Model Output Discussion

[NorthantsSnow]

Not a bad chart at all IMO at T102, just outside the reliable but could be an interesting night for some if it comes off as shown :happy:

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090227/18/102/h850t850eu.png

[J10]

The medium range though is very much on the mild side, so nothing at all like the ECM.

[Snowaddict]

The medium range though is very much on the mild side, so nothing at all like the ECM.

Indeed Jackone,

Although out to about T+180 and that high to the northeast is orientated in a much better manner than the previous run & a cold pool is being advected west, although not affecting the British Isles, on this run at least.

SA. :happy:

[snowmadchrisuk]

Temps slightly over done maybe ?

The upper's are only -5

[andy_leics22]

I'll take this for my Birthday :happy:

[PB22]

18z GFS far more feasible than the ECM IMO and this sort of outcome after the cool and unsettled spell is where I would put my money...although perhaps not quite as mild as what the 18z is showing by T+192:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1441.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1681.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.html

In fact after viewing the ECM ensembles I would more or less dismiss the 12z operational ECM and I'd expect it to revert to something more realistic in the morning. Have a good weekend all. :happy:

[dice48]

how do you translate of read http://www.wetterzentrale.de/

[Paul]

how do you translate of read http://www.wetterzentrale.de/

You don't need to - use the charts on here which are in English already, and many of them are higher res and centred on the UK!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

[Snowaddict]

You don't need to - use the charts on here which are in English already, and many of them are higher res and centred on the UK!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Hi Paul,

For some reason people just seem intent on posting Wetterzentrale charts, I really don't know why, maybe they seek to enhance their German ??

The Net Weather charts are far far clearer when trying to distinguish uppers and Dam lines and the dual chart viewer makes the viewing of changes most clear.

SA. :happy:

Edited February 27, 2009 by Snowaddict

[NorthantsSnow]

18z GFS far more feasible than the ECM IMO and this sort of outcome after the cool and unsettled spell is where I would put my money

How can EITHER of the options be any more feasible than the other with so much uncertainty? Quite frankly until the modelling of this storm is settled it's pure guesswork.

[Snowaddict]

how do you get this up?

Hi there.

Go to the netweather homepage.

Click the latest GFS charts tab option.

Then you will have an option to select 850mb temperatures, max temperatures etc. Click whatever option you wish and scroll through the run.

SA. :happy:

[Paul]

Hi Paul,

For some reason people just seem intent on posting Wetterzentrale charts, I really don't know why, maybe they seek to enhance their German ??

The Net Weather charts are far far clearer when trying to distinguish uppers and Dam lines.

SA. :happy:

Thanks, I agree, but I would say that!!

I think old habits die hard though, and wz was the original chart viewing site. Usage of our charts is growing all the time though, with over 30,000 an hour being viewed at times

How can EITHER of the options be any more feasible than the other with so much uncertainty? Quite frankly until the modelling of this storm is settled it's pure guesswork.

Well, the GFS is showing the more moderate option which is always going to be more feasible than the more severe option as extremes are by their nature rarer. Aside from that though, I agree - bags of uncertainty so none of the scenarios being shown by the various models should be ruled out at this point.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Hi Paul,

For some reason people just seem intent on posting Wetterzentrale charts, I really don't know why, maybe they seek to enhance their German ??

The Net Weather charts are far far clearer when trying to distinguish uppers and Dam lines and the dual chart viewer makes the viewing of changes most clear.

SA. :happy:

I use the netweather charts as well , it is just sometimes I like to see what is happening in the rest of europe as well and that is why I Sometimes use wetterzentrale charts and I assume that is why netweather links to them.

I think gfs has more chance of being right at the moment , but only because it has more support . But a new trend can be picked up at +144 or later at any time so anything could happen with the azores high at the moment .

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Finally some interesting weather coming our way!

Bit windy on Tuesday afternoon:

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090227/18/93/ukwind.png

Then a touch breezy for the western isles, western scotland etc.

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090227/18/120/ukwind.png

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090227/18/123/ukwind.png

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090227/18/126/ukwind.png

Widespread snow for for Tue night into Wed morning, although quite small.

http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090227/18/1...ctypeuktopo.png

Edited February 27, 2009 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[Cheese Rice]

Well at least the meto/bBC are sidding with ecm about next week prospects, latest forecast they said "Turning wet and colder and even cold enough for significant snow" intresting times ahead

[NorthantsSnow]

Well, the GFS is showing the more moderate option which is always going to be more feasible than the more severe option as extremes are by their nature rarer. Aside from that though, I agree - bags of uncertainty so none of the scenarios being shown by the various models should be ruled out at this point.

One could argue the GFS itself is fairly extreme the other way in introducing +5 uppers for much of central southern UK on the 7th March, even pockets of +6 air. Now on the 12z ensemble set not one member went this high on that particular day so the 18z operational could well be an outlier even for a short part of the run.

My bugbear Paul is really with this general assumption that if the models are conflicting, the milder option is automatically more likely. I am not a fan of this approach to model watching as every thing that gets shown on the models is a possibility else it wouldn't be flagged up in the first place, so it's all worthy of consideration.

And beyond +168, I am uncomfortable with the idea of ruling any scenario out, especially as you say when there are so many possible options.

Edited February 27, 2009 by NorthantsSnow

[johnholmes]

My bugbear Paul is really with this general assumption that if the models are conflicting, the milder option is automatically more likely. I am not a fan of this approach to model watching as every thing that gets shown on the models is a possibility else it wouldn't be flagged up in the first place, so it's all worthy of consideration.

And beyond +168, I am uncomfortable with the idea of ruling any scenario out, especially as you say when there are so many possible options.

I would agree with the above.

Nothing should be ruled out and its a case of watching the models to see what the general trend is at those time scales certainly not, as some, not yourself, look at surface specifics, which is a waste of time on 90% of occasions. Look for trends, check the ensembles, look at factors outside the usual model watching, AO and NAO predictions. Again these are wrong at times just as other models are, look at the 500mb charts, anomalies etc, slowly build a picture up of the most likely pattern. Even then it can still be wrong at times but its less likely than watching whichever model appears to suggest the weather you favour. Be that mild or cold, wet or dry.

Edited February 27, 2009 by johnholmes

[Paul]

it's all worthy of consideration.

Absolutely, every weather scenario needs assessing on it's own merits. Cold/mild/wet/dry bias is something that can often come up on forum threads as many people have their preferences, but it's often the balanced approach which bears more fruit.

[azores92]

18z GFS far more feasible than the ECM IMO and this sort of outcome after the cool and unsettled spell is where I would put my money...although perhaps not quite as mild as what the 18z is showing by T+192:

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1201.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1441.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1681.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1921.html

In fact after viewing the ECM ensembles I would more or less dismiss the 12z operational ECM and I'd expect it to revert to something more realistic in the morning. Have a good weekend all. :happy:

and to yourself paul. i agree to an extent really, and the fact is gfs doesnt want to budge from its opinion. besides, i think its time for spring warmth to show its hand, and not faux spring cold.

[NorthantsSnow]

One could argue the GFS itself is fairly extreme the other way in introducing +5 uppers for much of central southern UK on the 7th March, even pockets of +6 air. Now on the 12z ensemble set not one member went this high on that particular day so the 18z operational could well be an outlier even for a short part of the run.

Just to add, as I predicted the 18z op was a brief mild outlier for one day on the 7th:

http://gens.netweather.tv/ens.20090227/18/...amptonshire.png

Less of an outlier really the further south and west you go though, taking Devon for example:

http://gens.netweather.tv/ens.20090227/18/t850Devon.png

7th March looks to be a key date. The ensembles are fairly tightly packed up until this date but then the spread really gets going.

[Yeti]

Thanks, I agree, but I would say that!!

I think old habits die hard though, and wz was the original chart viewing site. Usage of our charts is growing all the time though, with over 30,000 an hour being viewed at times :happy:

Hi Paul, just for a bit of feedback-

I tend to use the WZ charts except for the UK charts (e.g. precip). This is mainly because of habit and also because for some reason I think they're a bit easier to use. I prefer the way the 6z is still there when the 12z is coming out for example (even though I know you can view the two together on NW, but it's a bit of a faff!) However I speak fairly fluent German fortunately so language isn't really a barrier, although I appreciate it can be

[andy_leics22]

Hi Paul, just for a bit of feedback-

I tend to use the WZ charts except for the UK charts (e.g. precip). This is mainly because of habit and also because for some reason I think they're a bit easier to use. I prefer the way the 6z is still there when the 12z is coming out for example (even though I know you can view the two together on NW, but it's a bit of a faff!) However I speak fairly fluent German fortunately so language isn't really a barrier, although I appreciate it can be

Ditto, I have been using the WZ charts since Dec 2004 and just become very used to them. The colours are different on the N-W charts with the upper air temps and I prefer the WZ ones. No doubt i'll get a telling off from Paul for that :blush: I do use the N-W charts but only for short term forecasting and precip positions. When i'm looking between T36+ I tend to look at the WZ ones.

Just on a side note... I posted a chart about 20 minutes ago saying that it looked decent for my Birthday, well the interesting thing is... For the past few years it has been pretty snowy or cold around my Birthday. When I turned 18 it snowed overnight and when I woke up there was snow on the ground in the morning. I think last year it snowed on the 5th aswell or defanitly around the 5th. I think it might have snowed when I turned 17 aswell, can't really remember though. It looks like it could be another potentially snowy Birthday again this year! I wouldn't usually have expected snow to fall so often around the start of March in the Midlands but the last few years have delivered.

[Yeti]

Ditto, I have been using the WZ charts since Dec 2004 and just become very used to them. The colours are different on the N-W charts with the upper air temps and I prefer the WZ ones. No doubt i'll get a telling off from Paul for that I do use the N-W charts but only for short term forecasting and precip positions. When i'm looking between T36+ I tend to look at the WZ ones.

Just on a side note... I posted a chart about 20 minutes ago saying that it looked decent for my Birthday, well the interesting thing is... For the past few years it has been pretty snowy or cold around my Birthday. When I turned 18 it snowed overnight and when I woke up there was snow on the ground in the morning. I think last year it snowed on the 5th aswell or defanitly around the 5th. I think it might have snowed when I turned 17 aswell, can't really remember though. It looks like it could be another potentially snowy Birthday again this year! I wouldn't usually have expected snow to fall so often around the start of March in the Midlands but the last few years have delivered.

:blush:

It's going to snow on Andy's birthday everyone!

The day I was born (9th December 1990) was the great Midlands/Yorkshire blizzard:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00119901209.gif

Although I must say for my 18th although there was snow on the ground I don't remember anything about the day after

[andy_leics22]

:blush:

It's going to snow on Andy's birthday everyone!

The day I was born (9th December 1990) was the great Midlands/Yorkshire blizzard:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00119901209.gif

Although I must say for my 18th although there was snow on the ground I don't remember anything about the day after

LOL, wow that chart for your Birthday was awesome! The day I was born my mum said there was a hard frost on the ground when she went in the ambulance to the hospital in the early hours. Maybe that's why i'm so mad on frost and snow and true for you too lol.

[Shirelord]

LOL, wow that chart for your Birthday was awesome! The day I was born my mum said there was a hard frost on the ground when she went in the ambulance to the hospital in the early hours. Maybe that's why i'm so mad on frost and snow :blush: and true for you too lol.

Mine was quite interesting for October! Bit of an 'if only it were July' chart really:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00119851014.gif

Back on the models, certainly interesting sounds from ECM FI:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.gif

Though I doubt the potency of any cold pool and the track of the flow would not doubt vary, probably for the milder, before we even think about shortwaves.

I think a fairy decent chance we're done, cold rain looks a good shout for the large part of March IMO, windy at times.

Edited February 28, 2009 by Shirelord