Atlantic Lows - Winter 08 - Spring 09

[Zenarcher]

Update using NW extra charts,

Thursday 12am

Thursday 6pm

Friday 12pm

Saturday 6pm

Saturday 9pm

Sunday 12am

[grab my graupel]

I wonder whether you might be changing your signature, after this weekend, Sean

[Zenarcher]

I wonder whether you might be changing your signature, after this weekend, Sean

Will have to wait and see my local paper confirmed that 101mph gust in October, last winter the highest was 104mph.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Looks like were in for some fun again in the isles :o

[Zenarcher]

Looks like were in for some fun again in the isles

Good day for the washing? :o

[grab my graupel]

Looks like were in for some fun again in the isles :o

Yep, hold tight Bob

[mountain shadow]

Batten down the hatches, theirs a storm comin in.

Looking to see whether the storm moves further south as it interacts with the block out east.

Expect early warning from the Meto tomorrow.

[Cookie]

Stay safe up there Cookie ,

nigel

Anyway, thanks for the updates guys, and stay safe

thanks Nigel and Brian

right time for an update,

thread here for talking about Saturday's storm

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...p;#entry1424748

for the moment will be using this thread to discuss Wednesday and Thursdays storm

Current fax chart from the met office, which shows the current synoptic set up.

the above taken from here

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...;type=fax;sess=

The current general synopsis

The general synopsis at midnight

Developing Atlantic low moving northeast, expected 100 miles west of Rockall 963 by midnight tonight

The latest Sea area gale warnings, issued by the Met Office, on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency.

Gale warnings

Last updated on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1125.

Viking, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1009

Southeasterly gale force 8 expected later

Cromarty, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1009

Southeasterly gale force 8 expected later

Plymouth, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1009

Southerly gale force 8 expected later

Trafalgar, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1009

Southerly gale force 8 expected soon

Fitzroy, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 0342

Southerly gale force 8 increasing severe gale force 9 soon

Sole, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 0342

Southerly gale force 8 increasing severe gale force 9 soon

Lundy, issued on Tuesday 13 January 2009 at 2143

Southerly gale force 8 expected later

Fastnet, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1009

Southerly severe gale force 9 expected soon

Irish Sea, issued on Tuesday 13 January 2009 at 2143

Southerly gale force 8 expected later

Shannon, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 0342

Gale force 8 veering southerly and increasing severe gale force 9 soon

Rockall, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 0342

Easterly severe gale force 9 increasing storm force 10 soon

Malin, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 0342

Southeasterly gale force 8 increasing severe gale force 9 soon

Hebrides, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1009

Southeasterly severe gale force 9 increasing storm force 10 soon

Bailey, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1009

Easterly severe gale force 9 increasing storm force 10 soon

Fair Isle, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1009

Southeasterly gale force 8 expected soon, increasing severe gale force 9 later

Faeroes, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 0342

Southeasterly severe gale force 9 expected later

Southeast Iceland, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 0342

Southeasterly severe gale force 9 expected later

All of the above can be found here

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine..._printable.html

Key

Force 9 - BOLD

FORCE 10, 11 AND 12 - RED

* this is my own key and just found it makes it clearer and easier to read*

back to the fax charts

Thursday

Friday

Top wind speeds today

Ness isle of lewis - 18.4 mph http://www.gm7pbb.co.uk/

Fair isle - 2 mph http://www.northisles-weather.co.uk/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm

Barra - 67.9 mph http://www.barraweather.com/page22.php

Point- isle of lewis 18.1 mph http://www.hebrides-photos.com/weather/Weatherindex.php

Gulberwick Shetland - 10.5 mph http://shetlandweather.fortunecity.com/shetlandweather.htm

bar barra most places its the calm before the storm, will update further tonight

[Zenarcher]

Gusting up to 50mph here right now with heavy rain mixed with hail.

[Cookie]

good evening time for another update.

this and possibly one more update will be made in this thread, till next week as will be jumping ship for my updates to the Saturdays low pressure thread.

Current fax chart from the met office, which shows the current synoptic set up.

the above taken from here

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...;type=fax;sess=

The current general synopsis

The general synopsis at midday

Low 240 miles west of Shannon 970 expected just west of Bailey with little change by midday tomorrow

The latest Sea area gale warnings, issued by the Met Office, on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency.

Gale warnings

Last updated on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 2207.

Viking, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 2201

Southeasterly gale force 8 expected soon, increasing severe gale force 9 later

North Utsire, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 2201

Southeasterly gale force 8 expected soon, increasing severe gale force 9 later

South Utsire, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1610

Southeasterly gale force 8 expected later

Forties, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1610

Southeasterly gale force 8 expected later

Cromarty, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1009

Southeasterly gale force 8 expected later

Plymouth, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1009

Southerly gale force 8 expected later

Biscay, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1610

Southerly gale force 8 expected soon

Trafalgar, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1009

Southerly gale force 8 expected soon

Fitzroy, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 0342

Southerly gale force 8 increasing severe gale force 9 soon

Sole, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 2201

Southerly severe gale force 9 decreasing gale force 8 soon

Lundy, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 2201

Southerly gale force 8 increasing severe gale force 9 soon

Fastnet, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1009

Southerly severe gale force 9 expected soon

Irish Sea, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 2201

Southerly gale force 8 increasing severe gale force 9 soon

Shannon, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 0342

Gale force 8 veering southerly and increasing severe gale force 9 soon

Rockall, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 2201

Storm force 10 veering southeasterly soon

Malin, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 0342

Southeasterly gale force 8 increasing severe gale force 9 soon

Hebrides, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1009

Southeasterly severe gale force 9 increasing storm force 10 soon

Bailey, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 2201

Storm force 10 veering southeasterly soon

Fair Isle, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1009

Southeasterly gale force 8 expected soon, increasing severe gale force 9 later

Faeroes, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1610

Southeasterly gale force 8 imminent, increasing storm force 10 soon

Southeast Iceland, issued on Wednesday 14 January 2009 at 1610

Southeasterly gale force 8 imminent, increasing storm force 10 soon

All of the above can be found here

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine..._printable.html

Key

Force 9 - BOLD

FORCE 10, 11 AND 12 - RED

* this is my own key and just found it makes it clearer and easier to read*

some of the top wind speeds today

Cairngorm Mtns (1245 m) 89 mph

Aonach Mor (1130 m) 67 mph

Tiree Island (12 m) 57 mph

Islay/Port Ellen (17 m) 57 mph

South Uist Range (4 m) 55 mph

Drumalbin (245 m) 53 mph

Sule Skerry (12 m) 50 mph

Great Dun Fell (847 m) 50 mph

Machrihanish (10 m) 48 mph

Eglinton AP (9 m) 47 mph

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/akt...p;x=13&y=13

back to the fax charts

Thursday

Friday

Top wind speeds today

Ness isle of lewis - 51.8 mph http://www.gm7pbb.co.uk/

Fair isle - 32 mph http://www.northisles-weather.co.uk/Current_Vantage_Pro.htm

Barra - 67.9 mph http://www.barraweather.com/page22.php

Point- isle of lewis 40.1 mph http://www.hebrides-photos.com/weather/Weatherindex.php

Gulberwick Shetland - 35.8 mph http://shetlandweather.fortunecity.com/shetlandweather.htm

working all day tomorrow, so next full update will be tomorrow night

[Zenarcher]

Gusting up to 60mph in some places right now in the Western Isles.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Pretty much same here Sean, top gust 56mph so far, steady windspeeds in excess of 30mph.

[Zenarcher]

Yep, still gusting up to 60mph in places.

[Mondy]

12z

Very strong winds for west Ireland initially, circa 964mb

Most of Ireland under severe gales.

West coast of Scotland now under severe gales, circa 952mb

Western Isles, at least storm force conditions, circa 948mb :o

944mb, doesn't look good at all for western isles, west Scotland

[grab my graupel]

Not seen the Models today, until now, and I have to say, I wasn't expecting the storm

system to look anything like as severe as it does this evening

I'm shocked

[Zenarcher]

Gusting to 66mph here right now wind chill -8c just came home and its freezing!

[Shadow]

Oh dear yet more wind I am getting fed up with it. Roll on the summer is what I say.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Really seems ot be kicking up again here after it eased down a touch during the afternoon. Just had a gust over 55mph and steady windspeeds are back in excess of 30mph again.

[Roger J Smith]

Posted on the other storm thread that on current GFS guidance, western Isles could see sustained 70 mph winds Saturday afternoon-evening, gusts to 100 mph, strong enough for considerable damage (to structures, I know about the lack of trees). Exposed locations further south and east in Scotland and some parts of Ireland could see sustained 50 with gusts to 80, marginal for damage. The duration of strong winds in this second zone also looks to be brief, but the western Isles would see winds about as severe as in the 2005 storm, I believe. That is, if the model forecast is accurate. At this range, hard to estimate the chances of that, the set-up looks good (or bad, depending on POV).

[Cookie]

any mention of jan 2005 sends shudders down the spines of people in the western isles

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

Still windy and still gusting in excess of 50mph, theres really been no easing in this all day.

[Roger J Smith]

SC, the latest GFS certainly looks ominous for Shetlands, in fact, for most of Ireland and Scotland, the forecast could be changing with every new run, it's hard to get much of a feel for where this low is really going to end up after such a constant shifting around on model runs. I think everyone would be well advised to stay tuned to the latest available alerts here, because I am pretty certain this will be very much of a nowcast situation. Lows that reach 940 to 945 mbs are rare enough, but when they also deepen moving north, that's even more of a danger signal for people to the east of the track.

This second potential storm for late Monday in southern England, I think, will only come into any sort of clear focus once the Saturday one is finished. Once again, almost anything could actually happen with that one, including another downgrade to a weak trough.

It's the large scale pattern that is conducive here to storm development, the short waves are not that well defined and may explode with little advance notice.

[Cookie]

winds gusting up to 40 mph, will do a full update tonight

[Zenarcher]

Only gusting to 25mph here tonight much calmer night compared to last night. Glad to hear your ok Cookie

[Cookie]

I have done an update for a while but will try and get back into the habit of doing them and don't want to lose this thread from vanishing off the bottom.