Storm/Convective Discussion

[Paul R]

According to the BBC North West forecast, looks like the CF won't arrive until 3-4am tomorrow morning. They did however say that the front would pep up as it moved east, which is contradicting what the national forecast said. I'm confused.

[Snowyowl9]

The air is much dryer less humid today,when the altocumulus dispersed earlier and there was some virga about after to the west.

A few fair weather Cu

A thin veil of cirrostratus coming in now.

I was hoping to see a nice mid-level storm tonight 2 years since the last one.

It could still happen yet, but looking outside now is like looking for a needle in a haystack.

[pinball wizard]

Just looked on the Net Weather charts... Chances of storms anywhere in the UK from tonight till at least Monday is pretty much 0. Check out the CAPE and Lifted index all the way from tonight till Monday... Hardly a sniff of storm potential anywhere.

As has been stated by others already the models have not been very clever today so I'd not rule anything out or in. Its a case of radar watching, as it generally always is!

[Supacell]

BBC rainfall graphics on there website show some blue blobs around the Welsh borders this evening and then some green blobs in the SE and E Anglia. Seems they are picking up on something.

AJ, had I not been at work I probably would have been around your area every day this week. :o

The fact you had 4 storms kind of shows that the weather forecasts weren't wrong and didn't handle the situation badly this week as some have said. The forecast was for isolated thunderstorms and that is what happened. Its just unfortunate that mother nature couldn't distribute more fairly - i am still yet to see a sniff of a storm this week. But whereas I was dry there are places that got absolutely battered.

Todays situation has been handled poorly though, but then its a complicated scenario.

[dogs32]

Looks like SE may get storms after all later this evening or overnight good luck :o

yes Francias on Sky saying the same thing...what happened to the West :o

[Carl46Wrexham]

People dont know what really being unlucky is!...All this talk of storms, and I've only had 4 this week! :o

4 more than me Bud...believe it or not you've been one of the lucky ones.

[andy_leics22]

Would be funny if all storm lovers in the Midlands went to bed feeling down because of little chance of storms then in the middle of the night there's an almighty BANG! and it's a thunderstorm right over your head :o Would love a surprise like that!

Yep :o

[Supacell]

Would be funny if all storm lovers in the Midlands went to bed feeling down because of little chance of storms then in the middle of the night there's an almighty BANG! and it's a thunderstorm right over your head :o Would love a surprise like that!

That happened to me last July. Forecast for nothing and I was awoke at about 3am by an almighty crash and then watched CG's pelting down on the hill behind me for about half hour.

I remember it many times in my childhood. Lets hope it happens tonight... although if i chase I won't actually be in bed to be awoken :o

[Costa Del Fal]

Would be funny if all storm lovers in the Midlands went to bed feeling down because of little chance of storms then in the middle of the night there's an almighty BANG! and it's a thunderstorm right over your head :o Would love a surprise like that!

Would be great but we know what would really happen... :o

[dogs32]

what is wrong with that front its hardly moved East all day......probaly be there tomorrow

Edited July 2, 2009 by dogs32

[Supacell]

Would be great but we know what would really happen... :o

Sleep through it and then awake to hear that a massive storm passed through overnight with frequent CG's, golf ball hail and a tornado! :o

[10 Days Away]

A decent circular blob looks to be getting its act together as it approaches south Kent from the channel (according to sat24) and looks to have my name on it. Lots of haze here so can't make out any cloud definition but being only 6 miles from the coast I will keep my ears pinned back for my first rumblings of the summer.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Does Reigate count as south east :o

Very much so its not hampshire!!

[Neilsouth]

The storm that was coming towards the south east looks to have decayed too much on the latest radar update

[Mondy]

Still good cells building over Scotland just north of my location now. Suspect the Highlands/Grampian mountains are aiding the storms/build up.

The action is up here guys and gals.

[A.J]

4 more than me Bud...believe it or not you've been one of the lucky ones.

I think you missed the undertone of sarcasm in my post!!!!

[andy_leics22]

Sleep through it and then awake to hear that a massive storm passed through overnight with frequent CG's, golf ball hail and a tornado! :o

Haha your avatar is a screenshot of that lightning strike in that video on Youtube isn't it Beady eyes Andy never misses a trick :o

[Wilxy]

Is anything actally gunna happen with this cold front cause its doing nothing.

[remymartin]

what is wrong with that front its hardly moved East all day......probaly be there tomorrow

The bbc forcast still thinks its going to move over to the east early hours of morning it needs to get a move on if thats to happen :o

[A.J]

BBC rainfall graphics on there website show some blue blobs around the Welsh borders this evening and then some green blobs in the SE and E Anglia. Seems they are picking up on something.

AJ, had I not been at work I probably would have been around your area every day this week. :o

The fact you had 4 storms kind of shows that the weather forecasts weren't wrong and didn't handle the situation badly this week as some have said. The forecast was for isolated thunderstorms and that is what happened. Its just unfortunate that mother nature couldn't distribute more fairly - i am still yet to see a sniff of a storm this week. But whereas I was dry there are places that got absolutely battered.

Todays situation has been handled poorly though, but then its a complicated scenario.

Good Post!.....hoever Nick Finnis's convective forecast is bang on in my eyes.....for those who have NW Extra, you'll be able to see the risk factors that Nick was mentioning for the midlands/CS England.....to elaborate, moist air is being advected northwards ahead of the CF...Surface CAPE is now developing in these areas combined with moderate lift, a CZ has set up from roughly IOW stretching NWwards into the west midlands, thus the risk is there, for isolated storms to break out ahead of the slowly advancing CF, so for the evening, it wouldnt surprise me to see an isolated storm/heavy shower to pop up along, or near this CZ...Remember, just a humble opinion :o

[Carl46Wrexham]

As for what GFS charts might show from now on...after several days of seeing charts showing 1500j + of CAPE and LI of -5 and -6 over a large part of the UK...and naff all come of it except for the lucky few...next time I see such charts..one word will enter my head then emerge from my mouth........BALLS.

[twister2005]

Hey Dogs whats happening with that cell south of us?

[Noctilucid]

East Kent always ends up under a thundery trough with storms moving Northwards, I've seen that countless times the past few years, East Kent is lightning alley. :o

Completely sunny here, no sign of the storms to my SE yet. :o

[Mondy]

Is anything actally gunna happen with this cold front cause its doing nothing.

Probably come up against extremely hot temps and thought "wtf?" so decided to stall. :o

[Paul R]

BBC rainfall graphics on there website show some blue blobs around the Welsh borders this evening and then some green blobs in the SE and E Anglia. Seems they are picking up on something.

Not on the latest update it doesn't.

There was some convective activity going on here to the west and north (and possibly to the south, but I'm sat down at the moment and not all that inspired to get up and have a look), but it seems to have disappeared now.