Are We In For A Hot Summer?

[Noctilucid]

I'd love the whole of summer to be like a short spell we had at the end of May (I think!) last year, where daytime temperatures were warm but we had a feed of extremely clean and dry air (from Scandi way I beleive), I can't remember ever seeing such crystal clear deep blue skies, no awful haze or humidity at all, and a refreshing cool breeze, wonderful!

Shame it didn't last longer, if I remember correctly the Atlantic then awoke big time (mind you I don't mind a good atlantic blast now and then, Spring has been lacking of them this year!).

Edited April 13, 2009 by jshaw

[butler_son]

Both June of 2005 and 2006 were hot...In 2005 though it was the 2nd half that saw most of the heat (it was the warmest 2nd half of June since 1976) where as the first half was on the coolish side.

June 2006 here in the south was very hot pretty much throughout from my memory. May was a pretty grotty month but a big high pressure arrived on the 1st and stayed until about the 12th with day time temps regularly exceeding 25 and sometimes getting beyond 30. The period 12th-25th was then cooler with a storm arriving on the night of the 20th-21st but still some days would have reached 25. The month then ended with another hot spell where I would think most days reached 25 and some maybe 30.

Your memories seem to tally with mine then! I just can't remember much cloud, let alone rain, but I swear it was hotter than the records that J07 (thanks btw) seemed to produce. I dunno, we're further south than Boscombe Down, and I don't know whether that helped. It may have been more May time than June, however. I'm pretty sure it wasn't 2005 (my GCSE year) though. Memories get hazy...maybe I should keep a diary this summer!

June 2006 had a north-south split. The south was warm, dry and sunny for most of the month and it was locally the sunniest since 1975. However, I remember that in Leeds there was a very continental-style first 12 days, with consistent warm sunshine and occasional showers, and severe thunderstorms broke out on the 12th, and then the rest of the month was mainly dry and cloudy with westerly winds. Many other northern areas had a similar progression, and thus sunshine was only a little above normal.

In July 2006, the pattern of the 1st-12th June (frequent high pressure and southerly winds) persisted for most of the month, and in Leeds it was like spending a month in central continental Europe. Mean maximum temperature was 5C above normal and sunshine about 60% above, and there were also occasional showers and thunderstorms.

Strangely, I found the hot spells of June and July 2006 far more bearable than the less extreme heat at the end of July 2008- and I was living in the middle of a fairly large city (Leeds) in Summer 2006. Humidity and warm nights were probably the main factors in making the July 2008 heatwave unpleasant.

Second half June 2005 was remarkable in both Lancaster and Cleadon (where I spent roughly half-and-half of the period)- again, frequent hot sunshine and occasional thundery outbreaks, the storms of the 19th in Cleadon were particularly unusual in intensity for the North East.

You're probably right about the north-south split in that year. Again, makes me wish I kept a definite record of it all...

[J07]

Your memories seem to tally with mine then! I just can't remember much cloud, let alone rain, but I swear it was hotter than the records that J07 (thanks btw) seemed to produce. I dunno, we're further south than Boscombe Down, and I don't know whether that helped. It may have been more May time than June, however. I'm pretty sure it wasn't 2005 (my GCSE year) though. Memories get hazy...maybe I should keep a diary this summer!

But even looking at a classic warm spot like Heathrow, you still get 19 days in June 2006 that did not reach 25C, and only one day that hit 30C. May 2006 was even cooler.

No matter where you look, all the records are a long, long way from "most days being over 30C and none below 25C".

It would be very hard to find any month in UK history where a station has recorded at least 15 days of 30C+ maxima, and no days with sub 25C maxima. Possibly 1976 or 1995? July 2006 did not seem to pull it off, and neither did August 2003.

The only way to really get such figures in these months would be to have a thermometer in the sun or in some place corrupted by the heat of a nearby building/decking/wall.

Anyway, my point being that we have poor memories of weather when it comes to specifics. Myself included, as I also thought June 2006 was hotter than the statistics suggest.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Last year we hardly got any warm and settled weather here, apart from the end of July and sometime in August where it only just touched 30 for a day or two, and then it was only about 25-28C for about 10 days and then back to cloudy skies and rain :unsure:

I remember that in August 2008 the masses on here were pining for a "warm settled spell" and thinking that sunshine amounts didn't matter (or were assumed as givens if it was anticyclonic) as long as it was warm and dry. Some serious eggs on faces resulted in the last week when we had a week or so of warm settled weather. Unfortunately the anticyclonic gloom was so widespread that it ended up even duller than the unsettled weather of the preceding three weeks had been. And sure enough, many members of N-W complained.

But bear in mind, that spell of anticyclonic gloom at the end of August would indeed come under the heading "warm settled spell"...

That said, I can't remember any other summer anticyclonic spell where anticyclonic gloom was so widespread- usually it's just the windward coasts (e.g. the east coast in the warm settled spell in early June 2007).

[Summer of 95]

I remember that in August 2008 the masses on here were pining for a "warm settled spell" and thinking that sunshine amounts didn't matter (or were assumed as givens if it was anticyclonic) as long as it was warm and dry. Some serious eggs on faces resulted in the last week when we had a week or so of warm settled weather. Unfortunately the anticyclonic gloom was so widespread that it ended up even duller than the unsettled weather of the preceding three weeks had been. And sure enough, many members of N-W complained.

But bear in mind, that spell of anticyclonic gloom at the end of August would indeed come under the heading "warm settled spell"...

That said, I can't remember any other summer anticyclonic spell where anticyclonic gloom was so widespread- usually it's just the windward coasts (e.g. the east coast in the warm settled spell in early June 2007).

Last 2/3rds of August 2003 were warm, dry and predominantly cloudy as I remember. The sunshine didn't return till mid-September. That said, I can't remember a week like that last week of Aug 2008- all the conditions seemed right for a hot sunny spell (with perhaps a bit of morning mist near the coast) yet the cloud still wouldn't budge- it really was like January anticyclonic gloom with the temperature turned up 15-20 degrees. Another month worth mentioning is May 1991- it was anticyclonic and very dry with it, yet dull almost throughout.

About the hot months: we were definitely on the north side of the divide (yet again I think it was more of a SE vs everywhere else one); the first half was a stunner; sunny, dry and hot with a couple of days nudging 30. It was badly spoilt by a cool, dull spell 17th-26th before it started warming up again right at the end.

I don't think a month with "most days over 30 and none below 25" is possible even in the SE; a more realistic expectation for most of us is "most days over 25 and none below 20" which I think is just about possible in parts of Britain; at Shawbury which is far from the hottest place in the country :lol: there was no max below 20C between July 17 and Aug 27 in 1995, with 27 days in that period topping 25. July and August only had 7 sub-20C maxes between them.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, I forgot about the last two-thirds of August 2003. I recall that in Cleadon the middle third of the week had some decent sunny intervals, but I definitely remember a week of anticyclonic gloom after that (around 21st-27th I think). The area around Shrewsbury fared particularly badly with anticyclonic gloom in August 2003- according to Met Office maps it was practically the only area of the country not to record above average sunshine for the month.

I wasn't recording weather in May 1991 but statistically it appears to have been one of the driest and dullest Mays on record- it must have been quite a month for anticyclonic gloom!

Incidentally, in Cleadon (where the average summer max is only 19C) there were 16 consecutive days in August 1995 with no maximum below 21C, and July 2006 (15 consecutive days) ran it close.

[reef]

July 2006 is probably the best we can expect in this country and I imagine that will be the same for the foreseeable future.

Here, it exceeded 25C on 18 days of the month (14 consecutively) and failed to reach 20C only once. The minima was above 15C on 12 days and fell below 10C just twice. The month had rain on just 8 days and from thunderstorms on 4 of those. At the same time the month was perfect for me as the temperature never reached 30C, so it was never too hot.

Summer 2003 on the other hand only exceeded 25C on 12 days during the entire season, reaching 30.9C as a max on that one day in August. Summer 1995 was much better, with 23 days in the season, but was let down by a distinctly rubbish 13.3C (-1.0C) June which had only 6 days that topped 20C!

Some Stats for this location:

Days Above 25C (Summer / Extended Season):

2006: 24 / 26

1995: 23 / 23

2003: 12 / 16

Days Above 20C (Summer / Extended Season):

2006: 74 / 99

2003: 68 / 88

1995: 52 / 65

Summer Mean Temp (Max Temp):

2006: 17.8C (29.9C)

2003: 17.3C (30.9C)

1995: 16.4C (30.3C)

So Summer 2006 was the best here temperature-wise hands down, though 1995 and 2003 were probably drier.

[William of Walworth]

Summer 1995 was much better, with 23 days in the season, but was let down by a distinctly rubbish 13.3C (-1.0C) June which had only 6 days that topped 20C!

Those 6 were mainly concentrated in the last week of June though, making 1995 a truly excellent year as I recall for us 'festival weather specialists' ...... :lol:

Forgive me if the link to the BBC's coverage of the Met Office long term forecast, and the forecast itrself, is being covered in other threads ... I'm not on this forum all that often ...

ETA : Direct link to Met Office's long term forecast (updated today, 30th April).

But worth linking here too I spose, for discussion/contradiction!

Netweather's own long term forecast elsewhere on this site, also looks fairly encouraging ...

Edited April 30, 2009 by William of Walworth

[Bottesford]

oooo I do like the look of that forecast! They're usually quite good so fingers crossed as that looks like a hot & thundery one without the Atlantic train ruining things all the time.

[ribster]

oooo I do like the look of that forecast! They're usually quite good so fingers crossed as that looks like a hot & thundery one without the Atlantic train ruining things all the time.

I wouldn't bank on it, I reckon on a hot June, followed by a torrential July and August.

[Bottesford]

I wouldn't bank on it, I reckon on a hot June, followed by a torrential July and August.

Certainly not banking on it at all (this is the UK after all!) but what information do you base your findings on?

[Yeti]

Certainly not banking on it at all (this is the UK after all!) but what information do you base your findings on?

I know it's promising, isn't it!

I have 4 and a half months' summer holiday this year so I am definitely hoping for a good summer! Lots of bbqs, garden parties, cold wheat beer and those nice, warm nights where you can be comfortable in a T shirt the whole time...

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

oooo I do like the look of that forecast! They're usually quite good so fingers crossed as that looks like a hot & thundery one without the Atlantic train ruining things all the time.

I immediately thought of you when I saw the headline

Although the autumn and winter forecasts were not accurate, I do now think that despite recent reservations I have had about how the summer may pan out, this particular forecast will verify. I have been thinking that a warm dry Spring would lead to an unsettled summer but now I think this is less likely.

Although I am not a fan of unrelenting heat, I did fear a 1988 style summer with an active jet stream (relative to summer) and trains of depressions crossing the uk and an Azores ridge through central France. So although I prefer a more comfortable pleasantly warm easterly based summer with high pressure further north, and thundery lows over the nearby continent, the current prediction is one I will certainly settle for over non stop atlantic south westerlies.

To compensate for too much warmth potentially, it does mean a trade-off of a good chance of storms if we can engage slow moving cold fronts with high pressure to the east.

[Nick L]

Hot summer? Bah humbug

[Devon-Nelly]

Well im hoping we might actually reach 25c this year as we failed last year. But i think we're in for a warm one this year as my sig has suggested for months now lol, but i thought it was abit bold for the met to say they think El Nino would be the cause.

I remember June 2006 very well, lounging around outside sixth form in the sunshine, though it wasn't a completely warm sunny month it went abit iffy around the 13th-15th and then again in the last week for a couple of days. The highest temp we had was 25c on the 12th after one hell of a thunderstorm in the early hours and it was cloudy that day. June 2003 was pretty much on par with June 2006 here.

The early August heatwave i'll never forget with 5 days of 30c and above peaking at 33c, i've never witnessed such hot weather in the uk. I was in Greece during the middle two weeks in July 2006 so i don't know how that fared but i don't think it surpassed 30/1c from what my relatives said.

[Snowyowl9]

Theres no doubt that 2006 as being the hottest maximum,but it was the driest of this decade,have to go back to 1995 for a much dryer one overall.

As for this summer the odds are on for a more HP dominated and less atlantic influence, after the last 2 shockers, aswell as la nina has died away.

Edited April 30, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[reef]

Last year's forecast:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20070530.html

The latest seasonal forecast from the Met Office, updated today, still indicates that this summer is likely to be warmer than average.

Following the trend set throughout 2006 and the first part of 2007, seasonal forecasters say there is a high probability that summer temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 °C.

Current rainfall indications suggest that over the summer as a whole southern parts of the UK are more likely to experience average or below-average rainfall, while the north is more likely to see average or above-average rainfall.

Trevor Bishop, Head of Water Resources Management at the Environment Agency said: "Although water resources are generally in a healthy position, there's still no room for complacency. As summer approaches we shouldn't forget about saving water. An extended period of hot dry weather could start to put water supplies and the environment under pressure."

The Met Office works with the Environment Agency for England and Wales to review the water situation as we head into the summer. As well as water resource planning, the Met Office seasonal forecast is used in a wide range of sectors including the energy and financial markets.

So Id take any forecast for another warm one with a lorry-load of salt.

[SP1986]

So Id take any forecast for another warm one with a lorry-load of salt.

Precisely, in fact I'd call the salt depot in!

I do genuinely think the north is going to plagued by a wet, cool summer, with perhaps the south getting much more luck. I do think though that the Northern half of the country are going to be very disappointed indeed.

[Iceni]

"Oak before Ash" this year (the opposite from last year and the year before) so a dry summer. It's been an extraordinary dry spring too, only a day's rain for the last 3 weeks.

[Marcus_surfer]

I expect quite a few days of 30C and above here this year, but also very wet weather too, so a normal summer hopefully. Last year we only hit 26C for one day and May was very pleasant

Edited May 1, 2009 by Marcus_surfer

[Coast]

Yes!!!! :lol:

www.independent.co.uk/news

After two summers of sodden misery, Britain can look forward to a hot dry summer this year, the Met Office said yesterday in an unusually confident long-range forecast.

Edited May 1, 2009 by Coast

[GRHinPorts]

Yes!!!!

www.independent.co.uk/news

After two summers of sodden misery, Britain can look forward to a hot dry summer this year, the Met Office said yesterday in an unusually confident long-range forecast.

LOL...You have to wonder why the Met Office bother. They must know the British media will spin this out of all proportion. Now if we don't get another 1976/1995 replica you can imagine how this will be viewed come September :lol:

My only tentative prediction is that one of July/August will deliver a +17 CET.

Of course so did August 2004 and that was a very wet month too

Edited May 1, 2009 by GRHinPorts

[ribster]

Certainly not banking on it at all (this is the UK after all!) but what information do you base your findings on?

I said to myself I wonder how long it will be before someone pipes up with evidence? Wheres your white paper on this etc etc. It's just an opinion.

Last year's forecast:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20070530.html

The latest seasonal forecast from the Met Office, updated today, still indicates that this summer is likely to be warmer than average.

Following the trend set throughout 2006 and the first part of 2007, seasonal forecasters say there is a high probability that summer temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 °C.

Current rainfall indications suggest that over the summer as a whole southern parts of the UK are more likely to experience average or below-average rainfall, while the north is more likely to see average or above-average rainfall.

So Id take any forecast for another warm one with a lorry-load of salt.

Priceless, enough said.

[Nick L]

I thought last year was indeed slightly above average?

[Harry]

Last year may be have been slightly above average, with regards temperatures and rainfall (actually, rainfall probably more than 'just above average')

However I've always lived in the south-east, and if my memory serves me correctly, without fail we'd have a least half a dozen decent heatwaves where temperatures would hit 30C+ for at least a few days before storms moved in.

The years 2003 (38.5C max) and 2006 (28C - 36C max over 3 weeks uninterrupted) however have left people expecting more, hence the massive perceived negativity of the last two summers.

In 2007, I think we hit 30C on ONE day, and 2008 about the same. Therefore, if we have just one week of 30C+ temperatures with no rain, the MetO will be seen as being right on the money - safe bet for them IMO!

Edited May 1, 2009 by Harry