Wednesday's Storm/Low Pressure Discussion

[Joneseye]

According to the 24 hour accumulation figures on the netweather extra radar some parts of cornwall and south wales that are exposed to the south west wind have already had 56+ mm of rain with more to come (see dark brown and red colours):

[Coast]

It's oh so quiet, shh shh

It's oh so still, shh shh......

and I don't think it's going to get noisy here :blush:

In fact it's been very quiet all over Europe on the detectors so far. I know some activity was forecast for this afternoon onwards, but I did expect something 'electrical' over Ireland and Wales this morning. I hope my initial misgivings about today's possibilities (first thing this morning) don't come to fruition.

[The PIT]

So far it's what storm here. Was supposed to be windy well it isn't. The heavy rain hasn't really got going for any length of time. Looking like the warning away from the South West is going to get the pear award. Still time for it too change but looking doubtful that forecast amounts will turn up here.

As for T Storms no chance.

Looking at NW radar feed at the moment it seems to be fizzling out.

Edited July 29, 2009 by The PIT

[azores92]

11mm of rain today so far, and has rained proper since about 9 this morning. still curious over the rain in the south west, an whether it is heading for us. i would have thought it should have stopped raining by about 6/7pm by the radar.

[sunny scunny]

Moderate/heavy rain for hours here and it continues to come down.

[The PIT]

Well light rain has resumed here probably get a little heavier but miles away from the forecast heavy stuff.

[Wilxy]

I think we are gunna get hit harder by this second wave of heavy rain.

[azores92]

I think we are gunna get hit harder by this second wave of heavy rain.

it may transfer up our neck of the woods, though i am not certain of it.

[topsweep1506]

Starting to get some heavy showery rain here in Newcastle (NE) in the last hour

TONY

[03jtrickey]

Absolutely pouring with rain here.

I think we must be under that vigorous looking area of rain SE.

Edited July 29, 2009 by 03jtrickey

[dogs32]

yes non stop moderate to heavy rain here for hrs now....

just looked at the radar and theres plenty more to come

edit...very thundery here now

a few gutter's overflowing here

Edited July 29, 2009 by dogs32

[Andy Bown]

aswell as a Waterspout being seen off the Bristol Channel earlier today.

Yes, it was shown on BBC Points West and the photo was taken by Ian Fergusson who is a NW member. Maybe he could post it up on here if he's reading?

As I am at work, I am not sure how much rain we have had this morning. But I would be suprised if it is more than 11-12mm's. Not sure who is going to get 70-100mm's.

Widely I would expect 20-30mm's. Maybe a very isolated spot recieving 40-45mm's.

Steve, I hope you've seen the below post by Joneseye because I, too, was going to show the NW Extra accumulation. There certainly is more to come in those areas which have already seen approaching 3 inches over the last 12-24 hours!

According to the 24 hour accumulation figures on the netweather extra radar some parts of cornwall and south wales that are exposed to the south west wind have already had 56+ mm of rain with more to come (see dark brown and red colours):

It annoys me somewhat when members post saying they've not had the predicted stuff in their particular 'back garden', when the warnings that I saw/heard were for a general risk of 'X amount of rain' today. Given that's it's only just gone 15.15, that there's a broad band of rain edging East which includes heavy pulses running NNE along it, and as posted above 3+ inches have fallen in places I'd say the warnings are justified - particularly given how much rain has already fallen in the last few weeks! It doesn't have to happen in your back garden for it to actually happen !

(plus I'm a little greyed seeing as my girlfriend's in 31c/sunshine in Spain & I couldn't go!)

[azores92]

do we reckon the heavy stuff over devon is going to track its way towards the midlands? or will the drier air move in and stop all the days fun.

[Paul Sherman]

Yes, it was shown on BBC Points West and the photo was taken by Ian Fergusson who is a NW member. Maybe he could post it up on here if he's reading?

Andy If you want to see a picture have a look at the thread below

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=31775&posts=18&start=1

Although If he is the BBC Presenter that said this was a FC/Tornado/Waterspout then he needs to be shot - Nothing more than a Rainshaft out to sea.

[Joneseye]

It annoys me somewhat when members post saying they've not had the predicted stuff in their particular 'back garden', when the warnings that I saw/heard were for a general risk of 'X amount of rain' today. Given that's it's only just gone 15.15, that there's a broad band of rain edging East which includes heavy pulses running NNE along it, and as posted above 3+ inches have fallen in places I'd say the warnings are justified - particularly given how much rain has already fallen in the last few weeks! It doesn't have to happen in your back garden for it to actually happen !

(plus I'm a little greyed seeing as my girlfriend's in 31c/sunshine in Spain & I couldn't go!)

My thoughts entirely!

Who would actually want to see 70mm fall in their back yard? Certainly not me after July 2007 where 111mm fell in 1 day after a model forecast of 100mm.

[The PIT]

Rain has eased here from what has been hours of persistent moderate rainfall though radar shows more rain to the SW. Also some quite heavy rainfall in the NW. I'm just curious as to why this thread has 'Wednesday's Storm' in the title, you'd think a hurricane was on it's way

Certainly not stormy. Light winds Light to moderate rain at times not a good day but a storm no way.

[Cheese Rice]

Bit too much hype me thinks from the meto and there warnings, the warnings appeared to have dissapeared for North West areas, although West Yorkshire is still in the warning its mostly been continously light and moderate at time rain. Have had 2 heavy downpours which last no longer than 10 minutes. Although the beeb graphics show some very heavy ppn over Yorkshire at 6pm so who knows.

[A.J]

There's an interesting little squall line type feature developing over Lancashire currently, running along the western edge of this front...Some very bright radar returns and the odd sferic....As for here, 17mm of rain since 8am, a throughly miserable day!

[IanR]

I heard a grand total of one rumble of thunder about half an hour ago,so that was 'wednesdays storm' then.

[sunny scunny]

I heard a grand total of one rumble of thunder about half an hour ago,so that was 'wednesdays storm' then.

The only thing rumbling here is my stomach In the last hour the rain has eased to light/moderate.

plenty more to come looking at the radar though.

[Andy Bown]

Andy If you want to see a picture have a look at the thread below

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=31775&posts=18&start=1

Although If he is the BBC Presenter that said this was a FC/Tornado/Waterspout then he needs to be shot - Nothing more than a Rainshaft out to sea.

Thanks for the link Paul. Yes, the regular forecaster Richard Angwin showed his colleague's photo & explained all about funnel clouds/tornadoes & waterspouts while stating that the image showed a waterspout over the Bristol Channel.

Is it actually a rain shaft then? Quite some downpour (microburst?) if so. I haven't seen any video

Ironically, I recall from the Westbury tornado on 24 October 2001 that the same forecaster said on BBC Points West that evening it was more likely to have been a microburst I and others witnessed!

[Harry]

Andy If you want to see a picture have a look at the thread below

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=31775&posts=18&start=1

Although If he is the BBC Presenter that said this was a FC/Tornado/Waterspout then he needs to be shot - Nothing more than a Rainshaft out to sea.

Consensus on UKweatherworld and certainly from PS is that this is a rainshaft - if I was a betting man I'd say waterspout, purely because there appears to be disturbance on the sea directly below it (see the spray directly below). Furthermore, the flow of weather appears to be going right to left - unless there was a strong wind blowing in the opposite direction (left to right), or indeed a form of rapid downdraught/microburst, I cant see how the rainshaft would veer so far to the right. The presence of the jet and some LL sheer over S UK would lead me to expect some kind of funnels today also. .....oh I don't know, I am just guessing and playing devil's advocate

The rain just leaving France appears to have pepped up some what, so may be a soggy evening here in the next few hours one expects.

Couple of interesting looking downpours across N Ireland and SW Scotland too atm

Edited July 29, 2009 by Harry

[The PIT]

Looks all further south and east than expected and much less intense away from the South West. Already beginning to move away east so the day of doom is going to be a day of what????

[Paul Sherman]

Aha

So in that case I am tripling my Tornado count to 72 from 24 then if all "Rain Shafts" count as Tornadoes.

At the time this was perceived to be a Tornado the cloud was Stratiform, there was no Convection within 50 Miles just dynamic Rainfall.

Tell you what just for fun later on will post some Rainshaft pictures and other Tornado Wanabee pictures and see if you can make out the real mccoys and the Imposters.

In fact I will start a thread on this later as this Topic is pretty interesting.

Paul S

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

13mm so far today. Max of around 16C