Convective Outlook

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Bearing in mind the forcing dynamics apparently behind an ANA cold front - isn't it to be expected that the system is currently intensifying as it hits the higher ground/hills through the western side of the country and that as it moves inland to lower inland levels that some (relative) weakening of the system might occur as it moves further and further SE?

With that in mind. and without wanting to pre-empt anything, and I could easily be wrong of course about what I am saying, but it occurs to me that the 'severe weather potential'(if that is what you are hoping for!) is greater for some SE areas, particularly towards to the coast, after the front later tomorrow than during it.

Although from a personal point of view I much prefer my storm activity in the summer - and will be very pleased and relieved if this corner of the world escapes entirely !!

Edited November 24, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Harry]

Bearing in mind the forcing dynamics apparently behind an ANA cold front - isn't it to be expected that the system is currently intensifying as it hits the higher ground/hills through the western side of the country and that as it moves inland to lower inland levels that some (relative) weakening of the system might occur as it moves furhter and furher SE?

With that in mind. and without wanting to pre-empt anything, and I could easily be wrong of course about what I am saying, but it occurs to me that the 'severe weather potential'(if that is what you are hoping for!) is greater for some SE areas, particularly towards to the coast, after the front later tomorrow than during it.

Although from a personal point of view I much prefer my storm activity in the summer - and will be very pleased and relieved if this corner of the world escapes entirely !!

With regards storm potential tomorrow, that certainly appears to be the consensus at this stage - risk of thunderstorms tomorrow, with some maybe even bearing severe characteristics - all associated with two troughs expected to appear and then transfer E throughout the morning and into the afternoon.

The T word being banded around a bit, though I think things will be a bit clearer tomorrow.

[dogs32]

Pretty rough here too dogs!! Couple of things have blown over out in the street. I presume this is just the start!

lol...Jane I think some places will get it worse than other's

Pretty scary outside at times even though it's not here yet...

Seems to me its intensifying as it moves East

[johnholmes]

true enough I don't think I've ever seen anything quite like it-certainly a sequence to save

[Jane Louise]

lol...Jane I think some places will get it worse than other's

Pretty scary outside at times even though it's not here yet...

Seems to me its intensifying as it moves East

Going out to the garden in a minute to see if everything is still intact lol. I thought I heard thunder but I think it's just the wind roaring (damn)

[littlemissy]

It's still very stormy in Wellington.Not as stormy as it will be in Wales but still quite impressive .

[Harry]

Going out to the garden in a minute to see if everything is still intact lol. I thought I heard thunder but I think it's just the wind roaring (damn)

I'm getting conned too JL - though its bone dry with the squall well over a hundred miles away (nearer two), the wind keeps "boooming" every now and again against the houses....drat! Still fun though.

Update - wind is seriously strong here - sooo wish I had an anomometer!!!!

Edited November 24, 2009 by Harry

[The watcher]

I have never seen a squall line like that either, very defined, and indeed it will certainly strengthen as it progresses. I'll go for 2 reported tornadoes, one of these bordering a T5, one in Central England (the weakest) and one in the SE (the strongest).

[Harry]

I have never seen a squall line like that either, very defined, and indeed it will certainly strengthen as it progresses. I'll go for 2 reported tornadoes, one of these bordering a T5, one in Central England (the weakest) and one in the SE (the strongest).

Gehhhh!!! Can I be a nimby???? There's me saying "at least we don't get that here"...could you imagine - fast asleep and you lose your roof, or worse??

[Cookie]

A fair few members in here 2nite, hope everyone stays safe tonight

[PeterDoswell]

car alarms . wind roaring . 70mph gust expected according to bbc as squal moves through but very quick and intense . over pretty quick too

[A.J]

Patiently awaiting the squall. Winds still gusting into the mid-high 40s so a very gusty night indeed. By the time the line hits, winds should easily be reaching mid 50s, though I'm hoping for a good deal higher than that. Gotta say, pretty impressive Radar images..a nice defined line with bow-type features. I can only imagine what the conditions are like underneath it.

I'll let you know in about 5 mins!....Its almost here...White echos on the radar now...

[Skelly]

Really starting to pick up now.. Just been out in the garden, took down the bagoda and locked the Chickens in... I guess its getting close now..

[yamkin]

torro talking about a possible ( T4 ) tornado tomorrow

Metcheck have released a Special Update with an Updated Severe Weather Warning along the same lines of Torro's Severe Weather Forecast.

[hobbielancie]

Anybody under the Squall got any wind speeds recorded yet?

[weatherobsuk]

Just had the squall pass here North of Buxton, Wasnt really too eventful, just some moderate rain with the occasional gust accompanying it. Its hit and miss for many areas so I wasnt too disappointed I didnt get to see much, at least I'll get to see the temperature change in the coming few minutes and passing hour. Keeping a eye on the NW Radar and reports anyway. Bow-Line and LEWP signatures are still around with this Front.

[Harry]

This version of the NW radar picks out the squall far clearer IMO than the other two

What an exciting 24 hours coming up.

[Neilsouth]

Like a mini hurricance outside , love it LOL

[Harry]

Like a mini hurricance outside , love it LOL

It's not just me then - it is bloody strong out there!!

[West Sussex Kate]

I'm staying up but it looks like a long way off yet some have said it will clear kent by 1am...but i cant see that right now!

Edited November 24, 2009 by Westsussex1

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I have never seen a squall line like that either, very defined, and indeed it will certainly strengthen as it progresses. I'll go for 2 reported tornadoes, one of these bordering a T5, one in Central England (the weakest) and one in the SE (the strongest).

Thanks for that destructive prediction (or was it a wish? lol!)

I do hope you are wrong of course!

[snow raven]

Wind really picking up here with some strong gusts - when is this squall to hit London/NW Kent?

[dallas]

Well first night shift tomorrow so will see what turns up, got railway behind house so everytime i hear a roar have to check

[West Sussex Kate]

*dum question* but what is the rough speed this kind of thing travels.is it like 100s of mph ? *dum*

Edited November 24, 2009 by Westsussex1

[Nick F]

I'm staying up but it looks like a long way off yet some have said it will clear kent by 1am...but i cant see that right now!

IMO more likely to clear Kent around 6am - as per NW convective forecast ... though could be an hour or so before this. 18z GFS seems to clear the cold front between 06z and 09z.