September 2009 Cet

[ukmoose]

Here is the chart for September's CET. Quite a few warm predictions at the bottom; not too many cool ones which would seem to fit the recent pattern.

62 12.7C: summer blizzard

63 13.0C: shuggee

26 13.1C: Polar Gael

60 13.1C: AtlanticFlamethrower

14 13.2C: WhiteXmas

18 13.2C: BARRY

32 13.2C: Stu_London

8 13.4C: SteveB

30 13.4C: pjb120

41 13.4 NorthNorfolkWeather

50 13.4 artic fox

24 13.5C: virtualsphere

45 13.5C: Duncan McAlister

3 13.6C: Koppite

52 13.6C: Mr Maunder

57 13.6C: Polar Continental

35 13.7C: Norrance

19 13.8C: BLAST FROM THE PAST

39 13.8C: Terminal Moraine

4 13.9C: fozfoster

36 13.9C: mark bayley

46 13.9C: Megamoonflake

69 13.9C: Timmead late entry 10 P Points

2 14.0C: Gavin P

15 14.0C: mullender83

28 14.0C: Anti-Mild

47 14.0C: Blizzards

53 14.0C: sundog

59 14.0C: fozi999

68 14.0C: StormMad26 late entry 10 P Points

71 14.0C: JACKONE late entry 10 P Points

13 14.1C: NaDamantaSam

27 14.1C: snowmaiden

37 14.1C: cookie

44 14.1C: DAVID SNOW

67 14.1C: Stargazer late entry 10 P Points

7 14.2C: sufc

11 14.2C: adamjones416

21 14.2C: Mr Data

49 14.2C: ukmoose

51 14.2C: damianslaw

55 14.2C: Stratos Ferric

66 14.2C: mk13 late entry 10 P Points

74 14.2C: osmposm late entry 10 P Points

12 14.3C: Pete Tattum

34 14.3C: DR Hosking

64 14.3C: acbrixton

70 14.3C: Don late entry 10 P Points

25 14.4C: The watcher

40 14.4C: stewfox

56 14.4C: phil n.warks

5 14.5C: Tribe3000

16 14.5C: The PIT

42 14.5C: Kentish Man

58 14.5C: Jack Wales

61 14.5C: GRHinPorts

65 14.5C: Thundery wintry showers late entry 10 points P Points

73 14.5C: Snowstorm1 late entry 10 points P Points

6 14.6C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

43 14.6C: reef

38 14.7C: wiganweather.com

31 14.8C: evil monkey

10 14.9C: mike Meehan

33 14.9C: davehsug

17 15.0C: chionomaniac

9 15.2C: Shiny Bottom 1

54 15.4C: Roger J Smith

29 15.8C: Optimus Prime

20 16.0C: Mike W

22 17.0C: Craig Evans

[Harry]

Early/mid part of next week looks like being the start of a fairly lengthy warm, even at times hot spell across the UK!

A lot of the charts seem to be in agreement at the present time, with GFS currently playing for temps of 26C+ - I normally take the GFS prediction and add 2C, so I think we could expect 28C+ by the end of next week

[Stu_London]

My CET forecast to 8th September 2009 - 14.6C

Will update and do a forcast to the 12th when data to the 5th is in.

[TonyH]

14.5c

I have been poor recently!

[SteveB]

Hadley on 14.7c

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Stu_London]

14.6 to the 3rd.

A significant drop likely today after a cool night and temperatures below average today.

[Stu_London]

14.3C to the 4th with another cool night last night

I would expect a further fall today then a slight rise to the 9th.

[Stu_London]

My CET forecast to 8th September 2009 - 14.6C

Will update and do a forcast to the 12th when data to the 5th is in.

Hadley to the 5th - 14.1C

Revised forecast to 8th - 15.1C

New forecast to 12th - 14.7C

[James M]

Oh dammit, forgot twice in a row now, won't bother this month as 6 days worth of penalties isn't really worth it lol, shall have to hope I remember about October.

[Snowyowl9]

After the warmest september on record 2006 at 16.8c the last 2 septembers have been more normal at 13.8c 2007 and 13.5c last year,this year could end up slightly cooler still,wheres WIB or La nina this autumn.

[reef]

Hadley is at 14.2C to the 6th, a small rise on yesterday after it posted a mean of 15.1C.

Tomorrow is looking quite warm, so we could see a bit of a bump upwards.

[Stu_London]

Big jump to 14.6C to the 7th

Another big jump on the cards tomorrow as the minimum for last night was a very high 16.2C

[Gavin P]

Peak for the month looks to be around 15.0 or 15.1, I think? After that we should see several drops through the remainder of the week with cool nights taking us back into the mid to low 14's by the weekend.

After that who knows whats going to happen, but I don't personally think we're looking at an overly warm month, with the CET probably ending up within 1.0c of the average yet again.

[damianslaw]

Peak for the month looks to be around 15.0 or 15.1, I think? After that we should see several drops through the remainder of the week with cool nights taking us back into the mid to low 14's by the weekend.

After that who knows whats going to happen, but I don't personally think we're looking at an overly warm month, with the CET probably ending up within 1.0c of the average yet again.

Yes agreed, I don't foresee a particularly warm September, the next few nights will be quite cool which will help to have an ameliorating effect on the CET. However, it just seems that we are destined at the moment to record month after month of CET values within 1 degree of the average, all preety dull considering..

[Gavin P]

CET rockets up to 15.2!

Is that the biggest one day rise of the year, I wonder?

[Stu_London]

Hadley to the 5th - 14.1C

Revised forecast to 8th - 15.1C

New forecast to 12th - 14.7C

8th came in at 15.2C (forecast 14.6C, then revised to 15.1)

Revised forecast to the 12th 14.8C

New forecast to the 15th 14.6C

One would expect some sort of drop off in the 2nd half of the month, a range of 13.5C to 14.5C would seem the most likely finishing point at this early stage.

Update on the 12th with a new forecast to the 20th.

[Stu_London]

15.1C to the 9th

Yesterday was 14.0C

Last night was 7.4C - coolest since mid June

[Eugene]

September's CET is declining, was 15.1C upto the 8th now 14.8C upto the 10th, just shows you even with warm 850`s aloft in September, HP directly centred over us isn't enough for the CET to rise.

http://climate-uk.com/

[Stu_London]

Hadley to the 10th

14.9C

Another drop today as last night was 7.5C

[Stu_London]

Hadley 14.8C to the 11th

Last night not so cool at 8.2C, probably cool enough for another 0.1C to come off today.

Cloud cover complicates things a little after today.

[Stu_London]

8th came in at 15.2C (forecast 14.6C, then revised to 15.1)

Revised forecast to the 12th 14.8C

New forecast to the 15th 14.6C

One would expect some sort of drop off in the 2nd half of the month, a range of 13.5C to 14.5C would seem the most likely finishing point at this early stage.

Update on the 12th with a new forecast to the 20th.

Hadley to the 12th 14.8C (original forecast 14.7C, revised forecast 14.8C)

Revised forecast to the 15th 14.6C (original forecast 14.6C)

New forecast to the 20th 14.4C

Still expect something in the range of 13.5C to 14.5C as the final figure with preference for the upper end of that range as there are tentative signs of warmer uppers being around near the end of the month

[Stu_London]

Hadley 14.7C to 13th

[Stu_London]

Hadley stands at 14.6C to the 14th

[Stu_London]

14.6C to the 15th

[Stu_London]

I am not expecting that much movement of the CET over the next 7 days, perhaps a drop of 1 or 2 tenths of a degree.

Even if we get a colder end to the month, I don't see us getting to last years figure of 13.5C, although we should finish comfortably below the 10 year running mean (14.7C)

Those who guessed at or within a couple of tenths of 14C should be most happy at this stage.