly from Greenland to Svalbard.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Good news from the North Barent Sea. Early formation of new ice and growth the best in the region for at least a decade. The development of the Arctic Vortex which is currently centred around Svalbard has created a cold pool and formation of the Polar Front. A good cyclonic circulation has formed way up through the layers will maintain the presence of the vortex in this location. At this stage of the winter,it is better placed here rather than drift off the Northern Greenland if a colder Northern European winter is preferred. Forecast of height rises of Greenland should allow the Arctic front to push southwards into Scandinavia and Central Europe sometime in the near future.

C

Does this imply potential for a "sandwich" to occur between a Greenland High and a Svalbard Low? If so that sounds rather mouth-watering as far as potent northerly incursions is concerned...

[carinthian]

thanks Paul, looking good for Austria with the upcoming cold spell?

is that where you are now based most of the time or are you still in cheesy Cheshire?

hi John,

I am back in the wet plains of Cheshire at the moment. Will be out in Austria for the winter season from Mid- January (unless the euro/pound rates drops more! ) However, snow falling in Katschberg this morning . Chopped a lot of logs during the summer, just in case we get a cold one on the mountain. Last season although mostly mild did hold the early season snowfalls for much of the season. Watching those charts carefully for the Arctic Plunge !

Best Regards

Paul

Does this imply potential for a "sandwich" to occur between a Greenland High and a Svalbard Low? If so that sounds rather mouth-watering as far as potent northerly incursions is concerned...

Hello TW,

"sandwich " ? Are you referring to ice formation ?

cheers

C

[Thundery wintry showers]

I mean in terms of tightly packed isobars bringing a northerly flow down towards Britain, between HP over Greenland and LP over Svalbard.

[carinthian]

I mean in terms of tightly packed isobars bringing a northerly flow down towards Britain, between HP over Greenland and LP over Svalbard.

Yes, as you say, potentially very potent.

C

[carinthian]

The Polar night at Polar Bear Bay in Svalbard lasts until 12 th February 2009. Live shot there with the Hornsund Fjord and glacier in the background. Temperature -8C.

C

Edited November 13, 2008 by carinthian

[carinthian]

Its -11C in Polar Bear Bay on the SW Coast of Spitzbergen. Here the Spitzbergen current usually keeps the sea open, whilst the fjiords freeze over. Further North the Polar Ice sheeet starts to extend its influence around the coasts of Svalbard. The start of the season has shown a good growth of new ice in the North Barent, well up on the past 10 years. Growth should continue this week as the present cold weather starts to intensify. Mean temperatures are around -12C generally, this week will be nearer -17C . Wish I was there !

C

[johnholmes]

too cold mate, the Alps fine for me as long as the bone chilling easterlies don't occur. Try sitting on a chair lift at -15C, or lower! The swiss being so safety aware usually stop the lifts before those temps, even -10C and they warn you how cold it is.

[carinthian]

too cold mate, the Alps fine for me as long as the bone chilling easterlies don't occur. Try sitting on a chair lift at -15C, or lower! The swiss being so safety aware usually stop the lifts before those temps, even -10C and they warn you how cold it is.

Yes John, when it gets that cold, best find the "perfect hut". You know the ones with roaring log fires, seasoned wood,ski fodder( cheese and pine needle toasties) and Alpine Lager. Sod the lifts at those sort of temps.

C