Model Outlook For Chase Team 1

[Nick F]

GFS suggests potential for storms over parts of OK and north TX Mon-Weds along a frontal boundary, the Sern stream of the jet streak doesn't look particularly strong but there should be about enough wind shear for some supercells - possibly looking at SLIGHT risks those days rather than anything more severe ... but still time for the picture to improve:

- Tues 00z

- Weds 00z

- Thurs 00z

Could be alot worse IMO, be thankful that there's a ridge over Ern US which looks to stay there, while shortwaves continue to move in from the west over central-US around the upper long-wave trough over the western half of the US.

[MAF]

Convective outlook for

Sat, Apr 25, 2009 - Wed, Apr 29, 2009

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0359 AM CDT WED APR 22 2009

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THRU THE

UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND...

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD PERSISTS AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...

INCLUDING THE MREF...REGARDING THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN

THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THIS FORECAST

PERIOD. BUT...REASONABLE ENOUGH AGREEMENT APPEARS TO EXIST

CONCERNING THE EMERGENCE OF ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE FROM

THE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES THIS

WEEKEND. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE NORTHEASTWARD

MIGRATION OF A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS

LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...INTO AND THROUGH THE UPPER

MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

GIVEN THAT THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO BE PRECEDED BY A SUBSTANTIVE GULF

RETURN FLOW BENEATH VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ASSOCIATED

MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE

FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR

SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE

POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE

SYSTEMS.

[Paul Sherman]

Yes

As Nick Says the Outlook IS Favourable for quite a few days Chasing from Day 1 (Mon 27th April) So lets be happy that we are not Sitting around, Another good thing to Note is the Impulses And Shortwaves that continue to move across the Plains which will give us Chances.

If I was betting on the best chance of Tornadoes it would be on Day 1 of our Chase In S Central Oklahoma, and less so as we move through Tuesday and Wednesday with Large Hail and More in the Way of Severe Thunderstorms than Supercells Likely. End of the Week currently looking like a Lull (Maybe Big Texan) :lol: Before more Troughs Line Up for the Later part of the Weekend and into Next Week.

Agree With Nick that the Models are certainly NOT Showing anything above Slight Risks at the Moment (Of course this can Change) But even with Slight Risks you can get some pretty Violent Tornadoes.

I still have a Feeling Saturday Will Go MODERATE On the SWODY2 (Day 2 Outlook) Tomorrow! and may even scrape a Low end Moderate for Sunday but more Likely a Slight Risk!

Will be Interesting to see if they Include a Day 4 Outlook closer to DFW For Sunday Evening!

You know what I am thinking :lol:

Paul S

[MAF]

yeah Paul, we know what you're thinking :lol:

still, as you say. slight risk may still be worthwhile and could always be a precursor for more activity

[Gorky]

Yet again, you seeem to be killing yourself by looking at the GFS more than 4 days out, Paul :lol: Seriously, it's bad for your health with the amount it flip flops around in this time scale!

Remember last year just before I l left on May 18th and the GFS was forecasting death ridge for 2 weeks? I think I remember you despairing about the possibilities back then but ECMWF and WRF both had the huge trough forecasted which resulted in the tornado fest may 22nd-23rd. I've come to look at the GFS for eye candy only outside of 4-5 days and take it with a pinch of salt. I'm not sure what they have done with that model, but it almost seems to have lost accuracy over the last few years. Compared with the other models available. This also seems to be the case in it's tropical cyclone forecasting skills as it was often hundreds of miles out with it's tracks the last few years. Even now, the GFS keeps the trough out west so I'm sure there'll be chase opportunites until it ejects late into next week. As it is, I'd love to be heading over next week, and whilst it is a shame that there looks to be a big event on Saturday, I'm wouldn't be too disappointed with the following days.

[dogs32]

I will be over the moon with just Thundrstorms to be honest...Because of the rubbish we get here...If we get a Supercell I will be over the moon....If a Twister I will shout like Reed Timmer...

Just to catch hail bigger than a penny i will be in my glory...

:lol:

And theres still plenty of time for things to get even better

Edited April 23, 2009 by dogs32

[Gorky]

4500 cape plotted for the OK/TX border on Wednesday evening against LI's of -9 degrees would be suitable for some pretty gigantic hail I'd imagine, although upper air winds could be better on that day. Again, thats from the GFS so expect it to change somewhat being over a week away. Sunday's risk now stretches down to the OK/TX border north and west of DFW so it might be possible to make some storms, but it may well be more squall line based towards the southern end. I couldn't imagine anything more perfect than booking into your overnight hotel and watching a nice squall coming through though :lol:

[Paul Sherman]

http://blog.texasstormchasers.com/?q=node/2

Tour 1 - Read the Above and Crack Open the Champagne :lol: :lol:

Nathan I hate the GFS As you Know - Have about 20 % Trust in that Model, So the Eye Candy Charts are nice to look at but the ECMWF Is better at the Longer Range and has Consistantly Kept the Trough Out West! So I am happy with that!

I am just Thankfull that we have some Chase Opps, Last years Chase was very Slow with only 2 chases in the first 6 days as you well know!

[Gorky]

Yup, The GFS is definately trending to the ECMWF at the moment which is great news for you guys. (Not so much me who has to sit abck and watch this all unfold from home:) ) the only reason I am going out a bit later this year than the previous years is due to work committments so it is a little annoying as I would have been there for the weekend event probably, but who knows, perhaps there'll be even better setup in 2 weeks time for me and teams 2 and 3 to enjoy :lol:

[Paul Sherman]

I see the Latest GFS 6z has been playing around with the Paint Tool Again :lol: :lol: Obviously Not to be taken for Granted yet but still good Signs

- Monday Chase Day 1

- Moisture Chase Day 1

- Temps Chase Day 1

- Tuesday Chase Day 2

- Moisture Chase Day 2

- Temps Chase Day 2

- Wednesday Chase Day 3

- Moisture Chase Day 3

- Temp Chase Day 3

Paul S

[dogs32]

Check this out :lol:

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING

RAIN... WILL LIKELY BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT

WEEK. GULF MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN BY

FRIDAY... AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DRY LINE WILL

SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY... AND

WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A

SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO OKLAHOMA AND

NORTHWESTERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OR

NEAR THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS AREA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE

MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALL OF THIS WILL TAKE PLACE BENEATH A STRONG

AND PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT... WHICH WILL FEATURE

SEVERAL EMBEDDED SMALL-SCALE DISTURBANCES. MOISTURE...

INSTABILITY... AND VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY

THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE THE DAYS

WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER... BUT THERE WILL BE

SOME RISK OF SEVERE STORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY AND NIGHT FROM FRIDAY

THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

Great time Paul to pick to fly out with trough after trough could materialise from here after with slight lulls...EVER TRIED PLAYING THE LOTTERY :lol:

Its like this active period as been waiting for you

Edited April 23, 2009 by dogs32

[Paul Sherman]

GFS Been on the Wine again on the 12z Run!!

Sunday now shaping up to be possibly better than Saturday on some of the Models (Esp NAM)

I wonder if we can get a Tail End Charlie far enough South "If" It could trundle across Close to DFW, Would be quite exciting for the Team but Not So Good for Danny (Who lands at 1030pm) Any Sniff of a Supe coming in from the West and they will Close DFW Airport :lol: :lol:

Paul S

[dogs32]

i am in awe of these charts Paul....

I thought it couldnt get any better...Than this but every time I look its better....Cant wait for the 23.00 run....

Im so chuffed that there might even be a OutBreak at some point.

Talk now is electric in other places about nearly all next week and maybe the following...

I couldn't of wished for anything better..Surely this cant get much better than this..

Im so glad now I bought so many CF cards :lol:

I think I might just see the most lightning I have ever seen..With crazy CAPE like this...

edit...if this all works out Tammy we are going to be rewarded BIG TIME....MANY DAYS

Edited April 23, 2009 by dogs32

[Aunt Sally]

This looks bloomin fantastic :lol: What a great way to start a storm chase!! Can't wait to get going!

Packing - done, Husband organised - done, work finished - nearly done! Just need to get to Heathrow and get on the plane - see you all there :lol:

Tammy

[Tom Lynch]

I have to say from where I am sat ATM it looks like we are in for a busy period :lol: I like that idea. Better still to have some storms to greet us on our first night. I have my bags 99% packed and just need to get my luggage tags written up. Don't forget to write the name of the hotel on the tags so if they go walk abouts they will catch up with you. I have all my various batteries charged and my storm alert radios packed and ready to roll.

[dogs32]

THX Tom forgot about the name of Hotel to put on my tag.

Yes this is looking seriously good,even talk about next week...(week after)

as they are looking at the possibilities of many trough's to come

Edited April 23, 2009 by dogs32

[Tom Lynch]

THX Tom forgot about the name of Hotel to put on my tag.

Yes this is looking seriously good,even talk about next week...(week after)

as they are looking at the possibilities of many trough's to come

Hi there

The hotel is Best Western Irving Inn, 4110 West Airport Freeway, Irving , Texas TX 75062 and yes the progs are currently better than I have had for my last few trips out there. Last year I hit a bad patch spend 5 days using suncream and so the possibilty of getting some action straight away is nice.

Tom

[Nick F]

Hi there

The hotel is Best Western Irving Inn, 4110 West Airport Freeway, Irving , Texas TX 75062 and yes the progs are currently better than I have had for my last few trips out there. Last year I hit a bad patch spend 5 days using suncream and so the possibilty of getting some action straight away is nice.

Tom

No long days keeping out the punishing Oklahoma sun in Eischens Bar sipping Coors and munching on Fried Chicken this time eh!

Is looking good next week the more and more I look at the charts as they update, GFS and ECM keep the long-wave trough sat tight over the western-half of the US with enough height falls and succesion of shortwaves coming around to give potential of storms over the Plains each day ... as the sfc low sits tight over the High Plains and keeps the warm moist air advecting north up into the central Plains. That front doesn't look to move through too quickly either - which is good. The limiting factor maybe lack of really strong upper winds - so perhaps keeping in SLIGHT terrritory but this may change closer to the time.

[Tom Lynch]

No long days keeping out the punishing Oklahoma sun in Eischens Bar sipping Coors and munching on Fried Chicken this time eh!

Is looking good next week the more and more I look at the charts as they update, GFS and ECM keep the long-wave trough sat tight over the western-half of the US with enough height falls and succesion of shortwaves coming around to give potential of storms over the Plains each day ... as the sfc low sits tight over the High Plains and keeps the warm moist air advecting north up into the central Plains. That front doesn't look to move through too quickly either - which is good. The limiting factor maybe lack of really strong upper winds - so perhaps keeping in SLIGHT terrritory but this may change closer to the time.

Hi Nick

Yes you are correct about those long hot days spent in the Oklahoma sun sipping at a cool beer, but a mans gotta do what a mans gotta do. Now the news that we are going to be able to chase is exciting to say the least. As you say it could change and there is always that possibility. Just need a bit of luck.

Tom

[dogs32]

:o :o

nice to have you along Nick

Edited April 23, 2009 by dogs32

[Nick F]

I'm actually thinking now it's going to be hard for me to stay behind on Sunday morning while you jet off to Dallas and enjoy some proper storms ... can you not smuggle me through

Got to wait 'till May 19th :o

[Paul Sherman]

I'm actually thinking now it's going to be hard for me to stay behind on Sunday morning while you jet off to Dallas and enjoy some proper storms ... can you not smuggle me through

Got to wait 'till May 19th

Come Come Come :o :o

There is a Spare Seat!!!!

Only 7 On Tour 1 and room for 1 More!!!

Paul S

[Nick F]

There is a Spare Seat!!!!

Don't tempt me!!!

[Paul Sherman]

Don't tempt me!!! :o

- GFS Chart of the Week for Tuesday

I am NOT Chasing That - The Hail would SMASH The Car Up :o

[ian cameron]

- GFS Chart of the Week for Tuesday

I am NOT Chasing That - The Hail would SMASH The Car Up :o :o

Spoil sport wheres your sense of adventure LOL