February CET

[snowray]

February 1979 was a very cold month - a CET of 1.2. Januarys 1985 and 1987 were also very cold. There were many intense and prolonged cold spells from 1977-87.

The CET for February 2009 looks set to be about 4*C or a shade above - making Winter 2008-09 to have a CET of about 3.6. Not a particularly cold winter overall, but still colder than almost all of the last 20 years and certainly the coldest winter since 1995-96. Although we still haven't seen a sub 3*C month this winter, we have managed a CET of about 2.7 from mid-January to mid-February, so still a sub 3*C mid-month to mid-month period. We have also seen only the second sub 3.5*C calendar month since Jan 1997, and the first month since Jan 2001 to record a CET below 3.5*C.

I thought that we were going to end up well above 4c, more like 4.4, 4.5c maybe, have I missed something?

27th and 28th could get up to the mid teens from what I can see with night time temps only down to 4 or 5c at best, thats an average of about 9/10c.

[Kentish Man]

Climate UK (Manley) are now on 3.8C (Feb 1 - 25).

Looks like the 71/00 average of 4.2C might just be breached.

[The PIT]

Hadley up too 4C one very mild day coming up followed by a mild day. Who would have thought an above average Feb.

[Roger J Smith]

The Pit asks, who would have thought an above average Feb?

Check it out ...

4.0C: Jack Wales

4.0C: davehsug

4.1C: Stargazer

4.1C: V for Very Cold

4.1C: Supercell

4.2C: Summer Blizzard

4.2C Snowsure

4.3C: High Ground Birmingham

4.4C: Reef

4.5C: Duncan McAlister

4.5C: tonyh

4.5C: West is Best

4.9C: Roger J Smith

5.2C: Mark Foster 630

5.4C: Paul B

7.1C: Mike W

7.1C: Snowingman

8.0C: Craig Evans

Edited February 26, 2009 by Roger J Smith

[Kentish Man]

The Climate UK (Manley) headline figure rose by "only" 0.1C to 3.9C yesterday (Feb 1 - 26) on the back of a slightly cooler night the night before. Last Night was very mild in the CET zone and so a rise of at least 0.2C is likely today given it is predicted to be the warmest day so far this month. The February landing zone on Manley now looks like 4.2C - 4.4C and I guess the adjusted Hadley figure will be similar.

[Stargazer]

A quick question for the experts...will the final figure include the night of Jan 31/Feb 1 or Feb 28/March 1? May make a small difference as Saturday night looks colder than we've had recently.

[Nick H]

A quick question for the experts...will the final figure include the night of Jan 31/Feb 1 or Feb 28/March 1? May make a small difference as Saturday night looks colder than we've had recently.

I'm not an expert but the answer is the former.

At the end of the 6 o'clock news last night, Alex Deakin said February had been the coldest since 1996. In fact, 2003 and 2006 were colder. What are they checking against and why can't they get a simple fact such as this correct?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00hvwnv

[Weather-history]

The CET for February 2009 looks set to be about 4*C or a shade above - making Winter 2008-09 to have a CET of about 3.6. Not a particularly cold winter overall, but still colder than almost all of the last 20 years and certainly the coldest winter since 1995-96.

It would actually be a fairly typical 1960s winters. With the exception of 1962-63, the winters of the 1960s were not that particularly cold overall. There were more winters of CET of 3.0 and below in the 1990s than in the 1960s

Edited February 27, 2009 by Mr_Data

[snowray]

Temps seem to have peaked this afternoon at just a whisker short of 15c in many locations in the SE of England, 12-14c seems to be the Norm though to the South and South East but nearer 9/12c range in the South West and West Midlands, is London (14.5c) in the CET zone I wonder? If it is then the CET could jump quite a bit, Charlwood even warmer than London, highest temp I can find is 14.8c for Charlwood!

Edited February 27, 2009 by snowray

[snowray]

The Climate UK (Manley) headline figure rose by "only" 0.1C to 3.9C yesterday (Feb 1 - 26) on the back of a slightly cooler night the night before. Last Night was very mild in the CET zone and so a rise of at least 0.2C is likely today given it is predicted to be the warmest day so far this month. The February landing zone on Manley now looks like 4.2C - 4.4C and I guess the adjusted Hadley figure will be similar.

I wonder if that 3.9c has been rounded up or down? Thought it would have been over 4c by now, its been so mild of late.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The Pit asks, who would have thought an above average Feb?

Check it out ...

4.0C: Jack Wales

4.0C: davehsug

4.1C: Stargazer

4.1C: V for Very Cold

4.1C: Supercell

4.2C: Summer Blizzard

4.2C Snowsure

4.3C: High Ground Birmingham

4.4C: Reef

4.5C: Duncan McAlister

4.5C: tonyh

4.5C: West is Best

4.9C: Roger J Smith

5.2C: Mark Foster 630

5.4C: Paul B

7.1C: Mike W

7.1C: Snowingman

8.0C: Craig Evans

All very lucky

BFTP

[North-Easterly Blast]

It would actually be a fairly typical 1960s winters. With the exception of 1962-63, the winters of the 1960s were not that particularly cold overall. There were more winters of CET of 3.0 and below in the 1990s than in the 1960s

While it is true that the winter of 1990-91 saw a notable freezing spell in the first half of February which most people remember and is often quoted on here; what is almost never mentioned is the way that particular severe spell in Feb 1991 was followed by a lengthy very mild spell and March 1991 was an extremely mild month. After the very cold spell in Feb 1991 was over by the final third of February winter never returned. It really is pretty rare to have such a mild March after such a cold February as was the case in 1991.

Winter 1995-96 was much different though, that winter was cold overall with a cold March on top. Cold spells with snow and northerly / easterly spells were frequent during the 1995-96 winter and this also continued through most of March giving a month colder than a number of Januarys and Februarys in the 1990s and 2000s. So when you look at it this way, it was into the start of April before the cold 1995-96 winter really ended.

The winter of 1990-91 wasn't all it was cracked up to be in comparison to 1995-96 when you look at the very mild weather at the end of it, totally unlike 1996.

The Decembers of the 1960s were certainly cold overall, (the coldest December decade of the 1900s by a long way) whereas the Januarys and Februarys were not that particularly cold overall during that decade (1963 apart). It is also true that the winters of 1968-69 and 1969-70 (cold overall but not excessively so) had particularly cold Marches on top. The winter of 1968-69 was cold overall but had a mild January, which would have seemed a let down that year in preventing a particularly cold winter overall when the rest of the winter was great. It can also be pointed out that Jan - Feb 1969 saw one of the greatest collapses on record for the CET (beaten only by 1983 if I am correct?)

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

The Pit asks, who would have thought an above average Feb?

Check it out ...

4.0C: Jack Wales

4.0C: davehsug

4.1C: Stargazer

4.1C: V for Very Cold

4.1C: Supercell

4.2C: Summer Blizzard

4.2C Snowsure

4.3C: High Ground Birmingham

4.4C: Reef

4.5C: Duncan McAlister

4.5C: tonyh

4.5C: West is Best

4.9C: Roger J Smith

5.2C: Mark Foster 630

5.4C: Paul B

7.1C: Mike W

7.1C: Snowingman

8.0C: Craig Evans

Indeed, who would have thought 28 days ago with a cold and snowy spell stretched out in front of us that it would end it near or above average?

[Roger J Smith]

All very plucky.

[Snowly does it]

Temps seem to have peaked this afternoon at just a whisker short of 15c in many locations in the SE of England, 12-14c seems to be the Norm though to the South and South East but nearer 9/12c range in the South West and West Midlands, is London (14.5c) in the CET zone I wonder? If it is then the CET could jump quite a bit, Charlwood even warmer than London, highest temp I can find is 14.8c for Charlwood!

Today should add about 0.18 to the CET - it was 6.0 overnight and todays maxima have ranged from about 13.5 for Rothamsted to 12.5 for Pershore and nearer 9 or 10 for Stonyhurst - thats somewhere around 9 to 9.5

That takes the total to 4.26 in running rounded up to 4.3 - the finishing figure looks like 4.3 or 4.4 depending on roundings before any adjustment

Final figure - 4.1 to 4.4 I'd say

[snowray]

Indeed, who would have thought 28 days ago with a cold and snowy spell stretched out in front of us that it would end it near or above average?

Yes I'd even go for

:lol:

[ghrud]

I'm not an expert but the answer is the former.

At the end of the 6 o'clock news last night, Alex Deakin said February had been the coldest since 1996. In fact, 2003 and 2006 were colder. What are they checking against and why can't they get a simple fact such as this correct?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00hvwnv

I think I watched that and I'm not sure but I think he was refering to winter as a whole not just February.

[Thundery wintry showers]

This kind of turnaround doesn't just happen this way around.

Would anyone have imagined November 2005 falling close to or slightly below average (depending on location) after a first half that was almost as warm as that of November 1994? I don't think so!

[Summer of 95]

While it is true that the winter of 1990-91 saw a notable freezing spell in the first half of February which most people remember and is often quoted on here; what is almost never mentioned is the way that particular severe spell in Feb 1991 was followed by a lengthy very mild spell and March 1991 was an extremely mild month. After the very cold spell in Feb 1991 was over by the final third of February winter never returned. It really is pretty rare to have such a mild March after such a cold February as was the case in 1991.

Winter 1995-96 was much different though, that winter was cold overall with a cold March on top. Cold spells with snow and northerly / easterly spells were frequent during the 1995-96 winter and this also continued through most of March giving a month colder than a number of Januarys and Februarys in the 1990s and 2000s. So when you look at it this way, it was into the start of April before the cold 1995-96 winter really ended.

The winter of 1990-91 wasn't all it was cracked up to be in comparison to 1995-96 when you look at the very mild weather at the end of it, totally unlike 1996.

The Decembers of the 1960s were certainly cold overall, (the coldest December decade of the 1900s by a long way) whereas the Januarys and Februarys were not that particularly cold overall during that decade (1963 apart). It is also true that the winters of 1968-69 and 1969-70 (cold overall but not excessively so) had particularly cold Marches on top. The winter of 1968-69 was cold overall but had a mild January, which would have seemed a let down that year in preventing a particularly cold winter overall when the rest of the winter was great. It can also be pointed out that Jan - Feb 1969 saw one of the greatest collapses on record for the CET (beaten only by 1983 if I am correct?)

I'd say the 1995/6 winter didn't end till the end of May, and 2000/1 until early May (although it didn't start until Christmas). I think it's fair to say that 90/1 was the colder of the two if you take just the "winter months", but 95/6 wins out as far as the "winter season" is concerned.

Would anyone have imagined November 2005 falling close to or slightly below average (depending on location) after a first half that was almost as warm as that of November 1994? I don't think so!

February 2004 was another one I remember like that- incredibly mild start (17C in places in the first week) and a cold snowy end- don't think it quite made below average though.

Edited February 28, 2009 by Summer of 95

[Roger J Smith]

Speaking of months that warmed up fast in the second half, check out the daily mean CET for Jan 1893 ...

01 -2.2

02 -4.5

03 -3.2

04 -4.5

05 -5.0

06 -3.1

07 -0.9 (mean -3.3)

08 0.2

09 1.1

10 2.4

11 1.1

12 1.2

13 3.1

14 1.4

15 -1.0

16 0.3 (mean -0.8 )

17 2.2

18 3.7

19 4.6

20 4.2

21 4.0

22 5.7

23 7.0 (mean 0.8 )

24 8.1

25 6.1

26 5.0

27 3.5

28 3.9

29 6.9

30 7.9

31 8.9 (mean 2.2)

Quite a change in the regime there. :blush:

Edited February 28, 2009 by Roger J Smith

[West is Best]

4.5C please

Cold start, then mild but with at least one more cold snap in the mix.

In a sea of often poor predictions by me this one looks disappointingly like coming very close to reality. 4.4C or 4.5C might well be the finishing point after yet more mild mush in recent days.

[Roger J Smith]

I came very close to bailing out on my prediction several days into the month, which would have easily given me the lowest ever score in this thing, perhaps -70 or something with the penalty points. At one point I was trying to work out whether 1.0 with five days of penalty points would be better than 4.9 and no penalty points. So much for the GFS in FI, I seem to recall a whole week of super-cold weather that eventually ended up in Poland or some such place.

Hope it hits 20 today.

I came very close to bailing out on my prediction several days into the month, which would have easily given me the lowest ever score in this thing, perhaps -70 or something with the penalty points. At one point I was trying to work out whether 1.0 with five days of penalty points would be better than 4.9 and no penatly points. So much for the GFS in FI.

Hope it hits 20 today.

Edited February 28, 2009 by Roger J Smith

[Snowly does it]

4.24 rounded down to 4.2 to the 27th

Last nights minima averaged 5.9 so about 8.4 average maxima required to give the CET enough of a boost to round up to 4.4

4.4 looks very much nailed as the unadjusted figure, although we may see it held at 4.3

If adjustments follow the previous months, we are looking at 4.1 or 4.2 as the final figure

[snowray]

In a sea of often poor predictions by me this one looks disappointingly like coming very close to reality. 4.4C or 4.5C might well be the finishing point after yet more mild mush in recent days.

I was thinking a few days ago that this could end up with 3 winners at 4.5c, are we running just short of this now though? What are we up to today, cant seem to find todays figure anywhere?

[Snowly does it]

I was thinking a few days ago that this could end up with 3 winners at 4.5c, are we running just short of this now though? What are we up to today, cant seem to find todays figure anywhere?

4.2 to today (4.24 rounded down)

4.5 is just out of reach unless there is an upward adjustment, it would need a maxima average of about 13.9 today after minima of 5.9