Winter Lrf By Rjs And Bftp

[Roger J Smith]

Next Saturday's lottery numbers are 528, 522, 516, 510, 504, 498 and 492. :lol: B)

[LLWA]

Next Saturday's lottery numbers are 528, 522, 516, 510, 504, 498 and 492.

Lol roger made me laugh. i have to say thjough your storm prediction spot on mate. well done. now for the second bit the cold do you still expect it to come off the severe cold you and bftp keep saying or going by the current trend not. bftp was saying last night to me over a pm that 6 january onwards could bring severe cold.

[Tractor]

I don't want it to seem like I'm championing RJS and BFTP but their original post on the 7th November now reads like a historical account rather than a forecast.

Exceptional stuff guys. Keep it up

Mods feel free to move this to a relevant place you see fit. Folk sorry for delay my PC failed on me yesterday.

Friday, 7 November, 2008

Cold spells ahead -- the combined winter forecast of BFTP and RJS

December.

December will then replicate this pattern of a milder start, after perhaps a few days of anticyclonic blocking and frosty nights. A severe storm is indicated as more likely than not, in the period 11th-14th, timed for the full moon at perigee which on this occasion will pretty much coincide with other strong energy peaks. So mark the calendar if not setting the watch for a strong SW to W wind event across the British Isles around the 12th-13th perhaps continuing with a second period of strong winds shortly after. This will also be a milder period with temperatures likely to peak around 12 C. After this, much colder conditions are likely to follow as blocking high pressure will quickly redevelop both to the north and well to the northeast, directing the jet stream back towards France and the Mediterranean. Whether it happens suddenly or in stages, there is likely to be a much colder period in late December and some chance for a white Christmas, although a better chance of a snowy New Years Eve and Day. With all of these variations, December is likely to register a near average 4.5 C on the old CET, but this will be less interesting than the week to week variations.

I don't want to be a party-pooper, but we've had the coldest start to winter for many years? So let's not suggest it is an historical record.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Lol roger made me laugh. i have to say thjough your storm prediction spot on mate. well done. now for the second bit the cold do you still expect it to come off the severe cold you and bftp keep saying or going by the current trend not. bftp was saying last night to me over a pm that 6 january onwards could bring severe cold.

LLWA

Can't remember if I used that date but if I did I was wrong. I'm sure I mentioned coldest period could be second half of Jan. This approaching cold spell to last to 6th Jan and signal to Atlantic trying to 'spoil' the party again. Basically the pattern/rhythm of winter repeating itself with better shot of cold each time.

Indeed tractor the cold lasted longer into Dec than expected but probably for cold prospects that is better still.

BFTP

Edited December 24, 2008 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[smhouston]

BFTP, RJS

I was wondering if you're going to be updating your forecast at all? Are you surprised by the outcome so far?

[The PIT]

Interesting to have an update. Gone wrong a few points so far the mild start start to December the storm that never was unless you stretch to rather active front and even then the winds were a different direction. Mild spell was a few days later but the blocking was correct although the CET temps to high which most of us guessed wrong anyway.

Jans going to be interesting with the blocking holding on despite the models predicting the end.

Edited January 3, 2009 by The PIT

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

BFTP, RJS

I was wondering if you're going to be updating your forecast at all? Are you surprised by the outcome so far?

No not surprised, I think overall it has verified pretty well so far but am surprised at the dryness.

Pit sorry mate but the storm/peak energy verified pretty well and am happy with that, re the wind direction the track was further south and got held up more...but the idea was a notable assault from the Atlantic...and it was for many . Folk have missed the frosty beginning to Dec BUT I have admitted the cold lasted longer into Dec than expected hence the CET difference.

The cold has been around as expected but the snow not so. Only update i can give is that the mild signal approaches and looks bang on cue again but there is nothing to suggest a change in the overall outlook yet asmy signals remain the same. I don't think the models are right yet beyond T120.

BFTP

Edited January 3, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[The PIT]

No not surprised, I think overall it has verified pretty well so far but am surprised at the dryness.

Pit sorry mate but the storm/peak energy verified pretty well and am happy with that and the real bad weather was to the day. Folk have missed the frosty beginning to Dec BUT I have admitted the cold lasted longer into Dec than expected hence the CET difference.

The cold has been around as expected but the snow not so. Only update i can give is that the mild signal approaches and looks bang on cue again but there is nothing to suggest a change in the overall outlook yet asmy signals remain the same. I don't think the models are right yet beyond T120.

BFTP

Well if you stretch it a lot you can make a storm out of a very little event but you've been a bit generous there. Lets see what Jan brings.

[Stratos Ferric]

Well if you stretch it a lot you can make a storm out of a very little event but you've been a bit generous there. Lets see what Jan brings.

Self assessing forecasts is always likely to be fraught with potential bias. Ken Ring had re-interpretation down to a tee. Whatever happened to the self acclaimed king of the LRF anyway?

[Mammatus]

Well if you stretch it a lot you can make a storm out of a very little event but you've been a bit generous there. Lets see what Jan brings.

I remember reading some comments on here regarding BFTP's LRF and the 'nailing' of the mid-December storm............................ I agree wholly with The PIT!

Self assessing forecasts is always likely to be fraught with potential bias. Ken Ring had re-interpretation down to a tee. Whatever happened to the self acclaimed king of the LRF anyway?

And agree wholeheartedly with this too.

Seasons.

Edited January 3, 2009 by Seasons

[smhouston]

Well if you stretch it a lot you can make a storm out of a very little event but you've been a bit generous there. Lets see what Jan brings.

I'd have to disagree with that tbh. To predict a storm so far out in the range of dates provided is pretty good tbh. Fair enough, the intensity wasn't there, but the date was. I don't think that anyone who does a LRF expects to have all the details nailed on 100%, and is more of just a guideline of what is to happen.

Edited January 3, 2009 by smhouston

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thanks for the comments guys, some pros some cons......only to be expected. I look forward to full review but neartime I look forward to rest of Jan.

BFTP

[Roger J Smith]

One criticism of the forecast actually refers to my rather poor wording of the first half of December, as I read it over, I can see that it sounds as though we expected mild weather from the start, but you'll see both from the actual wording and by implication of the lunar declination cycle, this mild weather was expected to start some time into the month after a period of colder weather (with inversion high pressure mentioned) extending from late November. So that supposed error was more of an error in syntax than forecasting. The storm forecast was not badly received by readers in northern Scotland as you can see looking back in the thread, the winds were not particularly strong over southern England although the 12th was the windiest day of the month in most places.

Some of the other comments here about Ken Ring, self-assessment etc, seem to be a case of sour grapes to me, perhaps one or two people were hoping to make a feast of our cold forecast and feel a bit let down when all they can do is nit-pick.

In any case, Fred was asked by several members (and more in PMs) to comment and update. So he did, and I think he has given a fair assessment, we are not trying to claim anything that we didn't say or that didn't already happen. This has been quite a cold winter so far, which is what anyone would have expected from our forecast. The details will be interesting to compare at the end. I think my comments about the correlation between lunar declination and temperature have been verifying to date and are progged to continue to verify by the models as declination rises. The actual signal is lagged and this shows up in the research data too, with the warming more concentrated after the northern max of declination, to about the point where the Moon moves south of the equator again. Both November and December showed this tendency, and the models say that January will also.

So in general, I think the forecast gave a reasonable heads up for what was coming, of course there would always be room for improvement, but I rather resent attempts to invalidate the whole thing and cast aspersions on our honesty here. In particular, I would call for a retraction of the comments about Ken Ring, which are not only possibly unfair to him (I don't know) but are certainly unfair to us.

This seems to be the new standard of discussion in meteorology in general, and no wonder, with the troubles that the global warming lobby are having with all the cold weather.

Edited January 3, 2009 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Sorry RJS from the original wording you expected a mild start to Dec. Too late retract this well after the event. At least you agree that call for a widespread storm was slightly off. The actual windiest day was the 8th not the 12th for here anyway. However the end of the month is looking fairly well spot on and errors are too be expected. Lets see how the whole thing spins out before writing it off altogether.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Lets see how the whole thing spins out before writing it off altogether.

PIT

I do take exception to that. Write the whole thing off?? Look here is the start of the December forecast

December will then replicate this pattern of a milder start, after perhaps a few days of anticyclonic blocking and frosty nights.

So we had the cold frosty start but it stayed longer and the start was to be milder/not mild. We accept that the cold was stronger...but like i say that probably overall was a good thing. I think we saw some very notable weather on the 12th mate...ask around. But to be generous it could have been stormier.

Write it off altogether...please don't be so insulting or misleading. :lol:

BFTP

Edited January 4, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[The PIT]

PIT

I do take exception to that. Write the whole thing off?? Sorry mate show me your forecast please...oh you don't have one.

BFTP

On my website as always. Anyway since you're taking offence I'll write your forecast off from this point on since I was giving you a break. Cheers.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

On my website as always. Anyway since you're taking offence I'll write your forecast off from this point on since I was giving you a break. Cheers.

You already had. :lol:

BFTP

[cheeky_monkey]

i thnk december was pretty good..but reading between the lines of recent post it seems the cold end of december and the spell we are in now..isnt quite the way the cold should have been...ie maybe you expected a different set up to deliver cold?

as for january ill take my hat off to you if it does play out the way you think..at the momnet i dont see any signal for an even colder spell to follow in the 2nd half of jan

[Iceberg]

The storm forecast was not badly received by readers in northern Scotland as you can see looking back in the thread, the winds were not particularly strong over southern England although the 12th was the windiest day of the month in most places.

I think the problem with the above is that you said it would be a severe winter storm, i think you were partly right but perhapes overegged the severe nature of it.

This has been quite a cold winter so far, which is what anyone would have expected from our forecast. The details will be interesting to compare at the end.

Sorry rjs but you did not say that december would be cold you said in your forecast that it would be average, with cold and warm segments.

I also think that you should probably tighten your wording up a little I said earlier that for November your CET range was a whopping 2 or 3 degrees the same can be said for the jan prediction.

"and the CET could be lower than 3 C for the first time since Jan 1997!, and could even reach the depths of sub-2.0 if everything works out perfectly." It could be anything from average to 1.0 and you could claim it's right.

This seems to be the new standard of discussion in meteorology in general, and no wonder, with the troubles that the global warming lobby are having with all the cold weather.

Again I will only respond to this climate comment as your forecast has nothing to do with GW, but it doesn't seem to matter how many times I say that some cold weather in a few areas does not a cold globe make and the recent top 10 months(the last two recorded really back this up).

I've put my comments in bold so i hope it works.

[Roger J Smith]

I'm not sure what set off this flurry of hostile criticism, perhaps the cold weather?

Does anyone seriously think that the AGW theory has been subjected to such a high standard of criticism? I doubt it. There, people seem to be able to get away with obvious mis-statements of fact as long as they convey the desired impression to the media and the politicians.

Fred and I gave this forecast an honest effort and we think it's not that bad. If there is some requirement that we should be slated for our efforts halfway through by a clique of global warmers, then it will discourage us from posting any more forecasts. I suspect that is the real intention here.

Edited January 4, 2009 by Roger J Smith

[TEITS]

Have to say im very impressed with RJS & BFTP forecast.

Reading some of the comments on this thread has reminded me why I don't bother forecasting anymore!

Keep up the excellent work because im fasinated by your methods.

[Yeti]

Don't worry Fred and Roger, I think it has been the best forecast available (much better than the Meto forecast) and for this it deserves considerable praise. It has proven very accurate and I look forward to your updated thoughts on the rest of this winter, as well as those for next winter when the time comes.

[Polar Continental]

Hi Roger, BFTP,

Though I don’t make many comments, for the record, I thoroughly enjoy reading your thoughts / forecasts etc, which has proved accurate for the most part. LRF’s presents a very difficult challenge, not something I would relish. All credit to you.

Paul

[The PIT]

You already had.

BFTP

I hadn't but considering your over aggressive stance when questioned about the errors makes one wonder why you're developing the theory as it seems cast in iron.

RJS response was much more mature and honest agreeing that were errors which is fine. I was then quite prepared to look on Jan and Feb and see how that goes. If that came up trumps then you've got 66% accuracy which would be fairly impressive would it not. However from my stand point it seems that the forecast is going to be right whatever happens and that anyone that questions it will be met with a hostile response. A response which differs starkly when GP made a forecast in the past which went array. Instead of blasting anyone who questioned it he said it went wrong, went away looking at why it had and has come back with much stronger more accurate predictions.

[winterof79]

I hadn't but considering your over aggressive stance when questioned about the errors makes one wonder why you're developing the theory as it seems cast in iron.

RJS response was much more mature and honest agreeing that were errors which is fine. I was then quite prepared to look on Jan and Feb and see how that goes. If that came up trumps then you've got 66% accuracy which would be fairly impressive would it not. However from my stand point it seems that the forecast is going to be right whatever happens and that anyone that questions it will be met with a hostile response. A response which differs starkly when GP made a forecast in the past which went array. Instead of blasting anyone who questioned it he said it went wrong, went away looking at why it had and has come back with much stronger more accurate predictions.

I do not think Fred and Roger have done a bad job so far.May i suggest that you my friend were looking to dismiss the forecast at any opportunity from what i have just read