Summer 2009

[Yeti]

My ideal summer is a nice warm and sunny May to start with, and dry up the ground. Then for June-August to be mainly average temps (18-23c) but sunny and generally clear (superb walking conditions) coupled with 2 heatwaves and thunderstorms at some point.

Problem is I give up on thunderstorms here. I have seen about 10, max., in 13 years of living here, and only 2 have been violent!

This is compensated though by the better winters.

[Bottesford]

I do like the summer - and do look forward to it in many ways. I just think I would enjoy it a lot more if the winter season provided more. Whatever I think about longer term trends, they have been very disappointing.

Yeah I get that - contrast is what makes nice things nicer! This winter felt much more 'real' with its snowfall and lengthy cold spells and definitely makes me long for the warmth of summer more. I just find winter drags on too long. I'd be happier with a 2 month autumn then down into a 2 month *real* bone chilling winter followed by a rapid warm up. The perpeptual drag of 3-6c days with next to no light for weeks & months is so draining after a while. Chocolate & deep fried food intake goes up as does boredom & Grand Theft Auto addiction! Roll on spring I'm ready for a change!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Chocolate & deep fried food intake goes up as does boredom & Grand Theft Auto addiction! Roll on spring I'm ready for a change!

Chocolate is an all year intake for me. In summer tends to be in the form of ice cream!

Too early to know what this years is going to be like. As much I hope for storms etc, some drier spells would be appreciated this year after the last two summers continual downpours.

This is because I have rented a local allotment patch and I want to get to work on that and growing my seasonal vegetables, herbs and fruit . So dry weather (lack of slugs pests etc) is important this year. Last year my garden was rife with the little b's

Edited February 19, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[summer blizzard]

Personally, i think that quite a dry May indicates a good summer.

As for my thoughts ahead, i just hope this high pressure spell does'nt leave us cyclonic by summertime.

[reef]

Personally, i think that quite a dry May indicates a good summer.

As for my thoughts ahead, i just hope this high pressure spell does'nt leave us cyclonic by summertime.

Theres no real correlation between May and the summer months, that goes for both temperature and rainfall.

May 1998: 32.8mm / Summer CET: 15.20C

May 2006: 100.9mm / Summer CET: 17.23C

May 2007: 107.1mm / Summer CET: 15.23C

Thats along the same lines as a warm, dry October gives a cold winter. i.e complete nonsense.

[tcc]

I think in Philip Edens last book about British disasters that there was a loose correlation to April and Summer? As in if April is dry then summer overall will be wet and vice versa? Doesn't always work as I think April 2003 was dry, however he mentions it's to do with the lengthening of the Rossby Waves from Spring into Summer mode?

Maybe someone else could confirm my thoughts!

[Evening thunder]

I think in Philip Edens last book about British disasters that there was a loose correlation to April and Summer? As in if April is dry then summer overall will be wet and vice versa? Doesn't always work as I think April 2003 was dry, however he mentions it's to do with the lengthening of the Rossby Waves from Spring into Summer mode?

Maybe someone else could confirm my thoughts!

There was of course the great summer of 2007..

another note the weather were enjoying now probably is our 'summer'!

[conor123]

Im hoping for a long spell of sustained warmth this summer, around 25-30c for 10 days in a row or more.

Certainly would love some big thunderstorms to but id prefer them in June/July with a warm, dry August for V Festival

[Alex95]

I want a decent July and August, with some heat in May or June. Wouldn't mind a washout in early summer as long as we got a decent heatwave in late July / August. I'm in France for the first half of August, so if we get a Spanish Plume I may well see it first! 6th/7th August last year were very stormy in Paris, the most spectacular storm I've ever seen in my life!

[Cric_lancster]

A wonderful dry summer for some top cricket on dry, spinning pitches would be nice. The way i believe it will pan out is it will be a 'better' summer than last year i.e. drier, but it will remain cool compared to recent years with temps hovering around average. A nice hot spell in august would do me nicely!

Edited March 17, 2009 by Cric_lancster

[morfius]

I'm hoping that we get very low rainfall totals from now until the end of summer so that any sunny weather will actually be hot (with the dry ground).

A nice hot April would be welcome with perhaps the chance of a 30C in London (although I doubt that seeing as the record is 26 I think).

To be honest i'd be happy if we had a 1030mb+ ridge of high pressure sitting over us for the next 6 months. I personally don't mind record breaking heat as it's certainly much nicer than a washout.

[Derp Patrol]

I would love to have a nice long, hot summer starting in late April with temps around 20C + and then into late May with a heatwave and then in summer sustained 25C+ temps, finishing off with one massive storm. Very unlikely though.

[damianslaw]

A more settled summer compared to the last two is all I'm hoping for and certainly not one where get all the best weather in May and June (admittedly sunshine and warmth in May and June is usually alot more pleasant and bearable than in July and August which usually deliver the humidity as well the one aspect of summer I can't stand)

August has been very dissapointing in recent years, it must do better!

[Thundery wintry showers]

One thing Philip Eden noted in one of his books, but which may well be a statistical "quirk", is the tendency for the famous hot and/or dry summers to be preceded by noteworthy spring hot spells- good recent examples being 1990, 1995 and 2003. I recall reading somewhere that May 1976 had a hot spell in the SE (although it was a grim month up north).

As for easterlies in summer, I would quite welcome them here in Exeter as they often bring warm sunshine and can import storms from the continent. However, it is worth noting that for eastern Scotland and north-east England, especially close to the coast, summertime easterlies are often a recipe for persistent cool overcast weather, as the wind picks up a fair amount of moisture over the North Sea and the stable airmass causes it to condense as low stratus.

A long high pressure dominated summer would bore me a bit, though still be preferable to the last two that we've just had. I broadly agree with Reef's summary of preferred summer weather- a combination of warm dry sunny spells, cooler showery spells and hot thundery outbreaks would suit me down to the ground, but I'd prefer to get rather less of the cool cloudy blandness that normally dominates in between occurrences of those weather types! Saying all that, there's little doubt that most of my favourite summer months in the UK have tended to have a lot of blocking to the east, giving sunny anticyclonic spells interspersed with thundery outbreaks from the west and south. I think having holidayed in France on several occasions I've developed a preference for their "continental"-style summers- even though it can sometimes get too hot at times.

Edited March 17, 2009 by Thundery wintry showers

[William of Walworth]

Well the equinox is on Friday so the approach of summer brings this summer fan back to this site after a long absence. I hibernate in the winter!

Does anyone else share my no doubt irrational fear of too much pleasant and sunny spring weather? This week has been gorgeous, awakening hopes of some lovely spells of HP dominated weather this summer, BUT what about the idea that too much nice weather in the spring risks 'using up our quota'? I know the 'quota theory' is made up paranoid nonsense scientifically speaking but!!

One thing I remember about our mostly dreadful summers in 2007 and 2008 was that they were preceded by long spells of very pleasant weather in the spring. Arousing false hopes for later!

So my preference this time would be that after the current HP spell, we get plenty of wet and indifferent weather in April and early May, then that we start to get some REALLY nice conditions building up from mid May or so onwards.

Glad to read that almost no-one in this thread is writing off the summer and that no-one is suggesting that an Atlantic/Jet Stream dominated summer is inevitable.

Might there not be some mileage in the idea that we're overdue an above average summer? There's nothing yet to say that there's no chance of one anyway. At the very least we have to settle for one conspicuously better than last year's .....

(Specialist PS : Oh yes, and can I please request that for the last two weeks of June we have a truly huge and immobile High Pressure area centred somewhere over Somerset? :lol: )

Edited March 19, 2009 by William of Walworth

[Solar Cycles]

Fantastic Summer! May, a warm and sunny month. June, cool and damp throughout. July, even cooler and wetter. August, forget it!! And with a continuing negative PDO, combined with low solar activity, don't expect any different! :lol:

[Thundery wintry showers]

I understand William of Walworth's fear, but again, taking some of the hottest, driest and sunniest summers of recent years, and looking at the springs that preceded them, we don't get any evidence of "using up quotas"- if anything there is a trend for the hottest sunniest summers to be preceded by hot sunny spells in spring, providing a taster of the summer to come.

Some examples:

1975- very cold spring, very sunny May in the NW, but dull throughout in the SE

1976- cool dull wet spring in the NW, but warm and sunny at times in the SE, with notable May heatwave in the SE

1983- very wet, rather cool spring

1984- cool cloudy March, exceptionally dry sunny April with warm days and cool nights, cool May with plenty of sunshine in the NW and cloud in the SE

1989- warm dry March, cool wet April, exceptionally warm dry sunny May

1990- one of the warmest, driest and sunniest springs on record, a few notable hot spells, variable April

1995- alternation between warm anticyclonic weather and northerly outbreaks, exceptional heatwave in early May, sunny except in N Ireland + N Scotland

2003- exceptionally warm (especially by day) and exceptionally sunny March and April, May warm and quite sunny in the SE but dull wet in the NW

If you want to turn it the other way and look at the sort of summers that follow warm dry sunny springs, not a lot of correlation. The summers of 1948 and 1982 were indifferent, but those of 1893, 1990 and 2003 generally warmer drier and sunnier than average.

[Timmead]

I'm not feeling very inspired by the CFS output at the moment (bearing in mind they are generally quite accurate):

Looks like below average temperature months will continue for some time yet.

[damianslaw]

Well the equinox is on Friday so the approach of summer brings this summer fan back to this site after a long absence. I hibernate in the winter!

Does anyone else share my no doubt irrational fear of too much pleasant and sunny spring weather? This week has been gorgeous, awakening hopes of some lovely spells of HP dominated weather this summer, BUT what about the idea that too much nice weather in the spring risks 'using up our quota'? I know the 'quota theory' is made up paranoid nonsense scientifically speaking but!!

One thing I remember about our mostly dreadful summers in 2007 and 2008 was that they were preceded by long spells of very pleasant weather in the spring. Arousing false hopes for later!

So my preference this time would be that after the current HP spell, we get plenty of wet and indifferent weather in April and early May, then that we start to get some REALLY nice conditions building up from mid May or so onwards.

Glad to read that almost no-one in this thread is writing off the summer and that no-one is suggesting that an Atlantic/Jet Stream dominated summer is inevitable.

Might there not be some mileage in the idea that we're overdue an above average summer? There's nothing yet to say that there's no chance of one anyway. At the very least we have to settle for one conspicuously better than last year's .....

(Specialist PS : Oh yes, and can I please request that for the last two weeks of June we have a truly huge and immobile High Pressure area centred somewhere over Somerset? )

Trouble is Spring is generally a much drier season than summer, April is often the driest month of the year.. so to get a dry summer is quite difficult, July and especially August can be notoriously wet.

All I want from this summer is a fairly dry one, not too dry to cause drought, but dry enough to be able to do outdoor things.. Personally I don't like things being too hot - in this case give me a high directly overhead then ridging NW from time to time allowing the atlantic in from time to time courtesy of polar maritime air and not the dreaded tropical maritime SW airstream - that I hate at anythime of year it normally means endless rain and low cloud and stuffy humidity - you don't see the hills for days in the lake district when that airstream kicks in!...

[Mark.C]

Three fine days and a thunderstorm,cant grumble at that.

[summer blizzard]

Could somebody tell me what the ten hottest summers on record are, i only know five off the top of my head??

[Bottesford]

Could somebody tell me what the ten hottest summers on record are, i only know five off the top of my head??

Here (circled badly by me!):

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Here's hoping for another thundery summer like 2007 (putting aside the widespread flooding aspect)

[Bottesford]

... and in contrast here's hoping for a decent summer to be outdoors in! July 2006 will do nicely - complete with thunder too!

[azores92]

Here's hoping for another thundery summer like 2007 (putting aside the widespread flooding aspect)

the second best summer looks like 1020 according to your chart there bottesford, im sure its meant to be 1920, but maybe they were making weather records back then!