Another Bad Start To Summer?

[andy_leics22]

Apart from a few weeks ago when we had a week or so of dry and Sunny weather with very warm temperatures across the whole of the country I think it has been a pretty poor start to Summer. In the past week we have had temperatures averaging around 16-17c here in the Midlands and quite a lot of rain aswell. The models are pointing to another week of pretty wet weather again for most of England and Wales. As it stands the Models are showing rain for Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and possible showers on Friday too. Only at the moment does it look like Saturday will be more summery with 20c here forecast in the Midlands and a dry day. So far this June has been cool and rainy apart from the first day or 2 of June. With a possible 3-4 more days of rain forecast it could be the first 2 weeks of June with cool temperatures and wetter than average.

For quite a few years now I remember it being a poor June for warm and sunny periods. Off the top of my head I can say that June 2007 and June 2008 were pretty rainy months with cool temperatures for the most part. Seems we are going to have a repeat for this June unless the 2nd half of June will start to settle down. The models right now though aren't hinting at anything settled for the next 7 days

I hope July is a mainly settled month with hot temperatures, our seaside towns need more custom this year than they had in 2007 and 2008!

[Bottesford]

I wouldn't call it a bad start to summer at all - pretty normal in fact. A hot spell late May/early June then into the standard 'Euro monsoon' you get in many June's.

Certainly it's felt cool of late in comparison to the other week - but isn't the June average max something like 16-19c (north to south) so you wouldn't really expect 25c+ to be that common yet. Admittedly the maxes have been down these last few days with nothing over 15c since last week now - but these cool spells are often balanced with the warmer spells.

I'm not too worried about the summer as a whole based on this start - it can & probably will flip back to something warmer, perhaps towards the end of the month as it often does.

My hope is that the warmer, sunnier & drier periods outweigh the cooler/damper periods.

[flagpole]

Blimey it's only June and we've not had that much bad weather have we?

[KTtom]

It must be a location thing then. Here we have had a pretty good start to summer, although agreed the forthcomming week looks poor.

The weekend of the 18th May was pretty good and the last week was pretty warm with clear blue skies. The last couple of summers have also seen a good start here but as soon as it brokedown it remained broke for the rest of the season give or take a day or two. The test will be how quickly, if at all it settles down again.

Given the winter we've had I feel a more 'typical' summer to come

[Thundery wintry showers]

June 2008 was a classic illustration of the unrealistic expectations of many on here in the spring and summer. It was widely perceived as a terrible dull cold wet month, and cries of "move on it's summer now" were rampant when some were welcoming the convective potential of the northerly interlude midmonth. Yet statistically, temperatures and rainfall were widely close to average and sunshine above average. South-west England had a dry sunny month.

The widespread dull wet weather set in later, especially during August which was widely the dullest since 1912. July was also very wet, but dull only in parts of the N and W.

June 2007 began with a spell of warm dry sunny weather in central and western areas though anticyclonic gloom was very persistent near the east coast. Away from the east coast, it was the latter two-thirds of the month that caused the abundance of rain and shortage of sunshine- and some east-coast areas had an exceptionally cloudy month.

This start to June has had something of a switch-around actually- it's all too easy to forget that the first two days were warm dry and sunny almost nationwide and that in the SW the hot anticyclonic conditions lasted another two days.

[TonyH]

Saturday has been the only poor day (Saturday) I have experienced in the last 12 days (first in the Midlands and latterly back here), and that gave 42mm rain and was very cool. Before this 7 days were dry, often sunny and warm/ very warm. Since this cool but dry.

I suppose thats 'another bad start to Summer'?

A bit of perspective really is required I feel sometimes !

[Nick.F]

A fairly average start to June hereabouts. Probably a little cooler that one would expect, but not much, but very little rain compared with some Junes. June has always struck me as a troublesome month, hot sunny ones I only remember as a rare thing.

Most days have either been mostly sunny, or with significant sunny spells. Even the weekend just gone was only really bad for a couple of hours on Sunday morning, but the garden needed the rain, other than that it was T Shirt weather for the work in the garden for the best part of both days.

So I guess where one is has a very big impact on one's perception of the summer so far. If in this neck of the woods the wind was from a warmer more humid direction, it would have been pretty good.

Edited June 8, 2009 by Nick.F

[TonyH]

Although cool most of the past week in the Midlands, in Coventry only Friday to Sunday saw any rain, so thats hardly a 'rainy' start to June!

Coventry past week

[Derp Patrol]

well for early June averages are 16-19C in the south and for late June averages are about 17-22C.. but this week We've had 16C and cloudy skies with rain.. I wouldn't really call it average.. but yes I seem to remember Junes being poor.. let's hope July is good!

Edited June 8, 2009 by robthefool

[Snowyowl9]

I would say June 1991 was the worst possible start if you don`t like it cold as there was air frosts.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119910603.gif

As for this month I would say a very mixed start to say the least from very warm and dry to cold and wet.

Probably won`t be that wet now for a while just showers.

Edited June 8, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[reef]

I dont think many on here realise what a really poor June is like. It has been 18 years since we had a June that averaged 13.8C or less. Not to mention that before 2008 we had gone through a period of 8 consecutive above average Junes, the latter 5 all averaging more than 1C above average (2007 included)!

It is a symptom of how our climate has changed in the last couple of decades that pretty average months are seen as poor. I often mention how shocked people would be if we had a real stinker of a summer averaging in the 14s like we used to get. Take 1988 for example, that year we reached 20C just 20 times here and I dont have to remind people how wet that one was either!

It must also be remembered we've just come out of over 3 months of homogenous warmth. It was only a matter of time before some cooler weather came along. It could last a week or two, or possibly all summer. Both scenarios have occured in the past, though the best summers often got going in the second half of June so thats something to be positive about.

[Duane S.]

It's been a perfectly average start of the summer.

The thing is, early June has virtually always been a rainy period of weather for us in the UK. For a period of between one and three weeks around about this time, almost by clockwork, we get battered by the Atlantic. Then as quick as it arrives it all calms down and we get a good spell of settled weather.

This has the hallmarks of being a shorter lived version, the signs are there of a return to a more 'summery' feel in about 8-10 days time.

[Derp Patrol]

But facts are facts, this June has not been average so far for many areas.. 15C max temps are not average for June in London as 12C max temps in Scotland aren't average.. Haven't seen the sun for a week

[I remember Atlantic 252]

inconsistant start to summer 2 hot first days 26.8C max on the 2nd, 23oC unbroken sun on 1st june, so actually a good 'start' to summer but cooled down for weekend 11.2C max on the 6th, 14.2C on the 7th, today a fairly normal 18.7C max, no rain today

andy leicester like the pic lol best ever now he is,

[andy_leics22]

OK I see a few people are surprised at my post, yes I admit that at the end of May it was glorious here, had around a weeks worth of settled and very warm weather. My gripe is about June though, so far this June it's been fairly poor here, when I say poor I mean in terms of warm temperatures and sunshine. The first 2 days of June were stunning but after that it's been mostly cloudy and cool with rain on 2 days since the 2nd of June. We haven't had that much rain really but the cool weather and cloudy skies have made it feel a bit depressing the past 5 days.

It looks on the charts like it's going to be rainy for the next 4 days for a lot of England and Wales so when I add the 5 poor summer days we have had so far this June to another 4 poor days it makes 9 days out of 11 so far this June that aren't warm and sunny.

I hope someone can understand what I am talking about. I know it might sound like i'm judging summer already which i'm not... I'm just basing the fact that there has been a fair bit of rain around in the past 5 days in England and Wales especially and that it looks like there is another 4 days to come aswell. Not a great start to summer is it really?

inconsistant start to summer 2 hot first days 26.8C max on the 2nd, 23oC unbroken sun on 1st june, so actually a good 'start' to summer but cooled down for weekend 11.2C max on the 6th, 14.2C on the 7th, today a fairly normal 18.7C max, no rain today

andy leicester like the pic lol best ever now he is,

Thanks Mark, yeh I love my tennis and I was so happy when Federer won the French Open. Hopefully now there will be less debate on who is the greatest of all time.

Yeh the inconsistency to the start of summer is what I am reffering to. Maybe the title of the thread sounds worse than I am wanting it to sound lol. I am not saying summer will be a poor one, I am just saying that for some reason in the UK we seem to get a poor June quite a lot. 2007 and 2008 weren't very summery overall and the start to this one hasn't been very summery either. Admittadly the first 2 days were glorious though.

Edited June 8, 2009 by andy_leics22

[stewfox]

The first 2 days of June were stunning but after that it's been mostly cloudy and cool with rain on 2 days since the 2nd of June. We haven't had that much rain really but the cool weather and cloudy skies have made it feel a bit depressing the past 5 days.

Based on the first 2 days we would have had a great start to summer the next 5 a bad start

Lets wait till the 15th and be bit more objective :lol:

ps if you want to include 'forcast' days as well we have had 15 cold winters in a row

Edited June 8, 2009 by stewfox

[andy_leics22]

Based on the first 2 days we would have had a great start to summer the next 5 a bad start

Lets wait till the 15th and be bit more objective :lol:

I agree but having seen the models the past few days I thought that it would be a reasonably poor start to June. Look at them currently and they forecast rain or heavy showers for most of England and Wales up until Saturday. So if that comes true... It would be 9 days out of 11 this June that have been cool and cloudy/wet.

ps if you want to include 'forcast' days as well we have had 15 cold winters in a row

Thing is in summer though... The models tend to be more accurate for forecasting upto 5 days away. In winter they chop and change even 3-4 days away when there is something different to zonality. I reckon the forecast from the models at the moment is going to be pretty accurate up to Saturday. Rain or showers for a lot of England and Wales between now and Saturday.

[Nick.F]

But Andy those conditions are only where you are. I consider myself "in the south", even if I am in the far east, and we just haven't had that bad a start to the month.

Out of the wind both Saturday and Sunday here, I was able to do proper sunbathing, in just shorts, for about 2 hours on Sunday and on several occasions on Saturday.

One of the joys of the British weather is that a distance of 10 miles can mean a different type of weather. It is important that generalisations like "in the South" and "much of England" are best avoided, as more often than not they do not apply.

[Derp Patrol]

Well looking at the new charts, very promising, finally the people that keep saying that this is going to be like 2007 can stop!

[J07]

I wouldn't call it a bad start to summer at all - pretty normal in fact. A hot spell late May/early June then into the standard 'Euro monsoon' you get in many June's.

But isn't the Euro "monsoon" just a return to drab westerlies? This pattern change came in the form of a northeasterly, didn't it?

[andy_leics22]

But Andy those conditions are only where you are. I consider myself "in the south", even if I am in the far east, and we just haven't had that bad a start to the month.

Out of the wind both Saturday and Sunday here, I was able to do proper sunbathing, in just shorts, for about 2 hours on Sunday and on several occasions on Saturday.

One of the joys of the British weather is that a distance of 10 miles can mean a different type of weather. It is important that generalisations like "in the South" and "much of England" are best avoided, as more often than not they do not apply.

True

[stewfox]

I agree but having seen the models the past few days I thought that it would be a reasonably poor start to June. Look at them currently and they forecast rain or heavy showers for most of England and Wales up until Saturday. So if that comes true... It would be 9 days out of 11 this June that have been cool and cloudy/wet.

June CET at present is 0.3c above the long term average , up to June 7th

'If' things forcast come true the CET will look to fall below average in the next few days

However any June that starts predominately with rain and cloud isnt going to be regarded as 'good' thats for sure

[GRHinPorts]

Yeh the inconsistency to the start of summer is what I am reffering to. Maybe the title of the thread sounds worse than I am wanting it to sound lol. I am not saying summer will be a poor one, I am just saying that for some reason in the UK we seem to get a poor June quite a lot. 2007 and 2008 weren't very summery overall and the start to this one hasn't been very summery either. Admittadly the first 2 days were glorious though.

Ironically both 2007 and 2008 had far more "summery" starts to June than this year. Here in the far south (and looking at the charts it would seem it was the same for most of England) the period 1-10 June offered some of the best warm sunny weather of either Summer.

This is really the first disappointing start to June since 2005 and as a result is probably coming as a shock to the system.

[Terminal Moraine]

I dont think many on here realise what a really poor June is like. It has been 18 years since we had a June that averaged 13.8C or less. Not to mention that before 2008 we had gone through a period of 8 consecutive above average Junes, the latter 5 all averaging more than 1C above average (2007 included)!

It is a symptom of how our climate has changed in the last couple of decades that pretty average months are seen as poor. I often mention how shocked people would be if we had a real stinker of a summer averaging in the 14s like we used to get. Take 1988 for example, that year we reached 20C just 20 times here and I dont have to remind people how wet that one was either!

It must also be remembered we've just come out of over 3 months of homogenous warmth. It was only a matter of time before some cooler weather came along. It could last a week or two, or possibly all summer. Both scenarios have occured in the past, though the best summers often got going in the second half of June so thats something to be positive about.

I agree with your post entirely, Reef; it's somtheing I've mentioned several times in the past on different threads.

It's obvious that a persons age will have a lot to do with how they perceive any given month and with a high proportion of young people on this board ( well, compared to me anyway ) there must be a large number who have never experienced a really poor summer.

I know 2007 was very wet but the rainfall was concentrated into a 5 week spell in the middle, the rest of the summer being nothing much out of the ordinary. 2008 was also quite wet but neither of these two were in the same league as the really poor summers such as, for example, 1954, 1956, 1965, 1985, 1986 or 1988 for persistent cool weather and rain.

With regard to this June? It's only just started. 10 days or so of fine warm weather towards the end and the beginning will be forgotten. If we end up with a June like 1971 or 1972 followed by a July like 1988 and an August like 1985 or 1986 there will be genuine cause for complaint ( though not from me of course ) and a good idea of what really poor summer weather is all about.

[Snowyowl9]

A wet cold august I handle as long as theres been a good spell beforehand from 1985.

Theres a few charts here,with a bit of a thundery breakdown halfway through,which settled down again.

The only thing I can remember about 1985 was the severe thunderstorm sometime during the school holidays.

There were thunderstorms during school time it could`ve been that or probably it was a previous year.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119850629.gif

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Edited June 9, 2009 by Snowyowl9