Model Output Discussion

[MR EXTREMES]

I have a feeling Cough Ian Brown cough will be thinking his luck is in by the view of these dreadful charts imo

oh please dont i was hoping he would be wrong,

but to be honest i never really expected to much from december.

then again the hype of winter 09/10 is makings of a forums full of dissapointment.

still theres january and feb yet.

the models have been throwing alot of eye candy at us,

and if your a cold lover you cant help but you clutch at the setups offered,

but this morning they turned the corner inregards to model mess,

and now none are favouring anything exciting.:)

[Mark Bayley]

yep not good signs now this was to be expected typical el nino december coming up kiss white christmas goodbye 100% cert of that.

dont need a crystal ball either to see where the start of winter is heading.

I don't really understand comments like this. The models don't look great for cold in the short term. Longer term their showing huge potential as we head into the second part of December with all that blocking around (as many of the more experienced members such as JH, GP etc... keep highlighting! Whether or not it can deliver us cold remains to be seen. The charts don't look typical El nino to me, nor do they show 100% no white Christmas!

[snowmadchrisuk]

I've long suspected that the UKMO and ECM models are twins, Siamese ones probably...

Yep the main positives out of today are the MJO moving towards phase 7 again , The Gfs is good , The Gfs ensembles are trending colder again, and it is currently Snowing in Scotland.

[chionomaniac]

I've long suspected that the UKMO and ECM models are twins, Siamese ones probably...

I suspect the data fed into both is very similar, if not the same.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

oh please dont i was hoping he would be wrong,

but to be honest i never really expected to much from december.

then again the hype of winter 09/10 is makings of a forums full of dissapointment.

still theres january and feb yet.

the models have been throwing alot of eye candy at us,

and if your a cold lover you cant help but you clutch at the setups offered,

but this morning they turned the corner inregards to model mess,

and now none are favouring anything exciting.:)

probably more hope than expectation, but I think a chance of high pressure dominating from mid dec, even if mild really wanna see it, ensembles seem to be trending towards HP near the UK

[Frosty.]

Dreadful 12z ECM! Just like the UKMO, it blasts away the block and we're in a southwesterly hell!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0

Karyo

Cheer up, we still have the gfs 18z to look forward to

[MR EXTREMES]

I don't really understand comments like this. The models don't look great for cold in the short term. Longer term their showing huge potential as we head into the second part of December with all that blocking around (as many of the more experienced members such as JH, GP etc... keep highlighting! Whether or not it can deliver us cold remains to be seen. The charts don't look typical El nino to me, nor do they show 100% no white Christmas!

and do you think there right?,

of coarse they may well be,

but id not bother hoping on anything past 7 days let alone 14 or 20 days.

something is very much kicking up the energy in the alantic,

and if we get pressure rise mid month even if its mild,

which i think we wont happen,

but if we do whats the good in that.

and the models have been showing for a longtime there is possible cold but nothing ever happens.

i think typical el nino atmosphere,

i dont take to much notice of the cfs chart because if they where that accurate met o would use them.

its in my opion that el nino years are mostly dominated by alantic driven weather,

add in extra stuff like the climate of the last 10 years = wet windy and mild with the odd arctic topler.

the met office recently have been pretty accurate with there medium term forecast,

so what ever model there using id think this is the best model to follow.

Edited December 1, 2009 by badboy657

[swilliam]

It is quite entertaining flicking through the ensemble members and looking at some of the incredible charts that are appearing in FI. My favourite is the one below which is from member number 10 at + 276.

It shows extensive 1050mb blocking from Scandi to Greenland + a Bartlett high???????

Oh dear - I should haven't joked about northern blocking and Bartlett highs!!

Edited December 1, 2009 by swilliam

[Mark Bayley]

and do you think there right?,

of coarse they may well be,

but id not bother hoping on anything past 7 days let alone 14 or 20 days.

They might be or they might not be, no one can say for certain. We are in a better position this year (for example check out the stratosphere thread which is an interesting read). The NAO and AO are also trending negative, the AO especially so! Although they don't always lead to cold (for us). There are other factors such as the MJO (which was moving towards phase 7 from what i read on here ?? ) and the jet stream trending south. I wouldn't rule anything out towards the festive period. As things stand though we are in better position than we have been other years!

I wonder were Nick is? Probably manning the phone lines

Edited December 1, 2009 by mark bayley

[karyo]

Oh dear - I should haven't joked about northern blocking and Bartlett highs!!

I know, what an unrealistic chart! The ECM looks shakey in FI but I am pleased that it doesn't continue with the southwesterly hell scenario! It must show that there are many conflicting signals that make the models struggle!

Karyo

[keithtod43]

Metcheck are you saying sleet and snow for the south of uk for saturday with easterly winds .what model output do they use to come up with that forecaste?

[snowlover2009]

people on here make me laugh so hard. one mild ecm and that means the next 2 weeks look likely to be mild and that means no white xmas. get a grip people, people on here tell the cold lovers not to get there hopes up on cold charts, why don't i just tell you people saying that it will be mild to actually not get your hopes up too, if the ecm is what you are looking for. oh my word!!!!

[TEITS]

Well i've just looked at the 12Zs and then after reading some of the posts on here I had to check the models again.

Some silly posts on here especially those who are already writing off Dec.

We might not have any significant cold spell being shown within the reliable timeframe but the potential certainly remains. If you look at the +192 charts you can clearly see the models continue to prog a weak split PV which is in stark contrast to what we usually experience at this time of year.

Personally I feel its only a matter of time before this N blocking becomes established and we see LP systems track SE allowing the bitter arctic airmass to filter S/W. I continue to believe that a significant cold spell is on the horizon and the period im looking at is around 11-13th Dec. Infact im going to say that this coming Dec will be one that will be talked about for many years.

Keep your eyes out for the PV to be underneath the HP towards our NE. There will be an astonishingly cold airmass on the SE quadrant of this HP and I believe this airmass will reach our shores. Go and check the archives for Jan 1987 because I believe a similiar synoptic set up is coming soon!

[Frosty.]

Metcheck are you saying sleet and snow for the south of uk for saturday with easterly winds .what model output do they use to come up with that forecaste?

In a parallel universe maybe.

The ecm seems to have imploded after offering a lot of promise recently but it just shows how much all the models are struggling.

[snowlover2009]

and do you think there right?,

of coarse they may well be,

but id not bother hoping on anything past 7 days let alone 14 or 20 days.

something is very much kicking up the energy in the alantic,

and if we get pressure rise mid month even if its mild,

which i think we wont happen,

but if we do whats the good in that.

and the models have been showing for a longtime there is possible cold but nothing ever happens.

i think typical el nino atmosphere,

i dont take to much notice of the cfs chart because if they where that accurate met o would use them.

its in my opion that el nino years are mostly dominated by alantic driven weather,

add in extra stuff like the climate of the last 10 years = wet windy and mild with the odd arctic topler.

the met office recently have been pretty accurate with there medium term forecast,

so what ever model there using id think this is the best model to follow.

oh come on! how many times have we also seen mild periods in FI and actually come out as cold. it does happen you know. just because theres an el nino doesnt mean it will keep us mild. do you have crystal ball or something? because the way i see it, not one model have actually shown anything consistent, they are all over even the ukmo. ecm had a classic winter set up tonight, it has wet and zonal weather. what does this tell you!

im really desperate for you to explain to me why it looks like we won't get a white xmas! that is one crazy post, considering nothing is certain, far from it and its only the first day of bloody winter!!! whats unrelaistic is these silly posts, writing off the whole of the month over one bleeding run.

Edited December 1, 2009 by snowlover2009

[phil nw.]

ECM like the other 2 back away from the trough digging SE into Europe.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Thus the flow more from the South West as the trough reorientates E to W and further North.

This would certainly postpone any cold set up for a while if this pattern developed next week.

The models still showing High pressure building later to the North as the Trough regresses.

As Nick S. said earlier this would be the long way around to a cold setup and much could go wrong in the meantime.

So many variations on a theme at the moment.

[Fozfoster]

Well i've just looked at the 12Zs and then after reading some of the posts on here I had to check the models again.

Some silly posts on here especially those who are already writing off Dec.

We might not have any significant cold spell being shown within the reliable timeframe but the potential certainly remains. If you look at the +192 charts you can clearly see the models continue to prog a weak split PV which is in stark contrast to what we usually experience at this time of year.

Personally I feel its only a matter of time before this N blocking becomes established and we see LP systems track SE allowing the bitter arctic airmass to filter S/W. I continue to believe that a significant cold spell is on the horizon and the period im looking at is around 11-13th Dec. Infact im going to say that this coming Dec will be one that will be talked about for many years.

Keep your eyes out for the PV to be underneath the HP towards our NE. There will be an astonishingly cold airmass on the SE quadrant of this HP and I believe this airmass will reach our shores. Go and check the archives for Jan 1987 because I believe a similiar synoptic set up is coming soon!

OMG

[Snowstorm1]

Well i've just looked at the 12Zs and then after reading some of the posts on here I had to check the models again.

Some silly posts on here especially those who are already writing off Dec.

We might not have any significant cold spell being shown within the reliable timeframe but the potential certainly remains. If you look at the +192 charts you can clearly see the models continue to prog a weak split PV which is in stark contrast to what we usually experience at this time of year.

Personally I feel its only a matter of time before this N blocking becomes established and we see LP systems track SE allowing the bitter arctic airmass to filter S/W. I continue to believe that a significant cold spell is on the horizon and the period im looking at is around 11-13th Dec. Infact im going to say that this coming Dec will be one that will be talked about for many years.

Keep your eyes out for the PV to be underneath the HP towards our NE. There will be an astonishingly cold airmass on the SE quadrant of this HP and I believe this airmass will reach our shores. Go and check the archives for Jan 1987 because I believe a similiar synoptic set up is coming soon!

[KTtom]

Well i've just looked at the 12Zs and then after reading some of the posts on here I had to check the models again.

Some silly posts on here especially those who are already writing off Dec.

We might not have any significant cold spell being shown within the reliable timeframe but the potential certainly remains. If you look at the +192 charts you can clearly see the models continue to prog a weak split PV which is in stark contrast to what we usually experience at this time of year.

Totally agree with TEITS on this one, of all the years model watching this has to be one of the most interesting times I have seen. There may not be any model showing a Jan ;87 at the moment, mind you some of the ensembles are'nt far off, but its hell of alot closer than the mass of PV we usually get this time of year to the north. Interesting model watching even if we don't hit oil (sorry Nick, pinched it!)

[chionomaniac]

The current scenario is rather like chopping a tree down. Don't expect it to fall at the first few chops. One may have to return a number of times before the tree is felled.

I see that the GWO is on the move tonight with perhaps negative mountain torques developing.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/gcm/gwo_40d.gif

The CFS OLR forecast is quite promising for weeks 2-3:

By my reckoning this could push the MJO to around phases 7/8 at that time and if the GWO is better phased by then, as GP has intimated, this may be the time for NE height rises.

Patience

c

PS TEITS 1986/87 is my favorite analogue comparison year to this year. (Solar min, -ve QBO El Nino year)

Edited December 1, 2009 by chionomaniac

[MR EXTREMES]

oh come on! how many times have we also seen mild periods in FI and actually come out as cold. it does happen you know. just because theres an el nino doesnt mean it will keep us mild. do you have crystal ball or something? because the way i see it, not one model have actually shown anything consistent, they are all over even the ukmo. ecm had a classic winter set up tonight, it has wet and zonal weather. what does this tell you!

im really desperate for you to explain to me why it looks like we won't get a white xmas! that is one crazy post, considering nothing is certain, far from it and its only the first day of bloody winter!!! whats unrelaistic is these silly posts, writing off the whole of the month over one bleeding run.

nearly every el nino winter in the uk is milder and wilder and wet than a none nino winter,

its not crazy post its my opion.

maybe i am writing of december,

and i also in the strong opion that winter is not going to be as exciting as some may think.

ofcoarse ive already said cold snaps do happen even in el nino winters but mostly from passing low pressure systems that rarely stick around for weeks on end,

but sometimes drag down brief arctic cold snaps.

but if you talk about siberian cold ie like we experienced in the 1980s then id like to see when we had a another event like this in the last 10years?

because either ive been in a coma or its not happened,

im not trying to ruin peoples input and thoughts im trying to be as realistic as possible,

im also not trying to provoke outrage either, its likely a cold snap is waiting on tomorrows or fridays model outputs if this happens then great i hope it does.

i love the cold so if im wrong i dont care im just favouring the form horse even if it does fall at the first hurdle and breaks its leg,

but ive experienced no exciting cold nino years in winter through out my whole 34years of my life.

[weather eater]

ECM like the other 2 back away from the trough digging SE into Europe.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Thus the flow more from the South West as the trough reorientates E to W and further North.

This would certainly postpone any cold set up for a while if this pattern developed next week.

The models still showing High pressure building later to the North as the Trough regresses.

As Nick S. said earlier this would be the long way around to a cold setup and much could go wrong in the meantime.

So many variations on a theme at the moment.

1 step forward, 2 back, or the other way round.

[phil nw.]

12z ens. for Warks.

http://charts.netwea...arwickshire.png

Op. run close to the mean and trending a little milder early next week.

Surprisingly quite a number of runs close together going well forward in view of the recent model somersaults.

Edited December 1, 2009 by phil n.warks.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Keep your eyes out for the PV to be underneath the HP towards our NE. There will be an astonishingly cold airmass on the SE quadrant of this HP and I believe this airmass will reach our shores. Go and check the archives for Jan 1987 because I believe a similiar synoptic set up is coming soon!

Just to show what you mean , it took 12 days to go from where we are now :

To get to this :

Also Just to add to that , Good old Roger Smith has photos of Snow in Southern England during the above spell here : http://davidburrin.fotopic.net/c810883. Also it was the coldest in Southern England since 1740 .

An Interesting quote from a very good article here : http://theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=libgen&id=1503

"The interesting thing about the cold spell is the poor performance of the forecast models even up to +72 hours, O.K. computers are better now but I still think they would struggle with a similar chain of events."

Edited December 1, 2009 by snowmadchrisuk

[Lincs Observation]

quote from the eye

Personally I feel its only a matter of time before this N blocking becomes established and we see LP systems track SE allowing the bitter arctic airmass to filter S/W. I continue to believe that a significant cold spell is on the horizon and the period im looking at is around 11-13th Dec. Infact im going to say that this coming Dec will be one that will be talked about for many years.

I agree Dave in fact the other day i mentioned that as an unqualified observer, i felt that a mid 80,s set up is in the offing and i think i said as a foot note to my post that something special was afoot, however if it all goes belly up we both can hold a flame for past winters

LO