Convective Discussion

[Coast]

ESTOFEX have a warning for most of UK

Unfortunately that ran out at 0600 hrs and has not been updated, worth keeping an eye on this morning to see what they think!

So what does today hold for us then? - the mist is slowly clearing........

Only one of the sites with an updated forecast so far is the UKASF with:

Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-08-20 21:53:00

Valid: 2009-08-21 00:00:00 - 2009-08-21 23:59:00

Regions Affected

Most of UK & Ireland ( excluding the far SW/S England, NW Highlands and western Ireland, which are however included in the WATCH )

Synopsis

A complex area of LOW pressure over the United Kingdom will dominate the weather on Friday. Numerous daytime showers and thunderstorms are expected quite widely across the UK, as a result of convergence zones and troughs embedded within the westerly flow, with the most frequent showers/storms across western areas. Current thinking is that Wales - Midlands - East Anglia appears to be the most favoured regions that exhibit the best potential for thunderstorms between 11z-20z, before these move into the southern North Sea and Holland during the late evening and overnight. The showers/storms will pose a risk of hail and gusty winds, though the risk of a funnel is somewhat limited. Any showers/storms that do develop should decay rapidly during the evening hours, with the exception of East Anglia until ~21z. The storm risk over southern and southwestern areas is somewhat limited by slightly limited cloud heights, most likely due to an area of HIGH pressure building over Biscay.

Not everyone goes along with that:

But then, not even aviation weather sites can't agree!

Models remaining much as they have been for the last few days:

So who knows what today will bring, I don't!!

Edited August 21, 2009 by Coast

[Jane Louise]

Thanks Coast.

Well the cloud has almost cleared here now and I can see lovely blue sky with some sunshine.

I agree with Coast, as to who knows what today will bring? I think noone does and I guess it will be hit and miss on whoever gets a storm!

[Harry]

Thanks Coast.

Well the cloud has almost cleared here now and I can see lovely blue sky with some sunshine.

I agree with Coast, as to who knows what today will bring? I think noone does and I guess it will be hit and miss on whoever gets a storm!

We have beautifully blue skies here at the moment - warming up nicely!!

Just a shame most of the models agree on the fact the SE will get at best a rogue shower, with little hope of anything thundery!! Two London radio stations forecast showers, but that's the best of it!!

I have a gut feeling we'll be lucky to get a shower, let alone thunderstorm, lol

[Coast]

If I had to take a punt I'd agree with Harry for the SE I'm afraid. I suspect Jane Louise will get something passing through heading East later but who (or even if) will get thunderstorms is up in the air today - quite literally!!

[dogs32]

A row of very heavy shower's about to hit here.

No sferic's spotted yet around here

[maidstone weather]

something interesting occurring along the south Sussex/Kent coast at the moment.

[Harry]

Could be a fun day then!

something interesting occurring along the south Sussex/Kent coast at the moment.

You probably won't see a clearer example of a sea breeze CZ than that!! (I think, lol)

Edited August 21, 2009 by Harry

[liamcymro]

Had some nice convection yesterday, clouds shooted up by mid-morning - then by early-afternoon we had torrential rain, gusty winds and was hoping for our 1st thunderstorm of the year but we got nothing...Today perhaps? I've got some pictures from yesterday's showers / Cumulonimbus / Mammatus

[Harry]

Noting the line of heavy downpours stretching down the spine of Cornwall/Devon.

On present path, this line could well run over London later this afternoon! While London/SE may not be hot favourites for T'storm/shower development, a 'tail end Charlie' is always feasible (I hope I use that expression correctly!)

[Jane Louise]

Thunder reported in Bristol. I am also hearing sferics on my radio every now and then!

[Coast]

something interesting occurring along the south Sussex/Kent coast at the moment.

Unfortunately it's not reflected in my current view of the sky down here

On present path, this line could well run over London later this afternoon! While London/SE may not be hot favourites for T'storm/shower development, a 'tail end Charlie' is always feasible

I think I'm too far South here on the Coast - just a hunch!

Quite amazed at the GFS's accuracy and consistency with regards to today's storm potential, has picked up on this since Tue, or perhaps Monday.

The trend was even further back than that, when today was FI!

Thunder reported in Bristol. I am also hearing sferics on my radio every now and then!

Today, you are the 'chosen one' JL!!!!

[SteveB]

Nasty looking cell to the North East of Bristol.

Seems to be a good line of showers coming through, it's just going to be a case of whether we will be lucky enough to catch 1 or 2 of them.

[Jane Louise]

Today, you are the 'chosen one' JL!!!!

I hope I am the chosen one LOL

Judging by the radar it seems the heavy rain and storms are on there way to Oxford Missing me again grrrrr.

I'm still hearing my radio crackle lol

[maidstone weather]

Today, you are the 'chosen one' JL!!!!

I hope I am the chosen one LOL

Judging by the radar it seems the heavy rain and storms are on there way to Oxford Missing me again grrrrr.

I'm still hearing my radio crackle lol

crackle, or cackle?

Nice line of showers to my SE, but just like you JL they've missed me!

[*AL*]

There is a storm moving NE just crossing the northern area just north of Swindon.I can hear the odd rubble and will possibly clip Oxford.Anyone in that area? Wind has now picked up and is starting to rain.

[Jane Louise]

crackle, or cackle?

Nice line of showers to my SE, but just like you JL they've missed me!

Crackle I think LOL

Always misses me But we mustn't give up hope yet.

[sunny scunny]

Typical,the raintoday radar has stopped working when i wanted to check it

[maidstone weather]

so much for the Met Office's 'light showers'

Still dry here, but some nice convection from that same line now to my east

[Kent Snow]

A sharp shower just passing through. Nothing too exciting.

[karyo]

An explosion of shewers in the northwest over the last hour. I've already had a downpoor.

I am expecting the downpoors top continue on and off for the next 2-3 hours before it gets a bit drier and sunnier this afternoon.

It also feels rather clilly in the breeze!

Karyo

[Harry]

I really wouldn't look at the 12z CAPE charts and from that rule out the SE entirely! Kent/Surrey/Sussex (Kesurex as I more affectionately know it ) seems to get the raw end of the deal today, BUT the CAPE charts post 12Z do look promising for some afternoon developments, as far south as the Thames Estuary, so N Kent may see something later! Depends also on how far S the trough(s) reach!

I would say while I am at work I have some chance, though admittedly, despite what I think above I doubt I'll see much from home later.

[CardiffStorm]

Very heavy and fairly persistant rain here since about 8:30, roads have flooded but thankfully river levels have been low. No T&L yet though, CAPE only about 550 J/Kg.

Looking at the radar I might get another battering soon.

[Harry]

Further to my previous post, I have attached the radar loop, plus where things appear to be heading at the moment.

Discounting potential increase/decrease in strength, the SE have got some downpours with their/our name on - notably some convective stuff which fired up VERY rapidly in the last 10 mins near IoW (red circle)!

Edited August 21, 2009 by Harry

[valiant]

Slinging it down here and strong, squally winds. A real downpour.

[Methuselah]

Anvils away to the southwest...So, perhaps a rumble??