Carinthians Latest Arctic Ice Reports

[oldsnowywizard]

update time..

hudson is letting us down a bit this year, there hasnt really been the true cold in this area yet to freeze the lake over.... this will change this week as significant cold air sweeps south. -25/30 expected.

comparison wise, only 2002 is above us, we are still doing much better than last year and 2006.. from http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

[SnOwFeSt]

How much does Hudson usually add on? It will be interesting to see how much the graph will ‘jump’ when Hudson (hopefully) freezes over this week. A few days of -25 should see it freezing over pretty quick I would have thought?

[carinthian]

How much does Hudson usually add on? It will be interesting to see how much the graph will ‘jump’ when Hudson (hopefully) freezes over this week. A few days of -25 should see it freezing over pretty quick I would have thought?

Hello,

At those sort of temperatures the fairly shallows waters will freeze over pretty sharpish. Probably another one million sq kms of ice formation due in Hudson Bay.

C

[SnOwFeSt]

Thanks, wow, so if an extra million is quickly added over the coming week (as it may do if there is sustained cold forecast), then we could be looking at having the highest ice extent since 2002 - would take the extent very quickly from the current 10.714 million, to about 11.7 million.

not bad considering how much we were below average over summer

[snowman69804]

i was just looking at the current SST anomailes and the fact that most of the northern hemisphere has colder SST in comparison to the southern Hemiphere which has warmer SST

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

i was just looking at the current SST anomailes and the fact that most of the northern hemisphere has colder SST in comparison to the southern Hemiphere which has warmer SST

Wow, that's an incredible anomaly map. Just goes to show how much the statistical quirk of which years are included in the analysis affects the result. My guess is this SSTA map has a more recent base year ... Late 1980s/1990s+? No, looking again, I get it now. Those anomalies show recent changes only. Still incredible, shows how much cooler the NH is, if the reduction is caused by atmosphere.

These SSTA charts show NH is warmer than the SH or that it is roughly equal.

If Hudson freezes over soon we may have over 1 million square kilometers more Arctic ice than last year. Significant increase that may affect UK is the bounce back in the Barents sea.

Edited December 1, 2008 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[J10]

Virtually every year the SST map looks similar as we head into winter, it does make you wonder about the base figures as you said.

[oldsnowywizard]

wow 3 pages back!

quick update.. due to very cold conditions finally over Hudson, the overall sea ice extent is soaring high.. just about to take over 2003 s level to have the best extent since 2002 records on IJIS. rate of increase is taking it close to the long term mean as well. overall things looking quite good.

[Norway Nut]

Any chance of an updated chart showing ice cover?

cheers

[osmposm]

Nut, go here - http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm - and here - http://www.nsidc.com/data/seaice_index/ima..._timeseries.png - and here - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...current.365.jpg

Pop 'em in your 'favourites'.

As you can see, re-growth seems to have accelerated again, and coverage is now about equal to this date in 2002-3-4 & well above 2005-6-7. It is also currrently narrowing the gap somewhat with the 1979-2000 mean. Interesting...though as G-W rightly always reminds, most of the ice is still woefully thin, however great its coverage.

Hudson Bay is now starting to play catch-up rapidly - as predicted, and as it always does sooner or later after a slow start: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM....region.13.html

Ossie

Edited December 11, 2008 by osmposm

[Jack Wales]

After viewing the forecast in the models for the next couple of weeks, I wouldn't bee surprised to see the ice cover in the barents take a hammering. The numerous storms forecast for the region will not only bring milder air but assist in breaking up the recently formed ice cover.

[carinthian]

Any chance of an updated chart showing ice cover?

cheers

Morning NN,

There will be a start of winter up-date this week.

Cheers

C

[oldsnowywizard]

oh dear we have now lost the advantage in terms of sea ice extent and are now back equal to last year. good news is that the ice is starting to grow back a bit after 2 weeks of a lull...

[BrickFielder]

The National Snow and Ice Data Center(NSIDC) has a good report out on Sea Ice conditions this year.

Artic Sea Ice News and Analysis

Off particular note is the lack of ice build up in the greenland sea and barents sea area which ties in nicely with the low pressure anomaly during autumn towards the north atlantic which the NSIDC mentions.

In November, winds between the high-pressure cell north of Alaska and the unusually low-pressure cell on the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean have brought warmer-than-average air into the region.

This flow of warm air into the artic has been fairly consitent over the last few years and prevents ice build up to our north, thus limiting the amount of cold that can be expected during winter in the UK. Just at the moment though that blast of warm air into the artic has been shut off.

In fact with a tropospheric polar vortex currently forecast for the northern european continent centered just to the east of scandinavia those cooler temperatures are likely to persist for a few days.

I shall be watching carefully to see how ice builds up especially around sweden, as we might see more ice build up to our north than we have seen for a few years. Any long term return of atlantic warm air being pumped into the artic will negate this though.

Swedish Ice charts

Other Sea Ice links

These thoughts will be linked to others on different threads. Next up will be some thoughts in the stratosphere thread.

[PompeyFC]

why is there such a high anomily off the east coast of america ? is it something thats always there?

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

why is there such a high anomily off the east coast of america ? is it something thats always there?

An explanation I read from someone here was that it was a traffic jam of warm water from the North Atlantic Drift caused by persistant mid-Atlantic blocking (which circulates wind anti-clockwise, against the direction of the current).

[mezzacyclone]

why is there such a high anomily off the east coast of america ? is it something thats always there?

Further to AF`s reply between these posts Pompey and without wishing to stray too far from Carinth`s fine thread here?,

may i suggest tracing some of PP's posts as he (IMHO) pointed me in the right direction with all the eastern seaboard influences and the concurrent effect it has on the UK in regards to the "cyclogenesis" businesses hand in hand partnership with the anomily you mention ;o)

Edited January 2, 2009 by mezzacyclone

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Oh, my post should have said clockwise, not anti-clockwise!

I'll distract everyone with an update, which shows ice is about level with last year.

Although with cold now pouring out over the oceans one might expect this to continue and/or the anomaly to rise, perhaps especially in the Barents area.