Convective Discussion

[Jane Louise]

Sorry if I contributed to getting your hopes up with my constant optimism for today and the chance for storms Seems I got my hopes up to. Gotta say though, you have been incredibly unlucky this year to get NO storms. Am I right on that one? If I am then that is such a shame, really. I've never gone one year without a storm, don't think it'll ever happen either. I suppose I can always say I got 2 decent storms this year, but for others, that's not the case.

Not to worry weather09 I even thought something would happen today.

Yes, very unlucky this year, but I'm thinking maybe September might bring one lol but I doubt it

Aww, sorry JL.

Tis ok chris, I have September on my mind now Lol

[Harry]

This has to go down as one of the most dismal August's on record for storms

[Roger J Smith]

Maybe Sunday for your part of the country, Jane Louise.

The general set-up looks promising for Wales and the west Midlands, Severn valley.

Then we have the remnants of Bill to consider on perhaps Wednesday, the details for that will come into focus about Monday possibly, as this will be a fast-moving system subject to low confidence levels until we see where the frontal wave is actually tracking.

[Costa Del Fal]

Fianlly had a heavyish shower not long back!

[Harry]

ARRRRRGGHHHHH!!!! Look at GFS for Monday into Tuesday!! Is it too much to ask that the Cold Front stalls a bit longer... storm risk surges up France towards our shores, before skimming past...CAPE/LI ever so slightly increases just before the CF skips through, taking it all towards our mates in the low countries again!!

My eyes will be rooted to see the front pans out - at the moment a wave is expected to develop as it temporarily stalls - the CF sticks a bit further West and we have a full on import opportunity. If it goes how is planned atm, or moves through quicker - little or no hope!!

For what has been an abysmal August, the great MN could throw us a positive curve ball here and lift our spirits

[Costa Del Fal]

Maybe Sunday for your part of the country, Jane Louise.

The general set-up looks promising for Wales and the west Midlands, Severn valley.

Then we have the remnants of Bill to consider on perhaps Wednesday, the details for that will come into focus about Monday possibly, as this will be a fast-moving system subject to low confidence levels until we see where the frontal wave is actually tracking.

I cant see how sunday looks good for here?

[Ross B]

A heavy shower has just developed here and is forming quite a nice gust front. Sferics shown on the radar but i don't think they are from this cell though...

[Harry]

Had a beatiful tower shoot up around these parts in the last 45 mins - seems to be throwing out some quite heavy rain at the moment - minimal to zero chance of any thunder though. The tower did contain an extensive, and to an extent quite awesome pileus cap - perhaps the most vivid I've seen so far this year

As for storm potential for the end of the weekend, I do think there is a slim chance at this stage. Certainly Monday night into Tuesday, on the BBC graphics showing up also, some precip coming out of France, across the far SE. This ties in well with the nice CAPE values and storm risk, so perhaps a low risk of an MCS type feature. Though, as both myself and Weather09 have said, this is very "oooh, eeeer, possibly, maybe" scenario. Worth keeping a close eye on it though (SE'rners at this stage anyway). The CF pushes slightly further E than expected, and it will be nothing!

Watch this space....

Edited August 21, 2009 by Harry

[Jane Louise]

Maybe Sunday for your part of the country, Jane Louise.

The general set-up looks promising for Wales and the west Midlands, Severn valley.

Then we have the remnants of Bill to consider on perhaps Wednesday, the details for that will come into focus about Monday possibly, as this will be a fast-moving system subject to low confidence levels until we see where the frontal wave is actually tracking.

Thanks Roger,

will keep my eye on the charts for the next couple of days

Had a beatiful tower shoot up around these parts in the last 45 mins - seems to be throwing out some quite heavy rain at the moment - minimal to zero chance of any thunder though. The tower did contain an extensive, and to an extent quite awesome pileus cap - perhaps the most vivid I've seen so far this year

As for storm potential for the end of the weekend, I do think there is a slim chance at this stage. Certainly Monday night into Tuesday, on the BBC graphics showing up also, some precip coming out of France, across the far SE. This ties in well with the nice CAPE values and storm risk, so perhaps a low risk of an MCS type feature. Though, as both myself and Weather09 have said, this is very "oooh, eeeer, possibly, maybe" scenario. Worth keeping a close eye on it though (SE'rners at this stage anyway). The CF pushes slightly further E than expected, and it will be nothing!

Watch this space....

Good luck Harry

[Mike Storm]

Had an torential shower just as I was about to fly today down at Rochester .... my instructor decided I be best to wait till Monday...

[Neilsouth]

What a really naff day for storms! , FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD... Blah blah :|

[maidstone weather]

What a really naff day for storms! , FRIDAY LOOKS GOOD... Blah blah :|

Neil, I wasn't even expecting anything for Kent, so to get 1.6mm from a couple of heavy showers was a bonus

[Neilsouth]

Neil, I wasn't even expecting anything for Kent, so to get 1.6mm from a couple of heavy showers was a bonus

It wasn't just here but most of england , just the odd weak fart ts! lol

[Rob]

had 2.1mm of rain today at around 4pm, no thunder unfortunately but definately convective rainfall

[maidstone weather]

It wasn't just here but most of england , just the odd weak fart ts! lol

true - rather oddly most of the storms were in the morning, with decaying activity in the afternoon Until of course it left the mainland and an explosion of storms over the North Sea as per usual!!

[Rob]

could do with a good storm this evening, is very humid here.

[maidstone weather]

0z isn't too bad for Monday night, it's a step in the right direction anyway in stalling this cold front, we still need it further west really but we can't have everything we want I guess!

[Harry]

0z isn't too bad for Monday night, it's a step in the right direction anyway in stalling this cold front, we still need it further west really but we can't have everything we want I guess!

Lol indeed - the cold front where it is isn't too bad for the SE I guess! It all depends on whether we get any 'pulses of energy' running up it as it runs over us. Indications suggest that thunderstorms may trigger over France and then run along the front towards us - two things though:

1. I have NO concept of what this business is with 'pulses of energy' - you hear the forecasters say it a lot, in particular Dan Corbett! I get that it is 'energy' providing areas of far heavier rain, but where it comes from and why it doesn't happen all the way along the front...??

2. This 'pulse of energy' event always seems to happen further W, meaning that we very rarely see much in this type of set up, unless thunderstorms develop ahead of the front and run our way.

Just a side note - remains of Hurricane Bill now showing up on the FAX chart - could someone possibly clarify what 'EX BILL' means - is it simply saying that it is Ex Hurricane Bill, or is it stating that at that stage on Tues it is Extra Tropical...the two being very different matters

[ANYWEATHER]

Just a side note - remains of Hurricane Bill now showing up on the FAX chart - could someone possibly clarify what 'EX BILL' means - is it simply saying that it is Ex Hurricane Bill, or is it stating that at that stage on Tues it is Extra Tropical...the two being very different matters

Hi Harry...I think it simply means it is an ex hurricane [in the former context so to speak!] and is not an extra tropical storm...Thats my understanding of it anyway! Best Wishes Ian. Ps will still be good to see where xBill does end up ,models have no real idea at the moment!

[Harry]

Each GFS run has been slightly improving chances for many C and E areas on Monday!

Edited August 22, 2009 by Harry

[maidstone weather]

Trough is back on and tantalisingly close!

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVI89.png

Nice to see Ex Bill still on the same chart too

[Noctilucid]

I'm afraid to me it just looks like a repeat of Thursday.

[Coast]

I'm keeping schtoom about tomorrow into Tuesday until the morning, even though GFS has had it highlighted since the beginning of the month:

1) The models also had last Thursday highlighted in a similar way

2) A lot of very clever people spend a lot of money annually to produce, investigate and forecast data from some of the most sophisticated computers and satellites and they seem to be having about as much success this Summer as I do with the pine cones and seaweed.

Something is wrong this year (i.e. the 'lost Summer'?) and I'm not sure if it was the jet taking an early holiday in Spain or some other atmospheric malarkey but these things don't seem to be panning out even close to expectations. Either that or I'm getting impatient and not reading the weather situation correctly?

[Harry]

I'm keeping schtoom about tomorrow into Tuesday until the morning, even though GFS has had it highlighted since the beginning of the month:

1) The models also had last Thursday highlighted in a similar way

2) A lot of very clever people spend a lot of money annually to produce, investigate and forecast data from some of the most sophisticated computers and satellites and they seem to be having about as much success this Summer as I do with the pine cones and seaweed.

Something is wrong this year (i.e. the 'lost Summer'?) and I'm not sure if it was the jet taking an early holiday in Spain or some other atmospheric malarkey but these things don't seem to be panning out even close to expectations. Either that or I'm getting impatient and not reading the weather situation correctly? :lol:

Nope - you are spot on Coast - do you know how I know this? Because there have been one or two comments saying "Oh, the MetO got that right - pat on the back to them"...this alone proves their success rate is poor!! It is true though - any idiot can forecast sunny/fine weather, similarly many can forecast cloud. The tough bits, i.e 'severe' weather, the MetO are in limbo. Whether this is because they have a lack of expertise, or something else, I cannot speculate on this because I don't know -

What I do know, is that the charts this summer have been the most complex I have seen in the last 4 years of covorting on this forum! Gone are the days with the one single centre of LP over the Atlantic, one single area of HP to our East, with storms coming up on a plume attached to a thundery low. For some reason now, there are 3, 4 or 5 areas of Low pressure all moving around us at the same time, all with their own fronts, troughs, airmasses etc.

I wouldnt say 'Lost summer' - truncated summer defintely (speaking for the SE here). This weekend, like the previous 5 without break, are sunny, warm (arguably hot today), almost perfect summer weather. Because they havent been in a two, three week succession without break, we think 'naff summer'. IMO this has been a very good summer overall!!

Just waiting for the GFS to finish updating...tick tock lol

Edit - Based on those charts, I cak kiss the chance of the a storm goodbye! Is interesting to see though, the CF rattles in from the W initiating its own CAPE, the warmer humid air instigating CAPE rattles up from the S! I think if we were on the more favourable end of 'timing' we could have got, or get, big storms. As it stands, booo!!

Edited August 23, 2009 by Harry

[Harry]

Interesting forecast developing now for tomorrow...one of which that is so hesitant from both the BBC and MetO it fills me with the confidence I've had most of the Spring/Summer - little or none!!

MetO and BBC mentioning the risk of scattered thunderstorms across the SE, in particular the Midlands and EA. Both the MetO and BBC seemingly differing on where any risk will be - BBC going with Midlands and possibly EA, while MetO covering a wider area, incorporating the SE

My hunch at this stage is that any risk of thunderstorms will be across the Midlands and EA, while the SE will get slim pickings. I think it will also be heavily dependant on surface heating - while the warm and humid airmass will still be around for much of the day tomorrow, there is a lack of confidence if and how much the cloud associated with the front will break up. CAPE/LI should be present too!

I am still very keen on the timing of the weather front too...if the CF goes slower than predicted I think there is a very real possibility of imports across the SE. There seems be little indication of this happening at this stage, but it has happened so frequently this summer.....and thunderstorms are expected to readily develop across France throughout tomorrow afternoon resulting from a very unstable airmass...

Could be an interesting couple of GFS runs into tonight and early tomorrow!!

UPDATE - There is an extensive trough running down the spine of the country through tomorrow morning towards lunchtime.

Also, what are the fronts on the FAX chart, with the blanked out CF triangles?

Edited August 23, 2009 by Harry