Carinthians Latest Arctic Ice Reports

[carinthian]

Not sure this is the right place apologies if not, but another interesting ice melt article on the bbc news website, the Markham ice shelf has completly gone.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7595441.stm

All this fresh water into the ocean will this effect the AO?

Thanks Tribe for the arcticle,

The fresh water will soon freeze over again in a matter of weeks if not days, so I do not think the AO will be affected. Fluctuations in the AO to its mainly positive mode over the past 20 years , which was recorded to be very high in the early 1990s has set stage for the spectacular retreat in summer ice over the past few seasons. It is conceivable that given a run of -ve mode AO conditions, ice thickness and summer retention will gradually return. Large advances and retreats of the ice cap happened during the decade 1965-75 ( ice charts were logged and drawn during this period ) before satellite data became more advanced over the past 30 years, but not with-out error as has been previously mentioned throughout this thread.

C

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Carinth

Am I right in thinking that the Arctic Ice Cap has a fairly regular cycle, that it waxes and wanes naturally over a period of years and how does what we are seeing now compare with where it should be in that cycle?

[carinthian]

Carinth

Am I right in thinking that the Arctic Ice Cap has a fairly regular cycle, that it waxes and wanes naturally over a period of years and how does what we are seeing now compare with where it should be in that cycle?

hello SC, hope you are keeping warm up there.

Yes, a fairly regular cycle of ebbs and flows in the sea ice extent. The earliest charts derive from 1553 with vessels sailing to the Arctic to explore and hunt for sea food made all the early observations. Of course over the centuries technological advances have provided increased accurracy. It was not until 1967, that hand drawn charts were first produced to provide a reliable accurracy of the ice edge and concentration. The early mapping out in the late 60s certainly showed more ice retention in the period June to February than the past 20 years.

C

[Stevew]

Interesting discussion above regarding Polar Low developments in late 1960`s Winters.

I remember a Friday in February 1969 when a forecasted such development hit the Midlands at Lunchtime.

It started raining/sleeting then quickly turned to powder snow as the wind got up.

Chaos ensued within 2 hrs. as it quickly settled and by the time it peterd out around 7pm the Coventry/Warks area was virtually at a standstill.

I myself didn`t get home from work that night as many people were stranded in the nearest hotels workplaces or anywhere they could shelter.

Looking at the archives i have copied and posted the sypnotic chart for that day which shows a bitter Northerly flow right across the UK.

Something like this event would be unusual today but i too remember a number of these incidents in that era.

Phil

I know this is a bit off topic.

I remember Friday, 7th February 1969 very well. I was at school in Coventry and a morning of sleet showers tunred into an afternoon of a terrific snowstorm. The northerly winds picked up and the snow was whipped into substantial drifts.

Our school closed early as buses were being taken off the road. It was easy for me, living just 100 yards from school.

I kept (albeit inaccurate) weather records at the time and I recorded -5'c at 6pm as the snow began to abate. The next morning under wonderful blue arctic skies I recorded a minimum of -12'c.

My log for the day read "Dull sleet and snow showers. Heavy snow in the afternoon with drifitng. Gales".

Those were the days, definately my favourite weather day!

[phil nw.]

I seemed to have revived memories of the 69 Snowstorm amongst a number of our senior members.Thanks everyone for your responses which i have read with interest.

It was if 1969 was the swansong of a cold period in that decade because i recall a run of much milder Winters in the early 1970`s.

Apologies to Carinth if i steered the thread slightly off track but the mention of the advance towards Iceland of the ice in that period and its consequent effect on the severity of an Arctic flow to the UK sparked this memory.

Kind Regards,Phil.

Edited September 3, 2008 by phil n.warks.

[Chris Knight]

Interesting discussion above regarding Polar Low developments in late 1960`s Winters.

I remember a Friday in February 1969 when a forecasted such development hit the Midlands at Lunchtime.

It started raining/sleeting then quickly turned to powder snow as the wind got up.

Chaos ensued within 2 hrs. as it quickly settled and by the time it peterd out around 7pm the Coventry/Warks area was virtually at a standstill.

I myself didn`t get home from work that night as many people were stranded in the nearest hotels workplaces or anywhere they could shelter.

Looking at the archives i have copied and posted the sypnotic chart for that day which shows a bitter Northerly flow right across the UK.

Something like this event would be unusual today but i too remember a number of these incidents in that era.

Phil

I know this is a bit off topic.

I remember Friday, 7th February 1969 very well. I was at school in Coventry and a morning of sleet showers tunred into an afternoon of a terrific snowstorm. The northerly winds picked up and the snow was whipped into substantial drifts.

Our school closed early as buses were being taken off the road. It was easy for me, living just 100 yards from school.

I kept (albeit inaccurate) weather records at the time and I recorded -5'c at 6pm as the snow began to abate. The next morning under wonderful blue arctic skies I recorded a minimum of -12'c.

My log for the day read "Dull sleet and snow showers. Heavy snow in the afternoon with drifitng. Gales".

Those were the days, definately my favourite weather day!

I was at school in Moseley, Birmingham. It was the first time I experienced thunder and lightning with snow falling in winter. The only other time was in Worthing in early 2004, I think, a brief, strong northerly blizzard.

[carinthian]

I seemed to have revived memories of the 69 Snowstorm amongst a number of our senior members.Thanks everyone for your responses which i have read with interest.

It was if 1969 was the swansong of a cold period in that decade because i recall a run of much milder Winters in the early 1970`s.

Apologies to Carinth if i steered the thread slightly off track but the mention of the advance towards Iceland of the ice in that period and its consequent effect on the severity of an Arctic flow to the UK sparked this memory.

Kind Regards,Phil.

hi Phil,

Spot on. The 1960s was certainly a cold period, both in winter and summers, The coldest winter in memory was 62/63, but the polar low snowstorms of both 68 and 69 stood out in that decade of living in Cheshire. The period of 1970 to 75 saw a return to a run of very mild winters indeed, this period also saw a retreat of the polar ice cap from Iceland back to the coast of Eastern Greenland.

C

[Gray-Wolf]

After a brief 'slowdown' of a couple of days the ice melt seems to have regained the same 'gradient' of ice loss on the NSIDC 'daily ice plots' which ,in reality brings us rapidly closer to last years record low. Though surely it cannot occur, another week of the same would take us through last years record and beyond???

[Mr Maunder]

Oh well at least there is new snow at Svalbard!

Svalbard Zeppelin

Something to counteract the unremitting gloom.

MM

[Gray-Wolf]

So now we have the NE of Ellesmere Island in meltdown.

The article is worth a scan too

http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/09...rctics-new.html

Ice levels are still slowly creeping in on last years record low.......it's gonna be tight!

Edited September 5, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[snowspotter]

So now we have the NE of Ellesmere Island in meltdown.

The article is worth a scan too

http://blog.wired.com/wiredscience/2008/09...rctics-new.html

Ice levels are still slowly creeping in on last years record low.......it's gonna be tight!

It is interesting to read about the decline and reduction in these ice shelves. It looks from the graphs as though the average 'bottoming out' time is any time now (or within a week), last year melt continued a little longer. Having looked at the northern hemisphere GFS 850 charts I note that over the weekend there is a cold pool developing to the west of Greenland over the north of canada, i.e in this very area, that lasts all of next week. Are we to assume therefore that with rapidly dimiishing daylight and these lower 850 temperatures that the ice melt will cease and increase in these parts? I am wondering what a say -10 850 would equate to at the surface to initiate sea freezing?. I am also wondering whether we will get another heavily positive snow season in the northern hemisphere again as a result of the open water in the arctic.

Personally in view of the above I do not think we will match last years ice minimum unless I am missing other factors

[Gray-Wolf]

It is interesting to read about the decline and reduction in these ice shelves. It looks from the graphs as though the average 'bottoming out' time is any time now (or within a week), last year melt continued a little longer. Having looked at the northern hemisphere GFS 850 charts I note that over the weekend there is a cold pool developing to the west of Greenland over the north of Canada, i.e in this very area, that lasts all of next week. Are we to assume therefore that with rapidly diminishing daylight and these lower 850 temperatures that the ice melt will cease and increase in these parts? I am wondering what a say -10 850 would equate to at the surface to initiate sea freezing?. I am also wondering whether we will get another heavily positive snow season in the northern hemisphere again as a result of the open water in the arctic.

Personally in view of the above I do not think we will match last years ice minimum unless I am missing other factors

I think it's back to the old water V's air debate again. Sure 2m temps are now falling but the water is still melting the ice (and has been the main agent of melt for the past 2 weeks) and we have to figure how much more energy the seas absorbed this year (ice albedo 90%, water 'absorbency' 80+%) as to when the battle between cold air above and warm water below will be won by the 'cold air'.

The rougher the seas ,the more mixing of the surface layers occur and so the 'chilled' top layer of ocean is constantly replaced by warmer, lower levels leading to a slower 'ice up' in Autumn/winter.

As we approach last years record min. sea ice levels it is now the sea (IMHO) that is continuing the melt and not the weather/sunlight.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Sadly the temp anomalies on the NCDC graphs aren't working, but I'm pretty sure temperatures up in the Arctic are well above average (+0-5C instead of the early Sept norm of around -5) atm due to the warm pool that has headed north from central Eurasia- so whether it's mainly sea or air temps, air temps are not helping matters.

[Gray-Wolf]

Sadly the temp anomalies on the NSIDC graphs aren't working, but I'm pretty sure temperatures up in the Arctic are well above average (+0-5C instead of the early Sept norm of around -5) atm due to the warm pool that has headed north from central Eurasia- so whether it's mainly sea or air temps, air temps are not helping matters.

and the NSIDC plot confirms that we are still shedding ice at a fast rate. From the 'overflights' I've done with the MODIS suite of Sat's there is now an awful amount of open water with the odd intermittent rounded ice flow among it all. There does, however, seem to be a jam of free floating ice to the north of Svalbard (which was clear in July/Aug) so maybe Carinth will be proved right about his 'Iceland berg swarms' if the 'jam' looses and the trapped ice flows south to melt.

[mezzacyclone]

Speculation in terms of accuracy aside for a moment then -

A little flattening after the end of the first week of September?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Temperatures look set to be above average on "our" side of the Arctic in the near term, with 850hPa values of +0 to +5C, although nothing exceptional for the time of year. However, the Siberian/Asian side looks like having a trend towards below average temperatures as a cold pool of -10 to -15C at 850hPa develops.

Given that the flimsiest first-year ice appears to be over the Siberian/Asian side, where there has been a fair amount of melting over the past week, I currently think we're unlikely to match last year's minimum, although we're likely to run it a lot closer than many predicted we would.

[weather eater]

Given that the flimsiest first-year ice appears to be over the Siberian/Asian side, where there has been a fair amount of melting over the past week, I currently think we're unlikely to match last year's minimum, although we're likely to run it a lot closer than many predicted we would.

Its hardly surprising given the low set last year that this year has been so bad for it not to have been so would have required a seriously cold arctic summer, maybe someone has the figures I would be interested to know what the average temperatures have been in the arctic this summer.

[Chris Knight]

Its hardly surprising given the low set last year that this year has been so bad for it not to have been so would have required a seriously cold arctic summer, maybe someone has the figures I would be interested to know what the average temperatures have been in the arctic this summer.

This is the data from the Arctic theme page webcam and weather buoys set in the Ice in April. Previous data and plots can be found by following these links.

One major feature is that the winds have been much less during the summer since 2006.

Edited September 8, 2008 by Chris Knight

[Gray-Wolf]

We must now be approaching min ice levels, does anyone have a link to the amount of perennial ice that went south this year?

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Seems to have warmed up a bit in Svalbard

http://www.nilu.no/niluweb/services/zeppelin/

This has been white for over a week & now a thaw's set in by the look of it.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, there's a long draw of southerlies taking air right up from Britain to Svalbard at the moment.

[carinthian]

Yes, there's a long draw of southerlies taking air right up from Britain to Svalbard at the moment.

Evening,

Pump of warm air from a long way south sourced from the warmer climate of the Atlantic Ocean currently making in- roads in to the Greenland Basin holding back any early ice advance in this region. Typical of a Scandinavian Block becoming established .

C

[Anti-Mild]

Evening,

Pump of warm air from a long way south sourced from the warmer climate of the Atlantic Ocean currently making in- roads in to the Greenland Basin holding back any early ice advance in this region. Typical of a Scandinavian Block becoming established .

C

How long will it be established for is the question though.

Knowing our luck the SH will hang around until November 30th when it'll head off to the Bay of Biscay for a 3 month break where it'll lord it up with the high stratospheric temperatures that'll also be AWOL until March :lol: !

[carinthian]

How long will it be established for is the question though.

Knowing our luck the SH will hang around until November 30th when it'll head off to the Bay of Biscay for a 3 month break where it'll lord it up with the high stratospheric temperatures that'll also be AWOL until March :lol: !

hI AM,

God heip us AM. All cold weather freaks are spaced out enough after this run of terrible European snow free winters. The very thought of a Biscay high over December is worst than any credit crunch. Maybe this year for SH to dominate !

C

Edited September 15, 2008 by carinthian

[Gray-Wolf]

Seems to have warmed up a bit in Svalbard

http://www.nilu.no/niluweb/services/zeppelin/

This has been white for over a week & now a thaw's set in by the look of it.

My last jog over there with the MODIS suite showed the pack ice had withdrawn north of the north shore. The ice that is backed up behind there is a mess of well rounded, small floes.......I still don't think I could get a Kayak through there though!!!