Convective Discussion

[dogs32]

Not many storms around today. Sorry, Harry and Pat I really thought they would happen.

better chance tomorrow for us we hope

[Neilsouth]

Holy!!!!!!!

Look at that front explode over the low countries

[Harry]

Holy!!!!!!!

Look at that front explode over the low countries

Yes look at the front indeed - shame it didn't do that over us!!

[maidstone weather]

Yes look at the front indeed - shame it didn't do that over us!!

all I remember was a few spots of light rain around 12:30 whilst driving back from getting my A Level results

Even Norway is doing well from plume storms this year!

Edited August 20, 2009 by maidstone weather

[Jane Louise]

I am trying not to bank my hopes up, but after looking at the storm risk for my area tomorrow I have a 51% Yay lol ( now, how many times have I said that )

[Costa Del Fal]

Well if the GFS is going to be right then im looking forward to tomorrow. There was some very good convection here earlier.

I think the Midlands could do quite well though showers/storms will pass through quickly. Wales could be a breeding ground tomorrow i feel with perhaps the West Midlands and North West England, SW England perhaps doing best though the showers/storms may make it over to the East at times.

Tomorrow will probably be one of the best days of the month for storms unless something dramatic happens!

Here desperately needs one now! Nothing proper since 29th June!

Overall it think Wales will perhaps see the most frequent of showers particularly early on but Storms will probably be most found (if any!) towards East Wales, West Midlands,parts of SW England and perhaps parts of NW England.

Edited August 20, 2009 by Blizzards

[Costa Del Fal]

The lapse rates are super for tomorrow. 29 is about the highest ive seen this year when ive looked at the charts. That trough could really give things a boost. I think overall the West Midlands and parts of Wales has the best chance tomorrow but NW England and maybe northern parts of SW England too not out of the risk.

[Costa Del Fal]

They are indeed impressive, that's why I especially like May for thunderstorms, cold upper temps and increasing strength in sunshine brings some decent storms. The highest I've seen this year were around 30-31C in April. I am hoping tomorrow provides something interesting, last August did for here with an amazing hailstorm!!

At the moment it looks as if NWern regions could have the best chance of showers/storms and then they'll progress quite quickly Eastwards. Though W Mids and Wales both stand a good chance aswell.

Winds will be a bit lighter than today so i dont think showers will move as quickly as they have today (not that we had any here but if they were you know what i mean. )

[gpspete]

look what holland & belgium are getting now what may have been for us http://www.strikesta.../sslt/sslt.html and look at my lightning page a bit out on distance but right direction http://www.bicesterw...uk/StormVue.php

Edited August 20, 2009 by gpspete

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Indeed, and such a contrast to us, not so very far away, under clear skies at a breezy but lovely dusk.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, they were just starting to sprout up as they passed over Norwich, and they were classic "altocumulus castellanus" formations- skies like those are often the precursor to major thunderstorms as they indicate very vigorous instability.

[Costa Del Fal]

As expected, Estofex have resized the storm risk area to now exclude nearly all of Scotland, though quite surprisingly, they've included most Sern counties and the SE aswell. I think that generally, areas North of a line from the SW to Sern EA have the best chance of seeing storms given the CAPE and steep lapses. That's my take on it anyway.

I like the way they say we are in for an 'active day'. B)

[Jane Louise]

I like the way they say we are in for an 'active day'.

I second that But you will be the one who gets a storm Blizzards, but me, I will get nothing

[Costa Del Fal]

I second that But you will be the one who gets a storm Blizzards, but me, I will get nothing

No since the end of july we have had no luck with everything missing us by short distances again. B)

A game of wait and see and radar watching!

[Harry]

Some of the posts seem to suggest keeping storms away from the S and SE - that's fine though am sensing some slight glee in that prognosis, lol

I think the SE has a good shot also. There is some CAPE around, but also the trough is expected to rattle across S'ern areas, along with the Midlands/Wales and Co! With a bit of fortune, you'll all see some gorgeous looking Cb's and Anvils, with the produce game for Londinium!! ...if only!!

Still got my eyes on the end of the weekend - temperatures already hinting at returning to the upper 20s, if only for a short space of time! Always nice to have a plume of some description incoming! Just fingers crossed for a change in the up and coming FAX charts, which suggests kicking the CF back for longer (have a butchers!)

No since the end of july we have had no luck with everything missing us by short distances again.

A game of wait and see and radar watching!

Precisely, radar watching and sod all work being done, lol!! Naughty Harry...but I cant help it B)

Edited August 20, 2009 by Harry

[Costa Del Fal]

Some of the posts seem to suggest keeping storms away from the S and SE - that's fine though am sensing some slight glee in that prognosis, lol

I think the SE has a good shot also. There is some CAPE around, but also the trough is expected to rattle across S'ern areas, along with the Midlands/Wales and Co! With a bit of fortune, you'll all see some gorgeous looking Cb's and Anvils, with the produce game for Londinium!! ...if only!!

Still got my eyes on the end of the weekend - temperatures already hinting at returning to the upper 20s, if only for a short space of time! Always nice to have a plume of some description incoming! Just fingers crossed for a change in the up and coming FAX charts, which suggests kicking the CF back for longer (have a butchers!)

Precisely, radar watching and sod all work being done, lol!! Naughty Harry...but I cant help it B)

Lol tomorrow doesnt bother me as im on holidays at the moment. Been helping/working all week anyway and tomorrow is a rest day for a change and on cue too for any storms!

[maidstone weather]

It's troughs galore on Tuesday: http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVO89.png B)

Monday is interesting - where and when does this trough over Belgium develop I wonder?

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVM89.png

[Harry]

It's troughs galore on Tuesday: http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVO89.png B)

Monday is interesting - where and when does this trough over Belgium develop I wonder?

http://212.100.247.145/fax/PPVM89.png

Ooh nice - that Mon FAX chart is already showing signs of the CF stalling - keeping the very warm and humid air mass over the SE!!

And yes indeed - where does that Belgian Truff(le) come from...sorry, I'll get my coat like the many before me, lol

[Neilsouth]

According to bbc/met no storms over south east , they push north west into ea

[Geordiesnow]

Should be an interesting day tomorrow for most parts of the UK but as often the case some areas will miss out on the showers all together(this area being one of them it would seem) whilst others will have frequent showers.

Not to sure if they will be thundery though, i think it will be an interesting day if there is no spoilers affecting the weather tomorrow morning eg Unexpected high cloud limiting convection slightly for example.

[dogs32]

Estofex have a warning for most of Uk

[Jane Louise]

Morning all,

rather cloudy here at the moment.Hope something sparks off today!

Staveron airport reckon:

Probability 30% :

Temporary

from 21 at 07 UTC to 21 at 15 UTC

Visibility 4000 m

thunderstorm hail

http://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/united-kingdom-ireland.php?icao=EGBJ

But many a times they've said this,but who knows!!

[Stuart]

will i see storm today i dont think so

Humidity:76%

Dew Point: 7.6°C

Edited August 21, 2009 by Stuart

[Ross B]

Never say never stu, or are you using reverse psychology?

I've seen a few CB's already this morning on my way into work so we will just have to wait and see i guess, we are right on the edge of the Estofex storm risk line.

I'm more worried about flooding, especially after yesterdays downpours and yet more severe weather warnings for sunday!

[SteveB]

Radar picking up some strikes from the lump of rain in South Wales.