Carinthians Latest Arctic Ice Reports

[Thundery wintry showers]

The Arctic- certainly the area to the north of Britain extending from Greenland across to Svalbard- looks like cooling down over the next few days, with temperatures projected to fall to near or rather below average, which should help ice growth.

[snowspotter]

now I am no expert but this chart does seem to show quite a dramatic rise which with a continuation of projection will intercept and overtake some of recent years ice extent within the next week or so..

[oldsnowywizard]

very useful chart there thanks for that snowspotter.. could you post the link where you got that from? thanks

Edited October 10, 2008 by oldsnowywizard

[oldsnowywizard]

interesting to see whats happening in the Arctic at the moment.. 850 temps are colder than previous years and seem to be bottled up over the arctic, the polar vortex for the next week just seems to move around the entire basin in a circle.. SSTs have dropped by 1 to 3 degrees in the last few days in places. ice growth is high... im just wondering if the reason for this years quick turn around is due to when the majority of the ice melted? last year there was about a month where the ice levels remained constant in Sep//Oct.. if you remember much of the ice that year metled during june and July. this year the majority of the ice melted later if i recall.. so maybe the freshwater didnt get a chance to be flushed out of the area, hence a quicker bounce back.. just a thought..

[snowspotter]

very useful chart there thanks for that snowspotter.. could you post the link where you got that from? thanks

here you go

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

[Nick L]

Cheers for that snowspotter, been wanting that link for a while.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

All looking very positive at the mo, excellent stuff. :o

[Mr Maunder]

here you go

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm

Yes, this is a useful and, I think, a nicely presented site. The final figures for each day (they issue preliminary figures earlier) come out at 3pm.

The IJIS site estimates all Arctic sea ice above 15% concentration, which explains the apparent difference between the figures on this site and those on the Cryosphere Today (CT) site - which only shows Arctic sea ice above 30% concentration.

To add to the confusion (and the difference in numbers), the CT figures are about 5 days behind IJIS. Today for example IJIS shows 6.352 m sq kilometres, whereas CT shows the ice extent as 4.057m sq kilometres.

The comparable IJIS figure for 5 days ago was 5.635 sq kilometres - which gives a good idea as to the current rate of increase.

My "estimation" from this is that CT will show a figure in the region of 4.8 m sq kilometres in 5 days time. We shall see!

Currently, as other posters have commented, ice levels are increasing quite nicely, when compared to the recent past. The forecast for the next week suggests that, for the immediate future this will continue. Conditions do need to stay favourable if the CT anomaly against the 1979-2000 mean (currently - 2.003m sq kilometres) is to be eroded earlier than in recent years.

At present the anomaly is holding its own (unlike last year) - although in the next 10 - 12 days it may make an inroad on CT (we already have an indicator of ice growth for the first 5 of these!).

MM

[ribster]

Someone is conspicuous in their absence, nothing to talk about I guess.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looking at the ice maps on the web, it seems that the ice coverage is growing in all sectors. There is currently an area of well above-average temperatures over Siberia which may be hindering the growth of ice towards that region, but Siberia looks set to cool down as well over the next few days.

[reef]

Its no suprise that ice extent is recovering quickly in the Arctic at the moment. Even in an ice-free Arctic you could probably expect similar. With the ice eroded to the extent of 2007/2008 the exposed ice fringe is effectively larger (and closer to the coldest air) meaning the percieved increase is more rapid as it expands in all directions.

Expect the levels to reach close to the levels of previous years this decade as the Arctic basin fills in, afterwards it becomes more difficult - and it is this ice on outer extremities of the Arctic that has proven very resilient to freezing in recent years. If this ice freezes more readily (14+ million sq km total extent seems to be the ballpark figure) then there would indeed be grounds for optimism.

Thats not to say that synoptics arent important too, the AO is strongly positive at the moment which is keeping the polar vortex and cold pooling locked up above the pole. This has a great effect on freezing up there, a more meridonal flow tends to divert cold air away from the pole and send plumes of warmer air into the Arctic circle, not to mention the winds pushing back the ice front.

[SMU]

A comparison of the 09/10 V last year-

Looking a lot more robust this year thus far-

I hope the graph from the NSIDC not only goes above the climatic norm but the peak of recents years coverage...

For those wishing to see some kind of comeback similar to Take that, then the anomaly of First year ice this year needs to translate to a +VE anomaly of second year ice in 2009...

Steve

Edited October 11, 2008 by Steve Murr

[Optimus Prime]

Certainly is massively more ice, having said that Snowcover is well down. Perhaps due to much less open water and evaporation?

[reef]

http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20080924_Figure3.jpg

That second chart is perhaps the most alarming. If we were to lose most of the first year ice in summer 2009 (not unusual) then we'll be looking at a new record low coverage by some way. The chart for this year shows how the cooler Arctic summer allowed a lot more first year ice than normal to survive.

We are indeed seeing a rapid increase in sea ice extent at the moment, but the volume of ice is looking very poor, possibly the worst yet. If synoptics or average temperatures are even a slight bit unfavourable next year, expect to see a massive ice loss which would make even 2007 look tame.

[Thundery wintry showers]

One thing I don't understand about those charts,

How come some areas that survived the 2007 melt are down as "first year ice"? I'd have thought that if those areas didn't melt last year then it would be physically impossible for them to be first year ice this year.

[reef]

One thing I don't understand about those charts,

How come some areas that survived the 2007 melt are down as "first year ice"? I'd have thought that if those areas didn't melt last year then it would be physically impossible for them to be first year ice this year.

Its most likely due to the movement of the ice via wind and ocean currents. Theres a definite outflow on the north-eastern coast of Greenland where multi-year ice is expelled into the Atlantic.

[LadyPakal]

Ice that formed for the first time last winter and survived the summer melt (currently first year ice) will be labelled as second year ice if it survives next summers melt. I think that's the way it works...?

Edited October 12, 2008 by LadyPakal

[Mr Sleet]

One thing I don't understand about those charts,

How come some areas that survived the 2007 melt are down as "first year ice"? I'd have thought that if those areas didn't melt last year then it would be physically impossible for them to be first year ice this year.

Well spotted TWS, I was thinking exactly the same thing, it makes no sense at all.

[Mr Maunder]

Certainly is massively more ice, having said that Snowcover is well down. Perhaps due to much less open water and evaporation?

I agree OP.

Also, as air and sea temperatures are, I believe, lower this year, then the question is whether, as there is less water vapour present in the atmosphere, there is a lower potential for excessive precipitation?

MM

[Filski]

Well spotted TWS, I was thinking exactly the same thing, it makes no sense at all.

It makes perfect sense when you realise that the ice is constantly moving. What you are seeing is a reduction in the amount of multi year ice as it is pushed up against Greenland and is replaced by single year ice behind. It's pretty alarming to see the amount of multiyear ice that has melted because of this action.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, so in essence we're seeing a "triple whammy" effect on the Arctic ice sheet- global warming, a change to "warm phase" synoptics of the sort that prevailed during the warm Arctic period of the 1930s, and ocean currents that favour transport of ice away from the coldest areas. This is illustrated by the fact that the recent period of stable global temperatures hasn't stopped the Arctic from warming dramatically. Worrying times indeed.

Recent scientific papers I've been reading suggest that even if anthropogenic forcing is largely behind the warming of the globe over the last century, it cannot explain all of the changes in atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere over the last few decades, although it might be contributing to it, and the same goes for changes in oceanic flow. So, in essence, from the evidence, my conclusion is more towards most of the ice melt being down to natural rather than anthropogenic forcing.

That could be taken as a positive, in the sense that such natural cycles tend to be temporary and chances are the Arctic will go into a cooler phase again in the future. However, if we see anything like the kind of anthropogenic contribution that is widely predicted among the scientific community for the 21st century, it probably won't get any cooler up there than it is now for at least a couple of centuries.

Edited October 13, 2008 by Thundery wintry showers

[carinthian]

Interesting satellite view today of the ice floes down the East Greenland coast. The ice appears much denser and broader than last year with older slabs of ice that have broken free from the main polar ice sheet. The East Greenland current now drives this further southwards along the coastline. Freezing temperatures now start to add to the volume of ice quickly. If you look carefully at the outer edge of the ice belt you will note the sea eddies traced out by slush and water mixture( pre 1979 this was counted as measured ice )

C

[phil nw.]

Hi Carinthian,

A better picture of ice build up compared to this time last year.Note the advance of ice towards Spitszbergen.

Earlier ice formation the other side of the pole as well,compared to last year.

Regards,Phil.

Edited October 16, 2008 by phil n.warks.

[Snowyowl9]

If it keeps on at that steepness on this interesting graph it`ll past all those years.

Just gone past 2005 anyway.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Hi Carinthian,

A better picture of ice build up compared to this time last year.Note the advance of ice towards Spitszbergen.

Earlier ice formation the other side of the pole as well,compared to last year.

Regards,Phil.

Thats a much better picture than this time last year, good news