Another Bad Start To Summer?

[johnholmes]

sorry ba I'll try and remember that

[Thundery wintry showers]

There are interesting parallels between how this summer has started, and between how July and August 2000 panned out. High summer of 2000 was generally regarded as a poor one, mainly because of the dull cold July for most central and eastern areas (though August offset this to some degree), but in western Scotland it was sunny and reasonably warm, and very dry in July. The third week of August 2000 also featured a very similar synoptic pattern to what we have now, with a very sluggish westerly and sunshine mixed with thundery downpours over N Ireland, Scotland and N England.

However I don't think that parallel is going to last- it should become drier sunnier and warmer generally in the S and E I reckon.

[BristolBaggie]

It's been a cool and wet start to summer yet again.

Prepare for a heatwave.......don't make me laugh

The whole of the Met Office should be sacked (with no pension rights)

Where is the summer heat ? and I mean heat 38 or more

[bluearmy]

It's been a cool and wet start to summer yet again.

Prepare for a heatwave.......don't make me laugh

The whole of the Met Office should be sacked (with no pension rights)

Where is the summer heat ? and I mean heat 38 or more

tongue in cheek??? or is the thread for wierdos ...............................

[reef]

It hasnt been such a bad start to summer here. We've had rainfall on just a single day in the last 18 and that was only 2.5mm. Theres also been no real heat but no real cold either. Sunshine levels havent been bad either.

All in all, average temperature-wise for the first half of June, but drier and sunnier than the norm. Cant complain at that, but then again Im not one of those who has to have heat. I can live without it!

[Derp Patrol]

The first 2 days were wonderful! And then from then untill a few days ago it has been awful down here with cloudy skies, and lots of drizzle type rain with temps in the mid teens. But this weekend has been good, not amazing, but good nonetheless, and if we can get a nice end to June as the charts are hinting at, then I will consider this month as good overall.

[GRHinPorts]

There are interesting parallels between how this summer has started, and between how July and August 2000 panned out. High summer of 2000 was generally regarded as a poor one, mainly because of the dull cold July for most central and eastern areas (though August offset this to some degree), but in western Scotland it was sunny and reasonably warm, and very dry in July. The third week of August 2000 also featured a very similar synoptic pattern to what we have now, with a very sluggish westerly and sunshine mixed with thundery downpours over N Ireland, Scotland and N England.

However I don't think that parallel is going to last- it should become drier sunnier and warmer generally in the S and E I reckon.

I sincerely hope there are not any further parallels with the year 2000 as I think near most of us will not want to live through another Autumn like we had in that year.

[J07]

I sincerely hope there are not any further parallels with the year 2000 as I think near most of us will not want to live through another Autumn like we had in that year.

What happened? I can't remember. Was it the November floodings?

[Stargazer]

Trevor Harley's site sums up autumn 2000 nicely:

http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley/2000_weather.htm

Average rainfall for Sept-Nov 2000 was close to 500mm in the UK, perhaps the wettest autumn since records began. Parts of the south received around an entire year's average rainfall in these three months. Residents of southern England will particularly remember the floods in Chichester and Lewes.

Edited June 15, 2009 by Stargazer

[Thundery wintry showers]

I remember Autumn 2000 very well. In Tyneside it was phenomenally wet, but sunshine and temperatures were both close to average (a dull September being offset by a relatively sunny October and November). Many other areas had a much worse time of it with severe flooding and dislocation and a considerable shortage of sunshine.

As for this summer getting off to a bad start, if the high pressure around 21 June comes off, we could well be looking at a June that comes out sunnier and slightly warmer than average, and quite possibly on the dry side in many areas, though with rainfall totals swollen in places by localised thundery downpours- here in Exeter we will almost certainly record over twice the normal rainfall. It seems to be developing into a pretty interesting and varied month from my perspective. However I concede that if I was still living on the Tyne & Wear coast or in east Scotland my opinion of the month might be quite a bit lower.

[Guest Shetland Coastie]

What summer up here :lol:

Temps have barely been autumnal, never mind summery. Today for example - currently 11C.

[Weather-history]

Manchester Summer Index is a respectable 186 for this stage of the summer.

[andy_leics22]

re the title of this thread.

some facts about the temperatures in the afternoon on each day so far in June

average afternoon temperatures range from 17C to 20C for much of mainland UK, say from Forth-Clyde south-apologies to those further north and N Ireland.

today 2-5C above average=warm

Saturday 13 June=ranging from 22-26C from northern England southwards

Friday 12 June=about average for most

Thursday 11 June=much as 11th

Wednesday 10 June=generally below average

Tuesday 9 June=below average

Monday 8 June=below average

Sunday 7 June=below average

Saturday 6 June=well below average

Friday 5 June=about average for most

Thursday 4 June=about average

Wednesday 3 June=hot or very warm for most

Tuesday 2 June=hot or very warm for most

Monday 1 June=hot or very warm for most

Well a mixed bag using the actual maximum temperatures for each day.

5 days with well above average

4 about average

5 below average

so all in all neither a good nor a bad start to summer in terms of afternoon temperatures for most of mainland UK.

John I have to say... I think it is egg on face time for me. When I created this thread we had just had a fair few days of heavy rainfall across the country and the GFS were hinting at 3-4 more days of rain or showers for much of the country... Well that didn't materialise in some parts, it did in others, like the flooding in Sheffield.. But temperatures have been quite good since I made this thread. Maybe I should do threads like this at the start of Winter, then we may get a lot of snow

[Hiya]

Sorry to hear that SC, it hasn't been scorching here (apart from the mini-heatwave two weeks ago), but it has been very dry, which is common at this time of year. Even yesterday which was threatening to be wet ended up with ten minutes of rain; barely enough to water the garden. Tomorrow should bring a good dump of rain, not sure it will be a recurring theme though (looking at the GFS output).

It was a reasonable 10 minute cloudburst, shown by the river level of the Gryffe, recorded by SEPA (normal minimum flow 0.1m, so this graph says a lot):

http://www.sepa.org.uk/water/river_levels/...level_data.aspx

Bit of a contrast to the east coast, where I would consider the weather to have been poor during June so far, lots of cloudy, showery, chilly days.

[damianslaw]

Have to reiterate a comment I made a few days ago, this summer has certainly got off to a very interesting and varied start, with heat, cold, thunder (Monday just gone saw some of the best and long lasting thunderstorms we have seen in this part of the Lake District for a long time), beefy showers, and clear blue sky days from dawn till dusk.

If the rest of the summer continues in similiar vein in my book it will have turned out not a bad summer at all, with poor weather quickly replaced by superb summer weather, yesterday June 1st and 2nd and yesterday were superb summer days.

[Methuselah]

It's not been that bad up here...Compared to the last two years, it's been quite sunny???

[SunnySouthCoast]

It has been a nice start to summer here on the south coast, after a fairly warm & dry spring. I recorded 22C in April, 27C at the end of May & just shy of 29C at the start of June. So far this month it has been mostly dry & sunny with temps getting to at least around 20C & last weekend it was in the mid 20's & in the low 20's this week

[Thundery wintry showers]

In Cleadon it's been worlds apart from Exeter with a mean max of 15.7C over 1-15 June- 0.1C below the mean max for May! In addition Cleadon missed the storms and the sunshine on 15 June and got low cloud from the North Sea all day. I probably would be feeling quite "peeved" if I was up there. However it should be sunny and reasonably warm there next week despite the wind off the sea.

For Exeter- sunshine from today onwards perhaps?

[Tucco]

In Cleadon it's been worlds apart from Exeter with a mean max of 15.7C over 1-15 June- 0.1C below the mean max for May! In addition Cleadon missed the storms and the sunshine on 15 June and got low cloud from the North Sea all day. I probably would be feeling quite "peeved" if I was up there. However it should be sunny and reasonably warm there next week despite the wind off the sea.

For Exeter- sunshine from today onwards perhaps?

Mean max here 1-15th June 13.6C, which is above mean max for May at 12.7C. Late May/June is probably when there is least temp difference between here and locations close to NE Coast as the N Sea effect is at its max.

Mean temp here is around 1C below average at present but I would expect to get close to average of about 11C by the end of month.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

Edited June 19, 2009 by Tucco

[Summer of 95]

Interesting to hear that it reminds some of 2000- I was just thinking how more and more it was starting to resemble summer 2001 here. The story of that summer was one of 2-3 day hot spells ending in thunder, followed by 1-2 weeks of mixed conditions- some really nasty cold wet stuff, some sun, and lots of "nothing" weather (ie mostly cloudy with sunny intervals and the odd shower, maxes in the high teens to low 20s). This persisted from mid-June till late August. It wasn't a great summer but it was better than either 2000 (awful July, only a couple of hot days in June, OK August) or 2002 (a really frustrating summer, warm-looking synoptics kept producing bags of cloud with no heatwaves).

[GRHinPorts]

Interesting to hear that it reminds some of 2000- I was just thinking how more and more it was starting to resemble summer 2001 here. The story of that summer was one of 2-3 day hot spells ending in thunder, followed by 1-2 weeks of mixed conditions- some really nasty cold wet stuff, some sun, and lots of "nothing" weather (ie mostly cloudy with sunny intervals and the odd shower, maxes in the high teens to low 20s). This persisted from mid-June till late August. It wasn't a great summer but it was better than either 2000 (awful July, only a couple of hot days in June, OK August) or 2002 (a really frustrating summer, warm-looking synoptics kept producing bags of cloud with no heatwaves).

Sof95 - Quite a long while back I remember reading a post by you where you described 5 different types of UK Summer*.

I cannot remember all the details but I distinctly remember you describing one of the 5 types as being "Mr Average" and presenting 2001 as a classic example. Your recollection of that Summer certainly tallies with my own.

* Sincere apologies if it were not you but I wouldn't mind reading about that again sometime as I felt it gave a very good description of the various possible UK summer weather patterns.

[J10]

It has been quite a good start to summer, the start of June was great, OK Saturday the 6th was a washout, but the following day was decent if not overly warm, least weekend was very nice as was the Monday and Tuesday, Wednesday was a little wet, and the last couple of days, bright and quite warm in the sunny spells.

The coming week looks warm and sunny, which means a good June overall, however there are some big regional variations in this.

[Summer of 95]

Sof95 - Quite a long while back I remember reading a post by you where you described 5 different types of UK Summer*.

I cannot remember all the details but I distinctly remember you describing one of the 5 types as being "Mr Average" and presenting 2001 as a classic example. Your recollection of that Summer certainly tallies with my own.

* Sincere apologies if it were not you but I wouldn't mind reading about that again sometime as I felt it gave a very good description of the various possible UK summer weather patterns.

Yes- that was me, I think I posted it sometime in 2007 (can't remember exactly when); yes I did cite 2001 as a classic "Mr. Average" and also gave 1996 as another example.

The pattern of a few hot days followed by a thunderstorm, at 2-3 week intervals, interspersed with a mix of cold wet days, "sunshine and showers" and the "average" 18-22C broken cloud and scattered showers type weather was what I meant- 2001 fitted that exactly.

The other types I can remember were:

"False Starter"- lots of warm dry sunny weather between April and June, followed by a marked deterioration in July/August; the classic example being 1992. 1998 I think I gave as another less clear-cut example (August wasn't as bad as July), 2004 also belonged here as did for the most part 1993 and 2000.

"July Takes All"- a hot sunny July the main feature, with a disappointing August. June varies in these summers from quite good (2006) to mixed (1994) and poor (1999). Often follows a poor May. 1989 and 1983 too had this pattern, although August wasn't as bad as in a classic example.

"Late Starter" (not sure exactly what I originally named this one); the opposite of False Starter with a poor May/June/early July leading to a much improved August. 1991 the best example, 1997 and 1990 probably belong here too.

"Peaks and Troughs"- somewhat like Mr Average but longer and more intense hot spells (1-2 weeks) followed by the same duration of poor (not average) weather. 2005 a superb example especially in June/July.

Only a few summers don't seem to show any of these patterns; principally those like 1995/1976/1959 which probably merit an additional "Stunner" category, and real oddballs like 2007 which had signs of both False Starter (cracking April) and Late Starter (much drier August). 2002 and 2008 were atypical False Starters; they both had warm months to start (April 2002 and May 2008) followed by a marked deterioration, but never managed any sunny hot weather at any time.

[Snowyowl9]

I think I should start a new thread for this but I won`t this set-up currently so much reminds me of this such annoying spell of drizzle and showers we had during high pressure in august 2000,it promised so much but failed to deliver,but at least this time the high will bring in E-ly winds in time.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120000805.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120000806.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120000807.gif

The high that gave the most rain I could remember.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2000/...cka20000806.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2000/...cka20000807.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/2000/...cka20000808.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack0.gif

Edited June 20, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[GRHinPorts]

Yes- that was me, I think I posted it sometime in 2007 (can't remember exactly when); yes I did cite 2001 as a classic "Mr. Average" and also gave 1996 as another example.

The pattern of a few hot days followed by a thunderstorm, at 2-3 week intervals, interspersed with a mix of cold wet days, "sunshine and showers" and the "average" 18-22C broken cloud and scattered showers type weather was what I meant- 2001 fitted that exactly.

The other types I can remember were:

"False Starter"- lots of warm dry sunny weather between April and June, followed by a marked deterioration in July/August; the classic example being 1992. 1998 I think I gave as another less clear-cut example (August wasn't as bad as July), 2004 also belonged here as did for the most part 1993 and 2000.

"July Takes All"- a hot sunny July the main feature, with a disappointing August. June varies in these summers from quite good (2006) to mixed (1994) and poor (1999). Often follows a poor May. 1989 and 1983 too had this pattern, although August wasn't as bad as in a classic example.

"Late Starter" (not sure exactly what I originally named this one); the opposite of False Starter with a poor May/June/early July leading to a much improved August. 1991 the best example, 1997 and 1990 probably belong here too.

"Peaks and Troughs"- somewhat like Mr Average but longer and more intense hot spells (1-2 weeks) followed by the same duration of poor (not average) weather. 2005 a superb example especially in June/July.

Only a few summers don't seem to show any of these patterns; principally those like 1995/1976/1959 which probably merit an additional "Stunner" category, and real oddballs like 2007 which had signs of both False Starter (cracking April) and Late Starter (much drier August). 2002 and 2008 were atypical False Starters; they both had warm months to start (April 2002 and May 2008) followed by a marked deterioration, but never managed any sunny hot weather at any time.

Cheers for that

In your original post I remember you going into quite a descriptive rant about 1992 which I found very funny