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Harry

By Harry
in Storms & Severe Weather

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maidstone weather Newbie

maidstone weather

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
Posted

I'm slightly hopeful for tonight, even if it stays off the Kent coast at least something might develop. The signs are good - no mention of anything from the BBC or Met Office, no 'humdingers' from Carol - can only be a good thing!:whistling:

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

... UK, Ireland and Scotland ...

Beneath cold mid-levels,daytime driven thunderstorms are forecast. Shear is too marginal for anything severe, but the potential for augmented LL CAPE release has to be monitored, which dictates the tornado / funnel risk.

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I'm slightly hopeful for tonight, even if it stays off the Kent coast at least something might develop. The signs are good - no mention of anything from the BBC or Met Office, no 'humdingers' from Carol - can only be a good thing!:whistling:

Then keep an eye on this one from the UKASF!

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Storm Forecast Issued: 2009-08-18 21:28:00

Valid: 2009-08-19 00:00:00 - 2009-08-19 23:59:00

Regions Affected

extreme Southeast England ( all of the UK, excluding Outer Hebrides and SW England are including in the WATCH )

Synopsis

A complex area of LOW pressure between Scotland and Iceland, and a large area of HIGH pressure over the continent will dominate the weather across the United Kingdom on Wednesday. Ahead of a cold front, aligned through central Scotland and the Irish Sea at midday Wednesday, a very warm and humid airmass is advected northwards from France. A strong cap appears to be present over France for much of the daylight hours, preventing convection from occurring - however, during the evening hours the pressure gradient over northeast France is expected to slacken, creating a surface LOW to develop. This may cause initially scattered or isolated thunderstorms to develop. There is a risk of one or two of these clipping the extreme southeast corner during the mid-late evening hours - this is uncertain due to disagreement between the models. Later in the night the storms are expected to expand and merge into an MCS-type feature across Benelux and the southern North Sea. These storms pose a risk of supercellular characteristics. Elsewhere, although some heavy and locally torrential pulses of rain are expected to move northeastwards along the cold front, the risk of embedded thunderstorms seems unlikely given rather limited cloud height.

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ASIINWP_20090819_0630.png

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Author
Posted

I have to admit, I am not that optimistic. My only chance of seeing anything I feel is if I take a nice trip down to the coast! I have a caravan in Dymchurch which I have a strong urge to visit at present!

If I don't budge, then with clear skies I am likely to see flashing starry skies...but I think the urge is going to be too great to stay put...Dymchurch, here I come, lol!

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted (edited)

If I don't budge, then with clear skies I am likely to see flashing starry skies...but I think the urge is going to be too great to stay put...Dymchurch, here I come, lol!

If it's going to happen then Dymchurch could be a good place to be. On a clear day I can see down to the the power station at Dungeness from Beachy Head - so if anything does kick off, that's where I will be. However, like you, I am not very optimistic at the moment. The Herstmonceux 12Z soundings may be the pointer to the possibilities later.

Edited by Coast
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Author
Posted (edited)

If it's going to happen then Dymchurch could be a good place to be. On a clear day I can see down to the the power station at Dungeness from Beachy Head - so if anything does kick off, that's where I will be. However, like you, I am not very optimistic at the moment. The Herstmonceux 12Z soundings may be the pointer to the possibilities later.

Indeedy, very curious as to the thoughts of our friend the Herstmonceux sounding, lol :D

Slight problem I fear, is that it is not humid! Not sure when this 30C potential hot and humid air is supposed to arrive. Granted, yes the skies are again blue, the sun is beaming and it is warm - but I'm not feeling the 'storm like' air.

In fact, as I speak it is slightly warmer now, but would I say conducive to storm development, not at all at the moment.

IF ONLY I could take the day off tomorrow - Holland, LIs of -10, CAPE of over 3000!!!!! :lol:

Edited by Harry
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted (edited)

Slight problem I fear, is that it is not humid! Not sure when this 30C potential hot and humid air is supposed to arrive. Granted, yes the skies are again blue, the sun is beaming and it is warm - but I'm not feeling the 'storm like' air.

In fact, as I speak it is slightly warmer now, but would I say conducive to storm development, not at all at the moment.

It's getting there slowly H!

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Maastricht tomorrow lunchtime onwards looks like the place to be!!! :lol:

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What would you give to get over there tomorrow? (or have it wander over us??!!)

Edited by Coast
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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Author
Posted

Latest observations as of 1200 with the MetO say 26C in Gravesend, similar in London.

Having just walked back to the office from a meeting, I can vouch that it is very much still on the increase! I would say we were at least at the 27C-28C mark at the moment.

Humidity is creeping up now also...though I am not sure at the moment it will lead to much!

Is the Herstmonceux 12Z out yet?

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Joey.G Contributor

Joey.G

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, humid & exciting
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

hmmm £50 for last min overnight ferry rides, 3 hours to Dover then 3.5 hours to Venlo on the Belgum Germany border... extremely tempting, wouldnt even miss any work :blink:

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Is the Herstmonceux 12Z out yet?

Not yet :blink:

24.2 DgC in Eastbourne with humidity backing off from this morning at around 61%. DP is a nice healthy 16.9 DgC but that's only a few ingredients in a good storm-cake mix!

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Is the Herstmonceux 12Z out yet?

:blink: You may want to look away at this point......

100232.gif

:lol:

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Quite a brisk breeze here, and, though hot, it's not as humid-feeling today as yesterday, which reduces the "building-up to a storm" feeling. Jim Bacon on Look East at just before 2 pm opting for fizzling CF this evening and only light showers tomorrow. :blink:

Edited by chrisbell0033944
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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

Lol

Dreadful Sounding there Coasty!

So to break the Cap we need a Temperature just a shade under the Record Temperature that was reached in 2003 :blink: :lol:

So lets hope we reach 36.7c :D:D

Might not even take me Camera to the Broads Now!

Well can take some of the kids fishing and the Wildlife I suppose :p

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted

Might not even take me Camera to the Broads Now!

Well can take some of the kids fishing and the Wildlife I suppose :blink:

Seriously, Paul, dependent on which of the Broads and rivers you intend to vist/cruise, do take your camera - you should see wildlife. Also, there are some very picturesque areas. Just don't forget to be safe and make sure you're all wearing lifejackets - there are deep areas and weeds in those Broads.

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

Seriously, Paul, dependent on which of the Broads and rivers you intend to vist/cruise, do take your camera - you should see wildlife. Also, there are some very picturesque areas. Just don't forget to be safe and make sure you're all wearing lifejackets - there are deep areas and weeds in those Broads.

Lol Yeah I know

Been going up there since 1990 (19 years) every Summer (Helps having a Dad that has a 37ft Cruiser) Have photographed Kingfishers, Herons on Nests and even Barn owls swooping across the River Bure over the last few Summers. Am spending Thursday at Horning (On the Bure) Friday at Coltishall (Bure) and Saturday at Salhouse Broad for some Dinghy Fun with the Kids! Some parts of the River Bure that are not Silted up are 12ft deep from the Banks edge!

Just wish the last fews days weather was the next few days as it can be brutal up there with a Northerly Wind!!

Paul S

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted

Lol Yeah I know

Been going up there since 1990 (19 years) every Summer (Helps having a Dad that has a 37ft Cruiser) Have photographed Kingfishers, Herons on Nests and even Barn owls swooping across the River Bure over the last few Summers. Am spending Thursday at Horning (On the Bure) Friday at Coltishall (Bure) and Saturday at Salhouse Broad for some Dinghy Fun with the Kids! Some parts of the River Bure that are not Silted up are 12ft deep from the Banks edge!

Just wish the last fews days weather was the next few days as it can be brutal up there with a Northerly Wind!!

Paul S

Sorry mate - didn't know you were a regular! :whistling::good:

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Author
Posted (edited)

:whistling::good::cray:

That's painful to see that predicition so close :( admittedly, there was never a realistic positive chance of it happening anyway, but now...boo!!

Not looking good tomorrow either, though Friday at this stage providing some hope.

Hot though - like the Med outside, hardly the faintest smudge of white to be seen in the sky! 30C in Kent, about 29C here in C London - and as has been the case so far in August, not the faintest chance of 'reward'

Edited by Harry
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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Hot and sunny here today with any clouds passing through nicely so maximum sunshine and little cloud. 27c too. Very nice. :whistling:

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

26.1 here...

risk is dying down yet again...not dissapointed as Im getting used to it now.

we have snow to look forward to :whistling:

cheap holiday's in Spain at give away prices or Greece for some storm's..

just an idea

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anvilhead Newbie

anvilhead

Posted
  • Location: Cirencester
  • Location: Cirencester
Posted

26.1 here...

risk is dying down yet again...not dissapointed as Im getting used to it now.

we have snow to look forward to :whistling:

cheap holiday's in Spain at give away prices or Greece for some storm's..

just an idea

I'm game Dogs! - fancy some weekend chasing in europe?

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

I'm game Dogs! - fancy some weekend chasing in europe?

I dont wont to sound to pessamistic but to be honest I have given up here,

I think you have to chase them than wait for them..

And to be honest France,Spain or Greece is very cheap to chase.

I would of gone by now myself but I have to sort my money out for the USA trip next year.....But Im working on it for Spain also.

A maybe!!!

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Author
Posted

I'm game Dogs! - fancy some weekend chasing in europe?

We get little explosive storm activity as we are an irritating island with as such a more maritime influence on our weather - fine, I get that.

Sardinia however, whether because they are in the tranquil Med and not at the end of a turbulent ocean (??), seems to buck this idea by producing a MoFo on www.sat24.com at the moment

I am so jealous :whistling:

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Check out the storms over south eastern france! , would love to see that lot

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