The Whining Thread

[OldGreggsTundraBoy]

hehe not whing Yet theres -11C WINDCHILL forecast in the SE for next week, but i will be whining if theres any more downgrades on SNOW this year I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad XD

when it says 95% or 100% risk of snow a week ahead, i expect snow because it says 100% propapaility snow rawwhh!!!

[Yozzer]

im not going to attack you.

but you need to lighten up my friend because this is a rare event and its only mid december we still have jan feb to go yet remember last feb well i had snow here on the sunny southcoast did not last long couple of day but overall last winter was cold.

not extreme cold but good enough this year could be even better.

the cold could well stick around ofcoarse it will warm up from time to time but with so much cold bottled up in europe and up north its looking like fingers crossed winter 09/10 could become very exciting indeed.

and thats coming from the numpty that refused to listen to people that know there stuff and i called a mild stormy winter i could well be wrong i am this month.

so cheers up and i agree the model watching and downgrades get me wound up and there are a few that will ignore the good to find the bad that really does wind me up.

Sorry, I thought this was the WHINING THREAD?? If it is, why would PP need to 'lighten up????' Plenty of room for that on the ramping or model moods threads...my friend!

[John Snow]

based upon what data are you making this statement? what downgrade, on what model panels/runs for the SE?

please back up your statements with data.

We are going to get nothing out of the northerly, we never do well with northerlies and the warm sectors look primed for the south, really see little optimism for a snow fest now

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

We are going to get nothing out of the northerly, we never do well with northerlies and the warm sectors look primed for the south, really see little optimism for a snow fest now

Well i replied in the model thread but i agree that this could end up quite borderline for some,hope im wrong but

the North sea modification really might play a bigger part than we think.

Places such as Hull for example right on the coast could see rain,sleet, and wet snow while places 20miles

inland could just see snow.

[winterfreak]

The long range ECM also show the hallmarks of a return to some sort of normal zonality, but the 0z op run was one of the fastest with breaking it down out of all the runs, expect the next run to be a little slower in the breakdown:

http://www.knmi.nl/e...E_06260_NWT.png

Does look like xmas will be something of a washout compared to what could have been, indeed quite a few of the GFS ensembles have a very rapid breakdown...we will see but there is a good sense of general agreement now. Sadly the synoptics we are seeing modelled would strongly suggest we will get a SW airflow as the Scandinavian vortex gets absorbed by the strong Atlantic low and pulls westwards opening up a SW airflow, that set-up also wouldn't be that snowy either...

Alas, i knew this talk of 'winters of old' was just FI......

I'm an optimist but a realist also. I just can't see that cold weather coming. Those in the know say 'don't compare the models 'run-to-run', look for the trend'. The only trend i see is that the cold weather remains maddeningly elusive and will remain so......

I'm more than happy to be proved wrong though.

Edited December 14, 2009 by winterfreak

[weathernewbie]

Well time for another moan! What a HUGE DOWNGRADE!!

Oh my, look at this! It has MILD written all over it! What a downgrade! Wow!!

[Yozzer]

Well time for another moan! What a HUGE DOWNGRADE!!

Oh my, look at this! It has MILD written all over it! What a downgrade! Wow!!

Tee hee. Temps only up to about 25C tho. Will still have some folk on the South Coast reaching for their winter woolies...

[Neilsouth]

The thing is, wasn't the colder airmass coming On Mon/Tue, then Tue/Wed, then Wed/Thu, then Thu/Fri, now it's Fri/Sat? If it gets pushed back any further then the cold spell will be over before the colder airmass arrives!

Yep! , now people are getting excited over the northerly?. Come on people seriously , with this level of uncertainty FI is beyond two days. I'm usually very excited and upbeat with these type of events but with the ukmo even showing a blink and you'll miss it easterly , this is slowly turning into a bitter dry spell.

[Harsh Climate]

BECAUSE the colder airmass was due to arrive on wednesday , then thursday now it's friday!!. Same thin happening with the wind , first it was a bitter strong north easterly , then an easterly then a weak easterly. Precipiation was strong by the end of the week , now light to moderate but sparse in location!.

This is exactly what i said end of the week would happen and i was shot down for it , yes this is an amazing looking cold spell in the reliable timeframe but it's slowly looking drier and drier. We need that strong north east , east wind!

I agree entirely. I got shot down the last few days for suggesting that this cold spell looks like being quite average. Seems like some people only like posts that tells them what they want to hear..

Never the less I will still be enjoying this cold spell to the max and any snow how little will be most welcome

Edited December 14, 2009 by Jed Bickerdike

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

And the GME has been similar for a while now, with a clear reluctance to sweep the cold air south in the way still (and it must be said consistantly) being suggested by GFS.

Watch out for the ensembles to show the classic "sausage being eaten from both ends" downgrade. I don't want to be the only thing "bitter" about this cold spell so I hope not!

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

GFS predicts rain on Thursday.

It's not fair. I feel like a dog taunted with a chocie then has to sit and watch his master eat it.

I also expect the 12z ensembles to show the classic "sausage being eaten from both ends" speed downgrade.

We've had "favourable looking charts" for too long. It's all hype and no delivery.

[Snowyowl9]

GFS predicts rain on Thursday.

It's not fair. I feel like a dog taunted with a chocie then has to sit and watch his master eat it.

I also expect the 12z ensembles to show the classic "sausage being eaten from both ends" speed downgrade.

We've had "favourable looking charts" for too long. It's all hype and no delivery.

Too much of a slack flow this week with all these little shortwaves and no east wind to bring the cold air in yet

Wind today is from the NW and light.

Snow on thursday though when the cold air does come in.

http://www3.wetter3.de/Animation_12_UTC/66_30.gif

[Nights King]

There really is little to be happy about in west country apart from cold temps and more rain. Although i have not actualy seen a frost in the last week either!

Tricky dickys forecast of west country has left my hope hanging by a thread!

[MKN]

Im normally upbeat about situations like this, but here we have dreamland synoptics and by the looks of things the most snow i can hope for is around 2". I hope im wrong but i think for 80% of this board that will be about right. I just dont think the precip will be around to coincide which could well turn out to be some record low temps.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The only thing I have to whine about is that some people seem to be falling over themselves to find evidence of a downgrade of some aspect of the cold snowy spell, and if that approach fails, to then find evidence of a breakdown to leave us in mild drizzly SWs for Christmas.

Seriously, the upcoming synoptics could feasibly deliver some of the white stuff to any region of the country, but it is a certainty that some areas won't see much in the way of snow- that always happens. Even the severe winters of 1947 and 1963 did not have substantial snow cover nationwide- in both cases many western areas often had just a dusting. Similarly February 1979 was not a particularly snowy month in the Lancaster area, despite boasting many major snow events in most other parts of the country. Many parts of southern England had very little snow during the month of January 1984 despite repeated snowstorms from the north Midlands northwards.

Perhaps the general lack of snow since the 1980s has led to some having rose-tinted glasses and thinking the cold spells of the 1978-87 period were even snowier than they actually were.

Edited December 14, 2009 by Thundery wintry showers

[John Snow]

The GFS is an absolute train wreck in terms of my region, little if any snow, quick return to milder conditions, just awful

Hope UKMO and ECM are upgrades

[Wynn D Woo]

Looks like the usual story, an over hyped event with little in the way of snow or cold, especially in the SW again. Another blink and you will miss it cold snap

Whats more annoying is the weather seems wetter now in this area than when people were moaning about it last month, so much for the dry sunny frosty weather giving way to a bit of snow - more like wet and mild giving way to wet and cool.

Rant over

[Eugene]

Unbelievably some people on TWO want blowtorch SW'lys back, after the horrific scenes in cumbria with loss of life why the hell would they want TM airmasses back which give tropical rainfall and localised flooding to areas that don't need it, at least currently the rain/sleet is light and patchy and wont cause any deaths, geez i do wonder about people sometimes i really do

Edited December 15, 2009 by Eugene

[Snowfan50]

The rest of europe freezes and gets loads of snow and we get a few not that low temps and rain :unsure:.

[SLEETY]

The rest of europe freezes and gets loads of snow and we get a few not that low temps and rain .

Trouble is the easterly winds aproaching are'nt going to be around long enough,before they get pushed away,very frustating,all this hype for days and days and at the end it looks like a couple of very cold days with snow showers in the East.

Then it looks like any snow will be confined to the North and hilly regions in particular,so much for a return of the bitter spells of the 80s,nothing like it.

Unless i'm reading it wrong and inches of snow will fall with huge snowdrifts pilling up,just like the old days, no chance at all

[SP1986]

Unbelievably some people on TWO want blowtorch SW'lys back, after the horrific scenes in cumbria with loss of life why the hell would they want TM airmasses back which give tropical rainfall and localised flooding to areas that don't need it, at least currently the rain/sleet is light and patchy and wont cause any deaths, geez i do wonder about people sometimes i really do

I dont see the benefit of making people feel guilty over wanting something that can't be controlled. This is where respect for nature needs to be adhered to. As bad as the Cumbria floods where, it's no one's fault because it'll do what it wants to do, and no amount of policy making, saving strategy and finger pointing will help that cause.

[Nights King]

I dont see the benefit of making people feel guilty over wanting something that can't be controlled. This is where respect for nature needs to be adhered to. As bad as the Cumbria floods where, it's no one's fault because it'll do what it wants to do, and no amount of policy making, saving strategy and finger pointing will help that cause.

I agree with that people need to respect it but people could help themselves at times by looking into the geography of an area before they buy a house in a flood prone spot ect although i except it is not always easy.

It could rain for the next year every min of every day and i could guarantee that my house would not flood.

[Lake Effect Snow]

I can guarantee that if these charts were to materialise (as great as they look) then this thread will be bombarded with people moaning 'There's too much snow!' and 'It's too cold!'

[Mark Bayley]

Unbelievably some people on TWO want blowtorch SW'lys back, after the horrific scenes in cumbria with loss of life why the hell would they want TM airmasses back which give tropical rainfall and localised flooding to areas that don't need it, at least currently the rain/sleet is light and patchy and wont cause any deaths, geez i do wonder about people sometimes i really do

Wouldn't that be worse lol? (more rain, heavier) At least its just snow showers with this set up with more prolonged snow possible at times

UKMO not so good at T144, but who cares

[conor123]

So much for actually getting something tonight, had 20 minutes of rain then about 1 minute of snow before the precipitation simply vanished only to turn torrential south of us.