Convective/storm Discussion

[Harry]

I know its too early and totally conjecture, but regarding Mondays potential for "intense thunderstorms", the BBCs latest focus is "eastern areas"

West it is then lol

[Paul Sherman]

Stupid question but your brilliant with tornado's... Whats the chances in percent of me seeing another tornado like thursday, or possibly more severe. (Going by the current models)

Lewis

As Sam says all the ingrediants are there for Monday to be on a Par with last Thursday, better Cape (At the Moment) better temps and dewpoints, the only thing missing is the turning with height (Which you had on Thursday) I would never rule out Landspout type Tornadoes with Severe Multi Clusters (Which should be in your area later on Monday) So a good chance of something Tornadic.

The Models may push the little details further North over the next 36 hours, and if the Upper Winds become better further North West than where they are progged at the moment then we could get the Updraught and Downdraught Seperation which is crucial to Supercellular Storm Formation. Remember we will (If the Models hold the Cape Values) have ample Cape for Supercells as you only really need 500jkg minimum

Paul S

[dave48]

I think mondays potential is being seriously ramped, by the media especially.

Look like a fairly widespread scattering of 'average' thunderstorms, if it the set up is as currently suggested. Some people will get storms, others won't. Although sometimes these set ups do create a few crackers, they will probably be fairly localised, if they do occur at all.

[Lewis]

Lewis

As Sam says all the ingrediants are there for Monday to be on a Par with last Thursday, better Cape (At the Moment) better temps and dewpoints, the only thing missing is the turning with height (Which you had on Thursday) I would never rule out Landspout type Tornadoes with Severe Multi Clusters (Which should be in your area later on Monday) So a good chance of something Tornadic.

The Models may push the little details further North over the next 36 hours, and if the Upper Winds become better further North West than where they are progged at the moment then we could get the Updraught and Downdraught Seperation which is crucial to Supercellular Storm Formation. Remember we will (If the Models hold the Cape Values) have ample Cape for Supercells as you only really need 500jkg minimum

Paul S

Thanks mate, very helpfull indeed, the miss's was scared of the tornado on thursday, she just said to me now ask Paul if something happens would they be powerfull enough to bring down a full house lol.

I could not answer that question, i dont think i would like too lol.

[Paul Sherman]

Ah ok - cheers Paul. Its always a grey area for me this - that gfs slicer thing has shown good wind profiles a few times, but I never know whether they'll coincide or not .. whats happening synoptic wise to make the storms coincide with the straighter wind profiles ? is it a case of thats where the forcing is to get things going?

so many questions, so few answers!

Lol yes so many questions and answers - and they always change at the last minute!

As per now currently I am expecting a mixture of LP & Topographical Lift to get them going which is why I would favour 3 areas.

1. Salisbury Plain

2. Dartmoor

3. Welsh Mountains

And anywhere NE Of this should see the Storms.

Was you thinking of coming down to this area then Sam or are you staying around the Birmingham area, just noticed you said you would be departing Birmingham ??

Paul S

[user700]

My Hope for Monday

- Although this Supercell near my Favourite Place is currently Ingesting 7,000jkg of Cape

Yep nice storms in that part of the world just been watching

http://www.tornadovideos.net/full-screen-chaser-video.php

Danny

[jo200199]

I can't take it anymore B) After being forecast some great activity last week, I got 1 faint hearted rumble of thunder Please don't tell me we will just be the breeding ground again here in Ebbw Vale, S.Wales...... There was some great action north of us last week, but we missed the lot

[Paul Sherman]

Yep nice storms in that part of the world just been watching

http://www.tornadovideos.net/full-screen-chaser-video.php

Danny

Lol I have just been watching the Same Supercell on Bill Tabor's Feed on Severe Studios

http://www.severestudios.com/livechase

Some great Cg's on there

[anvilhead]

Lol yes so many questions and answers - and they always change at the last minute!

As per now currently I am expecting a mixture of LP & Topographical Lift to get them going which is why I would favour 3 areas.

1. Salisbury Plain

2. Dartmoor

3. Welsh Mountains

And anywhere NE Of this should see the Storms.

Was you thinking of coming down to this area then Sam or are you staying around the Birmingham area, just noticed you said you would be departing Birmingham ??

Paul S

hey Paul -

Yeah - leaving birmingham at 5:30 after work - I usualy drive back to cirencester but if theres anything remotely lively going on I'll head in that direction .. birmingham might not be such a bad starting point for anything firing off the welsh mountains I supose

[Lewis]

http://www.tornadovideos.net/full-screen-chaser-video.php

watching that too live how weird, there heading WNW to try and intercept the cell. Looks impressive

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes- I believe that for Northern Ireland, Scotland and coastal counties of north-east England, tomorrow should actually be the peak day. Other areas stand a greater chance on Monday.

I find it difficult in particular to believe that coastal areas of NE England could see storms on Monday- as a slight easterly breeze will have picked up by then. I was reeled in on my 23rd birthday (22 June 2007) with the idea that the thunderstorms could somehow make it into the coastal strip despite the wind being slightly east of due south, and was proved wrong- storms avoided areas within 10 miles of the coast. The GFS Precipitation does not pick up these localised dry areas along the coastal strip because the resolution is too low (though it will be interesting to see what N-W's own high-res model makes of it).

It may well end up being the same near the south coast of the SE, though I fancy Exeter in the SW to pick up some showers as they sometimes develop over Dartmoor and head east- but just an outside chance of a thunderstorm here I think.

[Ross B]

Good luck Ross, tomorrow should be another good day for you guys up there! I know you are trying to get sometime Daytime Lightning shots up there but I am even trying to get my 1st Uk Lightning shots in this country, it is ridiculous.

And with what I am pretty certain will happen on Monday with the Steering winds it does not look like Monday will deliver down here either. The reason for this is Showers will readily form over the SW & South Wales and move ENE To affect areas along and North of the M4, Some places South and East of London could stay dry all day on Monday with pleasant Sunshine

Sigh - Oh well only 10 months to go - or (312 days) not that I am counting

I'm still trying for my first UK lightning photos as well! Ah well, one day : B)

Lucky sod, storm chasing for 6weeks in May? That will make you very homesick and in need of a good curry by the time you get back! I hope i can come but i doubt it with the speed that the tour is selling out.

[dave48]

Yes- I believe that for Northern Ireland, Scotland and coastal counties of north-east England, tomorrow should actually be the peak day. Other areas stand a greater chance on Monday.

I find it difficult in particular to believe that coastal areas of NE England could see storms on Monday- as a slight easterly breeze will have picked up by then. I was reeled in on my 23rd birthday (22 June 2007) with the idea that the thunderstorms could somehow make it into the coastal strip despite the wind being slightly east of due south, and was proved wrong- storms avoided areas within 10 miles of the coast. The GFS Precipitation does not pick up these localised dry areas along the coastal strip because the resolution is too low (though it will be interesting to see what N-W's own high-res model makes of it).

It may well end up being the same near the south coast of the SE, though I fancy Exeter in the SW to pick up some showers as they sometimes develop over Dartmoor and head east- but just an outside chance of a thunderstorm here I think.

Hey TWS,

Have been debating whether or not Bath or Exeter will be a better call for monday, Bath has all the better numbers but it depends how westerly the winds are, if it is indeed westerly then Bath is sometimes to close to the Bristol channel and storms fire further east, but it is a bit better if things are heading from the south west. Exeter is in a good postion as you say, but only an outside chance of a thunderstorm.

[anvilhead]

Haha - what a cg on JR Henley's stream just then! - not sure if thats a tn, or just inflow winds - never seen such a strong VIL signal on gr3 though, and tops over 60kft

[Paul Sherman]

I'm still trying for my first UK lightning photos as well! Ah well, one day :

Lucky sod, storm chasing for 6weeks in May? That will make you very homesick and in need of a good curry by the time you get back! I hope i can come but i doubt it with the speed that the tour is selling out.

I know nearly 7 weeks (47 days)

I reckon we will add a 2nd Vehicle to the June Tour so still 5 Spaces left on that, still time mate!!!

And June is bloody active - This is the 14th Straight Risk day since 1st June and the 3rd Moderate out of the last 5 days! Monday is looking likely to go Moderate as well, so June is usually very good as well.

Anyway back on topic and I guess the best we can do is sit here tomorrow after the Goofus 18z Run and see what sort of Dynamics it will throw up, will also see what the UKMO Is thinking by then as well.

Night all

Paul S

[Tony Gilbert]

Slight Risk of Scattered Thundery Showers Ireland, Scotland, Central and northern UK. 09Z-21Z Sun 14th June 09

Once again a rather low risk outlook with a good probability of widespread thundery showers. Filling quasi stationary low just west of Ireland continues to push further surface fronts across the UK & Ireland during Sunday. Upper cold pool remains in place and sustains a moderate lapse rate as surface heating once again gets under way. A weak shear profile all but precludes any suggestion of severe weather. Though some reference is given to the risk of some late troughing N.Wales. Where a mid level dry incursion runs through on 30kt winds at 500 mb.

[dave48]

Thunderstorms in the channel.

[Neilsouth]

Thunderstorms in the channel.

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Little ones too , awww aren't they cute

[shrike]

Here is my video of hail -

http://tinypic.com/r/2hmg7rr/5

[anvilhead]

dont know if anyones watching jr henleys feed right now, but i've never seen close cg's raining round a car like that - he must be desperately trying to outrun this storm http://www.tornadovideos.net/full-screen-chaser-video.php

2 TVS signals in there too !

[Supacell]

Tomorrow is looking fantastic atm!!!

I am at work until 5:30pm but I am hoping to chase tomorrow evening should it not be all over by then. I am thinking, being located in Derby I will be in a very good position to start my chase. In actual fact, if things stay as they are I may get to see some good action by just staying put

Otherwise, my plan would be to travel east for a late night pyro display!

[Costa Del Fal]

Still looking very good for here, all the right ingredients for the Midlands. Should be very interesting.

[maidstone weather]

Can't believe that, yet again storms skoot past the south coast and miss Kent

--------------------------------------------------

Here we go again, a sense of deja-vu

Northern Ireland

Heavy Rain 1100 Sun 14 2100 Sun 14

Heavy showers with hail and thunder are expected this afternoon and evening giving rainfall accumulations of 20 to 30mm in a 3 hour period.

Edited June 14, 2009 by maidstone weather

[loopydreamer]

Still looking very good for here, all the right ingredients for the Midlands. Should be very interesting.

i hope we will get a storm

i was wondering whether worcestershire might be a little too far west though! im thinking the best action will be a bit more east of me hope not!

[Supacell]

i hope we will get a storm

i was wondering whether worcestershire might be a little too far west though! im thinking the best action will be a bit more east of me hope not!

I doubt you are too far west. Worcestershire looks to have some of the highest CAPE at 18z tomorrow (up to around 1400j/kg). Obviously final details aren't going to be nailed until closer the time but looking ok for your location atm.

I would of thought the best action will be further east by late evening/overnight though, so best chance of a night show in the east.

I am also interested in an area of showers that could develop over N Wales and push east towards Cheshire later on today. Not sure if the ingredients are there for them to become thundery though, and this is if they even develop at all!