Carinthians Latest Arctic Ice Reports

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

So you ignore the facts....thanks for admitting it. Quite an eye opener.

And so is your rudeness.

[osmposm]

Morning all,

Careful Boys ! This thread is primarily about conditions as it. Assumptions are made and trends questioned. There are a lot of good posts on this thread. I will not allow this thread to degenerate into improper reports that are not in accordance with fact. There is a lot of passion and concerns about the beauty and wilderness of our frozenland and don't let this thread turn into a personal slanging match.

thanks

C

Absolutely, Carinth. And I apologize for allowing myself to get slightly drawn into the fray.

Darkman - the Arctic Ice thread in Climate Change, please, for your answers to my questions to you (which are separate from your question to G-W, though his 'NO' answer is perhaps better understood by reading my questions to you).

Ossie

[J10]

Absolutely, Carinth. And I apologize for allowing myself to get slightly drawn into the fray.

Darkman - the Arctic Ice thread in Climate Change, please, for your answers to my questions to you (which are separate from your question to G-W, though his 'NO' answer is perhaps better understood by reading my questions to you).

Ossie

Indeed, all future comments relating to Climate Change on Arctic Ice should be in the the Arctic Ice thread, and any further posting in this thread of Climate Change issues will be moved.

[Gray-Wolf]

Are we seeing a retreat of the ice to the north of Svalbard and ,if so, where's it all going???

[Optimus Prime]

Are we seeing a retreat of the ice to the north of Svalbard and ,if so, where's it all going???

Into the sea by the looks of it.

[Gray-Wolf]

Into the sea by the looks of it.

BOOM, BOOM!

[Mr Maunder]

Are we seeing a retreat of the ice to the north of Svalbard and ,if so, where's it all going???

Looking at GFS the retreat does not look as if it will last very long, with colder air expected later this week.

It will be interesting to see how quickly the ice starts to rebuild. With sea temperatures (apparently) lower than they were last year I think we could see a quicker response this year. Without a significantly positive AO signal and with greater heights in the Arctic disruption to ice forming may be minimised.

As ever, time will tell.

MM

[carinthian]

Looking at GFS the retreat does not look as if it will last very long, with colder air expected later this week.

It will be interesting to see how quickly the ice starts to rebuild. With sea temperatures (apparently) lower than they were last year I think we could see a quicker response this year. Without a significantly positive AO signal and with greater heights in the Arctic disruption to ice forming may be minimised.

As ever, time will tell.

MM

Hello Mr Maunder,

Forecast of drift ice shows an advance southwards again towards Svalbard by the 23/9/08 with the arrival of the Arctic Front as it sweeps a much colder air mass south into the North Barent this coming week.

C

[arcticadventurer]

Are we seeing a retreat of the ice to the north of Svalbard and ,if so, where's it all going???

Into your imagination

B)

[Optimus Prime]

Comparison to last years record minimum;

Certainly more ice around, but hugely less around Greenland. Snowcover looks better this year

Look back 1980 and only then can you appreciate how things have changed remarkably so;

[phil nw.]

Good Post above O.P.

I looked at this too and my map illustrates that even as recently as 2001 there wasn`t dramatic loss of Ice compared to 1980.

.

Looking at 2008 map-posted by you- does really underline the loss in the last 7 years and shows how shrinking of Summer Ice has really accelerated since the turn of this Century.

Even in 2001 the Ice was still clinging to Alaska and N.Siberia.Not a dramatic difference to 1980 here.

The loss of ice also seems greater over the other side of the pole in recent years.

Interesting stuff though.

Edited September 22, 2008 by phil n.warks.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I've believed for quite a while that the Arctic temperatures have step-changed around 2002, especially during the winter.

Terminal Moraine used to refer to an article showing that the main reason for the demise of cold and snow during British winters up until 2002 was the decline in frequency at which the coldest airmasses reached Britain, with the cold air sources not having warmed significantly. A scan of the cold snaps during the 1990s bears this out- wintertime synoptics showed a warm bias, but when we got north and east winds, they were often still pretty potent.

Since 2002, half-hearted northerlies seem to have become far more common- we still do get potent ones from time to time, but all too often we find a northerly draw from near the pole, but source temperatures 10-15C above the long-term normal, resulting in temperatures in Britain struggling to fall below the long-term normal. Half-hearted easterlies have also been a prominent feature over the last few years or so. There is a strong sense of a step-change, where our cold air sources have got warmer.

I don't think it's a coincidence that the rapid melting in the Arctic commenced around the time that this trend started.

[Optimus Prime]

I think we're a little unlucky when it comes to easterly winds though TWS. When there is significant cold pooling to our east the atlantic seems to get its act together and keep the bitter cold a few hundred miles away.

I particularily remember the off-the-scale Northern blocking during the second half of February 2005, a massive area of High pressure joint together with the Greenland high and Siberian high dragged cold air across Britain from the east for the first time since 2003 and was consequently brought us the coldest spell of weather for the second half of February since 1986 (with an Average temperature of about 1.6c)

Problem was, at the time the easterlies were set in there was no frozen continent to draw anything really cold from, as a result it rained or snowed at night for most areas away from the east or high ground. But I think London broke the records set in 1947 for snow days, much of which never settled.

It wasn't until March 2005 that the Arctic cold pool crossed Europe and touched the far south east of England

A few examples;

Absolutely hugh blocking to the north

But where's the cold air?

Finally, but by that stage it's all collapsing.

I think the probablem we have these days are that the borderline between tropical and cold airmass has crept more and more northwards, as so the Arctic cold is shrinking and being stored directly in the Arctic circle itself and warming, meaning we're getting less and less likely to get very cold outbreaks, when the synoptics do occur they don't seem to deliver until the breakdown occurs, which by that stage the UKs too far west to behenfit from it.

If you turn the last chart upside down, it looks like one of those Mutant Ninja Turtles.

Edited September 22, 2008 by Optimus Prime

[phil nw.]

Certainly a pronounced change to the Ice minimum since 2001 T.W.S.

This is further illustrated by the Graph below,copied from the same site.

Whether this is the result of gradual warming of the 2 previous decades or a sudden warm up since the turn of the century i don`t know,but the result is that the oft mentioned tipping point has possibly been reached in the last few years--unless of course the Arctic cools again quite soon.

[Snowyowl9]

That is a very concerning graph seems like a coincidence/pattern there 1 year after 78/79 winter it peaks then again after 1981/82 then again after the last cold winters mid-80`s then 95/96 it shoots back up.

Just looking at the sea ice concetration just taking this as an e.g. for 1991 seems like there was quite an area of 60% with more reds for the area north of greenland as this year it shows it at 100% but yes it`s a dramatic loss from the far side.

[Mr Maunder]

I've believed for quite a while that the Arctic temperatures have step-changed around 2002, especially during the winter.

I don't think it's a coincidence that the rapid melting in the Arctic commenced around the time that this trend started.

TWS,

Look at SST anomalies for the NH for the period 1990 to 2008 from the link below. (acknowledgements to woodfortrees.org).

SSTs NH 1990 - 2008

It can be seen from this graph that there have, generally, been higher SSTs for the period 2002 to 2007 - which matches your own observation. This is primarily due (I would suggest) to the predominance of El Nino over La Nina during this period.

In 2008 La Nina has been in the ascendancy and the SSTs have fallen back. Given this fall in SSTs it will be interesting to see whether this has any significant effect on ice coverage and retention in the next 12 months.

MM

[SMU]

One must also note with the above reference to Easterlies-

With the more recent bout of Easterlies the Air is largly modified MP, which go round the top of a high into Central Europe before being advected to the UK- we are not getting true continental air-

Also with that ellusive Continental air came lower 850's because of the original Source- from either the Artic or Russian high-

OP's post with that ONE day of cold air arriving gave a maxima of 1c in SE london, which still correlates with a temperature I would expect from that type of Airmass- ( bearing in mind though it had only been mixed down to the surface for one day-)

the trajedy ( for snow lovers) is that we have NO data available in terms of easterly from say the 60's/ 70's V a modern Easterly because we havent had a taste of the TRUE airmass for SO LONG-

The Closest we came was that near miss in Jan 06-

I believe that Should we ever TAP a PROPER easterly again the modification upwards V the yesteryear Easterly will be less pronounced- maybe to the tune of only 1C against the more modified Northerlies we have seen that have seen a range of possibly 2/3C temps in comparision with similar weather types from the archives...

I do hope that in the next 2 or 3 years we do tap a PROPER easterly just so there is somre more information available..

S

Edited September 22, 2008 by Steve Murr

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think the long-draw easterlies that Steve refers to have always been rare, though somewhat more so in recent years due to tendency for a stronger, more northerly tracking jet etc. However, I see no reason why we couldn't have a severe easterly spell if such an airmass did reach Britain, considering that a relatively half-hearted easterly with 850hPa temps barely below -5C managed to produce a snow cover right out to the east coast itself on 3 January this year.

Arctic sourced easterlies are often more moist and thus more conducive to shower activity developing over the North Sea, but to get any significant cold from them we need a cold air source to begin with- which doesn't happen when the Arctic itself is 10-15C over par. But many of our recent "easterlies" have been very short draw anyway, originating not very far east or north.

Re Optimus Prime's post, there is certainly an issue of cold air in the Arctic being bottled up further north, such that it often takes longer for the coldest air to reach Britain via a northerly airflow- requiring the northerly to sustain for longer before we get any significant cold. But in addition, there's also the issue of increased pumping of warm temps into the Arctic itself, associated with a more northerly tracking jet. For instance if you check out the charts around 13 February 2005, most of the Arctic is hovering around -10C at 850hPa- in which case we'd struggle to get any decent cold snowy weather no matter how long a northerly sustained for, until the airmass source finally cooled down towards something vaguely resembling normality.

However, while the trend in Arctic temperatures is definitely upward, on occasion it can still get very cold up there- for instance Arctic temps returned to normal at the end of February 2006, giving us quite a potent northerly into March 2006.

[J10]

This summer has had a southerly tracking jet with good heights to the north of the UK, if only we could hold onto this for this oncoming winter.

[Mr Maunder]

An interesting report from the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA:

"NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA

230 PM AKDT MONDAY SEPTEMBER 22 2008

FORECAST VALID...SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 27 2008

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE

BEAUFORT SEA AFTER WEDNESDAY. NEW ICE WILL DEVELOP IN MUCH OF THE ICE

FREE WATERS BETWEEN 140W AND 155W WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE

1C OR LESS. ICE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ALASKA BARRIER ISLANDS ALONG

THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COASTS NORTH OF 70N.

A NOTE ON THE ICE FORECAST...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE

ALASKA CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEA COASTS ARE 2 TO 8 DEGREES CELSIUS

COLDER THIS YEAR THAN AT THE SAME TIME LAST YEAR. SEA ICE IN THESE

AREAS IS AT OR VERY NEAR THE SEASONAL MINIMUM. SIGNIFICANT ICE WILL

BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE ALASKA COAST NORTH OF 70N WITHIN THE NEXT

10 TO 14 DAYS."

There is probably nothing particlarly unusual about the ice development - it normally happens at this time of year!

The interesting part is a confirmation of lower regional sea temperatures v 2008

MM

[oldsnowywizard]

An interesting report from the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA:

There is probably nothing particlarly unusual about the ice development - it normally happens at this time of year!

The interesting part is a confirmation of lower regional sea temperatures v 2008

MM

sorry to post the above buts its the only site i can find that shows artic SSTs... everything is .25 of a degree ... i think i noted this earlier in the summer.. considering the amount of open water the anomolies didnt agree with the supposed warmer waters one might expect that are ice free for a while... there certainly arent the +8 degree anomolies that we saw a few years back which is good...

[carinthian]

An interesting report from the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA:

"NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA

230 PM AKDT MONDAY SEPTEMBER 22 2008

FORECAST VALID...SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 27 2008

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE

BEAUFORT SEA AFTER WEDNESDAY. NEW ICE WILL DEVELOP IN MUCH OF THE ICE

FREE WATERS BETWEEN 140W AND 155W WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE

1C OR LESS. ICE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE ALASKA BARRIER ISLANDS ALONG

THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH COASTS NORTH OF 70N.

A NOTE ON THE ICE FORECAST...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE

ALASKA CHUKCHI AND BEAUFORT SEA COASTS ARE 2 TO 8 DEGREES CELSIUS

COLDER THIS YEAR THAN AT THE SAME TIME LAST YEAR. SEA ICE IN THESE

AREAS IS AT OR VERY NEAR THE SEASONAL MINIMUM. SIGNIFICANT ICE WILL

BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE ALASKA COAST NORTH OF 70N WITHIN THE NEXT

10 TO 14 DAYS."

There is probably nothing particlarly unusual about the ice development - it normally happens at this time of year!

The interesting part is a confirmation of lower regional sea temperatures v 2008

MM

Thanks for the report Mr M. Forecast charts do indicate a movement south of the Arctic Front across the North American Arctic Rim. Sea temps up to 8C colder than last year ? Thats a hell of a lot in those waters !

C

Hello Mr Maunder,

Forecast of drift ice shows an advance southwards again towards Svalbard by the 23/9/08 with the arrival of the Arctic Front as it sweeps a much colder air mass south into the North Barent this coming week.

C

Afternoon, Arctic Front currently passing through Svalbard. Pictures from up there anyone? This same front will bring much colder conditions into Northern Scandinavia and spread down into Western Russia over the coming 7 days.

C

[phil nw.]

quote name='carinthian' date='23 Sep 2008, 05:49 PM' post='1333715']

Thanks for the report Mr M. Forecast charts do indicate a movement south of the Arctic Front across the North American Arctic Rim. Sea temps up to 8C colder than last year ? Thats a hell of a lot in those waters !

C

Afternoon, Arctic Front currently passing through Svalbard. Pictures from up there anyone? This same front will bring much colder conditions into Northern Scandinavia and spread down into Western Russia over the coming 7 days.

C

[Polar Continental]

Hi Carinthian,

just had a look at the webcam up there, looks as though the cold front has produced just a sprinkling, more to come later i would think.

Svalbard Webcam, time 18:00hrs

Paul

lol, phil has just put a couple up, oh well different locations

Edited September 23, 2008 by Polar Continental

[carinthian]

Hi Carinthian,

just had a look at the webcam up there, looks as though the cold front has produced just a sprinkling, more to come later i would think.

Svalbard Webcam, time 18:00hrs

Paul

lol, phil has just put a couple up, oh well different locations

Thanks for the pictures Phil and Paul. Yes , should turn white over the coming days as the snow level falls. Keep me informed with pictures up there please. I do not seem to be able to upload these shots.

Cheers

C