Convective/storm Discussion

[Costa Del Fal]

It's possible, so what your saying is that your having 3 seperate flows? for each LP near the U.K. This would look like this;

I dont think i have ever seen that before.

Has the West Midlands and Northern parts of East Anglia shifted miles North?

It will be very interesting to see what the Charts offer tomorrow.

[Lewis]

Has the West Midlands and Northern parts of East Anglia shifted miles North?

It will be very interesting to see what the Charts offer tomorrow.

Yep West mids and N areas of East Anglia is now known as East yorkshire & Hull

[dogs32]

Simply from how the showers usually organise themselves, especially over the last week or so. Nothing too technical!

Although judging by the CAPE and LI charts, it seems feasible

ok..np..thx....just like to know if there is any new info out..cheers...

[Harry]

It's possible, so what your saying is that your having 3 seperate flows? for each LP near the U.K. This would look like this;

Reduced 65%

321 x 365 (13.57K)

I dont think i have ever seen that before.

It was my way of saying they could occur anywhere - but yes, as the pressure charts stood earlier, I would say any developments which occur further North would be pushed more ENE or NE around the W centered L pressure systems. The L pressure to the E should push any activity in a SE direction.

You wouldnt have seen any set up like that as, like me, there hasnt been so many L pressure centres over/around the UK at one time

Edited June 13, 2009 by Harry

[Costa Del Fal]

Yep West mids and N areas of East Anglia is now known as East yorkshire & Hull

Hmm, i wondered that...

[Phil UK]

True, Shelby770. But doesn't always happen. I think sharp showers at best tomorrow. Monday, well anything goes.

I'm used to disappointments weatherwise, be it snow in December or storms in July but the unexpected is a bonus. Perhaps for once, METO et al will have it spot on.

Phil.

[shrike]

Amazing day - Had great t/storms through day with hail/ thunder/lightning then to end day off at around 7pm another major storm with rotation occured which I have never witnessed before - thought a funnel cloud was goin drop!

Took few videos and pics!

Get video on later!

[Lewis]

Hmm, i wondered that...

Why is it everyone class's us in e yorkshire at NE england even though we are not, and then when people mention Eastern england/E.A that never include yorkshire

My take on things for Monday

[Harry]

Rob McElwee - "They could be anywhere...storm spotters will probably love it"

Not a bad forecast then and Rob not expecting temps in the SE to fall below 16C tomorrow night haha

Edited June 13, 2009 by Harry

[Paul Sherman]

My Hope for Monday

- Although this Supercell near my Favourite Place is currently Ingesting 7,000jkg of Cape

[Costa Del Fal]

Why is it everyone class's us in e yorkshire at NE england even though we are not, and then when people mention Eastern england/E.A that never include yorkshire

My take on things for Monday

Lol, does it matter? Technically, Yorkshire is either Northern or North East England however you want to put it.

[Harry]

Well, just join in the debate, I can confirm Kent is in the SE - the most SE point of the Uk in fact, lol

Sarah Wilmshurst (a face Ive not seen for years) talking over 27C for the SE tomorrow - nice!!

Edited June 13, 2009 by Harry

[dogs32]

My Hope for Monday

- Although this Supercell near my Favourite Place is currently Ingesting 7,000jkg of Cape

something like this will do..

with Aqua green clouds full of large hail

[Paul Sherman]

What I find laughable is all this talk about Monday when there is quite a pokey risk for Tomorrow for Northern Ireland, Much of Scotland, Most of Northern England and Central and Northern Wales for some pretty decent Thunderstorms. Shear is again weak with the Jet Stream over Southern England but Slow Moving Thunderstorms in a Slack Flow could spark off some Torrential Downpours more esp from 3pm until 9pm.

Favoured spots tomorrow looks likely to be the Highlands of Scotland with the CZ Zone up there, NE England is looking very good and The Higher Terrain of Wales also. Northern Ireland should also see clusters of Thunderstorms tomorrow.

Lets get tomorrow out of the way 1st eh ??

Paul S

[Ross B]

Indeed Paul. I took a trip down to the coast to watch that large storm coming over from N.Ireland but it basically died out just as it came into view

Ah well, there is still tomorrow or Monday for a small storm to occur here.

[shrike]

Have longer video than this but this was rotating like mad!

http://tinypic.com/r/2yuyasl/5

http://tinypic.com/r/2lc1irm/5

[Paul Sherman]

Indeed Paul. I took a trip down to the coast to watch that large storm coming over from N.Ireland but it basically died out just as it came into view

Ah well, there is still tomorrow or Monday for a small storm to occur here.

Good luck Ross, tomorrow should be another good day for you guys up there! I know you are trying to get sometime Daytime Lightning shots up there but I am even trying to get my 1st Uk Lightning shots in this country, it is ridiculous.

And with what I am pretty certain will happen on Monday with the Steering winds it does not look like Monday will deliver down here either. The reason for this is Showers will readily form over the SW & South Wales and move ENE To affect areas along and North of the M4, Some places South and East of London could stay dry all day on Monday with pleasant Sunshine

Sigh - Oh well only 10 months to go - or (312 days) not that I am counting B)

[anvilhead]

evenin all.

on the subject of whether supercells are possible with current forecasts for monday, i get the feeling that wind profiles will be possible turning in certain areas - check out the horizontal line of 53N on this gfs slicer, for 18Z on monday - at longitude 0 (grenwhich) theres backed surface winds from the east, southerly 850's and a strong w/sw jet - I get the feeling theres a possibility of storms going supercellular as they head off NE through the evening hours.

I'll be setting off from Birmingham at 5:30, so may well catch anything coming across!

Edit: oh yeah .. here's the link http://www.wetter3.de/vertikal.html

Edited June 13, 2009 by anvilhead

[A.J]

Well, I've decided to take monday off work, and will be looking to chase, from around 3pm onwards, at the moment I'm looking at the A45 corridor from coventry to Northampton.....Anyone interested in tagging along drop me a PM

[Lewis]

Well, I've decided to take monday off work, and will be looking to chase, from around 3pm onwards, at the moment I'm looking at the A45 corridor from coventry to Northampton.....Anyone interested in tagging along drop me a PM

Can you pick me up from Hull please?

[Neilsouth]

I saw a supercell year before last , or was it last year just off the kent coast... But anyway , it really is an amazing thing to see. It was also the first time i saw lightning shoot out into an empty sky!

[Paul Sherman]

Problem is Sam the best Dynamics probably wont aid/assist where the Storms will Fire and ultimately end up with this Wind Vector we have. Now if the Dynamics we have here in the South East for Monday were over the Midlands then we could see some serious Problems (See July Birmingham Tornado)

But yes you are right "if" a Storm can find its way through this area on Monday it has a very good chance to become the Severist of the Year down here.

I would stick with your target of Birmingham though if I had Monday off work (Which I dont anyways )

Good luck with it!

Paul S

[anvilhead]

I saw a supercell year before last , or was it last year just off the kent coast... But anyway , it really is an amazing thing to see. It was also the first time i saw lightning shoot out into an empty sky!

I will never, ever forget driving up to one in kansas last year - it ended up chasing us south down a gravel track for miles when it got dark - there was lightning spidering around in the anvil above us - incredible

[Lewis]

Problem is Sam the best Dynamics probably wont aid/assist where the Storms will Fire and ultimately end up with this Wind Vector we have. Now if the Dynamics we have here in the South East for Monday were over the Midlands then we could see some serious Problems (See July Birmingham Tornado)

But yes you are right "if" a Storm can find its way through this area on Monday it has a very good chance to become the Severist of the Year down here.

I would stick with your target of Birmingham though if I had Monday off work (Which I dont anyways )

Good luck with it!

Paul S

Stupid question but your brilliant with tornado's... Whats the chances in percent of me seeing another tornado like thursday, or possibly more severe. (Going by the current models)

[anvilhead]

Problem is Sam the best Dynamics probably wont aid/assist where the Storms will Fire and ultimately end up with this Wind Vector we have. Now if the Dynamics we have here in the South East for Monday were over the Midlands then we could see some serious Problems (See July Birmingham Tornado)

But yes you are right "if" a Storm can find its way through this area on Monday it has a very good chance to become the Severist of the Year down here.

I would stick with your target of Birmingham though if I had Monday off work (Which I dont anyways )

Good luck with it!

Paul S

Ah ok - cheers Paul. Its always a grey area for me this - that gfs slicer thing has shown good wind profiles a few times, but I never know whether they'll coincide or not .. whats happening synoptic wise to make the storms coincide with the straighter wind profiles ? is it a case of thats where the forcing is to get things going?

so many questions, so few answers!