Friday 13th / Sat 14th Storms

[MAF]

Hey guys,

Looking very windy this weekend, i agree that its more of a "Southern event" in terms of rainfall, but i don't agree in respect to the highest wind speeds, i think East Anglia/East Mids/Lincs/Yorkshire will record the highest wind gust, i'm going for 74mph spurn point

i reckon 68 around isle of wight area :lol:

[Coast]

Friday night into Saturday could well be fun for some.

[Iceberg]

Looking at the latest GFS.

I would expect sustained winds of 60-65 mph near Western Coasts, particularly Wales and Cornwall.

Over high ground sustained winds of 50 mph are possible over the SW, Wales and west of the Pennies Friday night.

With LI down to -1 and some reasonable instability and high shear I would expect 925 winds to easily reach the surface as 30-60 second gusts.

Giving 30-60 second gusts of 70 mph maybe 75mph over high ground.

5-10 second gusts could be higher than this maybe 80-85mph.

I would really fancy the marathon platform, the south Wales coast to reach between 80-90 mph gusts.

What I am unsure about with this feature is the best way of now casting with it, it won't have the classic Leaf/dry sectors, nor pronounced cold fronts, if anybody can help with this it would be appreciated.

Deeper strengthening could occur particularly with a strong 500 flow of 120Kts shooting up the west country and central southern England late friday evening, shear will be very high and the potential for gust fronts etc will be strong.

[johnholmes]

What I am unsure about with this feature is the best way of now casting with it, it won't have the classic Leaf/dry sectors, nor pronounced cold fronts, if anybody can help with this it would be appreciated.

Deeper strengthening could occur particularly with a strong 500 flow of 120Kts shooting up the west country and central southern England late friday evening, shear will be very high and the potential for gust fronts etc will be strong.

try using the theta-e charts in the NMM model out to T+36 or the msl-dewpoint charts on the Extra version.

They do give an idea of the moisture and heat content of the system.

As to tracking it, then use Meteo as a 'guide' for its movement over 3 or 6 hours for an idea of its track, and if you understand isollobars(sorry I'm not being rude but don't know your depth of meteorology) to try and see where its movement is likely.

I'll try, if I have time, to do a blog on its movement.

[Zenarcher]

For Friday Night Into Saturday Also Showing Monday.

Friday Night,

Saturday Morning,

Saturday Afternoon,

Also Looking Ahead To Monday,

Pressure Chart For Saturday Also Includes Rainfall,

The same as above but for Monday,

I will update this on Friday.

[johnholmes]

a quick preliminary post before any blog, see the link below

[Iceberg]

try using the theta-e charts in the NMM model out to T+36 or the msl-dewpoint charts on the Extra version.

They do give an idea of the moisture and heat content of the system.

As to tracking it, then use Meteo as a 'guide' for its movement over 3 or 6 hours for an idea of its track, and if you understand isollobars(sorry I'm not being rude but don't know your depth of meteorology) to try and see where its movement is likely.

I'll try, if I have time, to do a blog on its movement.

Thanks John the Isallobars are a good idea, I've not used them for awhile so will need refresh myself where I can get them from etc.

[johnholmes]

this site, when it is working, is best for the UK

http://www.weatherwe...ions/3huka3.gif

the standard station circle plot with the change in pressure shown to the right

the Meteo charts may sometimes show them but not that often and even on the large scale N Atlantic its often almost impossible to read them-so not that many places with the site I've given above about the best for the UK, like I say, when its operating; even then its not unusual for the Irish obs to be mostly missing.

Of course if you wish, every 3 hours one can get the actual coded weather reports from, I'll come back with that link, I think one of them is OGIMET?

this is the one but you can only get countries separately and nothing I can find yet for the North Atlantic

http://www.ogimet.com/synops.phtml.en

there is the Australian weather centre which publishes charts with or without isobars for all parts of the world and it does show pressure changes-forgot its link-back in a tic

here it is

http://www.australianweathernews.com/current_AWN_charts.shtml

or

http://www.australia...arts/EUNW00.GIF

Edited November 12, 2009 by johnholmes

[Coast]

You can follow the storm as it heads in from the Atlantic, by pointing at the individual buoys on this interactive map:

www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/United_Kingdom

In each set of buoy data, you will also see links to shipping reports in that area for wind and pressure.

[Iceberg]

Thanks John the Aussie ones will be very useful (it's shame they run on data that seems to be 18hrs or so old) but still very useful.

[johnholmes]

You can follow the storm as it heads in from the Atlantic, by pointing at the individual buoys on this interactive map:

www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/United_Kingdom

In each set of buoy data, you will also see links to shipping reports in that area for wind and pressure.

true Coast; it is another source of data-sadly a number of them have not reported for some time though.

nevertheless, using a variety of data sources one can, if one has time, along with sat piccs, build up a fairly good idea of where a major low is and its probable track.

[Lewis]

Is it just me? but looking at the pressure charts and the gfs, when the low pressure pushes away, the isobars really tigthen around my area, and i mean really tighten. But why does the GFS not "show" the strongest wind gusts over me, is it due to my location and the track of the winds?

[Polar Bear]

Now I am a man that loves storms but I am right in thinking that sailing from Portsmouth to St Malo at 9pm on Friday 13 might not but the best move ever?

because that is what I will be doing

Tom

Hi tom, I have a feeling your ferry ( I assume you are taking the ferry and not sailing over) may get cancelled...or is that just the Isle of Wight ones?

Shipping forecast may shed a little light....at the mo though for thursday there is a Force 8 warning for the Wight and Portland http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~Portland

That reminds me how best to listen to shipping forecast - which radio channel?

PB

true Coast; it is another source of data-sadly a number of them have not reported for some time though.

nevertheless, using a variety of data sources one can, if one has time, along with sat piccs, build up a fairly good idea of where a major low is and its probable track.

I like Magicseaweed site aswell as it tracks the swell - (always a sailors warning is the swell out to sea - big swell on coast, storm out to sea) ...although not sure how accurate the data is and John you maybe better at the advice on this than moi.

Did anyone notice how very very calm it was this morning on the coast this morning? not a leaf russling in any breeze.

Hi tom, I have a feeling your ferry ( I assume you are taking the ferry and not sailing over) may get cancelled...or is that just the Isle of Wight ones?

Shipping forecast may shed a little light....at the mo though for thursday there is a Force 8 warning for the Wight and Portland http://www.metoffice...ml#All~Portland

That reminds me how best to listen to shipping forecast - which radio channel?

PB

I like Magicseaweed site aswell as it tracks the swell - (always a sailors warning is the swell out to sea - big swell on coast, storm out to sea) ...although not sure how accurate the data is and John you maybe better at the advice on this than moi.

Did anyone notice how very very calm it was this morning on the coast this morning? not a leaf russling in any breeze.

I am getting carried away now but this article is interesting.. I may go off to the sea and see if I can see the swell direction......

http://magicseaweed.com/Swell-Quality-Content/1163/

[Iceberg]

Here's the METO forecasts for Wind (at least for the SW anyway).

The length of time that the wind will be with us is notable, as is the 70mph gusts that the computer generated pictures are showing (I would have thought that these be used as general means rather than maxes for prone areas(exposed and high ground).

[Polar Bear]

Here's the METO forecasts for Wind (at least for the SW anyway).

The length of time that the wind will be with us is notable, as is the 70mph gusts that the computer generated pictures are showing (I would have thought that these be used as general means rather than maxes for prone areas(exposed and high ground).

Thanks for this chaps. I just remembered my parents are in Padstow, cornwall at the moment and due to drive back to chichester saturday. Both are in their 70s, so I think it maybe prudent to advise them not to drive home Saturday morning?.....

[Harry]

Here's the METO forecasts for Wind (at least for the SW anyway).

The length of time that the wind will be with us is notable, as is the 70mph gusts that the computer generated pictures are showing (I would have thought that these be used as general means rather than maxes for prone areas(exposed and high ground).

Interesting - IoW for Friday night forecasting gusts to 74mph (officially "hurricane" strength unless I am mistaken - though of course appreciate references to hurricane windspeeds are those which are sustained). Quite widely for the SE, 40s and 50s gusts forecast, with coastal areas inc IoW anywhere from 58-74mph.

Could be an interesting night - especially as I am expected to be out in London....!!!!

[pyrotech]

try using the theta-e charts in the NMM model out to T+36 or the msl-dewpoint charts on the Extra version.

They do give an idea of the moisture and heat content of the system.

As to tracking it, then use Meteo as a 'guide' for its movement over 3 or 6 hours for an idea of its track, and if you understand isollobars(sorry I'm not being rude but don't know your depth of meteorology) to try and see where its movement is likely.

I'll try, if I have time, to do a blog on its movement.

Try floodwarn.co.uk for watching its movement, It has real time live weather reports from many parts of the country and river web cams on some major rivers.

Along with netweather of course who have expert opinions and reports from users.

Floodwarn actually forecast this and risk of flooding as far back as 5th November in the forum on the site.

Regards to wind i think Mondays storm could be as bad if not worse than the Friday / Saturday one.

Think this weekend could cause misery for many people regards to flooding and damage. Lets hope no injuries or fatalities from it.

[Coast]

For real time coastal tide, wave height and wave period information (including sea temps), this site covers most of the Southern half of the UK in an interactive map where you can click through to a specific location:

http://www.channelcoast.org/data_management/real_time_data/charts/

[johnholmes]

Try floodwarn.co.uk for watching its movement, It has real time live weather reports from many parts of the country and river web cams on some major rivers.

Along with netweather of course who have expert opinions and reports from users.

Floodwarn actually forecast this and risk of flooding as far back as 5th November in the forum on the site.

yes I am aware of your web site but, no insult intended, I prefer to use my own professional analysis from the data sources I've mentioned to monitor and try to predict the movement of weather systems.

[Coast]

You 'little' beauty! :lol:

[Iceberg]

Cape and LL shear is looking more and more promising particularly from Friday lunchtime.

[03jtrickey]

Wow, what an exciting period of weather we're about to enter! For me, this is what Autumn's about. I'm looking forward to tomorrows winds. I hadn't realised there was potential for tornadoes today. That will be one to watch. Currently raining moderately. This has the potential to be one of the windiest days Gloucestershire has seen for at least a year - gusts to 57mph are predicted by the MetOffice, and 62mph by Accuweather. Extreme by my standards. Then there's the rain, squall and gust front risk

[Coast]

A quick round up of current MetO advisories for tomorrow:

Advisory of severe or extreme weather

South West England: Bath + NE Somerset Bournemouth Bristol Cornwall & Isles of Scilly Devon Dorset N Somerset Plymouth Poole S Gloucestershire Somerset Swindon Torbay Wiltshire

London & South East England: Brighton + Hove E Sussex Hampshire Isle of Wight Portsmouth Southampton W Sussex

Wales: Blaenau Gwent Bridgend Caerphilly Cardiff Carmarthenshire Ceredigion Conwy Gwynedd Isle of Anglesey Merthyr Tydfil Monmouthshire Neath Port Talbot Newport Pembrokeshire Powys Rhondda Cynon Taff Swansea Torfaen Vale of Glamorgan

There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of Wales and southern England on Friday. Heavy rain is expected to spread northwards, accompanied by strong to gale force south to southwesterly winds, with gusts of more than 60 mph in exposed areas. Rainfall totals of 20-40mm are likely, and in upland areas 50-75mm could occur locally.

Issued at: 1053 Thu 12 Nov

Virtually the same thing applies for Saturday (which includes The East of England) and Monday.

[Harry]

Interesting features on the latest MetO map - areas of enhanced rainfall breaking away at the rear of the front.

Something which might be worth keeping an eye on.

[dogs32]

very heavy rain here now for the last hr or so..

at this rate would expect some flooding to occur on some roads.

Dont you just love this stormy weather

edit

A46 Gloucestershire - Flooding on Merrywalks both ways at Rowcroft Retreat, in Stroud

Edited November 12, 2009 by dogs32