Convective Discussion

[A.J]

I thought I'd pop my head around the door and say 'hello'....havent posted much here recently because there hasnt been much to post about! Its been the quietest August I've ever known!....Anyhoos, GFS12z is still showing a high risk of storms tantilisingly close to the SE overnight tonight, plenty of Lift and energy available over NE France/Belguim, so still an outside chance of a decent light display for those on the SE coast!....As for my neck of the woods, chance of some heavy rain towards dawn tomorrow with the outside chance of an embedded thunderstorm, not holding up my hopes too much though....Still, worth keeping an eye on the 18z run

[Harry]

may sound daft, but I'm not giving up till the day has ended

You're right it is daft, but I like the thinking nonetheless

Reality is (not expectation btw) with the weather, anything could happen. With a front racing in, you could get a trough appear, an unexpected thundery low start to develop, CZ, anything...as I say, this is certainly not expectation, merely an appreciation of mother nature's willingness to cause surprises (be it good or bad ones)

I really wouldn't be surprised if the Kent coast sees something (maybe even hear something) in the very early hours, otherwise though I think this is another hot spell to end in discontent.

On the plus side, MetO long range forecast is for a similar scheme of weather to persist - Low to the NW, High towards the South. This should in theory keep the warm air present (be it SW/S/W flow) and maybe even permit other mini plume events along the way. Again, this the MetO long range (fortnightly) so not expecting miracles lol

A brief side note, what is it with the irritating LPs this year? More often than not this year, the LPs out to our West have been orientated as to provide a SSW flow, such that warm/humid air moves up particularly across the SE quarter, but at the same time pushes any thundery activity from France into Benelux? Whatever happened to the LP systems to our W being orientated such that it pumps hot/humid air straight up out of France at us, along with the thunder?? I know it's a lot to do with the continental and Azores High's "Blocking", but nevertheless I will blame the Lows, lol

Edited August 19, 2009 by Harry

[Costa Del Fal]

Almost cloudless here now and still hot. 28c maximum today. Simply beautiful weather and probably one of the best days of the summer.

[Harry]

'Today's weather and general chat' thread perhaps? Just a thought But you're right..beautiful weather!!

To be fair Weather09, it takes our mind of the lack of convection...

[Geordiesnow]

Clouds have been dark around here at times during today but apart from a bit of rain this afternoon/evening, nothing to get excited about.

[Phil UK]

Nice, warm and sunny today. (25ºc)

But I agree with the general concensus as regarding the lack of any storms 'forecast' tomorrow. Only best chance would be embedded cells along the main CF as it moves east.

All may not be lost however as come next week, and this does depend on the track of Hurricane Bill which, if heads towards Europe will be nothing more than a deep LP. But with these situations, there usually follows plenty of humid air so maybe, just maybe, it's not over yet.

That said, too early to predict what the track and outcome may be as yet.

Phil.

[maidstone weather]

Don't see what the interest in tomorrow is anyway, unless you're living in Ireland, Scotland or perhaps Wern Wales,

that is actually almost half of the UK! So quite a few people I would imagine would be 'interested'

Shame nothing happened today - but the fat lady hasn't sung yet! :wacko:

[Costa Del Fal]

Ah, right on time! Estofex have issued an extended forecast for Friday and includes virtually the whole of the UK in the storm risk area, though I would expect them to tighten it up a little, closer to the time. GFS continuing with the reasonable CAPE values and cooler mid level temps, thus promoting convection. Hard to say where the best chance will be for thundery showers/thunderstorms at this stage but with the wind direction and the trough positioning over England, could well be that SEern and Eern regions fair best.

Though as I say, too early to tell. But at least there's something to watch over further model runs!

I agree weather09. The GFS Keeps much of the Precip towards the West on Friday. Other good things include excellent Lapse Rates and really good TT Index.

Edited August 19, 2009 by Blizzards

[dogs32]

yes the presenter this morning said that there will be heavy shower's across the Uk for Friday after the heavy rain up North..

So just a maybe

[maidstone weather]

looks like a storm in the eastern Channel just left the French coastline

Probably too far east though, but at least something did develop in the end!

Edit: it's current track looks like it may hit areas east of Ashford.

Edited August 20, 2009 by maidstone weather

[maidstone weather]

Still on a track for East Kent! (as always)

[Harry]

Still on a track for East Kent! (as always)

Just an observation - stack loads of ACas over London this morning on the way in, and lots of other more general Ac too.

Surprised its a bright and sunny as it is - thought we'd be waking to a lot of cloud.

What is the possibility, that should the sun stay out long enough and get to warming, that showers/storms could develop a bit later? They were saying showers for the Home Counties on the radio this morning (though not London strangely enough!). Estofex forecast for today is harsh, though expected - it just bends all the way around the UK, keeping action continent side.

Tomorrow looking more interesting though.

Still on a track for East Kent! (as always)

Have to say, at present it looks no more interesting than a normal rain shower on radar MW.

Edited August 20, 2009 by Harry

[Coast]

So the ESTOFEX forecast is extended up until 6.00hrs tomorrow and UKASF have almost the same area highlighted (albeit until 11.59 hrs tonight)and the text:

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-08-19 19:57:00

Valid: 2009-08-20 00:00:00 - 2009-08-20 23:59:00

Regions Affected

Northern Ireland, Ireland, W + S Scotland, NW England, northwest Wales ( all of Scotland, Northern England and extreme SE England are included in the WATCH )

Synopsis

A complex area of LOW pressure between Scotland and Iceland, and a large area of HIGH pressure over the continent will dominate the weather across the United Kingdom on Thursday. Numerous showers, some thundery, are expected to develop in the airmass behind the cold front. The winds will be fairly brisk and gusty, ensuring the risk of flash flooding remains minimal as a result of fast-moving showers. However, recent heavy rainfall, particularly across parts of Ireland and Scotland, could increase the chance of local flooding should any showers become frequent and torrential. Showers/storms are expected to decrease in number during the evening hours, though will persist in places overnight. There is also a chance of a few pre-frontal showers during the first part of the morning across East Anglia/Southeast England. There is a risk of a thunderstorm here between 00z-09z, but cloud heights may limit this chance. Beyond midday storms here seem very unlikely. There is also a moderate risk along the cold front itself of a funnel or tornado given the favourable conditions expected.

Nothing form TORRO this morning but an interesting twist on the ESTOFEX and UKASF maps from 21st OWS with some areas in the East covered:

and some others:

However, if you are reading this in the low countries bordering Germany.........

[maidstone weather]

Have to say, at present it looks no more interesting than a normal rain shower on radar MW.

Indeed - but it's a storm nontheless!

who needs heavy rain, if it's got a lot of lightning with it B)

Look at those strikes lining up : http://andvari.vedur...ganir/eldingar/

Might take a trip to Canterbury on the way to picking up my A Level results?

Edited August 20, 2009 by maidstone weather

[CardiffStorm]

Im feeling optimistic today, might get a few small storms. Some sferics already in Northern England.

However, think i might be too drunk to chase after getting my A level results.

[Coast]

In the hour I've been in work the sky has gone from clear blue with warm sunshine to completely black and I've had to put the light on! Seagulls are going nuts, but there's nothing significant on the radar for this part of the world

[maidstone weather]

Indeed - but it's a storm nontheless!

who needs heavy rain, if it's got a lot of lightning with it B)

Look at those strikes lining up : http://andvari.vedur...ganir/eldingar/

looks like it's died!

[Noctilucid]

Looking at radar, sat and out my window, I would guess there are a few shortwave troughs/ disturbances in the area, incredible AltCas displays and signs of something more substantial in the distance to my South, its going to be close as to wether it'll be any good or not (rather like my results), as the cold front is making rapid progress.

[Neilsouth]

Huge anvil to the east , towards ramsgate...

Not doing anything though

[maidstone weather]

interesting radar, at least 3 straight N-S lines of precip over the west and another 2 developing over the SE and Channel.

[Noctilucid]

Westerly change just shoved through here a bit sooner than I expected, its amazing how it can go from humid and hazy with AltCas to cool and breezy with low cloud in such a short time. Not looking good for storms, until tomorrow when low pressure may bring plenty.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Oh have I missed it! LOL. I thought it was for tonight! HAHAHAHAA. Oh well ...

[Coast]

I've kind of written today off (for my corner of the World) and I'm not over confident about tomorrow here either. However, someone might just get a storm tomorrow from lunchtime onwards.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Storm report - crashing thunder at 11.08, another crash a few minutes later and a few more rumbles associated with a short but sharp shower.

Edited August 20, 2009 by chrisbell0033944

[Coast]

Storm report - crashing thunder at 11.08, another crash a few minutes later and a few more rumbles associated with a short but sharp shower.

Where's Mr Sherman and his tripod + camera then???