Model Outlook For Chase Team 1

[dogs32]

well this it! the big moment is around the corner...

Might as well stay up a bit longer and wait for the charts to update

Might see more of a Armageddon

[Tom Lynch]

That coming from a seasoned chaser like yourself Tom, I must admit is making me 10 times more excited, regardless of tiredness.!

Yeah Pat. Will be at airport for 12:00 i Cork. Still have about 2 hours packing and prep to do. cant wait though

On my first night last year I was treat to two flashes of lightning and 5 + days of glorious sunshine. I did report the odd cloud or two , when I saw one. So to see the possibilities of some chases from day one excites me. ATM it doesnt look like we will have to travel too far either. The proof of the pudding will be in the heating

Tom

[Blackie]

Good luck guys. Will be following your reports and thinking back to last year. Hope you have more luck than we did on Chase 1, but it was still great fun and we had some superb weather to watch and photograph.

Cheers

Peter

PS - Paul, I see you are still up and not tucked up in bed. The Times put the adventure supplement back again, so I don't know if it is coming out tomorrow now or whenever. It will be a Satuday when it does and it will include the storm chase story I wrote. The Echo editor never did return my emails, so it's their loss. Shame, but I might try him one last time on Monday and let him know you are back out there. Good luck again.

Edited April 24, 2009 by Blackie

[dogs32]

yes watched Bristol's video's countless times of the lack of action..but still looked good fun with lovely scenery...

though I think you saw some fantstic lightning at night on one of his videos

charts are now on the update

no.99

Edited April 24, 2009 by dogs32

[Blackie]

Not sure if this was posted on the site, but the article I wrote about last year's chase with Michael Fish in the March/April issue of The Travel & Leisure Magazine can now be seen online. Just click on this link: http://www.digital.tlmags.com/index.aspx?issue=issue08, then click on where it says Cut to the Chase on the front page.

It is on page 43 in case the direct link doesn't work. Brings it all back...

Cheers

Peter

Edited April 24, 2009 by Blackie

[Tom Lynch]

On my first night last year I was treat to two flashes of lightning and 5 + days of glorious sunshine. I did report the odd cloud or two , when I saw one. So to see the possibilities of some chases from day one excites me. ATM it doesnt look like we will have to travel too far either. The proof of the pudding will be in the heating

Tom

I like what I see

http://nomad3.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_...00&op2=none

Tom

[Paul Sherman]

Thanks for the Info Peter, Thought I had Missed the Times Article. If it does come out whilst I am away any chance of dropping one around my House ?? Or letting me know and I can tell Louise to get one for that Weekend!

Not been around much tonight as helping blow up balloons and wrap my Little uns presents as it is her 7th Birthday tomorrow!!

Last minute packing and checking everything as well but will catch the 11pm Charts to see how hot it will be upon Landing on Sunday

Paul S

Edit :- Looking like it will be around 29c at 3pm and down to around 27c at 6pm and 25c at 9pm.

[Blackie]

Thanks for the Info Peter, Thought I had Missed the Times Article. If it does come out whilst I am away any chance of dropping one around my House ?? Or letting me know and I can tell Louise to get one for that Weekend!

Not been around much tonight as helping blow up balloons and wrap my Little uns presents as it is her 7th Birthday tomorrow!!

Last minute packing and checking everything as well but will catch the 11pm Charts to see how hot it will be upon Landing on Sunday

Paul S

No problem, Paul. If it comes out in the next couple of weeks I will drop a copy off at your place. After that and I will be away myself, in Miami, so will get someone else to get some copies and will save one for you.

Looks like you may have excitement from day one, which will be great.

Peter

[Tom Lynch]

Thanks for the Info Peter, Thought I had Missed the Times Article. If it does come out whilst I am away any chance of dropping one around my House ?? Or letting me know and I can tell Louise to get one for that Weekend!

Not been around much tonight as helping blow up balloons and wrap my Little uns presents as it is her 7th Birthday tomorrow!!

Last minute packing and checking everything as well but will catch the 11pm Charts to see how hot it will be upon Landing on Sunday

Paul S

Edit :- Looking like it will be around 29c at 3pm and down to around 27c at 6pm and 25c at 9pm.

Paul my train arrives in Euston at 12.12 which i think is a little early for Ian so I might come straight to your place. I need to catch Ian.

Tom

[John Hanrahan]

Not sure if this was posted on the site, but the article I wrote about last year's chase with Michael Fish in the March/April issue of The Travel & Leisure Magazine can now be seen online. Just click on this link: http://www.digital.tlmags.com/index.aspx?issue=issue08, then click on where it says Cut to the Chase on the front page.

It is on page 43 in case the direct link doesn't work. Brings it all back...

Cheers

Peter

Thanks for that Peter, I missed that last too. Good read

[Paul Sherman]

Yeah Just looked at the Charts Up to Thursday and They are Insane!!

Big Ol MCS Rattling through DFW Sunday Evening for Starters!

Cape about 100 Miles West of DFW On Sunday at 3,000jkg

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday all Dryline Chases in the Texas Panhandle.

Now that IS Chasing Heaven! Flat as a Pancake and Discrete Supercell Storms, Just Sit about 10-20 Miles to the East of the Dryline and watch it go..............................BOOOOOOM!

Paul S

Paul my train arrives in Euston at 12.12 which i think is a little early for Ian so I might come straight to your place. I need to catch Ian.

Tom

Yeah he should be around tonight, If not I can Text Him

[dogs32]

i love the CAPE

[Tom Lynch]

Yeah Just looked at the Charts Up to Thursday and They are Insane!!

Big Ol MCS Rattling through DFW Sunday Evening for Starters!

Cape about 100 Miles West of DFW On Sunday at 3,000jkg

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday all Dryline Chases in the Texas Panhandle.

Now that IS Chasing Heaven! Flat as a Pancake and Discrete Supercell Storms, Just Sit about 10-20 Miles to the East of the Dryline and watch it go..............................BOOOOOOM!

Paul S

Yeah he should be around tonight, If not I can Text Him

Paul

I love the Texas Panhandle , as you say nice and flat.

Tom

[Paul Sherman]

I tell you what there are Some Sick Charts being thrown Up by the GFS at the moment.

Wednesday looks Evil - 5,000jkg Cape and Some Charts towards the next Weekend are looking like Tornado Outbreak at the Moment.

Of course we have been here before so expect lots of changes but the GFS Nailed Greensburg on the 26th April in 2007 - I have the Charts to Prove It as well saved for Posperity!

Paul S

[Blackie]

Thanks for that Peter, I missed that last too. Good read

Glad you liked it, John. Hope you liked the photos, too - my memories of last year include me photographing everything in sight and you videoing anything that moved!

Enjoy this year's chase

Peter

[dogs32]

so Paul some of these charts are looking very nasty conditions...

well I wonted to see natures fury looks like I just might...Tornado outbreak wow...What a year to pick my first chase ...looks like it might pick up again after it dies down just after tour 2starts if Im correct.Though a long way off

Edited April 24, 2009 by dogs32

[Tom Lynch]

so Paul some of these charts are looking very nasty conditions...

well I wonted to see natures fury looks like I just might...Tornado outbreak wow...What a year to pick my first chase ...looks like it might pick up again after it dies down just after tour 2starts if Im correct.Though a long way off

How lucky is that? A good chance of seeing a tornado on your first chase, but at very least some exciting chases are on the cards.

Tom

[dogs32]

How lucky is that? A good chance of seeing a tornado on your first chase, but at very least some exciting chases are on the cards.

Tom

lol..yes i know Tom mate...im chuffed to bits mate...these charts over the last few days have had me on the edge of my seat...i said to Paul today i feel truly blessed...

cant wait now Tom to see some proper clouds and lightning...

Edited April 24, 2009 by dogs32

[Tom Lynch]

lol..yes i know Tom mate...im chuffed to bits mate...these charts over the last few days have had me on the edge of my seat...i said to Paul today i feel truly blessed...

cant wait now Tom to see some proper clouds and lightning...

Jet stream

http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/namjetstream_model_fcst.html

Tom

[dogs32]

its got to be a Tornado chasers dream to keep getting these troughs and high CAPE values...

many days chasing...ahead...probably need a holiday after this through being exhausted

hope we dont get stuck on a dirt road like your dvd Tom....with a Twister on its way

Edited April 24, 2009 by dogs32

[Tom Lynch]

its got to be a Tornado chasers dream to keep getting these troughs and high CAPE values...

many days chasing...ahead...probably need a holiday after this through being exhausted :lol:

hope we dont get stuck on a dirt road like your dvd Tom....with a Twister on its way

Not the first time and it wont be the last. Dirt roads are there to fustrate. However sometimes they are the only way of following the action. The only upsetting thing about the day in our dvd was seeing a German chase team fly past and seeing the Outlaw chaser pass by.

Tom

[dogs32]

its going to a Moderate Risk in the Pan Handle today....looks like we are not going to have nice sunny weather for a holiday.. :lol: :lol:

The start of things to come

oh well :lol: im sure the weather will improve :lol:

6 hrs to D day

Edited April 25, 2009 by dogs32

[Paul Sherman]

CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STG TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY JUST

AFTER DARK WHEN LLJ STRENGTHENS APPRECIABLY...YET SUFFICIENTLY RICH

THETAE REMAINS TO KEEP EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS ROOTED AT SFC.

PATTERN RESEMBLES THAT WHICH HAS YIELDED REGIME OF ONE OR TWO

SIGNIFICANT/NOCTURNAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS HISTORICALLY. LLJ-RELATED

BOOST IN HODOGRAPH SIZE MAY LEAD TO 300-500 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH BY

ABOUT 26/03Z. MAIN UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS IN COVERAGE/NUMBER OF STORMS

AND RESULTING INFLUENCE ON STRUCTURE OF SUPERCELLS...WHICH MAY TEND

TOWARD HEAVY-PRECIP CHARACTER AFTER DARK. THEREFORE WILL WAIT FOR

ADDITIONAL INDICATIONS TO INTRODUCE AOA 10-PERCENT

SIGNIFICANT-TORNADO PROBABILITIES.

As I said the other day looks like a Back to Back Moderate Risk on the cards, Could be a Potentially Dangerous Situation Out there and One we wont be able to Follow as it will be 03z Here and we have to be Up at 6am tomorrow Morning for the Flight.

Paul S

[John Hanrahan]

Glad you liked it, John. Hope you liked the photos, too - my memories of last year include me photographing everything in sight and you videoing anything that moved!

Enjoy this year's chase

Peter

Loved the pics Peter thanks. Love the reflection in the car hehe. I dont think your comment is fair though. I took video of stuff that didnt move also.

[Paul Sherman]

A look at our 1st Chase Day Proper on Monday 27th April which at this Stage looks likely to be finding Storms in NW Texas from Outflow Boundaries. Not A great Potential For Tornadoes at this Stage but should get some Supercells for the Team and A nice way to Start the Chase

As we then Move onto Tuesday a Much Bigger Risk for Tornadoes and SPC Already have this as a Day 4 Severe and NOT Slight Risk in the Text Box at the Moment

Then almost a Repeat for Wednesday with W Kansas and OK Panhandle Dryline Action in the best possible Chase Terrain.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0415 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2009

VALID 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOW UPPER PATTERN

EVOLVES...AT LEAST THROUGH DAY 5. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL

ROTATE THROUGH LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES. BEYOND DAY 5

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AND HAVE NOT SHOWN RUN TO RUN

CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.

DAY 4...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ACCELERATE NWWD THROUGH THE SRN HIGH

PLAINS EAST OF LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF E-W ORIENTED FRONT

THAT WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NWD LATE DAY 4. IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN

THE SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT POTENTIAL WILL

EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME FROM ERN

NM INTO WRN TX WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL

LIKELY EXIST. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE

STORMS.

DAY 5...SEVERE THREAT MAY EXPAND NWD TO INCLUDE THE CNTRL PLAINS IN

ADDITION TO A PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS AS MOISTURE ADVECTS NWD IN

WAKE OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS TO

DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF DRYLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE

GFS AND ECMWF EJECT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS

EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH WEAKENING MID LEVEL FLOW AND HEIGHT RISES

IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. THOUGH THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGEST SEVERE

STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE FROM PARTS OF TX NWD INTO THE

CNTRL PLAINS...WILL NOT INCLUDE A RISK AREA FOR DAY 5 AT THIS TIME

DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES AND POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS.