Convective/storm Discussion

[Tn9]

If a band of storms breaks out across S Wales and pushes ESE, does that not head therefore for London and the SE?

You would be right,but if Lewis is going by law of averages he is likely to be spot on,all we seem to be doing here is chasing shadows,not storms

Edited June 13, 2009 by TN9

[Guest]

IMO it's far to early to make silly assumptions like that. With a slack airflow around almost anything could happen - just look at today, heavy showers across the SE at the moment which should've been on the continent!

Isolated shower north of my location (Dronfield, South Yorkshire) currently. Not electrically active, but it is a really muggy, summery night. We also have an isolated patch of AcCas. Hopefully we'll catch an isolated heavy shower/storm tomorrow

Not in a bad location for Monday either, with my time spent between Sheffield and Doncaster. I shall arm myself with a videocam just in case I accidently intercept a storm on my way back from Donny!

[Lewis]

Thats ok, I live in NW Kent

If however storms do follow a similar track, the storms themselves could aid release of the CAPE across the SE!

Wouldnt it be funny if the SE and EA get pummelled, and the midlands get only isolate downpours...would only be fair...lol

I was taking the Michael after all us here up North never get noticed, it's always you southerners LOL, get 10 storms more than anywhere else and you still want your name on everything lol.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

[Costa Del Fal]

I cant understand why people are looking at specifics right now e.g Something from South Wales going ESE. Thunderstorms are so unpredictable, pretty much anything could happen.

[maidstone weather]

I was taking the Michael after all us here up North never get noticed, it's always you southerners LOL, get 10 storms more than anywhere else and you still want your name on everything lol.

We ain't had a single storm this year!!

[Harry]

I was taking the Michael after all us here up North never get noticed, it's always you southerners LOL, get 10 storms more than anywhere else and you still want your name on everything lol.

I know you were - but us southerners are now becoming so deprived jokes arent funny, lol

In all seriousness, many a time westerly set ups have brought me storms. I am not quite sure though why we are so confident its going to be a W to E or SW to NE set up - with three areas of L pressures expect to be plonked right over us, and no doubt troughs develop, it could all go anywhere

[dave48]

The storm chance is exactly the same as before, chance of widespread thundery activity, unlikely to be severe and probably limited in organisation, but slow moving so 'good' for anywhere that does get hit. Another good run backs this up.

Also interesting, according to the GFS, there was over 1500 CAPE over Ireland this afternoon and 500 + in parts of England and Wales. Not so sure.

[Lewis]

I cant understand why people are looking at specifics right now e.g Something from South Wales going ESE. Thunderstorms are so unpredictable, pretty much anything could happen.

Its called forecasting/prediction i thought thats what we are all here for?

You can tell what the metoffice think by looking at the warning maps, SW not included and if its from the west it's clear whats going to happen.

[Costa Del Fal]

Its called forecasting/prediction i thought thats what we are all here for?

You can tell what the metoffice think by looking at the warning maps, SW not included and if its from the west it's clear whats going to happen.

Im Not saying no one should make forecasts but with Thunderstorms inparticular, looking at specifics doesent really help imo because Thunderstorms are so unpredictable.

[Guest]

We may see a similar organisation of thundery showers, like recent days. Sharp showers developing early, clustering in Central and Eastern Wales, before pushing eastwards affecting M4 corridor, E Mids running in to Yorkshire as well. Slow easterly progression throughout the day, high rainfall totals, and incidents such as hail and funnel cloud developments.

[Harry]

Its called forecasting/prediction i thought thats what we are all here for?

You can tell what the metoffice think by looking at the warning maps, SW not included and if its from the west it's clear whats going to happen.

Indeed - you will probably end up being right - but I dont want you to be

[Lewis]

We may see a similar organisation of thundery showers, like recent days. Sharp showers developing early, clustering in Central and Eastern Wales, before pushing eastwards affecting M4 corridor, E Mids running in to Yorkshire as well. Slow easterly progression throughout the day, high rainfall totals, and incidents such as hail and funnel cloud developments.

Aaaaahmen to that!

Spot on mate, exactly what i think will happen. Regarding funnel development hope its not during the night because i witnessed a tornado the other day here in Hull and i would onions myself if i couldnt see that coming lol.

[dave48]

Aaaaahmen to that!

Spot on mate, exactly what i think will happen. Regarding funnel development hope its not during the night because i witnessed a tornado the other day here in Hull and i would onions myself if i couldnt see that coming lol.

The severe threat looks unlikely but the current GFS has got some good convergence up the centre of the UK which could spark off a few CZ funnels/weak tornados. Depends if the convergence materialises on the day.

[Harry]

Aaaaahmen to that!

Spot on mate, exactly what i think will happen. Regarding funnel development hope its not during the night because i witnessed a tornado the other day here in Hull and i would onions myself if i couldnt see that coming lol.

For what its worth I think there will be three main areas of storm development - one will form around N Wales NW England and drift NE towards the NE. One will develop across the W Midlands and drift ENE towards Lincs and northernmost EA. Another will develop S of Wales/Bristol area and drift along the M4 corridor towards SE.

Edited June 13, 2009 by Harry

[Tn9]

Im Not saying no one should make forecasts but with Thunderstorms inparticular, looking at specifics doesent really help imo because Thunderstorms are so unpredictable.

Thunderstorms may be unpredictable in your area Blizzards,but in our little neck of the woods they are,like,as in,i predict we wont get one,going by recent statistics

Edited June 13, 2009 by TN9

[MetWX]

Is there any reason why the likes of Hampshire is omitted from the storm risk on Monday, just curious as to the factors involved for that decision.

[Costa Del Fal]

Tbh, all this talk of where storms may hit gets me all excited, like being a kid again Hopefully the GFS will raise the CAPE values to say, 3000j/kg and LI of -10 in future runs

Lol, we can all dream about that...

Imo, the areas at risk of Storms on Monday are as follows : East Wales, West Midlands, East Midlands, East Anglia, (Areas above the M4), North West & North East England, Northern Ireland, Ireland and parts of Southern Scotland. Isolated to scattered Storms possible elsewhere.

South East England may stand a chance imo too- a it 50/50 right now on that one.

Edited June 13, 2009 by Blizzards

[dogs32]

We may see a similar organisation of thundery showers, like recent days. Sharp showers developing early, clustering in Central and Eastern Wales, before pushing eastwards affecting M4 corridor, E Mids running in to Yorkshire as well. Slow easterly progression throughout the day, high rainfall totals, and incidents such as hail and funnel cloud developments.

hi Shellby where did you get that read up mate ..cheers

[Harry]

Is there any reason why the likes of Hampshire is omitted from the storm risk on Monday, just curious as to the factors involved for that decision.

As discussed earlier, I would wait until late tomorrow and early monday before we consider specifics

Edited June 13, 2009 by Harry

[Costa Del Fal]

Thunderstorms may be unpredictable in your area Blizzards,but in our little neck of the woods they are,like,as in,i predict we wont get one,going by recent statistics

Lol, i think you have a 50/50 sort of chance on Monday. I think the SE will have to depend on Radar watching in particular on Monday though basically so will the rest of the UK.

[Tn9]

Is there any reason why the likes of Hampshire is omitted from the storm risk on Monday, just curious as to the factors involved for that decision.

The only factor i can think of,and its a big factor too,the way the crow flies your too close to me

Edited June 13, 2009 by TN9

[Lewis]

For what its worth I think there will be three main areas of storm development - one will form around N Wales NW England and drift NE towards the NE. One will develop across the W Midlands and drift ENE towards Lincs and northernmost EA. Another will develop S of Wales/Bristol area and drift along the M4 corridor towards SE.

It's possible, so what your saying is that your having 3 seperate flows? for each LP near the U.K. This would look like this;

I dont think i have ever seen that before.

[maidstone weather]

Rob McElwee is just calling to us at the very end of his online forecast

[Guest]

hi Shellby where did you get that read up mate ..cheers

Simply from how the showers usually organise themselves, especially over the last week or so. Nothing too technical!

Although judging by the CAPE and LI charts, it seems feasible