Friday 13th / Sat 14th Storms

[mettalfabrik]

hi all the EA take on things http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/news/113215.aspx?

after this afternoons episode at 1345-1430 here in south somerset looks like we could really in for it.hardest rain and wind i have had for sometime ,rain horizontal could,nt see across the road for the spray being blown along really quite violent for those 45 minutes

[Lewis]

Thought I woud make a thread for this coming weekends storm, and the potential.

I know theres another thread, but it seems as if everyone is from the south of the country and people away from the south that try to get in with discussion cannot seem too.

So this thread is for folks further North.

Going by the GFS it looks very nasty for the E Midlands, Yorkshire/Lincs and NE england. With wind speeds possibly topping 65mph or higher in exposed areas.

What are you guys expecting? Do you have any concerns with the possibility of more heavy rainfall falling on already saturated ground.

Remember this is not just a southern event.

Lewis

Edited November 12, 2009 by Lewis

[sunny scunny]

Good idea about another thread mate Disappointing rainfall amounts so far this evening here, but some heavier rain to my SW which will hopefully make it's way over soon

[Lewis]

Good idea about another thread mate Disappointing rainfall amounts so far this evening here, but some heavier rain to my SW which will hopefully make it's way over soon

Yeah thanks mate,

I dont mind joining in all the thread discussions, but sometimes its good to be close to the people around you area, of course its only obvious that a majority of the memberbase on this site are from the london area and down south, it's just good once in a while to have an un-biast thread with people in your own back garden.

I think maybe Paul should make sections in the forums, for example, South East and East Anliga, South/South west , Wales and the NW , Midlands, Yorkshire/Lincs, Central N england and North east.

That way we can all discuss the weather in our areas, instead of having to filter through all the posts that are not related to our location.

Back on subject, i reckon the precip will slowly fizzle out now. Tomorrow looks interesting tho cant wait

Edited November 12, 2009 by Lewis

[coldfingers]

Gusting to 36 knotts down here this evening, noting special so I am looking forward to more interesting weather tomorrow and Saturday.

Actually I shouldn't moan, as for our part of the Channel coast we appear to be expecting gales for days ahead now. Looking a bit hairy for Cornwall though on Fri/Sat Look our for more horizontal rain down that way.

Someone earlier wondered whether it would be a good idea for their elderly parents to drive back to Chichester on Saturday. I would suggest they don't leave until later on Saturday, if they must travel, as there will be very strong cross winds on the way back.

Edited November 12, 2009 by coldfingers

[on the coast]

A Northern Thread. Like it. Yep looks like it could get very nasty up here too on Saturday.

Could get nasty.

[Cookie]

gusting 48 mph here at the moment, typical Autumn night

Edited November 12, 2009 by cookie

[Lewis]

It was a northern thread until someone moved it...

Not even told why or whom moved it..

lol, what a waste of typing.

[shuggee]

It was I Mr Lewis!

We don't need a plethora of threads for a bit of wind and rain. Let's keep it all together nicely

[Mondy]

Bit of wind and rain - lol. Pretty much sums it up, hehe

[sunny scunny]

There's some torrential rain just to my south currently.

[Lewis]

It was I Mr Lewis!

We don't need a plethora of threads for a bit of wind and rain. Let's keep it all together nicely

No problem mate sorry for wasting your time.

There's some torrential rain just to my south currently.

Can clearly see the intense echo now mate just pushing into your area now. I'm a little further North so it's a miss for me.

The direction the precipitation is moving, one would think it will fizzle out, or either give me 10 mins of rain, with likes of you mr SUFC getting a dumping lol!!

Edited November 12, 2009 by Lewis

[Mondy]

With all the weather warnings going out for the system coming in, I'm surprised this thread isn't jam-packed with contributors. Maybe it will just be a damp-squib.

[Mondy]

[dogs32]

Rob MC from the BBC weather going for more long intense rain tomorrow with some flooding With already saturated ground followed by 70 mph winds..

Rain heaviest Wales and South West

still pouring here at present

Edited November 12, 2009 by dogs32

[Polar Bear]

Gusting to 36 knotts down here this evening, noting special so I am looking forward to more interesting weather tomorrow and Saturday.

Actually I shouldn't moan, as for our part of the Channel coast we appear to be expecting gales for days ahead now. Looking a bit hairy for Cornwall though on Fri/Sat Look our for more horizontal rain down that way.

Someone earlier wondered whether it would be a good idea for their elderly parents to drive back to Chichester on Saturday. I would suggest they don't leave until later on Saturday, if they must travel, as there will be very strong cross winds on the way back.

Hello coldfingers

Hows my favourite Bognor now? In Brighton and gusts seems to have picked up abit more now., It was my parents and thanks for the tip, my sentiments exactly. wonder if they will listen though?

I checked Chimet earlier and just outside the harbour it is getting a little stronger.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

GFS 18z going for 50knt winds for Cornwall for Saturday morning. Anyone care to have a guess at the maximum gust if that comes to fruition ?

[MAF]

GFS 18z going for 50knt winds for Cornwall for Saturday morning. Anyone care to have a guess at the maximum gust if that comes to fruition ?

this was my guess yesterday

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/57464-friday-13th-sat-14th-storms/page__view__findpost__p__1611738

think i will stick with that

[PB22]

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn369.html

http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn429.html

The way things are shaping up I wouldn't be surprised to see gusts in excess of 80MPH on Saturday morning for the exposed areas of the southwest. The potential is there for some severe conditions.

[pyrotech]

Well certainly not a downgrade from GFS for this system at 1800hrs. Looks pretty intense still and perhaps a upgrade in terms of rainfall for some areas in the South West.

Timing of the winds seem to peak a little later on this run for Wales 6am - 9am rather than 3am - 6am as shown earlier. Is this a sign of it stalling a little and would that give it a little more energy before it reaches us.

Swell is increasing at the Buoy a few miles off the cornish coast.

Can see this forum going crazy in next 24 hours.

[pyrotech]

I still expect this to deepen a little further and give sustained winds of 55knts and a gust somewhere like Mumbles of 87knt

Hope i am wrong as i am quite attached to my garden fence, roof and trees.

[Zenarcher]

A quick update on the 18z.

From Net Weather,

Saturday

6am

9am

12pm

[Jane Louise]

I hope your lucky and get to see some lightning this year...

Certainly heavy earlier....flood reports were comming in fast.

No more at the moment apart from a minor landslide somewhere.

Lots more to come according to the weather

Jane there is some flooding around Staverton

edit...Chepstow landslide around a railway line

Hi dogs,

It all seems quiet for now! I am not sure whether we will see a storm overnight. But I'm sure somebody is going to catch one in the next couple of days.

I bet Tewkesbury gets flooded again. Is the flooding bad in Staverton?

[pyrotech]

Mumbles has a weather recording station and gusts are not typical for the surrounding areas, something to do with the topography so if others get about 77mph you can often add another 10+mph for Mumbles. Its seen some extraordinary gusts like 92mph in 2002. Perhaps 87mph is more realistic but what the hell its got the potential to be a super storm and depending on the track 92 mph is possible in a gust. So against all sensibility, and "throwing caution to the wind" i am sticking with my 95mph, 87knts.

BRAVE, STUPID BUT FUN

[dogs32]

Hi dogs,

It all seems quiet for now! I am not sure whether we will see a storm overnight. But I'm sure somebody is going to catch one in the next couple of days.

I bet Tewkesbury gets flooded again. Is the flooding bad in Staverton?

I dont know Jane...

The reports were from earlier...

Forest of Dean had a hail storm and high winds around 17.00...

Was told there was alot of water about..

Radio as mentioned further flooding in areas for tomorrow evening...

Though they dont expect a reapeat July 2007 at this stage but a few areas might get caught out with all the rain today and rain for tomorrow predicted.

Edited November 12, 2009 by dogs32