The Whining Thread

[Just Before Dawn]

I know and i am not writing them off just expressing my feelings that on yesterday eve runs and todays runs the SW seems to be a dapener for us in the SE and helps the peeps up north it is always the case that the north gets better snow chances than us but i wanted us to be the ones with the better chance this time but it is not to be. I will get cold i said that but i will not get the sort of snow i used to get in my childhood. I was born in 63 so feel cheated when i do not get snow i am a child of the snow age. lol my dream would be to have an 87 senario again here that was a good year.

Don't write off your chances yet SQ1 - there are literally dozens of runs to go yet before this is nailed down and even if it does unfold as you fear, think about it in the long-term - all that snow and cold on the continent cooling it and the North sea down pretty rapidly - you are best placed of everyone to tap into that later in the winter. It might be short term pain for long-term gain.

[Snow Queen one]

Thanks for the support guys. Just looked at the 12z charts on NW and the cold looks to be coming in earlier than the last run so maybe all is not lost i still have three sledges fron when my children were young in the shed. lol been dying to use them to go shopping down the local tesco maybe this will be th eyear i can do that as the kids have left home and will not need them.lol

[MR EXTREMES]

Thanks for the support guys. Just looked at the 12z charts on NW and the cold looks to be coming in earlier than the last run so maybe all is not lost i still have three sledges fron when my children were young in the shed. lol been dying to use them to go shopping down the local tesco maybe this will be th eyear i can do that as the kids have left home and will not need them.lol

i feel your heartache many many years i waited for a real snow event perhapes its to soon to be thinking of 80s winter for us in the south or southeast,

just goes to show how much climate change has effected our winters but then again southern england is not really ment to be this cold,

perhapes it would be better if we never experienced 80s style winters then we would not know the difference lol.

[NorthantsSnow]

ECM is awful. It's morning run wasn't much better. It's not all going to go the way of the pear at the last minute is it?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

If ecm is correct,which after consecutive downgrades is favourite right now.We might as well all bugger off

to the whining thread becasue on that ecm there is no cold spell.Maybe some wet dandfuff tues in the SE then

the High just gets eroded very quickly (as darren bent said yesterday)and the jet comes over the top.

Now is the time to worry b/c its all over by fri on that,the wet dandruff that is.

I want a refund.

:lol: :lol:

[NorthantsSnow]

And it was only 1-2 days ago people were in love with the ECM model. And this is why some members urge everyone to be cautious and not get their hopes up. Still, the other models disagree. Will have to wait and see where this leads us....

Oh, come on. Surely if you're a lover of cold & snow and have been following the models over the past week or so, then you must have been pretty gutted as well when you saw today's ECM runs? Frankly I don't know how anyone of a cold snowy persuasion could not be!

Last night we had pretty much universal agreement on a solid Greenland High developing with progressively colder Ely/NEly winds feeding in over the UK. Tonight it's a very different story.

Edited December 10, 2009 by NorthantsSnow

[January Snowstorm]

It happens every year, that's why I rarely post anymore

I mean what is the point looking beyond 5 days when they change totally nearer the time

It seemed too good to be true and sure enough it likely is too.

The ECM would leave us in cold frosty weather with a risk of coastal flurries.

T'would bore ya to tears & I must confess it's turning me off weather as a whole.

The worst point of all is this high pressure could easily hang around in the wrong place and spoil Christmas also

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ECM is awful. It's morning run wasn't much better. It's not all going to go the way of the pear at the last minute is it?

Im afraid its beginning to look like it might be.

I have no idea what ecm has picked up on to take away the artic air but whatever it is i wish it would bloody

drop it!

Anyway,i had concerns this morning,all i need now is 3000000 always happens in the christmas pudding type posts.

[MR EXTREMES]

yep game over never mind i think sooner or later people will forget the models lol.

and go back to the good old days of just watching the weather on tv.

i must admit i had a bad feeling about this its so easy to get sucked into the excitement this is the uk people global temps are near 1c higher now global and theres a el nino thats not even peaked yet this will happen very soon.

so im writing off winter now gh is not likely to be the holy gral for us.

all the hype of this winter coming and this cold event has just proven that its not possible in this era.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

still FI but trend is there now id say for a typical christmas pudding cold spell, 12Z GFS cold but has way more high pressure around now than yesterday, 18Z will be trending very much towards ecm,

A week id say of cold frosty foggy stuff, then slowly turning mild from friday 18th with high pressure to our west, but still a week or more rest from the wet

[Roadrunner]

I'm not exactly writing winter off but i know the feeling well. Really thought this would be the one and i keep looking for answers as to why the ECM has gone pear shaped. Is it struggling for lack of similar synoptics for December? Who knows. All i know is i try to keep a level head but it's so hard when stunning charts appear run after run. It's my fault but i told everyone were in for snow and now i'm gonna look like an idiot! Typical let down again. Don't know why i expected anything else. Model watching is definately bad for your heath. Off to you tube to watch Ian Mccaskill's Feb 1991 forecast to cheer me up.

[Wynn D Woo]

If this cold spell turns out to be nothing special and typical of recent times then I can see IB getting a lot of converts....the next 12-24hrs are going to be critical on the model runs.

[Nick L]

I'm not exactly writing winter off but i know the feeling well. Really thought this would be the one and i keep looking for answers as to why the ECM has gone pear shaped. Is it struggling for lack of similar synoptics for December? Who knows. All i know is i try to keep a level head but it's so hard when stunning charts appear run after run. It's my fault but i told everyone were in for snow and now i'm gonna look like an idiot! Typical let down again. Don't know why i expected anything else. Model watching is definately bad for your heath. Off to you tube to watch Ian Mccaskill's Feb 1991 forecast to cheer me up.

After experiencing that several times I now have a golden rule. Never tell anybody about it until all 3 models are in significant agreement of a wintry spell within 72 hours!

[dogs32]

I think Im to positive a person with events so Ive decided to be negative,,

This is my statement

The Fat Lady Is about to sing

[PersianPaladin]

I think Im to positive a person with events so Ive decided to be negative,,

This is my statement

The Fat Lady Is about to sing

I've tied her up in the chair and put a gag on her mouth...for now.

[Mark Bayley]

Some ridiculous posts in here but oh well, ECM goes against what Most of the models are saying. UKMO, GFS op (however it was close) GFS parallel (which has been very consistent) GME which again is doing very well and the GFS ensembles are also very good. The ECM also goes against the most of the teleconnections as well, check GPs post in the model thread. The ECM may well be right, but its certainly the lower chance as things stand!

Funniest post in here is the one writing off winter!

So my whine is people being to negative!

Edited December 10, 2009 by mark bayley

[Roadrunner]

I think Im to positive a person with events so Ive decided to be negative,,

This is my statement

The Fat Lady Is about to sing

What the hell has Susan Boyle got to do with the weather? Lol.

[NorthantsSnow]

Some ridiculous posts in here but oh well, ECM goes against what Most of the models are saying. UKMO, GFS op (however it was close) GFS parallel (which has been very consistent) GME which again is doing very well and the GFS ensembles are also very good. The ECM also goes against the most of the teleconnections as well, check GPs post in the model thread. The ECM may well be right, but its certainly the lower chance as things stand!

Funniest post in here is the one writing off winter!

So my whine is people being to negative!

Mark, I see you've been here since 2006 like me. Together we've witnessed countless disappoints in the models. It's very easy to get disheartened from tonight's output and fear the worst is about to happen given past experiences. I wish I could remain upbeat like you but frankly it hasn't got me anywhere in the past!

One silver lining tonight is a cracking GME. But it's hardly the creme de le crem of weather models. I'd trade it in for a good ECM any day of the week.

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rgme1321.gif

Edited December 10, 2009 by NorthantsSnow

[Methuselah]

I've tied her up in the chair and put a gag on her mouth...for now.

Very sensible, PP!

[Mark Bayley]

Mark, I see you've been here since 2006 like me. Together we've witnessed countless disappoints in the models. It's very easy to get disheartened from tonight's output and fear the worst is about to happen given past experiences. I wish I could remain upbeat like you but frankly it hasn't got me anywhere in the past!

One silver lining tonight is a cracking GME. But it's hardly the creme de le crem of weather models. I'd trade it in for a good ECM any day of the week.

http://www.wzkarten....cs/Rgme1321.gif

I do agree with you, however odds do not favour the ECM. I think people just jump to much on one run and take them literally. We should know by the end of tomorrow if this is going the way of the pear. But for the moment things still look favourable for a pretty decent cold spell! The ECM has also chopped and changed over the past few days. The ECM is also not an invincible model which is the impression I'm getting tonight off some people, its by sure the best of the big three imo. But that does not been it can't go through bad stages!

I regard the GME quite a good model, certainly the best of the lower models. It also seems to be quite consistent recently as well.

Edited December 10, 2009 by mark bayley

[Solar Cycles]

Some ridiculous posts in here but oh well, ECM goes against what Most of the models are saying. UKMO, GFS op (however it was close) GFS parallel (which has been very consistent) GME which again is doing very well and the GFS ensembles are also very good. The ECM also goes against the most of the teleconnections as well, check GPs post in the model thread. The ECM may well be right, but its certainly the lower chance as things stand!

Funniest post in here is the one writing off winter!

So my whine is people being to negative!

I like this post! Mods can we have thread for those who are of the glass is half empty please!!

[dogs32]

What the hell has Susan Boyle got to do with the weather? Lol.

I thought people would like to know she is going to be number1 for xmas...take there mind off the current situ

[Nights King]

That is it i am going to the pub to wait for an upgrade! Maybe i will find one in the bottom of my glass.......

Just hope the locals don't ask me how the cold spell is coming!

[Neilsouth]

Hence the reason i was going to wait till friday , poor poor poor

[conor123]

No surprises that the big freeze has downgraded to 3-5c anticyclonic gloom with the -10 uppers ALWAYS staying a week away.

Usually case of the freeze going into Europe while we get rubbish.